Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2021 20:29:56 GMT
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 20, 2021 22:30:26 GMT
Good read. Thanks for sharing this!
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 20, 2021 22:30:59 GMT
Good article but... Quote: Does China care about its equity markets and corporate profitability? From our experience investing in China, we think the government is sensitive to market concerns even though the objectives of party officials can be opaque.FD: Not really: YTD chart shows that MCHI(china) fell about 38% from its last top. See below. Attachments:
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 20, 2021 22:36:38 GMT
This was definitely a good share. I have appreciated a good number of @waffle posts. After reading the commentary, I’m not sure I feel any more comfortable investing in funds with exposure there. Thinking of cutting my losses in FSEAX and ARTYX and noticed others are moving out of those funds as well.
Add: Not that this means a whole lot but… the only 3 funds in Red in a main port today: FXNAX and you guessed it: FSEAX and ARTYX
Add 2: I Should have moved to WAESX
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 21, 2021 13:25:21 GMT
Good article but... Quote: Does China care about its equity markets and corporate profitability? From our experience investing in China, we think the government is sensitive to market concerns even though the objectives of party officials can be opaque.FD: Not really: YTD chart shows that EEM fell about 38% from its last top. See below. Call me irrational/contrarian, I see this as a great opportunity to pick up more EM equity. The further it goes down, the more it becomes attractive. Reason: One way or another, the accounting issues/data protection issues will be resolved - CCP is trying to get ahead of the West demanding accuracy in the company books.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 21, 2021 14:39:04 GMT
Interesting article on BABA, IMO. I hope the paywall doesn't prevent seeing it. In short, it could go lower, maybe a lot. The intrinsic value is ~ 190. I'm looking at $250 within 12-18 months. When I sold MATFX I later put 10-15% of that into BABA as a trade within 12 months. IF it works out, I plan to put the proceeds into VWILX, VGWAX and perhaps something else. In the past, I bought some securities at what I think are deep discounts with the thought that they function as something of a hedge against the current grain. It has worked well with XLE, WF, and remains to be seen with EDV. I have also needed metronome calibration a few times. Either way, it is always with the outer fringes of my port and largely an experiment /educational and entertainment endeavor. I bet within 12-18 months, EDV and BABA will prove to be bargains at purchased prices. Bet is the operative word. Slightly OT is that I hold MSFT, AMZN, APPL, O as long term holds. My only single stock holdings with commitment. edit to add - I think my man win1177 has a position in BABA. Do I remember that correctly? Curious to see if you're adding. It would not surprise me if you are. Let us know if you see this. Take care!!
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Post by Norbert on Aug 21, 2021 14:44:14 GMT
There would appear to be issues related to the Chinese government intervention; but I don't understand if this is just normal regulatory activity like in the West, or something more ominous.
However, the Covid crisis could be hitting China and EMs more than the US. Maybe wait on buying EMs until the charts bottom, which might be the same time that we see a global path out of the Covid epidemic.
Sorry for the short, vacuous post with little insight, but I think these issues warrant research and attention.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 21, 2021 14:56:19 GMT
Good article but... Quote: Does China care about its equity markets and corporate profitability? From our experience investing in China, we think the government is sensitive to market concerns even though the objectives of party officials can be opaque.FD: Not really: YTD chart shows that EEM fell about 38% from its last top. See below. Call me irrational/contrarian, I see this as a great opportunity to pick up more EM equity. The further it goes down, the more it becomes attractive. Reason: One way or another, the accounting issues/data protection issues will be resolved - CCP is trying to get ahead of the West demanding accuracy in the company books. Could be but, if you bought after it fell 15% ("opportunity") you lost more than 20%. I never buy anything that keeps going down, I believe selling your losers pretty quick and holding your winners. In a meltdown, I wait until I see a base and a defined uptrend, I prefer to be late. At the same time, the SP500 keeps going up, why would you want to be diversified?...and it's going on for over 10 years.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 21, 2021 14:56:46 GMT
It's called "cognitive dissonance". They can't operate like a capitalist in a communist framework.
