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Post by Fearchar on Oct 19, 2021 18:52:58 GMT
errr; did those experts compare bank reserves between now and then?
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 20, 2021 2:29:00 GMT
The trick is to use 2-3 indicators/signs because there's a lot of noise and very little to do. FD1000 , OK, what are the others? VIX and ?. That's my proprietary system that I developed over the years which I posted, but you had to pay attention while most never did.
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Post by chang on Oct 20, 2021 5:14:53 GMT
When the VIX gets really high, there's a decent rationale for taking some chips off the table. On the other hand, when the VIX gets really high, that’s arguably when one should consider buying. “Be greedy when others are fearful,” Warren likes to say. My best successes have happened when buying into market fear. Obviously, there can be — usually is — some volatility, so the success might not be apparent until some time later. Many roads to Dublin, naturally.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Oct 20, 2021 14:57:16 GMT
When the VIX gets really high, there's a decent rationale for taking some chips off the table. On the other hand, when the VIX gets really high, that’s arguably when one should consider buying. “Be greedy when others are fearful,” Warren likes to say. My best successes have happened when buying into market fear. Obviously, there can be — usually is — some volatility, so the success might not be apparent until some time later. Many roads to Dublin, naturally. No surprises on my viewpoint. I'm with Chang here. When the VIX begins to rise so in my cash allocation to deploy when the VIX becomes 'fearful'. - RM
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Post by xray on Oct 20, 2021 17:45:38 GMT
Your: 1... When the VIX gets really high, there's a decent rationale for taking some chips off the table. 2... On the other hand, when the VIX gets really high, that’s arguably when one should consider buying.
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Contrarian viewpoint [sinle opinion of course]....
1... Many of us do not follow the VIX but do follow our excel worksheets very closely. Taking some chips off the table is always considered a wise thing to do when a securities MktPrc is considered "over-valued" against our current analysis numb3rs . However, always however's, "Over-valued" has many different meanings to many different types of investors. Bottom Line: Capturing the CapGains is never a bad thing to do [again IMHO]....
2... Again, many of us never follow the VIX. We have found "mixed results" [if/when considering buying and following the VIX] when trying to time the market and not following our excel worksheets which are considered "accurate analysis date" vs VIX [our emotional data reacting to the market] again IMHO....
Comment: A good way to evaluate our thinking of using the VIX is a analysis by investors to analyze their past BUY/SELL actions "against" the high/low VIX numb3rs. If passing this test, then we have been making some very good correlations, if not we need to start thinking "outside the box". In my particular case, using the VIX has been shown to be counterproductive to using our excel worksheets....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Fearchar on Oct 20, 2021 19:54:15 GMT
As mentioned yesterday, the Market entered the Greed zone yesterday morning; reading was 62, where it closed.
The markets opened briskly today and the index rose to 68, but has cooled off to 66 as of this writing.
Still in the Greed zone.
It's been about 6 months since the markets were last in the Greed zone. It's also possible for the markets to continue in the Greed zone for several months too.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 20, 2021 20:25:51 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 20, 2021 20:37:47 GMT
September/October pullback over? This time DJ Transports led and who could guess that near September-end? Any Dow Theorists out there still? Link below from highs on September 2 (need to enter start date of 09/03/2021) LINK
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Post by ignatz on Oct 20, 2021 20:51:38 GMT
Broad market (Wilshire 5000) at all time highs at today's close.
SP 500 within a point.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 20, 2021 20:57:53 GMT
Another view of link above with Bitcoin added (replacing R2000; 5 chart limit). Seems that cryptos are in the driver seat now with major averages apparently correlated with Bitcoin. LINK
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Post by chang on Oct 20, 2021 21:25:44 GMT
How do you set up for a Bitcoin crash? Where do Bitcoin sellers flee to?
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 20, 2021 21:25:57 GMT
Broad market (Wilshire 5000) at all time highs at today's close. SP 500 within a point. Yes & the S&P Mid cap did close at an all time high. silver closed above a band of resistance as did Gold. WTIC closed at a 5 yr high. Transports continue to trend up to a 5 month high. 10 yr treasurey rates are also trending up and at a 5 month high. Bitcoin is within a hairs breadth of an all time high. To me, It looks like the market is overbought, especially with bitcoin being the apparent currencey of choice. jmho
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 20, 2021 21:27:47 GMT
How do you set up for a Bitcoin crash? Where do Bitcoin sellers flee to? Possibly gold.
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Post by ignatz on Oct 20, 2021 21:47:59 GMT
How do you set up for a Bitcoin crash? Where do Bitcoin sellers flee to? Possibly gold.
I wonder about that.
Bitcoin and the likes are a recent phenomenon. I wonder how many of the participants are of modest or less experience in markets and might be of such strong conviction (mania) that they'd ride it down 70 percent, forever saying "tomorrow, the slot machine handle gets another pull".
The so-called "weak hands" might well fold, but I wonder if they'd just lick their wounds and stay in cash rather than go with gold.
Can you short the various ETFs like ETHE, COIN, GBTC, or BITO? I've never been short anything.
Last wonder: when do we all capitulate and get on the crypto train? I can't imagine myself ever doing it and would instead wallow in CPI hell.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 20, 2021 21:55:55 GMT
ignatz : "Can you short the various ETFs like ETHE, COIN, GBTC, or BITO?" Among these, only ETF is a day old, BITO. COIN is a company - combo crypto exchange, broker, custodian. I got on that train a few weeks ago and I am usually late. GBTC & ETHE are funds with holding restrictions (but not OEF or ETF or CEF, but most CEF like). Grayscale wants to convert it into a physical-crypto ETF - good luck with that.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 20, 2021 22:00:15 GMT
Good points. I cannot disagree with you. Gold could very well be too "old school" to be attractive to the Bitcoin crowd.
