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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 16, 2021 22:57:50 GMT
At the time of this writing, the total stock markets of US & Dev xUS are at their 52 week highs, while EM is about 10% below its 52 week high.
What does this forum say about this? Opportunity? Risk?
I am buying the EM dip...
Thanks.
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Post by javajoe on Aug 16, 2021 23:54:31 GMT
While I haven't sold any E/M holdings recently, the chart of EEM is very weak over multiple time horizons at the moment, so personally I am waiting for a clearer bottom to form before adding new money. An aggressive trader could make an argument that we are approaching support and hope for a tradeable bounce, but I would have a very tight stop if I did that.
Just my 2c!
-JavaJoe
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 17, 2021 3:38:30 GMT
Hope is not an investment decision, performance actually matters. BTW, Chinese bonds are in trouble too( link). China is by far the biggest country among EM. Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2021 14:27:53 GMT
EM is still going down. So far this has been a bad year to be in EM specially China.
is it too late to sell and too early to buy?
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Post by javajoe on Aug 17, 2021 15:14:52 GMT
Sometimes adjusting your chart length to various time frames can be helpful in a time like this. While EM has been in a pronounced downturn since Feb, overall levels are still essentially above 2020 levels. Do note however we've had a Death Cross on the weekly and today's price is well below the 200 EMA, so the technical downward pressure remains: stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EEM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35479057458 |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 17, 2021 15:25:26 GMT
I am no fan of China or EM.
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Post by johntaylor on Aug 17, 2021 15:33:50 GMT
My experiment in a China fund is up 9 percent YTD, so mediocre compensation for risk
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 17, 2021 17:19:26 GMT
I bought some more EM index etf IEMG today.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 18, 2021 1:00:13 GMT
There is also very wide dispersion among the Diversified EM funds. This is most likely related to their positioning in China - % exposures may be similar but the make up of holdings may be quite different. Their 3-mo returns range from about -15.0% (Invesco EMs) to +14.6% (Wasatch EMs) - that is a huge rage for 3-mo. Usually, funds in the same category tend to bunch up but that is not the case here. M* Fund Quickrank, use Diversified EM category, click Short-Term tab and sort the 3-mo column, www.morningstar.com/funds/screener-rank |
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 19, 2021 21:06:56 GMT
There is also very wide dispersion among the Diversified EM funds. This is most likely related to their positioning in China - % exposures may be similar but the make up of holdings may be quite different. Their 3-mo returns range from about -15.0% (Invesco EMs) to +14.6% (Wasatch EMs) - that is a huge rage for 3-mo. Usually, funds in the same category tend to bunch up but that is not the case here. M* Fund Quickrank, use Diversified EM category, click Short-Term tab and sort the 3-mo column, www.morningstar.com/funds/screener-rank, I am buying plain vanilla EM index ETF (IEMG). At the portfolio level, I am not overweight EM, but my recent buys continue to be EM. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2021 22:30:35 GMT
Wastech (WAESX) has China at only 10%.
Conservative fund like American Funds New World has China = 20%.
Fidelity Emerging markets (FEMKX) and ARTYX (Artisan Devel world) has China at > 30%.
FEASX (Fidelity Asia) has China at 50%.
Invesco has China at 55%
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Post by chang on Aug 21, 2021 0:53:12 GMT
At the time of this writing, the total stock markets of US & Dev xUS are at their 52 week highs, while EM is about 10% below its 52 week high. What does this forum say about this? Opportunity? Risk? I am buying the EM dip... Thanks. I frankly don't know the answer to your question, but this "dip" is starting to piss me off. I shoulda followed rhythmmethod out of MITEX. Ain't for nothin' that a good marching band follows the drummer. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 21, 2021 1:51:05 GMT
At the time of this writing, the total stock markets of US & Dev xUS are at their 52 week highs, while EM is about 10% below its 52 week high. What does this forum say about this? Opportunity? Risk? I am buying the EM dip... Thanks. I frankly don't know the answer to your question, but this "dip" is starting to piss me off. I shoulda followed rhythmmethod out of MITEX. Ain't for nothin' that a good marching band follows the drummer.Not ALWAYS true. In this case the drummer is smokin' rapper weed and threw a small portion of MATFX into BABA. We'll see how that turn-around goes! I'm still thinking a small, consolidated bet is my style in this instance. But I'm frequently wrong as testified by my 20 kids, using the rhythm-method. |
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 21, 2021 1:53:48 GMT
I frankly don't know the answer to your question, but this "dip" is starting to piss me off. I shoulda followed rhythmmethod out of MITEX. Ain't for nothin' that a good marching band follows the drummer.Not ALWAYS true. In this case the drummer is smokin' rapper weed and threw a small portion on MATFX into BABA. We'll see how that turn-around goes! I'm still thinking a small, consolidated bet is my style in this instance. But I'm frequently wrong as testified by my 20 kids, using the rhythm-method. Re: BABA … but not before you placed a ball in your mouth… if I recall. 🤣 <— rhythmmethod … that was the funniest line, laughed so hard when I saw your post. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 21, 2021 3:08:38 GMT
