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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 10:52:09 GMT
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 2, 2021 10:52:09 GMT
chang, Ha. Ha. I had Enron on a short list at the time. There was another hot stock around the same period and that guy went to prison also. One of the other principals of Enron did go on to head an MLP also, a hot area after that for a time. Makes my CEF’s look tame. In my defense how would I ever know that stuff. If you take capital gains on the way up (manage your greed) you can spread the taxes, have funds for future market sales and partially protect yourself from an unknown.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 10:59:13 GMT
I looked at portfolio performance. I am lagging the S&P in my brokerage account. This is where I also had a large amount of cash for a period, but that should be evening out monthly. It's my concentrations in AAPL and AMZN that are underperforming (around 15% and 7% ytd). Kind of interesting. Does this mean I would be better off with an index? This year so far. Over 10 years? I am not switching.
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 14:48:54 GMT
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 2, 2021 14:48:54 GMT
I looked at portfolio performance. I am lagging the S&P in my brokerage account. This is where I also had a large amount of cash for a period, but that should be evening out monthly. It's my concentrations in AAPL and AMZN that are underperforming (around 15% and 7% ytd). Kind of interesting. Does this mean I would be better off with an index? This year so far. Over 10 years? I am not switching. An index guarantees at least market returns. The question is can you beat that the next 10 years? You said you didn’t so far as a whole portfolio. So if you’re ok you may not do it the next ten years either don’t change. Isolated we beat the S&P index handily with U.S. growth indexes, a few stocks and VTI which matched. Dump in the CEF’s, a muni and cash not so hot overall like you. I would “guess” if you’re not tipped U.S. large growth equities, ours is about 40% of PV, the next ten years you might still lag. Maybe. It’s probably not going to stay like that forever. I see no factual reason at the present time to change either, just riding the current winners.
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 14:51:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by Chahta on Sept 2, 2021 14:51:05 GMT
I looked at portfolio performance. I am lagging the S&P in my brokerage account. This is where I also had a large amount of cash for a period, but that should be evening out monthly. It's my concentrations in AAPL and AMZN that are underperforming (around 15% and 7% ytd). Kind of interesting. Does this mean I would be better off with an index? This year so far. Over 10 years? I am not switching. I am not sure ones’s taxable account is for making “market” returns, unless you are measuring against income type of indexes. That is how I look at it. Since I am living from my taxable (brokerage) account I am holding 1 managed equity fund for CG harvesting with the rest tax efficient bond funds. Cheers.
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Deleted
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 16:14:32 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 16:14:32 GMT
I looked at portfolio performance. I am lagging the S&P in my brokerage account. This is where I also had a large amount of cash for a period, but that should be evening out monthly. It's my concentrations in AAPL and AMZN that are underperforming (around 15% and 7% ytd). Kind of interesting. Does this mean I would be better off with an index? This year so far. Over 10 years? I am not switching. An index guarantees at least market returns. The question is can you beat that the next 10 years? You said you didn’t so far as a whole portfolio. So if you’re ok you may not do it the next ten years either don’t change. Isolated we beat the S&P index handily with U.S. growth indexes, a few stocks and VTI which matched. Dump in the CEF’s, a muni and cash not so hot overall like you. I would “guess” if you’re not tipped U.S. large growth equities, ours is about 40% of PV, the next ten years you might still lag. Maybe. It’s probably not going to stay like that forever. I see no factual reason at the present time to change either, just riding the current winners. You must not be using QQQ then . VTI is slightly less - isn't it? Must de due to the other growth and MSFT - not AAPL and AMZN - or that you have so much more VTI. I have about 32% of PV in Growth, over the last 8 years I am pretty much matching S&P overall. I was surprised by this year's drag by AAPL and AMZN.
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Deleted
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 16:17:30 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 16:17:30 GMT
I looked at portfolio performance. I am lagging the S&P in my brokerage account. This is where I also had a large amount of cash for a period, but that should be evening out monthly. It's my concentrations in AAPL and AMZN that are underperforming (around 15% and 7% ytd). Kind of interesting. Does this mean I would be better off with an index? This year so far. Over 10 years? I am not switching. I am not sure ones’s taxable account is for making “market” returns, unless you are measuring against income type of indexes. That is how I look at it. Since I am living from my taxable (brokerage) account I am holding 1 managed equity fund for CG harvesting with the rest tax efficient bond funds. Cheers. Still accumulating. It was an observation, but I am not changing anything.
