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Post by jongaltiii on Sept 8, 2021 17:14:15 GMT
Interesting Read... www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723"“The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn’t been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank’s global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote." "She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward “high-quality cyclicals,” particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking “consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.”" "Although Morgan Stanley remains “sanguine on the economic outlook,” with Shalett citing “solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,” the bank’s global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note." "Investors appear to be putting their “faith” in the Federal Reserve, with its “masterfully nuanced communications,” to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett." Fed Chair Jerome Powell “has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,” she wrote. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 8, 2021 17:23:32 GMT
jongaltiii , Did you ever notice it’s something else every day? How about adding or not.
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 8, 2021 17:29:46 GMT
Broken link, but copy-and-paste works.
In the current Barron's Outlook, SP500 range from 6 strategists was 4,225-4,825. The lowest number was from Morgan Stanley, the highest from Wells Fargo.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 8, 2021 17:52:48 GMT
Now we need a correction "greater than 10%"? Hope it's only 19.5% so it's not a bear.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2021 17:59:38 GMT
So I go up 14% ytd and now I will go down 15%. So net -3% for the year. Sad.
A correction of 10% happens every year. We have not had one since march so there is a good possibility that we will have one in next 6 months. Corrections lasts from few weeks to few months. Though recently they have lasted only couple of days because of all the BTD folks with cash out there waiting....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2021 18:04:13 GMT
So I need to keep my buy list ready. What is on your buy list?
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Post by Chahta on Sept 8, 2021 18:23:30 GMT
QQQ, QQQJ and couple of bond OEFs. Maybe a CEF.
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 8, 2021 18:26:14 GMT
So I need to keep my buy list ready. What is on your buy list? A LTC gift card for a friend whose brain is deteriorating quicker then mine. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 8, 2021 18:28:50 GMT
QQQ, QQQJ and couple of bond OEFs. Maybe a CEF. PTY today, the dust has settled. It can be put on reinvestment most places. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 8, 2021 19:19:51 GMT
QQQ, QQQJ and couple of bond OEFs. Maybe a CEF. I picked some up this AM. We'll see... |
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 8, 2021 20:33:32 GMT
PTY today, the dust has settled. It can be put on reinvestment most places. I picked some up this AM. We'll see... God help you then son.🤞🏼 You should have all your investment back in 10 years. (72/7-8). Of course payouts change periodically, up and down. PONAX went from 5,5%? to 3.6% and my muni has gone from 3.6% to about 2.7%. Nature of the beast. CEF’s are less volatile and less lucrative then equities more volatile and more lucrative then standard bonds because of the leverage. Not to hot and not to cold, just like the fairy tale. Investing is all about acting on Actionable Intelligence. That was some. Remember you asked the original question. The next 15% drop would be another example. |
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 8, 2021 21:18:22 GMT
Hi guys,
For me, I don't fear market pullbacks and downdrafts. Here is why.
With my all weather asset allocation of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) ... I'm thinking in a 10% market pullback since I'm 40% in equity that will leave me somewhere around 36% equity from my high water mark. On the fixed side since I hold about half in high yield thus I'll drop about half of what the equity side does leaving me at 38% from the high water mark in fixed. So, 36% plus 38% plus 20% puts me down overall somewhere around 6% from the high water mark. Now with my cash position at 20% from the high water mark I'll put somewhere between 25% to 35% of my cash in an equity spiff and ride the market back upwards rebalancing accordingly as the market moves upward. As I become equity heavy I'll rebalance during the updraft restoring cash and booking some profit along the way.
I've done this many times in stock market pullbacks and overall made money in the process.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 8, 2021 21:34:50 GMT
QQQ, QQQJ and couple of bond OEFs. Maybe a CEF. PTY today, the dust has settled. It can be put on reinvestment most places. Had to wait until tomorrow. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 8, 2021 22:29:50 GMT
PTY today, the dust has settled. It can be put on reinvestment most places. Had to wait until tomorrow. Baby steps. Maybe tomorrow is the 15% drop. The “before the end of the year” part is scary. 💰 |
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Post by roi2020 on Sept 8, 2021 22:43:15 GMT
"Since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 36 double-digit drawdowns.
That works out to one every other year or so on average.
So maybe we’re closing in on being due for a breather but these things don’t occur on a set schedule.""And if you plan on waiting for a correction it’s not only time you could be missing out on but massive returns.
There can be a massive opportunity cost if you’re wrong."