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Post by ignatz on Oct 20, 2021 22:02:28 GMT
OK; a bit of Google implies to me that of those 4, ETHE, COIN and possibly BITO can be shorted.
?
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Post by jongaltiii on Oct 20, 2021 22:18:45 GMT
ignatz : "Can you short the various ETFs like ETHE, COIN, GBTC, or BITO?" Among these, only ETF is a day old, BITO. COIN is a company - combo crypto exchange, broker, custodian. I got on that train a few weeks ago and I am usually late. GBTC & ETHE are funds with holding restrictions (but not OEF or ETF or CEF, but most CEF like). Grayscale wants to convert it into a physical-crypto ETF - good luck with that. Smart investors should keep in mind that the new ETF is a futures based Bitcoin ETF. That’s an important distinction. Owning actual Bitcoin via an exchange or PayPal or Square is quite different. It will trail actual ownership of the crypto. www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-futures-highlight-some-pitfalls-new-etfs-2021-10-19/
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 20, 2021 22:29:54 GMT
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Post by jongaltiii on Oct 20, 2021 22:37:18 GMT
Good points. I cannot disagree with you. Gold could very well be too "old school" to be attractive to the Bitcoin crowd. Gold = Antithesis of Bitcoin to the “Bitcoin crowd” … The Great Debate: www.youtube.com/watch?v=coHC_9ApBdg
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Post by Fearchar on Oct 21, 2021 1:07:25 GMT
Here is a link to a study of the CNN Fear and Greed index that was completed last year by a "serious trader". www.marketnoise.net/2020/11/01/the-signals-of-fear-greed-index/and a follow-up study a few days by the same "serious trader". www.marketnoise.net/2020/11/05/the-composite-fear-greed-index/CONCLUSIONS: F&G Indicator does not provide particularly good entry or exit signals. GREED, which accompanies market tops can last for many weeks. EXTREME FEAR, with corresponding corrections & dips tends to be much shorter lived. Considering the long term bullish nature of the US market, this makes sense. Holding (Staying the course) appears to be the best course of action.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 21, 2021 16:40:52 GMT
The S&P 500 intraday charts look very vulnerable today. We shall see how the close goes, but I feel like I should be selling something. Utes look strong.
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Post by Fearchar on Oct 21, 2021 17:23:42 GMT
...., but I feel like I should be selling something. ahhh, the curse of the itchy! how about just make pretending and then tell us how it would have worked out?
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 21, 2021 22:12:33 GMT
...., but I feel like I should be selling something. ahhh, the curse of the itchy! how about just make pretending and then tell us how it would have worked out? I went shopping instead and just got back. If i had sold KMI, I would have saved most of a 6% loss, but I already knew that their earnings report was 2 cents below some peoples expectations. I had already decided and still believe that that is a buying opp, rather than a sell signal. Everything else was a routine mixed bag.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 2, 2021 20:45:10 GMT
We are all now into the "Extreme Greed" range of the market.
Current Reading is 78.
Safe Haven: Extreme Greed Junk Bond Demand: Extreme Greed Market Momentum: Extreme Greed Put/Call Options: Extreme Greed Stock Price Breadth: Greed Market Volatility: Neutral Stock Price Strength: Fear
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 2, 2021 20:46:46 GMT
78 is the highest reading this year!!!
Could stay this high for a month, maybe three.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 2, 2021 21:27:03 GMT
There are some spots of high volatility that are not broad enough to move market indicators. Examples are the D J Transport index and PFE a Pharma corp.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 3, 2021 20:38:03 GMT
On the other hand, when the VIX gets really high, that’s arguably when one should consider buying. “Be greedy when others are fearful,” Warren likes to say. My best successes have happened when buying into market fear. Obviously, there can be — usually is — some volatility, so the success might not be apparent until some time later. Many roads to Dublin, naturally. No surprises on my viewpoint. I'm with Chang here. When the VIX begins to rise so in my cash allocation to deploy when the VIX becomes 'fearful'. - RM You need to define high VIX. 30-40-50 and what you do each time. The idea is to sell prior to crash and buy after a starting solid rebound. I don't mind being late to buy, only after I see a clear sign. Since I started to invest, including at retirement, I have been mostly invested at 99+%, and no cash. I only want to be in cash when risk is very high. This is why I was in 99+% cash before the crash of 2020 and at 100% invested in April 2020. I don't believe in cash over several thousands, including retirement (only in unique situations) but in asset allocation (without cash) to meet your goals. As long as risk isn't high, I keep changing my funds and asset allocation based on market conditions. It used to be all stocks funds and over the years changed to mostly bond funds.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 5, 2021 15:24:17 GMT
The Market is at 85 on the Fear and Greed index. That's another new high for the year.
None of the 7 indicators are in the Fear range.
2 are neutral: Market Volatility VIX at 15.18: Neutral Stock Price Strength 5% stocks hitting new highs compared to new lows: Neutral This is the most recent change as it was in the Fear range yesterday.
Stock Price Breadth; McClellan Oscillator at 7.16% is in the Greed range.
The remaining indicators are in the Extreme Greed Range:
Market Momentum: 7.65% above 125 day moving average Put/Call Options Ratio at 65.04% Safe Haven Stocks have outperformed bonds by 6.71% over the last 20 trading days Junk Bond Demand 1.83% premium over investment grade corporate bonds.
As noted earlier, this is not a market timing signal and it's entirely possible for these extreme greed readings to persist for several months. It's also possible for a few of the indicators to advance further into the extreme greed range OR the market could revert back into the fear range very quickly.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2021 12:48:06 GMT
At what point on the VIX would you consider it to be above nuetral?
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