Post by yogibearbull on Sept 4, 2021 13:30:55 GMT
Pg 14-15. Extra federal unemployment benefits expire on MONDAY. The ECB monetary policy on THURSDAY.
REVIEW. Netflix/NFLX has an impressive library of contents. It will start streaming old Seinfeld episodes (07/1989-05/1998) on October 1.
PREVIEW. This SEPTEMBER may not be bad for stocks. On average, September has had -1% loss since 1928 and was negative 54% of the time. But when stocks were strong before September (as this year), September has had +1.4% average gain. Some strategists have SP500 targets of 4,800 for the yearend but there may be volatility along the way.
DATA THIS WEEK. JOLTS report (10 million job openings), consumer credit, Fed Beige Book on WEDNESDAY; weekly initial jobless claims on THURSDAY; PPI, wholesale inventories on FRIDAY.
CLOSED: US markets on MONDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Small-cap Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC; fwd P/E 4.3 (2022); P/B 1; lagging among hot homebuilders; #5 regional homebuilder; high materials and labor costs are hurting margins; growing via acquisitions (AV Homes, 2018; William Lyon, 2020); concerns are rising rates and lower house affordability; pg 21);
5 attractive biotech (XLRN, NVTA, CMPS, SRPT, ALVR; all except XLRN have sold off sharply; biotech ETFs XBI and IBB are also lagging SP500 badly; 2020 was a good year for biotech with many biotech IPOs and now the enthusiasm has disappeared; values now are attracting M&A activity – TRIL + PFE, TBIO + SNY, etc; uncertainty in the leadership at the FDA and some recent unexpected surprises from FDA have been negatives; the FTC is also making noises about the drug/pharma industry; pg 29).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 22: FALL OUTLOOK. It has been a good year for stocks due to vaccinations for Covid-19; (never ending) federal stimulus; 7 successive months of gains for SP500 with 50 new highs (on top of an extraordinary 2020). But now some clouds are appearing – growing Covid-19-Delta; inflation; higher taxes; Fed tapering. Result of these push and pull may be a volatile Fall. Summarized below are the projections from 6 strategists: Christopher HARVEY (Wells Fargo), Saira MALIK (Nuveen), Lori CALVASINA (RBC Capital), Mike WILSON (Morgan Stanley), Michael FREDERICKS (BlackRock), Gaurav MALLIK (State Street).
SP500 YE: 4,225-4,825
SP500 EPS: $192.00-211.65 (2021); $209.00-238.11 (2022)
10-yr Treasury Yield, 2022 YE: 1.90-2.15%
US GDP Growth: 5.9%-6.6% (2021); 3.2-5.0 (2022)
Sectors: Opinions are mixed, and it may be best to have a mix of growth and cyclicals.
Pg 31: 100 YEARS OF BARRON’s reviews some events related to 9/11 20 years ago. While many predicted targeted responses to Al Quaeda operating from AFGHANISTAN, almost nobody guessed the long occupation/control of Afghanistan that just ended chaotically. Several other transient events for the market are also mentioned: Fall of France, Pearl Harbor, JFK assignation, Gulf War. (Lesson for the US investors seems to be not to panic from external events; it may be different for non-US investors.)
Barron’s had only 3 days after 9/11 to put out its weekend issue that week from a temporary (that was used almost for a whole year) and cramped office in South Brunswick, NJ.
Pg 33: FUNDS. Comanager Peter SCHWAB of ESG HY PAXHX avoids fossil-fuel-based energy companies. Fund has lagged in the HY category because the conventional energy companies (almost 15% of the HY index) have rebounded strongly with economic recovery theme. Fund tries to compensate for its lack of conventional energy exposure by being overweight in industrials, materials, water infrastructure. Many renewable energy companies are small and highly leveraged. Fund focuses on BB/B rated companies. Schwab is cautious on HY now in view of the anticipated actions by the FED (taper soon, rate hikes later). The ESG firm Pax is now owned by the UK-based ESG firm Impax.
Pg 35: Options-based ETFs (120 since 2019) are coming out like weeds. These aim to generate income (QYLD, DIVO, etc) or offer hedges (SPD, PAUG, etc).
Pg 36: TECH TRADER. More IPOs are coming in fintech, software, apps. There will also be direct-listings, but SPACs have cooled down. Also missing would be new Chinese companies. New public companies (IPOs, direct-listings, SPACs) have raised 3x the amount raised in 2020 YTD.
Pg 37: INCOME. Dividend-paying companies with high ESG ratings include HD, PEP, AMGN, INTC, TXN; also, JPM, CVS, MRK, MSFT. Mutual funds include FITLX, VFTAX.
Pg 38: ECONOMY. Persistent high inflation and unemployment and slowing growth may mean STAGFLATION. The FED says that inflation and job issues are transitory. But what if the pandemic lingers and those issues are not transitory? The labor participation rate is stuck at 61.7% (low); extra federal unemployment benefits are expiring for 11 million workers (so, why wasn’t there an uptick in jobs?); wages are rising; total unemployment U-6 remains elevated. Some economists have slashed Q3 GDP estimates. The US stocks and bonds face headwinds, but some cyclicals and commodity-producers may do OK.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
LINK
REVIEW. Netflix/NFLX has an impressive library of contents. It will start streaming old Seinfeld episodes (07/1989-05/1998) on October 1.
