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Post by anitya on Aug 9, 2021 20:15:13 GMT
Unlce H, Richardsok, and other traders,
M* valuation for this stock is updated only 10 days ago and the stock retains a fair value estimate from M* of $90, which is nearly 50% higher than the current price. M* also says it is a wide moat stock with only a Medium uncertainty on their fair value estimate.
Its call options do not look that cheap. With places like the UK fully open and other countries catching up on vaccination rates, at what price would you consider this stock a buy?
Thank you for your thoughts.
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Post by richardsok on Aug 9, 2021 20:50:28 GMT
Unlce H, Richardsok, and other traders, M* valuation for this stock is updated only 10 days ago and the stock retains a fair value estimate from M* of $90, which is nearly 50% higher than the current price. M* also says it is a wide moat stock with only a Medium uncertainty on their fair value estimate. Its call options do not look that cheap. With places like the UK fully open and other countries catching up on vaccination rates, at what price would you consider this stock a buy? Thank you for your thoughts. Hm. BUD hit a high of 130 back in 2016 and has struggled up and down since -- but never near its highs. As a blue chip, you'd expect it might have come back stronger in the post-Covid recovery but after its 2019 high touched 100, it never thereafter broke over 80. In recent weeks it has trended steadily downward to 61 now, with a "neutral" rating from Merrill . Other big brokerages are mixed. My short term technicals: weak. Finviz reports EPS next year should be 3.60 up from 2.80 now. (I'm wondering if that's accurate). The good news: it reliably hits its projected numbers. Net revenues and income declining over the past two years, though. Yield: meh. Bud & Bud Lite are mature (tired?) brands getting a lot of headwinds from craft beers My two cents: if interested, I'd put BUD at the top of my watch list but wouldn't touch it until the down-trending stock finds support. Decent trading stock, IMO. Fairly low volatility and has tended to telegraph upcoming steep drops by periods of slow erosion first. FWIW. Good luck. |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 9, 2021 21:30:07 GMT
Unlce H, Richardsok, and other traders, M* valuation for this stock is updated only 10 days ago and the stock retains a fair value estimate from M* of $90, which is nearly 50% higher than the current price. M* also says it is a wide moat stock with only a Medium uncertainty on their fair value estimate. Its call options do not look that cheap. With places like the UK fully open and other countries catching up on vaccination rates, at what price would you consider this stock a buy? Thank you for your thoughts. I did not look at the fundamentals which is what M* probably based their estimate on. The very long term, monthly chart is a disaster looking for a place to land. The shorter turn daily chart indicates that there is probably support for the current decline at the $56/$58 range. If it pays a growing reliable dividend, it may be worth following long enough to see some technical improvements. The current Covid surge will not be helpful to it. |
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 9, 2021 22:29:09 GMT
uncleharley, ... when you say the current Covid surge will not be helpful to it... may I ask why? I would think that a surge would be helpful to stock like InBev. Just looking for your thoughts on that.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 9, 2021 22:38:34 GMT
uncleharley , ... when you say the current Covid surge will not be helpful to it... may I ask why? I would think that a surge would be helpful to stock like InBev. Just looking for your thoughts on that. My thought is that consumption of their products would decline if we have limited socializing. jmho. I have not checked the fundamentals. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 9, 2021 22:46:41 GMT
During the pandemic, the home consumption of beer and liquor grew but that in bars, restaurants and other entertainment places collapsed.
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 9, 2021 22:58:23 GMT
yogibearbull ... right. My assumption is that higher home consumption may also have a higher profit margin (less promo etc) but perhaps or likely - there's plenty of other factors to consider.
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Post by anitya on Aug 9, 2021 23:27:13 GMT
Thanks for all the replies. They make sense. Since I have not had alcohol drinks in a number of years, I did not know what is in and what is not. I put BUD on my watch list and if / when I itch to enter a buy trade, I may just buy some calls if they are cheaper than where they are today. The fundamentals / financial metrics do not look that great to me but I am not sure markets look at fundamentals these days when everything moves fast and cycles through.
Congratulations to Yogi on the recent COIN purchase below $220.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 10, 2021 0:13:42 GMT
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Post by bb2 on Aug 10, 2021 15:42:31 GMT
I bought BUD on 5-5-2020 and still have it as I got lazy and didn't sell according to plan; (end of pandemic).
Edit - I should add, knowing "what is in and what is not", as Anitya suggested would be helpful, has not worked for me as far as large beer companies go. (Increasingly any consumer company.) I do drink beer and small breweries have been far ahead of the big guys for a long time. By the time a big guy buys up a craft company, it's a little late, as new craft beers pop up all the time. Also, so much of sales of BUD are international, which are markets I have no insight into. Mexico, for example has terrible beer but they seem to like it. So I figure I have to rely on the financials. My purchase last year didn't rely heavily on any work at all, like looking at the numbers. It was purely a pandemic drop purchase. Figured restaurants and bars and gatherings and canoe trips would be back soon enough.
FWIW, I look into a garbage can at my golf course and there's plenty of evidence of a demand for bad beer.
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