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 2, 2021 18:52:13 GMT
An index guarantees at least market returns. The question is can you beat that the next 10 years? You said you didn’t so far as a whole portfolio. So if you’re ok you may not do it the next ten years either don’t change. Isolated we beat the S&P index handily with U.S. growth indexes, a few stocks and VTI which matched. Dump in the CEF’s, a muni and cash not so hot overall like you. I would “guess” if you’re not tipped U.S. large growth equities, ours is about 40% of PV, the next ten years you might still lag. Maybe. It’s probably not going to stay like that forever. I see no factual reason at the present time to change either, just riding the current winners. You must not be using QQQ then . VTI is slightly less - isn't it? Must de due to the other growth and MSFT - not AAPL and AMZN - or that you have so much more VTI. I have about 32% of PV in Growth, over the last 8 years I am pretty much matching S&P overall. I was surprised by this year's drag by AAPL and AMZN. VTI, VOT VUG and the 4 stocks I mentioned. I’m backtracking towards 50/50 VTI to VUG. I live off CEF income but I’m sure those beat a S&P index by about 2% a year. So? I only graph long term. Short term is a crap shoot with little rhyme or reason driven by headlines not the actual state of a business. VTI pretty much matches a S&P index with way more holdings so it’s more conservative for me. VUG overloads the first 250+ holdings of VTI. So it will tilt towards LG as a whole but become more risky, a small number of holdings concentrated in LG mostly tech. As far as individual stocks the P doesn’t march with the E in lockstep. That’s why in recent times most on here think everything is overvalued all the time. Being a long term growth investor AMZN and AAPL are not necessarily overvalued at this time in my opinion. They are on a step before the next rise. How long a step who knows, can they drop further sure. The future is always unknown. You should check the smart money though. See the pluses and minuses of the top ten holdings of the best rated and regarded actively managed large growth funds. How many are adding or subtracting specifically to those two, AMZN and AAPL?
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 19:10:33 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 19:10:33 GMT
You must not be using QQQ then . VTI is slightly less - isn't it? Must de due to the other growth and MSFT - not AAPL and AMZN - or that you have so much more VTI. I have about 32% of PV in Growth, over the last 8 years I am pretty much matching S&P overall. I was surprised by this year's drag by AAPL and AMZN. VTI, VOT VUG and the 4 stocks I mentioned. I’m backtracking towards 50/50 VTI to VUG. I live off CEF income but I’m sure those beat a S&P index by about 2% a year. So? I only graph long term. Short term is a crap shoot with little rhyme or reason driven by headlines not the actual state of a business. VTI pretty much matches a S&P index with way more holdings so it’s more conservative for me. VUG overloads the first 250+ holdings of VTI. So it will tilt towards LG as a whole but become more risky, a small number of holdings concentrated in LG mostly tech. As far as individual stocks the P doesn’t march with the E in lockstep. That’s why in recent times most on here think everything is overvalued all the time. Being a long term growth investor AMZN and AAPL are not necessarily overvalued at this time in my opinion. They are on a step before the next rise. How long a step who knows, can they drop further sure. The future is always unknown. You should check the smart money though. See the pluses and minuses of the top ten holdings of the best rated and regarded actively managed large growth funds. How many are adding or subtracting specifically to those two, AMZN and AAPL? Could be reading returns wrong, but I don't think any of those funds are beating the SPY this year. Not AAPL or AMZN (really lagging!). Must be MSFT. Forgot the 4th. It's interesting. I understand this is just short term and not representative for you. I am having the same experience - my drag is from AAPL and AMZN -17% of my entire portfolio. P vs E - some with high Ps are overvalued, some are not. As a whole, I would hazard the market is overvalued - once artificially low rates run free, I believe those with high Ps not supported by Es have issues. I sure can't pick -em out so stick with those lower Ps. Gonna let you stick to that smart money thing - I guess that is using a managed fund without paying the fees! Actually, I bet Mark Mahaney is smart money. I read his analyses. Also, CONGRATULATIONS, on beating the S&P 500 by 2% a year. That is spectacular!
