TIPRanks

[Fearchar]

Does anybody here use TIPRanks?

www.tipranks.com/

If so, I'm curious to know how useful actual users have found it and if any users are on these boards.
Does anybody here have a paid membership?
If so, how long and how have you been using it?

They have 3 levels; Basic, Premium and Ultimate (Free, $30 and $50/mo)
TD Ameritrade Customers have access to their system too and there may be other brokers as well.

Basically, what they do is rank the thousands of Analyst, Guru's and public Investors.
All in all this is a great concept!

There are currently 7,641 Analyst who are assigned between 0 to 5 Stars.
Each has their Success Rate and Average Returns calculated.
I believe it's based on the last year, however Premium and Ultimate members have access to even more detailed information.
Considering the bull market is over a year old, it's rather surprising to see how many analyst have Success rates near 50% with minimal returns.

I've looked up my own holding and have been following them for about 2 months now.
One problem that I see is taxes.
My largest stock holdings have huge unrealized capital gains (SPGI and DE).
Fortunately, they currently both have good ratings by top analysts.
However, it's be really difficult for me to justify selling them and paying all the taxes.
None the less, I do have tax deferred accounts in which an active buying/selling strategy could be used.

Rankings are also fleeting as they rise or fall depending on how past recommendations have panned out.

Also, I've noticed that smaller cap stocks can have very significant price reactions at about the exact moment top analyst make their recommendations public.  Top analyst of course work for Wall Street firms and they have huge amounts of capital flowing about them. So, some of the returns that Top analyst may be credited with could be exaggerated because they made them just before their firms make huge investments which push the security price around. 

There are also very few sell recommendations.
So, it's kinda like a Hotel California.
It's a lovely place, but you can never leave.

[uncleharley]

The site is news to me, so I read their article about 3 stocks to buy with high dividends. They did pick the correct sector to look in for high dividend payers. All 3 of their recommendations are MLP's. The problem I have is that all 3 of their recomendations are also companies that are or have been selling assets. My preference would be and is a company that has a generous dividend and is buying assets or at least not selling them.

[galeno]

I find all rating systems to be worthless at best.

Active investing is like surfing. By the time you get / see the ratings it's too late. You need to be IN FRONT of the ratings.

Learn how to pick your own stocks. To pick your stocks you need to define your investment strategy.

E.g. we wanted high earning cheap stocks with excellent management demonstrating price momentum.

From 1994-2005 (11 years) we used a concentrated mechanical 80/20 port. Equity allocation = 12-16 individual stocks. We beat the SP500 by 6% CAGR. But lost to it on a risk adjusted basis.

We screened for best 16 of these type of stocks:

1. Mkt cap
2. Financials
3. PEG
4. Momentum

We ran our simple screen every 6 months.

[Fearchar]

galeno,

Agree that knowing what one is doing is vital.

There are plenty of really smart investors in the market.
If something truly is a good investment, then other smart investors should agree.
Unfortunately, there are also a lot of bad investors in the market too.
Bad investors though won't always admit just how bad they really are.

1994-2005 was a very long time ago.
It would be far more convincing if you could demonstrate recent out-performance.
Also, more convincing if there was an independent verification of performance.

Just about everybody gets lucky at sometime.

[steelpony10]

Sept 6, 2021 9:58:05 GMT Fearchar said:

galeno ,

Agree that knowing what one is doing is vital.

There are plenty of really smart investors in the market.
If something truly is a good investment, then other smart investors should agree.
Unfortunately, there are also a lot of bad investors in the market too.
Bad investors though won't always admit just how bad they really are.

1994-2005 was a very long time ago.
It would be far more convincing if you could demonstrate recent out-performance.
Also, more convincing if there was an independent verification of performance.

Just about everybody gets lucky at sometime.

           The problem on forums is definitions. Most I see on here are ones who are satisfied with their returns and methods even if they’re short of market returns because their goals are believed to be met long term. Maybe those are good investors. 

            I’m a buy and hold income investor who wonders why anyone finds investing a worthwhile hobby other then the gambling aspect. So income investing, spend down, hobbiest or casual observer are other divisions. 

            Personally I think I’ve done real well the last 40+ years. Dumb luck, recognition of trends and a few big bets made that so. As far as independent verification of that we can be anything we want as an anonymous poster. That’s why I read for entertainment only.

             Answering the question, I basically rely on a casual review of our monthly statement as the definitive and only up to date guide. As far as what the future holds I’m old school, no one will ever know. But it does have entertainment value.

