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Post by chang on Jul 19, 2021 1:14:39 GMT
I'm interested in opinions on gold vs. gold miners. Obviously the chart of GDX vs GLD is relevant (below). Over 15 years, the metal has kicked the miners' butts. I suppose it would matter what the time frame is, i.e., a quick trade or a B&H. Let's assume 5 years, i.e., on the long side. Simplistic thinking: miners pay a dividend, and (being very Canada heavy) will benefit if the CAD/USD exchange rate increases. Buffett bought Barrick gold last year, but sold half of it after a few months (not very Buffett-like!). TIA. Attachments:
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 19, 2021 12:54:12 GMT
Very long term history and comparisons for trading stuff aren't very useful. Last week was notable for gold-miners in that they had sold off sharply while gold-bullion didn't selloff as much - just check hi-lo-low drops in the chart & lower panel below. But that may change today. GDX and GDXJ may be testing important support levels today. I will be watching for those supports to hold. My previous accumulations of GDXJ in March were around this area, so I am NOT rushing to add (I may add if the support holds). But those looking of entry may look at these levels when T/A looks negative. Some had noted inverse head-and-shoulder (around late-March low) in gold-miners but now regular head-and-shoulder may be developing (around late-May high). GDXJ stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43656995369 |
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Post by chang on Jul 19, 2021 13:11:21 GMT
Thanks yogi. With equity futures down sharply, it is likely that GDX will fall more than GLD today, i.e., a repeat rather than a reversal of Friday's action. Maybe an invitation to shift from metal to miners … maybe not …
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 19, 2021 13:35:54 GMT
I now have limit orders to buy in place for GDXJ and COIN (new crypto exchange). I am patient  . |
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 19, 2021 13:57:47 GMT
The only way I play gold is via Franco Nevada (FNV) which IPO'd about 15 years ago. They are the largest dividend player in gold. Get small yield plus alpha. Board has several hundred millions invested. FNV does not operate mines, develop properties or conduct operations. It provides financing to mine operators. Commodity diversification (mostly gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other platinum group metals, oil, gas and LNG. Growing business in working with copper miners). Historically low net debt and high line of credit. Have ATM which it uses each quarter to pay off any debt or use cash for deals. Very high margin business. Low overhead and fixed costs. FNV gets royalties and delivery of gold ("stream" part of business) which it sells. Does well when commodity prices increase. 10 year annualized rate of return is 15%. Potential risk: they do have an ongoing, multi year tax dispute with Canadian Gov't that I have no idea how it will be resolved. Edit: Bob Pisani interviewed creator of new inflation hedge ETF today. INFL. Here is CORRECT video: www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/19/etf-edge-is-long-term-inflation-a-big-issue-or-not.htmlI see FNV is in top 5. Also I see CRL and TPL. Historical performance is pretty amazing. Wondering why these never came to my attention before? |
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Post by anitya on Jul 19, 2021 19:14:12 GMT
I now have limit orders to buy in place for GDXJ and COIN (new crypto exchange). I am patient . +1. I too placed a limit order on COIN, with a conviction that it will hold the $208 support at least in the short term. I still have the trepidation that BTC may reach the low 20k we discussed many months ago and then COIN likely will be forced below $208. My buy is for a long-term hold. Edit: My COIN order did not fill. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 19, 2021 19:23:14 GMT
Gold and the miners are closely correlated but the miners tend to be more volatile. If you are a swing trader or short term trader go with the miners. I prefer ETFs, others prefer individual mines. If you are in for the longer term go with the bullion or a bullion based ETF, CEF, or whatever
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 19, 2021 22:11:32 GMT
5 years risk/reward performance of GDXJ,GDX,GLD ( link) GDXJ has about 3 times the volatility of GLD and GDX about 2.5...but GLD performance is better. Attachments:
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Post by chang on Jul 19, 2021 22:29:24 GMT
The stats clearly support uh’s comment that the miners are for trading and the metal is for holding. I echo richardsok’s comment (somewhere else) that gold is an unreliable hedge against inflation, rising interest rates, and/or stock market declines. I decided to end my experiment (with essentially no loss/gain). Decided I am better off just socking money away in SCHD and forgetting about it.
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 6:16:22 GMT
Gold and the miners are closely correlated but the miners tend to be more volatile. If you are a swing trader or short term trader go with the miners. I prefer ETFs, others prefer individual mines. If you are in for the longer term go with the bullion or a bullion based ETF, CEF, or whatever . Hi UH, May I get a current read from you on GDX and GDXJ? I am T/A blind but it seems GDX charting a lot better than GDXJ on a daily chart, with 50 day still above 200 day, end of June to beginning of July support no longer a resistance now, and MACD and RSI slightly better than that of GDXJ. On a weekly chart, both look uglier but GDX looks more promising. What do you need to see before one buys first tranche of GDX? Thanks. A |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 29, 2021 12:50:01 GMT
Gold and the miners are closely correlated but the miners tend to be more volatile. If you are a swing trader or short term trader go with the miners. I prefer ETFs, others prefer individual mines. If you are in for the longer term go with the bullion or a bullion based ETF, CEF, or whatever . Hi UH, May I get a current read from you on GDX and GDXJ? I am T/A blind but it seems GDX charting a lot better than GDXJ on a daily chart, with 50 day still above 200 day, end of June to beginning of July support no longer a resistance now, and MACD and RSI slightly better than that of GDXJ. On a weekly chart, both look uglier but GDX looks more promising. What do you need to see before one buys first tranche of GDX? Thanks. A I need to see Gold move above its moving averages. That might be today. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p14483447819&a=414745197&listNum=86 Right now the spot price of gold bullion is sitting on its 20 dema, just below the 200 dema, which is just below its 50 dema. All of which are just above a support level. A surge in trading volume today would very likely push gold above those levels and I would again be bullish on the miners. Fwiw, my preference would be the silver miners, but CEF is also an alternative in that space. When one moves, theyall will move. EDIT: They are off. Buy a little of each. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 29, 2021 13:46:16 GMT
If Canadian gold-silver closed-end fund with ticker CEF is meant, beware of related PFIC issues.