At the time of this writing, the total stock markets of US & Dev xUS are at their 52 week highs, while EM is about 10% below its 52 week high. What does this forum say about this? Opportunity? Risk? I am buying the EM dip... Thanks. I frankly don't know the answer to your question, but this "dip" is starting to piss me off. I shoulda followed rhythmmethod out of MITEX. Ain't for nothin' that a good marching band follows the drummer. , Among the 3 major market segments, I feel EM has the best risk/reward going forward (as of this writing EM is 13% below 52wk-high while US and Dev xUS are just a few points off their highs)--- this week I continued to buy more EM index ETF (IEMG). Unlike rhythmmethod, I buy the baskets not individual stocks  |
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Post by richardsok on Aug 21, 2021 4:24:59 GMT
I frankly don't know the answer to your question, but this "dip" is starting to piss me off. I shoulda followed rhythmmethod out of MITEX. Ain't for nothin' that a good marching band follows the drummer. , Among the 3 major market segments, I feel EM has the best risk/reward going forward (as of this writing EM is 13% below 52wk-high while US and Dev xUS are just a few points off their highs)--- this week I continued to buy more EM index ETF (IEMG). Unlike rhythmmethod , I buy the baskets not individual stocks Can't imagine making a foray into EMs with new money until the sector at least finds some support. As of now it continues in full bearish retreat. For a current position, I would consider looking at alternative EM funds (ETFs or OEFs) that are close to what you currently own. Realize the loss on Monday, then buy the new fund when you see some price stabilization. Hanging onto an eroding asset is, IMO, the worst choice.... you don't even harvest a tax loss. First rule of investing: "Cut your losers and let the winners run." |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 21, 2021 11:52:22 GMT
chang , Among the 3 major market segments, I feel EM has the best risk/reward going forward (as of this writing EM is 13% below 52wk-high while US and Dev xUS are just a few points off their highs)--- this week I continued to buy more EM index ETF (IEMG). Unlike rhythmmethod , I buy the baskets not individual stocks Can't imagine making a foray into EMs with new money until the sector at least finds some support. As of now it continues in full bearish retreat. For a current position, I would consider looking at alternative EM funds (ETFs or OEFs) that are close to what you currently own. Realize the loss on Monday, then buy the new fund when you see some price stabilization. Hanging onto an eroding asset is, IMO, the worst choice.... you don't even harvest a tax loss. First rule of investing: "Cut your losers and let the winners run." Have you guys looked at Utilities??? Just a suggestion. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 21, 2021 12:53:06 GMT
chang , Among the 3 major market segments, I feel EM has the best risk/reward going forward (as of this writing EM is 13% below 52wk-high while US and Dev xUS are just a few points off their highs)--- this week I continued to buy more EM index ETF (IEMG). Unlike rhythmmethod , I buy the baskets not individual stocks Can't imagine making a foray into EMs with new money until the sector at least finds some support. As of now it continues in full bearish retreat. For a current position, I would consider looking at alternative EM funds (ETFs or OEFs) that are close to what you currently own. Realize the loss on Monday, then buy the new fund when you see some price stabilization. Hanging onto an eroding asset is, IMO, the worst choice.... you don't even harvest a tax loss. First rule of investing: "Cut your losers and let the winners run." , fyi.. the money I am adding to EM is a core part of my portfolio which I do not intend to trade. My logic is slightly different: buy assets that are relatively cheaper. Could they get much more cheaper? YES. But, I got to keep nibbling at the market, no? |
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Post by richardsok on Aug 21, 2021 14:15:05 GMT
Can't imagine making a foray into EMs with new money until the sector at least finds some support. As of now it continues in full bearish retreat. For a current position, I would consider looking at alternative EM funds (ETFs or OEFs) that are close to what you currently own. Realize the loss on Monday, then buy the new fund when you see some price stabilization. Hanging onto an eroding asset is, IMO, the worst choice.... you don't even harvest a tax loss. First rule of investing: "Cut your losers and let the winners run." , fyi.. the money I am adding to EM is a core part of my portfolio which I do not intend to trade. My logic is slightly different: buy assets that are relatively cheaper. Could they get much more cheaper? YES. But, I got to keep nibbling at the market, no? Eddy -- NO. No you DON'T have to hold what you have and keep nibbling on the way down. I used to do that as a beginner and 3/4 of the time it was a mistake. We DON'T know where the bottom is until one begins to form -- and even then it's an informed guess. That said, I hope I'm wrong and it works out great for you. Good luck. |
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
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Post by galeno on Aug 23, 2021 12:44:23 GMT
First rule of investing: "Cut your losers and let the winners run."
Warren Buffet: "The stock market is a device for transfering money from the impatient to the patient."