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
- Peter Lynch
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 8, 2021 23:26:35 GMT
The following are all from MSMS 2019 prediction( link): S&P 500 (^GSPC) essentially going sideways. Reality: SP500 was up 31.5%. That was just for fun, I can post more. APR 26 2021( link): Time is ticking on a 10-20% market correction in the next 3 months. June 8th 2021( link): There will be a 10% correction in the S&P 500 by the end of 2021. JUL 19 2021 ( link): Morgan Stanley says a 10% to 20% correction is ahead Aug. 17, 2021,( link): Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 could drop over 10% before the end of the year. Reality: MS doesn't have a clue But hey, I know exactly what is going to happen, I just don't know when. The SP500 will go down 10%, it will also go down 30%...sometimes in the future. BTW, How many jobs do you know with such a bad record as markets analysts/experts...and still keep their job? I know one for sure, the weatherman
I have a name for all these predictions: Fata Morgana( link) ============= I don't have a list, when I see a real bargain, I will buy. That bargain can be a stock, ETF, CEF, other ============= oldskeet : For me, I don't fear market pullbacks and downdrafts. FD: I want pullbacks, wait, I want a real meltdown, I'm talking at least 50%. The more it goes down, while I'm out in cash, the better it is. I'm usually invested at 99+% but close to zero in real pullback. I already tested it.
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
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Post by galeno on Sept 8, 2021 23:37:46 GMT
Whatever the decline we will rebalance from our TWBM UCITS ETF to our TWSM UCITS ETF.
On Jan 7th.
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Post by steadyeddy on Sept 9, 2021 2:06:21 GMT
Some "catalyst" is needed for institutions to take money off the table and cause a correction. The real question is: what could that catalyst be? The pandemic? geo-political event of some sort? Nobody knows.
I got the right AA and also have dry powder if/when the correction happens. Good luck y'all !
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 16, 2021 14:47:49 GMT
Apparently the catalyst is the good news that the consumer is strong and boosting the economy along. With the latest CPI report showing inflation running at 5.3% annually, further boosts in the economy should build a fire under the fed to increase their taper efforts. That would be bad news for stocks. So we are in that phase of the economic recovery where further good news for the economy is bad news for stocks. At least that is what the market is telling us this morning.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 16, 2021 16:04:20 GMT
I predict that stocks will 1. go up for various reasons. 2. go down for various reasons 3. stay the same for various reasons. Setting an allocation works in all situations. Stupidly simple. Yet difficult to implement for tinker-types. (Myself included)
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Post by Chahta on Sept 16, 2021 16:21:12 GMT
Most forecasts are kinda like social media. Noise to hear themselves talk.
But RM's forecast is right on.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 16, 2021 17:35:55 GMT
Most forecasts are kinda like social media. Noise to hear themselves talk. But RM's forecast is right on. Are you saying that anytime anyone makes a post on this social media site that we are just making noise to hear ourselves talk? I like to post my thoughts for 2 reasons, the 1st is that writing things out helps me to organize or complete my thoughts. The 2nd is that hopefully I will get some feedback that is helpful to myself or others. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 16, 2021 18:24:25 GMT
Most forecasts are kinda like social media. Noise to hear themselves talk. But RM's forecast is right on. Are you saying that anytime anyone makes a post on this social media site that we are just making noise to hear ourselves talk? I like to post my thoughts for 2 reasons, the 1st is that writing things out helps me to organize or complete my thoughts. The 2nd is that hopefully I will get some feedback that is helpful to myself or others. Valid uncleharley, but IMHO (and all the humble stuff) whenever forecasts supersede allocation in terms of implementation, it's basically a trip to the roulette table. |
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Post by Chahta on Sept 16, 2021 22:23:16 GMT
Most forecasts are kinda like social media. Noise to hear themselves talk. But RM's forecast is right on. Are you saying that anytime anyone makes a post on this social media site that we are just making noise to hear ourselves talk? I like to post my thoughts for 2 reasons, the 1st is that writing things out helps me to organize or complete my thoughts. The 2nd is that hopefully I will get some feedback that is helpful to myself or others. No, it was a (not very clear) joke. I was referring to the media talking heads and RM's "cover all bases" forecast. Next time I will smile when I say that.  |
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 16, 2021 22:44:24 GMT
That is what I thought and I agree that the pundits have to have something interesting to say for a certain number of minutes and the writers are obligated to write a certain number of column inches regardless of what is actually going on. icons are cool |
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