Foreign any thing (funds) has just not made much money.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 21, 2021 15:12:15 GMT
Thanks, FD1000 , steadyeddy , Norbert . Good food for thought. edit to add Chahta, MATFX in 2020 was up >86% and 2019 ~ 29%. So far this year down ~10%. Risk is where the $ is. Of course you coulda just put it on AMZN and MSFT and done well also.
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 21, 2021 16:23:48 GMT
Call me irrational/contrarian, I see this as a great opportunity to pick up more EM equity. The further it goes down, the more it becomes attractive. Reason: One way or another, the accounting issues/data protection issues will be resolved - CCP is trying to get ahead of the West demanding accuracy in the company books. Could be but, if you bought after it fell 15% ("opportunity") you lost more than 20%. I never buy anything that keeps going down, I believe selling your losers pretty quick and holding your winners. In a meltdown, I wait until I see a base and a defined uptrend, I prefer to be late. At the same time, the SP500 keeps going up, why would you want to be diversified?...and it's going on for over 10 years. FD1000, not arguing... but the higher S&P goes the more likely it will fall (harder). Different folks...different strokes.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 21, 2021 16:46:35 GMT
Could be but, if you bought after it fell 15% ("opportunity") you lost more than 20%. I never buy anything that keeps going down, I believe selling your losers pretty quick and holding your winners. In a meltdown, I wait until I see a base and a defined uptrend, I prefer to be late. At the same time, the SP500 keeps going up, why would you want to be diversified?...and it's going on for over 10 years. FD1000 , not arguing... but the higher S&P goes the more likely it will fall (harder). Different folks...different strokes. I have no idea, but again, 50% ago you could say the same thing about the SP500 and it's more than doubled since 03/2020. Just because something goes up, it doesn't mean it will fall more than something that is lagging. I can give you many examples thru history. History show that EEM or China had more volatility than the SP500 and SP500 made much more. Below are the numbers for the last 10 years. Attachments:
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Post by richardsok on Aug 21, 2021 18:45:47 GMT
There would appear to be issues related to the Chinese government intervention; but I don't understand if this is just normal regulatory activity like in the West, or something more ominous. However, the Covid crisis could be hitting China and EMs more than the US. Maybe wait on buying EMs until the charts bottom, which might be the same time that we see a global path out of the Covid epidemic. Sorry for the short, vacuous post with little insight, but I think these issues warrant research and attention. I don't think you're vacuous at all. I think it's a good reminder why one mustn't over-allocate money into any targeted asset with critical considerations one can't possibly understand.
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Post by roi2020 on Aug 21, 2021 23:10:06 GMT
6 hours ago FD1000 said:Could be but, if you bought after it fell 15% ("opportunity") you lost more than 20%. I never buy anything that keeps going down, I believe selling your losers pretty quick and holding your winners. In a meltdown, I wait until I see a base and a defined uptrend, I prefer to be late. At the same time, the SP500 keeps going up, why would you want to be diversified?...and it's going on for over 10 years.I have no idea, but again, 50% ago you could say the same thing about the SP500 and it's more than doubled since 03/2020. Just because something goes up, it doesn't mean it will fall more than something that is lagging. I can give you many examples thru history. History show that EEM or China had more volatility than the SP500 and SP500 made much more. Below are the numbers for the last 10 years.
The S&P 500 has performed well the past decade. How will it perform during the next 10 years? What if the S&P 500 experiences another "lost decade"? Below are the numbers from 2000-2009. Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 23:32:33 GMT
After making lot of mistakes, I am now in agreement with FD1000.
"What if the S&P 500 experiences another "lost decade"?" -
I have lost more in opportunity cost worrying about recession on horizon than I would have actually lost in recession. And now I will lose in recession anyway. SO I am losing twice.
If it is a sideways market ie 0% returns, how to invest. I would still go with reasonably priced strong companies, strong Mutual funds/ETFS with momentum. GARP - Growth with reasonable price = Value.
Also I have always lost when I invested in declining stocks/market as it is going down. Averaging down never worked for me.