[Chahta]

Interesting. I don’t know if I am a good investor or a bad investor. I only know I was able to retire at 66 yo. But I may be different. I live a simple life with low expenses. I have not been able to do much traveling or exploring (other than going to Denver for family) due to COVID so I hang out close to home a lot.

Yes I am lucky in some respects too. Tipranks looks like another source for past news, but that is all we have unless we are savants.

[Fearchar]

steelpony10 , Chahta ,

Thanks guys; good points!

I'm about to retire and already wondering what I'm going to do.
Have considered getting more serious with my investments and spending more time on them.

So far, I've had good results without much effort and some degree of luck.
Have also made a few blunders, which I hope to never repeat.

Apparently, it was 2 months ago (time flies) that I entered a few tickers into my free TipRank account.
They have given me only 2 stars for that.
63% Success rate with 1.97% return.
That ranks me as #279,553 out of 470,136 investors!!!!

[shipwreckedandalone]

 I use it as one of many sources for analyst price targets which is free.

[steelpony10]

Sept 6, 2021 14:54:30 GMT Fearchar said:

steelpony10 , Chahta ,

Thanks guys; good points!

I'm about to retire and already wondering what I'm going to do.
Have considered getting more serious with my investments and spending more time on them.

So far, I've had good results without much effort and some degree of luck.
Have also made a few blunders, which I hope to never repeat.

Apparently, it was 2 months ago (time flies) that I entered a few tickers into my free TipRank account.
They have given me only 2 stars for that.
63% Success rate with 1.97% return.
That ranks me as #279,553 out of 470,136 investors!!!!

               Well two months isn’t enough to judge anyone and we’ve all made blunders. Of course those are self defined also.

               In my opinion there is no holy grail of portfolios to cover all random market events. Those would require constant tweaking which many seem to enjoy, an endless expensive hobby. But there are many portfolios that will cover you’re individual circumstances and risk limits that only require tweaking as your circumstances or risk limits change. Way less work and expense. 

                Take up corn hole, pickle ball, join a card club, join a gym, walk or use your brain and volunteer at tax time for AARP. 

[galeno]

Are we good investors?.I think so.

We started investing in global markets in 1984. But we only have records since 1995. The ave AA of our port = 60/40.

Our port vs 60% VTI + 40% BND for 27.7 yr. 1995-YTD

Port:
CAGR = 10.72%
GSD = 20.74%

60% VTI + 40% BND:
CAGR = 8.66%
GSD = 9.74%


CPI:
CAGR = 2.19%
GSD = 1.56%

[galeno]

We became Bogleheads in 2005 and began implementing its strategy and tactics in Jan 2006.

Our port vs 60% VTI + 40% BND for 15.7 yr. 1995-YTD

Port:
CAGR = 6.92%
GSD = 13.84%

60% VTI + 40% BND:
CAGR = 8.66%
GSD = 9.74%


CPI:
CAGR = 1.94%
GSD = 1.95%

[galeno]

My analysis of our investment performance over 37.7 yrs of our portfolio.

Conclusion. Due to being non-USA investors we paid astronomical portfolio expenses vs our benchmark.


CAGR
Our port = 8.80%
60/40 VFINX/VBMFX = 9.31%.

TER = ER + TR.
Our port = 1.31%
60/40 VFINX/VBMFX = 0.15%

11 yr (1984-1994) = 9.58% (100/0 expensive opaque omnibus active MFs in banks) Beginner phase. Underperformance due to ignorance about portfolio expenses. TER = 3%.

11 yr (1995-2005) = 10.72% (80/20 beat the market phase) Outperformance due to my extremely high risk tolerance.

15.7 yr (2006-YTD) = 6.92% (60/40 Boglehead and final phase). Underperformance due to non-USA equity tilt.

[galeno]

Sept 6, 2021 17:30:03 GMT galeno said:

My analysis of our investment performance over 37.7 yrs of our portfolio.

Conclusion. Due to being non-USA investors we paid astronomical portfolio expenses (TER) vs our benchmark.


CAGR
Our port = 8.80%
60/40 VFINX/VBMFX = 9.31%.

TER = ER + TR.
Our port = 1.56%
60/40 VFINX/VBMFX = 0.15%

11 yr (1984-1994) = 9.58% (100/0 expensive opaque omnibus active MFs in banks) Beginner phase. Underperformance due to ignorance about portfolio expenses. TER = 3%.

11 yr (1995-2005) = 10.72% (80/20 beat the market phase) Outperformance due to my extremely high risk tolerance. TER = 1.5%.

15.7 yr (2016-YTD) = 6.92% (60/40 Boglehead and final phase). Underperformance due to non-USA equity tilt.TER = 0.29% to 0.75%