|
MPW
Apr 23, 2022 20:23:29 GMT
Post by bb2 on Apr 23, 2022 20:23:29 GMT
This thing is dropping. I've seen that others here own it, or did at least, so I thought I'd post. Beware, folks. I sold it in Feb after yet another negative article - just didn't want to own something so reliant on private equity owned hospitals. And then there's the 3 corporate jets. That drive for profit vs. healthcare seemed a bit of a stretch, though that's not necessarily why Jeffries downgraded it. $20 PT. This is not a universal take on MPW, as others like it still. (I have a habit of watching stocks after I sell for a possible buy back in.) seekingalpha.com/news/3825757-medical-properties-stock-slips-after-jefferies-downgrades-to-hold
|
|
|
MPW
Apr 24, 2022 0:37:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by graust on Apr 24, 2022 0:37:13 GMT
I own it presently and like that it’s exposure to hospitals, as opposed to senior living/skilled nursing/etc. like many healthcare REITs.
I had been buying shares in $19’s, and selling in $21-22’s…trading around a core position. I’ve definitely bought in the last few days as it’s sold off again. I looked to see if they had a stock offering (they didn’t) which often has explained sell offs in the last.
Once we get past COVID-constrained healthcare spending (many elective surgeries were delayed, people didn’t go to the doctor as often, etc.), I think hospitals will be in a good spot in the healthcare ecosystem.
|
|
|
MPW
May 1, 2022 17:26:09 GMT
Post by bb2 on May 1, 2022 17:26:09 GMT
Humm. Popped after the call but at EOD tanked on twice the pop volume. EBITDARM - non-GAAP measure. Obfuscating language, IMHO, if you read the call but accounting isn't a strength. Watching for education purposes.
WSJ has fooled me before with negative articles only to be followed by glowing-ness. AMD, case in point.
Edit: Also a bit concerned by all the nursing strikes. Google something like, "nursing costs hurting hospital profits".
Stanford just got a 7% raise followed by 5% next year. I guess insurance premium raises will cover it somehow.
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 2, 2022 15:23:16 GMT
Post by bb2 on Jun 2, 2022 15:23:16 GMT
Slide continues for MPW. Two REITs I bought early Feb, NRZ and VICI are up YTD. Housing and Vegas. Both were strong buys in the Brad Thomas letter, so I bought after a little work. Brad still has a strong buy on MPW, (PT $27), so I'm still watching for a possible buy. I've not bought because of the negative news, (I think healthcare should be non-profit-ish) and staffing costs and accounting tricks like EBITDARM, excluding management fees, which is just not right. And again, the three jets. Private equity deals. A little too much going on with this company. Short interest is pretty high for a REIT and there's sort of a war on between Hedgeye, (short), and MPW. So far the shorts are winning. I should add that Brad can sometimes be smitten with managements; something to watch for with all analysts. Brad bought more MW at $17.61 recently. A month ago, Brad was "backing up the truck"....... seekingalpha.com/article/4505933-whos-buying-medical-properties-trust
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 3, 2022 21:23:47 GMT
Post by bb2 on Jun 3, 2022 21:23:47 GMT
One more thing. I have a golf buddy who's business is hospital billing/government stuff. Don't really understand it. Asked him yesterday how hospitals were and he said not good. They have to give back the covid money the gov paid them in advance that they didn't spend. It was never theirs but still hard to give back. Not to say they can't pay the rent though.
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 7, 2022 12:25:59 GMT
anitya likes this
Post by richardsok on Jun 7, 2022 12:25:59 GMT
EXCERPTS FROM AN ARTICLE IN TODAY'S WSJ: Which investments have done best in past periods of high inflation?
"Shares in real-estate investment trusts or companies in the real-estate industry are not the best option. Stocks in the materials and energy industries outperform all others by a long shot ….. We ...examined how the median stock in each industry, in terms of returns, performed during three periods of surging inflation.
The median real-estate stock delivered a 3.32% annualized return over the three periods, far below the annualized returns of 18% for the median energy company and 16.81% for the median materials company.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, healthcare (including pharmaceuticals) performed the worst."
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 7, 2022 14:10:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by chang on Jun 7, 2022 14:10:44 GMT
On the opposite end of the spectrum, healthcare (including pharmaceuticals) performed the worst." Thanks, I just bought a big hunk of Roche, and was thinking of buying Novartis, Sanofi, and Novo-Nordisk. I did sell FSPHX, though, and don’t plan to rebuy it.
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 7, 2022 17:21:28 GMT
Post by anitya on Jun 7, 2022 17:21:28 GMT
On the opposite end of the spectrum, healthcare (including pharmaceuticals) performed the worst." Thanks, I just bought a big hunk of Roche, and was thinking of buying Novartis, Sanofi, and Novo-Nordisk. I did sell FSPHX, though, and don’t plan to rebuy it. Curious if you are holding the biotech fund(s)?