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Post by bb2 on Aug 21, 2021 23:39:35 GMT
Scott Galloway is a pretty smart guy and his last post was on China: www.profgalloway.com/seeing-red/From the post: "My view: This is a rare moment when beachfront property is going on sale. Xi may have rapped the knuckles of Jack Ma and the tech entrepreneur class, but it’s difficult to imagine he’ll cut off their fingers. Xi needs the engine of economic growth to keep humming, as there are still 300 million people living on less than $5.50 a day in China. This economic miracle is only half complete. Whatever Xi does, there’s the real possibility that the Chinese system, as morally flawed as it is, might produce greater prosperity than the U.S. model. And shareholder returns are a product of opportunity and execution. If China in 2040 is the dominant power and a 2-billion-person economic success story, all the regulatory overhang in the world won’t cut into the wealth its corporate shareholders will enjoy. Who can say? My money is still on the U.S., as I’m hopeful we will look east and learn." -----------------------End of Galloway quote.------------------- And back to BB2, who knows nothing. Seems to me Xi is becoming less pragmatic and more ideological. I'm getting interested, anything down 30% interests me, but need to learn more and I've not been able to find anything that's giving me any insight or courage yet.
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Post by chang on Aug 22, 2021 1:00:28 GMT
There would appear to be issues related to the Chinese government intervention; but I don't understand if this is just normal regulatory activity like in the West, or something more ominous. However, the Covid crisis could be hitting China and EMs more than the US. Maybe wait on buying EMs until the charts bottom, which might be the same time that we see a global path out of the Covid epidemic. Sorry for the short, vacuous post with little insight, but I think these issues warrant research and attention. I believe your points are all quite trenchant. I viewed the Chinese crackdown on education-for-profit companies as a dip-cum-opportunity, but I am starting to wonder now. Tencent recently warned shareholders of potential volatility ahead. On Covid - change "could" to "is"! Thailand was the poster child for Covid response in 2020, now we're back in lockdown and trying to keep a lid on burgeoning exposure and fatality rates because we can't get enough vaccines. (As an aside, the anti-vax "movement" is simply mind-boggling. Whatever the politics might be -- whether ot not Fauci masterminded the creation of this virus in Wuhan and should be put on trial for crimes against humanity -- the fact is that the people who are getting hospitalized, intubated and buried are the ones who have refused the vaccine. I used to think that the ascendancy of medical technology and health care effectively halted natural selection and ended the evolution of humankind, but now I see that Darwin's theory is alive and well.) I have some deck-chair shuffling to do this week. Will sell off some EM -- not getting out by any means, but just paring back a little -- and redistribute to health care and other areas.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 22, 2021 3:43:03 GMT
6 hours ago FD1000 said:Could be but, if you bought after it fell 15% ("opportunity") you lost more than 20%. I never buy anything that keeps going down, I believe selling your losers pretty quick and holding your winners. In a meltdown, I wait until I see a base and a defined uptrend, I prefer to be late. At the same time, the SP500 keeps going up, why would you want to be diversified?...and it's going on for over 10 years.I have no idea, but again, 50% ago you could say the same thing about the SP500 and it's more than doubled since 03/2020. Just because something goes up, it doesn't mean it will fall more than something that is lagging. I can give you many examples thru history. History show that EEM or China had more volatility than the SP500 and SP500 made much more. Below are the numbers for the last 10 years.