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 23, 2021 13:07:39 GMT
richardsok , fyi.. the money I am adding to EM is a core part of my portfolio which I do not intend to trade. My logic is slightly different: buy assets that are relatively cheaper. Could they get much more cheaper? YES. But, I got to keep nibbling at the market, no? Eddy -- NO. No you DON'T have to hold what you have and keep nibbling on the way down. I used to do that as a beginner and 3/4 of the time it was a mistake. We DON'T know where the bottom is until one begins to form -- and even then it's an informed guess. That said, I hope I'm wrong and it works out great for you. Good luck. +1 In short, we call it, don't catch falling knives. If all stocks go down, there isn't a good option but in this case, while one asset keeps going down, another one is going up and you lose twice. But, I do agree that the more it goes down: 1) the last price is better than 2-6-8 weeks ago 2) eventually it will turn around.  |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2021 16:55:27 GMT
Has anyone made much in EM or INTL? I have been trying since 2009 with not much success. May be i keep choosing wrong intl & em funds.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 23, 2021 17:03:37 GMT
MATFX did well the last couple of years. But you need to have bought before that to catch the updraft. How could you expect the good years?
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Post by racqueteer on Aug 23, 2021 17:08:36 GMT
Has anyone made much in EM or INTL? I have been trying since 2009 with not much success. May be i keep choosing wrong intl & em funds. Obviously depends on how active one chooses to be. I know I stopped paying attention overseas many years ago. There are certainly times when it may outperform, but I'm not sure how much it truly contributes to diversification. There don't seem to be many (any?) occasions where trouble here doesn't translate into trouble THERE. All boats kind of thing, I think. |
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Post by chang on Aug 23, 2021 18:10:40 GMT
Has anyone made much in EM or INTL? I have been trying since 2009 with not much success. May be i keep choosing wrong intl & em funds. APDYX, MITEX and VWILX have all made money for me. Purchased approximately 2-4 years ago. |
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 23, 2021 21:33:28 GMT
Has anyone made much in EM or INTL? I have been trying since 2009 with not much success. May be i keep choosing wrong intl & em funds. Obviously depends on how active one chooses to be. I know I stopped paying attention overseas many years ago. There are certainly times when it may outperform, but I'm not sure how much it truly contributes to diversification. There don't seem to be many (any?) occasions where trouble here doesn't translate into trouble THERE. All boats kind of thing, I think.It sure seems like you’re right @raqueteer . I can’t think of a recent time when the US market crashed and International skyrocketed or moved in the opposite direction for any period. They seem to be directly correlated… so how much diversification via Intl is really necessary or beneficial? I’m just asking rhetorically because I have 20 percent there now. To the ops question, I’ve made some money in MFAIX, a little in MGGPX, Zero from FPADX, Negative from ARTYX, VERY Negative from FSEAX. And all that said, I’m considering adding PRGSX to marry with MGGPX in an account<- Probably better picking one or the other but I can’t seem to. Or, I’ll just add more to S&P or PARWX. |
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 24, 2021 16:55:05 GMT
As a trader, I just see a first buy sign for EEM. The 3 line break had a big green bar ( chart), see below. When MACD becomes positive, it's another confirmation ( chart). Attachments:
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 25, 2021 0:59:11 GMT
As a trader, I just see a first buy sign for EEM. The 3 line break had a big green bar ( chart), see below. When MACD becomes positive, it's another confirmation ( chart). The charts DO certainly confirm a buy sign… criss cross… For what it’s worth, my 2 EM funds FSEAX and ARTYX are both moving up the last 2 days at a good clip. Today alone up 4 and 3 percent. I do believe, however, that I will exit those two funds if they continue to perform positively and I am close to even with them. It’s a risk waiting for that to occur I know. In general, I think there are other places (less volatile) and where I have greater confidence… where I can place those funds. If it turns out I was completely wrong and EM takes off like a rocket, I’ll still sleep well and consider it was an explore experiment. |
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 4, 2021 4:15:14 GMT
As a trader, I just see a first buy sign for EEM. The 3 line break had a big green bar ( chart), see below. When MACD becomes positive, it's another confirmation ( chart). So far it looks good. The way I do it is to make 2-5% and get out. |
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Post by chang on Sept 4, 2021 9:46:43 GMT
As a trader, I just see a first buy sign for EEM. The 3 line break had a big green bar ( chart), see below. When MACD becomes positive, it's another confirmation ( chart). So far it looks good. The way I do it is to make 2-5% and get out. I don't understand this. Why get out of X, if X remains an attractive - possible the best - investment? Why not stick around and make 20% or 50%? I did a complete portfolio overhaul after the March crash. One of my buys was VWILX, which is up 107%. Another couple of successful buys were APDYX and MITEX, both up 101%. Less successful, but still satisfactory, investments were FEMKX (up 74%), VHCAX (up 88%), VWIAX (up 26%), VGWAX (up 41%), and VWEAX (up 23%). Why would I have wanted to exit any of these after making 3-5%? |
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