|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 14, 2021 1:45:58 GMT
Interesting. My plan B is a one way ticket to Amsterdam. Maybe that’s plan C. 🥁🪘🤷🏼♂️
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 14, 2021 13:25:59 GMT
Using SPY/VTI, equities looked good 1993-2000 and 2003 to 2007 too. If one had a "bond" side then equities could have been replenished in "bad" years. Or I like to play around with BackTest. Using a $500,000 of various bond funds (PTY to BIV) and in between, the $500k produced $29k min. in income each year from 2011 to 2020 with less than 4% SD, with no down years, not including what equities gave you. Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 14, 2021 15:11:51 GMT
I won’t tell you what I generated over that time. I think human nature dictates a wait and see approach, why eliminate hand wringing and stress.
I guess I’ll wait to see what everyone does when/if they have to scramble. Seems there’s not much meaningful investing discussion on any board.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 14, 2021 15:48:48 GMT
Oh I realize there are many ways and your income would be much higher with 100% PTY, but at huge volatility. I just like investigating things.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. In the mean time watching PTY shoot up like a rocket...
|
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 15, 2021 17:24:17 GMT
Oh I realize there are many ways and your income would be much higher with 100% PTY, but at huge volatility. I just like investigating things. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. In the mean time watching PTY shoot up like a rocket... Well it seems the talking heads are pushing for a correction at least. PTY goes up and down constantly because of leverage. After 12+ years even buying at discounts my TR on CEF’s value wise is about 1% a year. It will not dip as far as an equity though under stress. That 500k you mentioned used to invest in CEF’s would net over 40k a year or more if bought at a discount. So maybe 5-600k for 10-12 years. I still don’t understand the fixation on volatility when VTI (3600 shares) plunged 36% during the bank crisis I think and PTY went down in the teens during Covid while bonds plus dividend stocks pay out squat compared to both and went down less. Give up thousands of dollars of income and the compounding somewhere so your portfolio won’t go down as much 3 years out of ten? I guess I play offense and most posters play defense drive 14 year cars, buy knock off phones and cheater glasses. Maybe if you face a permanent change in your current income needs and you’re scrambling around taking on more risk at 80 or spending down 10% a year you’ll understand. All I can say is I lived through it so I planned for it this time. Took the risk now, put the surplus in the markets mostly, am backing off the risk as we age, so I can then spend down the surplus or convert it in whole or part to CEF’s in the future if needed hopefully delaying spend down of any needed income. |
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 15, 2021 19:21:38 GMT
steelpony10, You make some sense to me. I plan to add to PTY on dips. My risk tolerance isn't the same as yours but increasing my dividend up to 4% or so would suit me. Maybe Amsterdam can wait. However, after seeing some of the bickering on this site and AC, Amsterdam might not be that bad. I'd rather that to fake polo shirts, well any polo shirts, actually.
|
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 15, 2021 20:33:43 GMT
rhythmmethod , Sorry I get tired of it also. I have to take a break. I’d just like to see what others do which doesn’t seem to be much beyond market timing, a factual poor investing technique.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 15, 2021 21:44:05 GMT
steelpony10 : Well I think many people worry about volatility and therefore get stuck in lower returns. The more I read online forums I find there are many folks that are afraid of equities and try to make it on bonds. I never owned a bond fund until 4 years ago and I accumulated for 40 years in equities alone so I know and am comfortable with great volatility. Now I am finding my way forward using bond funds of any type that looks like it makes sense also. I like having funds that I buy "cheap" to establish a good cost basis (accumulation habit I have). PTY happened to fit exactly into that logic for me and I thank you for that timely info. Just like you said: "baby steps". But I am OK as it is now living from my accumulated "cash" I set up for retirement. I won't need any of this IRA income where bonds and equities reside until RMDs start in 3 years. Add to that the possibility of doubling my portfolio through inheritance. So I am taking it a little slow as a 69yo youngster. While the bulk of my portfolio is B&H, I admit to trading small amounts in a couple of ETFs to fight boredom. I guess that is market timing but it's fun.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 15, 2021 22:08:41 GMT
steelpony10 , You make some sense to me. I plan to add to PTY on dips. My risk tolerance isn't the same as yours but increasing my dividend up to 4% or so would suit me. Maybe Amsterdam can wait. However, after seeing some of the bickering on this site and AC, Amsterdam might not be that bad. I'd rather that to fake polo shirts, well any polo shirts, actually. What is this about polo shirts? They are my fav.  And please do not start in on Aloha shirts either. |
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 15, 2021 23:39:07 GMT
Chahta , rhythmmethod , Golf shirts: sun protection, wicking and light weight maneuverability. There’s a reason I pushed equities to a secondary income and use souped up bonds mostly for primary income. Stagflation, flash crash, irrational exuberance, tech bubble, y2k, housing bubble, 9/11, the Great Recession, COVID, nattering nabobs of negativism. (financial crystal ball readers), the clown college (Fed’s), Facebook Community College….because the other (some) income keeps flowing in on a regular monthly schedule supplementing our SS.