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 20:35:59 GMT
Post by steelpony10 on Sept 2, 2021 20:35:59 GMT
VTI, VOT VUG and the 4 stocks I mentioned. I’m backtracking towards 50/50 VTI to VUG. I live off CEF income but I’m sure those beat a S&P index by about 2% a year. So? I only graph long term. Short term is a crap shoot with little rhyme or reason driven by headlines not the actual state of a business. VTI pretty much matches a S&P index with way more holdings so it’s more conservative for me. VUG overloads the first 250+ holdings of VTI. So it will tilt towards LG as a whole but become more risky, a small number of holdings concentrated in LG mostly tech. As far as individual stocks the P doesn’t march with the E in lockstep. That’s why in recent times most on here think everything is overvalued all the time. Being a long term growth investor AMZN and AAPL are not necessarily overvalued at this time in my opinion. They are on a step before the next rise. How long a step who knows, can they drop further sure. The future is always unknown. You should check the smart money though. See the pluses and minuses of the top ten holdings of the best rated and regarded actively managed large growth funds. How many are adding or subtracting specifically to those two, AMZN and AAPL? Could be reading returns wrong, but I don't think any of those funds are beating the SPY this year. Not AAPL or AMZN (really lagging!). Must be MSFT. Forgot the 4th. It's interesting. I understand this is just short term and not representative for you. I am having the same experience - my drag is from AAPL and AMZN -17% of my entire portfolio. P vs E - some with high Ps are overvalued, some are not. As a whole, I would hazard the market is overvalued - once artificially low rates run free, I believe those with high Ps not supported by Es have issues. I sure can't pick -em out so stick with those lower Ps. Gonna let you stick to that smart money thing - I guess that is using a managed fund without paying the fees! Actually, I bet Mark Mahaney is smart money. I read his analyses. Also, CONGRATULATIONS, on beating the S&P 500 by 2% a year. That is spectacular! You’re correct so far this year. I guess you didn’t get the part short term has nothing to do with the actual business just disinterest. If they’re lagging, which was my point, and I was still an active investor I’d be adding. Take a look at the 5 year graph instead: bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=VTI&x=48&y=21&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F2%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=Spy%2C+AAPL%2C+MSFT%2C+AMZN%2C+VUG%2CFB+VOT&comp=Spy%2C+AAPL%2C+MSFT%2C+AMZN%2C+VUG%2CFB+VOT&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12 This is how investors make thousands over a 40+ year span. Little allocation or diversification only winners until they fade permanently. So take what you have and graph all data for everything to see a clear picture. It may really surprise you. All the warts will stand out. How many fail to beat VTI or SPY long term (if you like paying more)? As I consolidate holdings can you see why VOT and FB are next on my hit list? SPY is overlaid with VTI? Same return 500 holdings, more cost to 3600 holdings, less cost? If you’re happy with your results great. I took a different tact.* *Looks like AAPL has returned the most since 05-06, 40000%.