The S&P 500 has performed well the past decade. How will it perform during the next 10 years? What if the S&P 500 experiences another "lost decade"? Below are the numbers from 2000-2009. You are correct but just starts several years before and SP500 still wins, see below But, I also said "I wait until I see a base and a defined uptrend". Starting in 2000, see below, for SP500,IWM,EEM and it’s clear where is the uptrend. No question, it started in 2003 and it lasted for several years...you just found what I have been doing for over 20 years. I just use managed funds regardless of diversification, but I also prefer to own lower SD funds. In 2000-2010 I held mainly 3 funds SGIIX/SGENX,FAIRX,OAKBX, see below. Attachments:
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Post by liftlock on Aug 22, 2021 4:18:50 GMT
After making lot of mistakes, I am now in agreement with FD1000. "What if the S&P 500 experiences another "lost decade"?" - I have lost more in opportunity cost worrying about recession on horizon than I would have actually lost in recession. And now I will lose in recession anyway. SO I am losing twice. If it is a sideways market ie 0% returns, how to invest. I would still go with reasonably priced strong companies, strong Mutual funds/ETFS with momentum. GARP - Growth with reasonable price = Value. Also I have always lost when I invested in declining stocks/market as it is going down. Averaging down never worked for me. This discussion reminds me of a speech I heard Dennis Gartman give many years ago at the New York Traders Expo. The theme of his speech was about the trading / investing lessons he had learned. His main message was simple: "Own / invest in more of what is currently working, and less of what is not.". alphabetastock.com/2021/07/07/the-last-gartman-letter-and-what-dennis-has-learned/
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Post by anovice on Aug 22, 2021 9:44:05 GMT
There would appear to be issues related to the Chinese government intervention; but I don't understand if this is just normal regulatory activity like in the West, or something more ominous. However, the Covid crisis could be hitting China and EMs more than the US. Maybe wait on buying EMs until the charts bottom, which might be the same time that we see a global path out of the Covid epidemic. Sorry for the short, vacuous post with little insight, but I think these issues warrant research and attention. (As an aside, the anti-vax "movement" is simply mind-boggling. Whatever the politics might be -- whether ot not Fauci masterminded the creation of this virus in Wuhan and should be put on trial for crimes against humanity -- the fact is that the people who are getting hospitalized, intubated and buried are the ones who have refused the vaccine. I used to think that the ascendancy of medical technology and health care effectively halted natural selection and ended the evolution of humankind, but now I see that Darwin's theory is alive and well.) Nice.
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Post by Norbert on Aug 22, 2021 10:55:16 GMT
There's a useful Reuters piece about Chinese government regulatory changes HERE. I'm shocked that the Chinese Communist Party would be shifting from a capitalist to a more socialist model.
Meanwhile, it looks like things are turning out for the better in Afghanistan (ETF ticker symbol "AFG"). The Taliban has promised to protect women. Read in the Jerusalem Post HERE. Women will still be executed for not wearing a burka, but that's understandable.
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Post by racqueteer on Aug 22, 2021 11:56:56 GMT
I've not seen a strong reason to invest outside the US for many years now. SOMEDAY perhaps. China is a crapshoot, imo. The government has shown that they are willing to do whatever they want WHENEVER they want. How can you invest in that atmosphere?
As to a kinder, gentler Taiban emerging wrt women? What's their incentive for doing so? What's their history of doing so? I'll believe it when I see it!
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 22, 2021 13:10:38 GMT
All - Picking and choosing a time period to prove one's point, while factual, means nothing in terms of what the future holds. The OP was sharing what the capital group thought about the China situation at the moment. I apologize if I caused the digression, but let us get back on track.
Future might rhyme with the past, but it might not. Some of us perceive value when a certain asset falls in price, while some others perceive continued weakness. The fact that we commit our hard earned money based on our perception indicates the strength with which we believe in that perception.
Here is my take on China: - Several risks overhang China, and I will list a few [no politics please]: 1. Countries near China are worrying about China's influence [HK democracy, Taiwan relative independence, Aussie/NewZea tensions with China, etc etc] 2. Countries in the West worry about losing their currency dominance - $, euro, etc - thus a finger-pointing of "accounting accuracy" in Chinese companies flaring up 3. China itself is assessing priorities between their "national" agenda versus "global economic" agenda 3. Countries all around have strong views about the role China PERHAPS played in the spread of the pandemic. Some resentment and desire to punish China "appears" evident.
Each coin has two sides - thus the real truth might be somewhere in the middle. I see that uncertainty as a great investment opportunity.
Let us not dwell into politics please. I hope I didn't dwell into politics in this post. Mods - feel free to edit out anything you find political.