|
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 16, 2021 0:27:43 GMT
steelpony10 , You make some sense to me. I plan to add to PTY on dips. My risk tolerance isn't the same as yours but increasing my dividend up to 4% or so would suit me. Maybe Amsterdam can wait. However, after seeing some of the bickering on this site and AC, Amsterdam might not be that bad. I'd rather that to fake polo shirts, well any polo shirts, actually. What is this about polo shirts? They are my fav. And please do not start in on Aloha shirts either. Don't get me started on your tee shirt. I think it says something like "You can smoke my butt, but stay away from my taxes"! 🙄 |
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 16, 2021 1:55:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 16, 2021 11:43:36 GMT
Interesting article on PTY written just before the bottom. The guy runs The Conservative Income Portfolio. I don’t know the definition of conservative or risk. All I know from experience, like self chosen allocation and diversification limits, it’s all means you probably make less income then many others, (because risk equals reward in the right hands) you probably live a worse lifestyle in retirement then others being too conservative and you still stress out because you still don’t know your future like others. I’d rather not cut my margin for error so close. I saw the results of that. Equities have always been more volatile and returns more unpredictable but more lucrative over time then any type of bonds. Of course I don’t know what volatile means either. All I know is income in excess to present needs keeps flowing in each month and that excess is auto invested and compounded for my unknown future if ever needed which is a lot less stressful. Never forget all investment strategies and methods have flaws including this one and mine. Sorry, morning coffee.😁 |
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 16, 2021 12:35:32 GMT
Chahta , steelpony10 , good article. I guess he was correct that they could drop. Good for us (I hope) that we bot some after the cut and drop. I’ve been playing with CEFs for several years and unlike my moniker entry is more important than exit. During the covid drop mine dropped harder than some of my equity, I get steelpony10 point however. Income in excess of needs with excess reinvested is an absolute. My current plan is to add on further drops (market timing, I guess)} until my CEF amount to about 5-7% of port value. That would lift my dividend to about. 4ish %, which is more than enough. Anyway, this is before morning coffee.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 16, 2021 13:08:22 GMT
Interesting article on PTY written just before the bottom. The guy runs The Conservative Income Portfolio. I don’t know the definition of conservative or risk. All I know from experience, like self chosen allocation and diversification limits, it’s all means you probably make less income then many others, (because risk equals reward in the right hands) you probably live a worse lifestyle in retirement then others being too conservative and you still stress out because you still don’t know your future like others. I’d rather not cut my margin for error so close. I saw the results of that. Equities have always been more volatile and returns more unpredictable but more lucrative over time then any type of bonds. Of course I don’t know what volatile means either. All I know is income in excess to present needs keeps flowing in each month and that excess is auto invested and compounded for my unknown future if ever needed which is a lot less stressful. Never forget all investment strategies and methods have flaws including this one and mine. Sorry, morning coffee.😁 LOL, I went to se his "Conservative Income Portfolio". It is "7-9% Yield With Low Volatility Using Cash Secured Puts & Covered Calls". Whatever, I ain't goin' there. Maybe VG will start a fund doin' that. |
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 16, 2021 14:55:45 GMT
Chahta, You should forward that article to FD. It might be interesting to see his comments. Right up his alley in a low yield brink of an equity disaster environment. A quick anecdote for you: Went out to eat yesterday at a college town restaurant population of 26k during the school year. Sitting with the retirees and townies I overhead one ask how many of the appetizers were included in the $10 price. The waitress replied 10. To which the geezer replied those are a dollar a piece! I thought “see the parents over there taking their little darlings out to dinner, that’s capitalism, we’re all caught in the same web”. 😤
|
|