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Deleted
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 21:41:35 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 21:41:35 GMT
Could be reading returns wrong, but I don't think any of those funds are beating the SPY this year. Not AAPL or AMZN (really lagging!). Must be MSFT. Forgot the 4th. It's interesting. I understand this is just short term and not representative for you. I am having the same experience - my drag is from AAPL and AMZN -17% of my entire portfolio. P vs E - some with high Ps are overvalued, some are not. As a whole, I would hazard the market is overvalued - once artificially low rates run free, I believe those with high Ps not supported by Es have issues. I sure can't pick -em out so stick with those lower Ps. Gonna let you stick to that smart money thing - I guess that is using a managed fund without paying the fees! Actually, I bet Mark Mahaney is smart money. I read his analyses. Also, CONGRATULATIONS, on beating the S&P 500 by 2% a year. That is spectacular! You’re correct so far this year. I guess you didn’t get the part short term has nothing to do with the actual business just disinterest. If they’re lagging, which was my point, and I was still an active investor I’d be adding. Take a look at the 5 year graph instead: bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=VTI&x=48&y=21&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F2%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=Spy%2C+AAPL%2C+MSFT%2C+AMZN%2C+VUG%2CFB+VOT&comp=Spy%2C+AAPL%2C+MSFT%2C+AMZN%2C+VUG%2CFB+VOT&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12 This is how investors make thousands over a 40+ year span. Little allocation or diversification only winners until they fade permanently. So take what you have and graph all data for everything to see a clear picture. It may really surprise you. All the warts will stand out. How many fail to beat VTI or SPY long term (if you like paying more)? As I consolidate holdings can you see why VOT and FB are next on my hit list? SPY is overlaid with VTI? Same return 500 holdings, more cost to 3600 holdings, less cost? If you’re happy with your results great. I took a different tact.* *Looks like AAPL has returned the most since 05-06, 40000%. I did get the part about short term. See bolded above. I am very happy with my results, although would be elated to beat the Market by 2% on average. That's crazy good! Maybe I do need to start picking stocks based on charts and the smart money instead of valuation! I should add for me - luck - valuation and luck...and Josh Peters (McDonalds, UPS, O, CLX, and more!)
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 22:00:19 GMT
Post by Chahta on Sept 2, 2021 22:00:19 GMT
To push and try to outperform the market one either 1. is accumulating behind schedule, 2. needs more in retirement or 3. just wants to have fun trying to beat the market. I am perfectly happy making market returns with my index ETFs. I bought AMZN for some fun because it looked out of favor but do not need or plan to buy a bevy of additional stocks. Along with some bond OEFS I believe I will make what I need in the future. BUT...things can change in investing.
How can anyone count on AAPL or AMZN to keep outperforming the market. Seems like a crap shoot. When does one decide to give up and move on?
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Deleted
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 22:13:47 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 22:13:47 GMT
To push and try to outperform the market one either 1. is accumulating behind schedule, 2. needs more in retirement or 3. just wants to have fun trying to beat the market. I am perfectly happy making market returns with my index ETFs. I bought AMZN for some fun because it looked out of favor but do not need or plan to buy a bevy of additional stocks. Along with some bond OEFS I believe I will make what I need in the future. BUT...things can change in investing. Kinda agree. I started this with Josh Peters - dividend stocks for income. So, I bought a lot of stocks. Didn't even think about indexes back then. So here I am. On my own I bought AAPL (as a dividend value play), AMZN (like you for fun and it is just such a great company), FB and GOOG (both purchased based on value). I have a portfolio that is well diversified. I pretty much match the S&P. Don't think I beat it long term, but pretty sure I don't lag it long term. Hard to say, because it has taken years to put money present and coming in where I have. I am somewhat pleasantly stuck with my stable of stocks. I sure never thought about beating bench marks when I started - and really don't now. Income - I get that from my dividend growers and am satisfied they will support what I need. This discussion really shows me what is important - diversification and time in the market. And if you are lucky and choose well - bonus! I sure am not going to pretend I am Peter Lynch, so that is why I put luck in there! The reason I kinda agree - does your attitude change in a bear market? Mine doesn't. I don't care if I outperform or not. I have mine set up for income. As long as the income is stable and keeping up with inflation, I am very satisfied.