PREVIEW. This SEPTEMBER may not be bad for stocks. On average, September has had -1% loss since 1928 and was negative 54% of the time. But when stocks were strong before September (as this year), September has had +1.4% average gain. Some strategists have SP500 targets of 4,800 for the yearend but there may be volatility along the way.
DATA THIS WEEK. JOLTS report (10 million job openings), consumer credit, Fed Beige Book on WEDNESDAY; weekly initial jobless claims on THURSDAY; PPI, wholesale inventories on FRIDAY.
CLOSED: US markets on MONDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
BULLISH. Small-cap Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC; fwd P/E 4.3 (2022); P/B 1; lagging among hot homebuilders; #5 regional homebuilder; high materials and labor costs are hurting margins; growing via acquisitions (AV Homes, 2018; William Lyon, 2020); concerns are rising rates and lower house affordability; pg 21);
5 attractive biotech (XLRN, NVTA, CMPS, SRPT, ALVR; all except XLRN have sold off sharply; biotech ETFs XBI and IBB are also lagging SP500 badly; 2020 was a good year for biotech with many biotech IPOs and now the enthusiasm has disappeared; values now are attracting M&A activity – TRIL + PFE, TBIO + SNY, etc; uncertainty in the leadership at the FDA and some recent unexpected surprises from FDA have been negatives; the FTC is also making noises about the drug/pharma industry; pg 29).
BEARISH. See other stories.
Pg 22: FALL OUTLOOK. It has been a good year for stocks due to vaccinations for Covid-19; (never ending) federal stimulus; 7 successive months of gains for SP500 with 50 new highs (on top of an extraordinary 2020). But now some clouds are appearing – growing Covid-19-Delta; inflation; higher taxes; Fed tapering. Result of these push and pull may be a volatile Fall. Summarized below are the projections from 6 strategists: Christopher HARVEY (Wells Fargo), Saira MALIK (Nuveen), Lori CALVASINA (RBC Capital), Mike WILSON (Morgan Stanley), Michael FREDERICKS (BlackRock), Gaurav MALLIK (State Street).
SP500 YE: 4,225-4,825
SP500 EPS: $192.00-211.65 (2021); $209.00-238.11 (2022)
10-yr Treasury Yield, 2022 YE: 1.90-2.15%
US GDP Growth: 5.9%-6.6% (2021); 3.2-5.0 (2022)
Sectors: Opinions are mixed, and it may be best to have a mix of growth and cyclicals.
Pg 31: 100 YEARS OF BARRON’s reviews some events related to 9/11 20 years ago. While many predicted targeted responses to Al Quaeda operating from AFGHANISTAN, almost nobody guessed the long occupation/control of Afghanistan that just ended chaotically. Several other transient events for the market are also mentioned: Fall of France, Pearl Harbor, JFK assignation, Gulf War. (Lesson for the US investors seems to be not to panic from external events; it may be different for non-US investors.)
Barron’s had only 3 days after 9/11 to put out its weekend issue that week from a temporary (that was used almost for a whole year) and cramped office in South Brunswick, NJ.
Pg 33: FUNDS. Comanager Peter SCHWAB of ESG HY PAXHX avoids fossil-fuel-based energy companies. Fund has lagged in the HY category because the conventional energy companies (almost 15% of the HY index) have rebounded strongly with economic recovery theme. Fund tries to compensate for its lack of conventional energy exposure by being overweight in industrials, materials, water infrastructure. Many renewable energy companies are small and highly leveraged. Fund focuses on BB/B rated companies. Schwab is cautious on HY now in view of the anticipated actions by the FED (taper soon, rate hikes later). The ESG firm Pax is now owned by the UK-based ESG firm Impax.
Pg 35: Options-based ETFs (120 since 2019) are coming out like weeds. These aim to generate income (QYLD, DIVO, etc) or offer hedges (SPD, PAUG, etc).
Pg 36: TECH TRADER. More IPOs are coming in fintech, software, apps. There will also be direct-listings, but SPACs have cooled down. Also missing would be new Chinese companies. New public companies (IPOs, direct-listings, SPACs) have raised 3x the amount raised in 2020 YTD.
Pg 37: INCOME. Dividend-paying companies with high ESG ratings include HD, PEP, AMGN, INTC, TXN; also, JPM, CVS, MRK, MSFT. Mutual funds include FITLX, VFTAX.
Pg 38: ECONOMY. Persistent high inflation and unemployment and slowing growth may mean STAGFLATION. The FED says that inflation and job issues are transitory. But what if the pandemic lingers and those issues are not transitory? The labor participation rate is stuck at 61.7% (low); extra federal unemployment benefits are expiring for 11 million workers (so, why wasn’t there an uptick in jobs?); wages are rising; total unemployment U-6 remains elevated. Some economists have slashed Q3 GDP estimates. The US stocks and bonds face headwinds, but some cyclicals and commodity-producers may do OK.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
None
LINK