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 7, 2022 18:46:06 GMT
Post by bb2 on Jun 7, 2022 18:46:06 GMT
Steering a bit OT, here.
|
|
|
MPW
Jun 7, 2022 22:56:54 GMT
via mobile
anitya likes this
Post by chang on Jun 7, 2022 22:56:54 GMT
Thanks, I just bought a big hunk of Roche, and was thinking of buying Novartis, Sanofi, and Novo-Nordisk. I did sell FSPHX, though, and don’t plan to rebuy it. Curious if you are holding the biotech fund(s)? You mean XBI? Good lord, no! I sold that (way too late) at $110, capturing a nice profit but missing the top by a lot. What a train wreck.
|
|
|
MPW
Aug 3, 2022 21:24:55 GMT
Post by bb2 on Aug 3, 2022 21:24:55 GMT
Missed it near $14 but am interested again. See how it behaves the next few days after today's 4% drop to near $16.
|
|
|
MPW
Oct 14, 2022 18:15:15 GMT
Post by bb2 on Oct 14, 2022 18:15:15 GMT
Wow, just saw this turd went to $10. 11 now.
|
|
|
MPW
Nov 27, 2022 18:14:35 GMT
Post by bb2 on Nov 27, 2022 18:14:35 GMT
To xray : Do you know why MPW is down 45% YTD and OHI is up 4%?
And what's with all the Form 4 (D) code filings on OCt 4, 2022?
MPW is more of a PE outfit and not necessarily in a good way.
My REIT letter author, Brad Thomas currently has a strong buy on MPW - he's been wrong since his buy suggestion back at $22, FV of $26.
|
|
|
MPW
Nov 28, 2022 2:39:54 GMT
Post by bb2 on Nov 28, 2022 2:39:54 GMT
Wouldn't trust MPW management as far as I can throw a hospital bed. Just my opinion. Nor would I buy a tobacco stock,so, if you want MPW dividend, go for it. Good luck.
|
|
|
MPW
May 25, 2023 1:04:02 GMT
Post by bizman on May 25, 2023 1:04:02 GMT
Here's a pretty brutal takedown of Medical Properties Trust, MPW, and the Ponzi like games being played with Cerberus, et al, by Maureen Tkacik in The American Prospect (hat tip to Eddy Elfenbein). Quackonomics: prospect.org/health/2023-05-23-quackonomics-medical-properties-trust/Makes a guy wonder what other nakedness may be revealed as the liquidity tide rolls out in private equity related areas involving real estate, whether through stupidity and/or fraud. By the way, Brad Thomas has recently endorsed MPW in this article dated 5-18-23, less than a week ago. That guy couldn't find his rear end with both hands, IMO. From Thomas's article: "In my view, and our team agrees with me, MPW is a freaking bargain buy, and the only reason we downgraded the company to a Spec Buy is to telegraph the likelihood of a dividend cut (coin toss).
Thus, upon further review and analysis, I’m putting more capital to work and increasing my stake with MPW, recognizing that dividend “could” be cut.
As I see it, if MPW were to lose 20% of its customer base (by closing facilities), our healthcare system would be in utter turmoil.
Politics aside, I don’t think any lawmaker would want to be responsible for shutting down hospital systems that save lives. If that happens, rest assured, I will be running for Congress, and who knows, maybe President of the United States.
So in summary, the probability of an MPW dividend cut is elevated, and the probability that hospitals will close is unlikely. Ignore the media and focus on fundamentals."
What's The Probability Of A Dividend Cut For Medical Properties Trust? - By Brad Thomas seekingalpha.com/article/4605525-whats-the-probability-of-a-dividend-cut-for-medical-properties-trust
|
|
|
MPW
May 25, 2023 18:15:14 GMT
Post by bb2 on May 25, 2023 18:15:14 GMT
Yea, I read that bit in prospect.org, a sordid tale if there ever was one, and posted it on Seeking Alhpa, where a number of bulls wrote it off as more short nonsense. After being on SA for a few months, there are a lot of idiots on that site. (And yes, Brad has been so wrong all the way down from mid 20's. I stopped his letter, which had some useful data, after subscribing for a couple years.
I also asked a question of an SA MPW analyst: Why does MPW own med properties in UK, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Finland, Columbia. One flippant reply from a commenter was one word - diversification. I asked why international diversification made sense in this business and never got an answer. All I can figure is management wants an excuse for free travel, as they've proved themselves to be quite selfish. (3 Company jets) Dealing with so many jurisdictions must weigh on resources and can't be profitable. Who knows. US holding make up 60% and bring in 70% of revenues.
Prospect, a 20% client of MPW, got a lifeline the other day, with MPW taking a piece of their managed care biz, the worth of which is undisclosed. This was supposed to be good news for MPW but the stock price slide continued.
What I can't figure out is why does MPW overpay for properties regularly. How can they be in business still? How long can this 15% div last? The conference calls can get contentious with the analysts and either the speech to text is terrible or management intentionally speaks unintelligibly. I'll never know enough about real estate or financial reports to figure this company out at all.
BTW, medical property ownership in the US: Kaiser 43B Welltower 33B Ventas 27B Hospital Corporation of America $21.5B Ascension Health Alliance $21B
MPW under 5B
Thinking MPW is more of a drag on healthcare than a benefit to society.
|
|
|
MPW
May 25, 2023 19:11:52 GMT
Post by bb2 on May 25, 2023 19:11:52 GMT
bizman credited Eddy for his discovery of the prospect but didn't include the link to the thread on Eddy's twitter account, which is very interesting. This Big Bang site treats links in a way I've figured out yet. If you think the Eddy thread is just what appears here, google "Eddy Elfenbein - Maureen Tkacik is one of my favorite writers" for a link to the full thread.
----- -----
|
|