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 22:20:14 GMT
Post by Chahta on Sept 2, 2021 22:20:14 GMT
To push and try to outperform the market one either 1. is accumulating behind schedule, 2. needs more in retirement or 3. just wants to have fun trying to beat the market. I am perfectly happy making market returns with my index ETFs. I bought AMZN for some fun because it looked out of favor but do not need or plan to buy a bevy of additional stocks. Along with some bond OEFS I believe I will make what I need in the future. BUT...things can change in investing. Kinda agree. I started this with Josh Peters - dividend stocks for income. So, I bought a lot of stocks. Didn't even think about indexes back then. So here I am. On my own I bought AAPL (as a dividend value play), AMZN (like you for fun and it is just such a great company), FB and GOOG (both purchased based on value). I have a portfolio that is well diversified. I pretty much match the S&P. Don't think I beat it long term, but pretty sure I don't lag it long term. Hard to say, because it has taken years to put money present and coming in where I have. I am somewhat pleasantly stuck with my stable of stocks. I sure never thought about beating bench marks when I started - and really don't now. Income - I get that from my dividend growers and am satisfied they will support what I need. This discussion really shows me what is important - diversification and time in the market. And if you are lucky and choose well - bonus! I sure am not going to pretend I am Peter Lynch, so that is why I put luck in there! The reason I kinda agree - does your attitude change in a bear market? Mine doesn't. I don't care if I outperform or not. I have mine set up for income. As long as the income is stable and keeping up with inflation, I am very satisfied. I don't sell equities in a bear market. I did dump some bond OEFs in March 2020. I think I have corrected my mistake by holding the correct type of bond OEFs (good long term records). Not everyone agrees but I think one needs to have cash-type of funds available to get thru tough times.
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Deleted
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Amazon
Sept 2, 2021 22:24:58 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 22:24:58 GMT
Kinda agree. I started this with Josh Peters - dividend stocks for income. So, I bought a lot of stocks. Didn't even think about indexes back then. So here I am. On my own I bought AAPL (as a dividend value play), AMZN (like you for fun and it is just such a great company), FB and GOOG (both purchased based on value). I have a portfolio that is well diversified. I pretty much match the S&P. Don't think I beat it long term, but pretty sure I don't lag it long term. Hard to say, because it has taken years to put money present and coming in where I have. I am somewhat pleasantly stuck with my stable of stocks. I sure never thought about beating bench marks when I started - and really don't now. Income - I get that from my dividend growers and am satisfied they will support what I need. This discussion really shows me what is important - diversification and time in the market. And if you are lucky and choose well - bonus! I sure am not going to pretend I am Peter Lynch, so that is why I put luck in there! The reason I kinda agree - does your attitude change in a bear market? Mine doesn't. I don't care if I outperform or not. I have mine set up for income. As long as the income is stable and keeping up with inflation, I am very satisfied. I don't sell equities in a bear market. I did dump some bond OEFs in March 2020. I think I have corrected my mistake by holding the correct type of bond OEFs (good long term records). Not everyone agrees but I think one needs to have cash-type of funds available to get thru tough times. Same - I have a cash/bond fund as a backstop. Maybe even too much for being 9 years from retirement. Well I am getting off topic. Sorry!
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Amazon
Nov 22, 2021 0:30:37 GMT
Post by bb2 on Nov 22, 2021 0:30:37 GMT
Bought last at 33474 on Oct.29. Split coming? Wage rise said to be in the stock already by some.
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Amazon
Nov 22, 2021 2:56:58 GMT
Post by steelpony10 on Nov 22, 2021 2:56:58 GMT
bb2 , I always thought AMZN could split the cloud from retail. Others slapped me down on that. So this remains an unknown. AMZN may be stepping up from it’s recent holding pattern. It’s been about the same as the last one, 1+ years.
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Amazon
Nov 22, 2021 17:24:44 GMT
Post by bb2 on Nov 22, 2021 17:24:44 GMT
Actually, I was thinking of a stock split. 10 for one gets it into the DOW. Bezos was not a fan of a stock split. With Jassy as CEO, not sure if an AWS spinoff would happen. Seems less likely to me but I really have no idea. AMZN down today - maybe because of the planned strikes on Black Friday. I'll stop out to avoid a loss on my October buy.
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Amazon
Jan 24, 2022 18:16:19 GMT
Post by Fearchar on Jan 24, 2022 18:16:19 GMT
Sorry that I didn't see this thread earlier....
AMZN is selling off and is now at BUY point on my watch list spreadsheet. This is based largely on Morningstar's analysis. Their 5* price is $2460. However, I bias it higher and AMZN at $2720 is technically a BUY on my sheet.
When I look at earnings and growth rates though, it's not encouraging.
$41.83 last year $40.97 this year $51.16 next year
Earnings yield 1.5% Growth Rate 11% So, next years Earnings yield could be 1.7%. That silly low with rising rates.
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