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Post by Norbert on Aug 22, 2021 14:09:58 GMT
FXI chart (click to enlarge): It's a bit simplistic, but I see that FXI just hit a level of support around $38. If Reuters is correct about the government being willing to let some state-heavy corporations go down, the price should fall through to lower support at $32. There's lots of uncertainty about Peking's intentions, plus the Covid-19 story has a distance to run. I think there's no hurry about buying greater China, regardless of the "cheap" prices. Wait for market capitulation? N.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 22, 2021 14:59:48 GMT
Norbert , The decline in trading volume since early this yr for FXi, is also telling. Any surge in trading volume should accelerate the current decline in value.
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Post by win1177 on Aug 22, 2021 17:05:54 GMT
Interesting article on BABA, IMO. I hope the paywall doesn't prevent seeing it. In short, it could go lower, maybe a lot. The intrinsic value is ~ 190. I'm looking at $250 within 12-18 months. When I sold MATFX I later put 10-15% of that into BABA as a trade within 12 months. IF it works out, I plan to put the proceeds into VWILX, VGWAX and perhaps something else. In the past, I bought some securities at what I think are deep discounts with the thought that they function as something of a hedge against the current grain. It has worked well with XLE, WF, and remains to be seen with EDV. I have also needed metronome calibration a few times. Either way, it is always with the outer fringes of my port and largely an experiment /educational and entertainment endeavor. I bet within 12-18 months, EDV and BABA will prove to be bargains at purchased prices. Bet is the operative word. Slightly OT is that I hold MSFT, AMZN, APPL, O as long term holds. My only single stock holdings with commitment. edit to add - I think my man win1177 has a position in BABA. Do I remember that correctly? Curious to see if you're adding. It would not surprise me if you are. Let us know if you see this. Take care!! I DO have a position in BABA, thought I was buying at a “low” of $200/ share. BUT, with it down at $157-158, I OBVIOUSLY was WRONG. Bought 300 shares, so down about $12,600 right now. Right now, just sitting and watching, I’m not adding, as I think there are too many “unknowns” with the Chinese govt. Purely on a valuation basis, BABA is a strong buy, if the Govt. was removed from the equation. But with the Chinese govt., too many unknowns. So Im’ not adding, too risky IMHO. Win
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 22, 2021 17:12:02 GMT
win1177 , thanks for the response. My position is much smaller and initiated around 170. I’ve added a few every $10 drop and will continue that metric down to 120, if it gets that low. Then I’ll wait and see. Please keep us posted in the event you change strategy. Also, if your still working as a doc please stay safe. Things seems scary in the southeast. ~ RM
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Post by win1177 on Aug 22, 2021 19:47:04 GMT
win1177 , thanks for the response. My position is much smaller and initiated around 170. I’ve added a few every $10 drop and will continue that metric down to 120, if it gets that low. Then I’ll wait and see. Please keep us posted in the event you change strategy. Also, if your still working as a doc please stay safe. Things seems scary in the southeast. ~ RM I’m just going to sit on my BABA position for now, not going to add as “predicting” Chinese govt. actions is too hard. Worst case scenario, I have a capital loss for the future. Oh well. I am still working as an MD, we’re seeing HUGE increases in Covid 19 infections, younger and sicker people too. ICU’s getting busy, deaths trending up. All bad news! I’m retiring at the end of the year, already vaccinated, exercising regularly, so trying to stay healthy as I can. All patients in the clinic HAVE to wear masks (no mask, no appt.), and trying to be careful. I see it as just an occupational hazard, but one I’m trying HARD to avoid. Thanks for the kind wishes! Win
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mrc
Lieutenant
Posts: 104
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Post by mrc on Aug 23, 2021 6:26:53 GMT
BTW, based on M* Ownership/Buying and Gurufocus data, the following folks bought BABA for the first time or added to their position in BABA. It is a small %age of their portfolio for some of them.
Artisan International Value Artisan Global Value Vanguard Windsor Trow Price Science & Technology Oakbark International Vanguard Primecap Tweedy Browne
Mohnish Pabrai Leon Cooperman Charles Brandes
There could be more
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
Posts: 221
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Post by galeno on Aug 23, 2021 12:28:04 GMT
Our FTSE all world equity UCITS ETF (VWRD) holds 58% US domiciled and 4% Chinese domiciled equities.
That seems about right for us.
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