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 16:21:26 GMT
Hi UH, May I get a current read from you on GDX and GDXJ? I am T/A blind but it seems GDX charting a lot better than GDXJ on a daily chart, with 50 day still above 200 day, end of June to beginning of July support no longer a resistance now, and MACD and RSI slightly better than that of GDXJ. On a weekly chart, both look uglier but GDX looks more promising. What do you need to see before one buys first tranche of GDX? Thanks. A I need to see Gold move above its moving averages. That might be today. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p14483447819&a=414745197&listNum=86 Right now the spot price of gold bullion is sitting on its 20 dema, just below the 200 dema, which is just below its 50 dema. All of which are just above a support level. A surge in trading volume today would very likely push gold above those levels and I would again be bullish on the miners. Fwiw, my preference would be the silver miners, but CEF is also an alternative in that space. When one moves, theyall will move. EDIT: They are off. Buy a little of each. I woke up to notice that they are 3% up and gapped up at open. Seem like confirming moves up. Do you include pre-market action in Gap review? |
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 16:25:42 GMT
If Canadian gold-silver closed-end fund with ticker CEF is meant, beware of related PFIC issues. , I will not touch new CEFs in equities. Any interest in adding today to your GDXJ position? |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 29, 2021 16:32:11 GMT
If Canadian gold-silver closed-end fund with ticker CEF is meant, beware of related PFIC issues. , I will not touch new CEFs in equities. Any interest in adding today to your GDXJ position? I already added 10 days ago at $43.xx. CEF is a huge AUM and old Canadian gold-silver bullion (not equity) closed-end fund but it has US PFIC issues. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 16:49:23 GMT
yogibearbull , I will not touch new CEFs in equities. Any interest in adding today to your GDXJ position? I already added 10 days ago at $43.xx. CEF is a huge AUM and old Canadian gold-silver bullion (not equity) closed-end fund but it has US PFIC issues. Congrats on the buy! I did not know if your GDXJ and COIN filled last Monday. I was posting quickly and what I meant is anything reaching equity (SPY) volatility is off limits for me in CEF wrapper. Commodities being more volatile would be even more off limits in that wrapper. I need to first work off the MLP CEFs I bought in 2020. I remember CEF from you mentioning before. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 29, 2021 16:53:26 GMT
I need to see Gold move above its moving averages. That might be today. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p14483447819&a=414745197&listNum=86 Right now the spot price of gold bullion is sitting on its 20 dema, just below the 200 dema, which is just below its 50 dema. All of which are just above a support level. A surge in trading volume today would very likely push gold above those levels and I would again be bullish on the miners. Fwiw, my preference would be the silver miners, but CEF is also an alternative in that space. When one moves, theyall will move. EDIT: They are off. Buy a little of each. I woke to notice that they are 3% up and gapped up at open. Seem like confirming moves up. Do you include pre-market action in Gap review? The short answer is yes. Frequently one has to make the assumption that a security which has traded while the NYSE was closed did not really gap at the open of the NYSE. There is also the patern that is referred to as the GAP and Run. The best explanation for that pattern can be found at the Stockcharts School. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 18:00:30 GMT
I woke up to notice that they are 3% up and gapped up at open. Seem like confirming moves up. Do you include pre-market action in Gap review? The short answer is yes. Frequently one has to make the assumption that a security which has traded while the NYSE was closed did not really gap at the open of the NYSE. There is also the patern that is referred to as the GAP and Run. The best explanation for that pattern can be found at the Stockcharts School. Thanks. I thought this from Yogi's this past weekend Barron's update could be instructive regarding gap ups: "[M]ost of the gain (+28% over 12 months) in the SP500 is overnight (from the previous 4:00pm close to the next 9:30am open); the gain during the normal trading hours during the day was only +4%." P.S.: I notice that I am posting a lot more these days. |
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 29, 2021 18:50:36 GMT
I just listened to Fidelity webcast this morning with John Kosar from Asbury Research. He went through a lot of charts that I had hard time following. Would be easy follow for somebody like uncle harley but not me. He covered gold at end of presentation and showed some charts and his interpretation was "avoid gold" at this time. Interesting to me as my only gold play, Franco Nevada Corp (FNV) has been doing well.
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 29, 2021 19:31:51 GMT
I just listened to Fidelity webcast this morning with John Kosar from Asbury Research. He went through a lot of charts that I had hard time following. Would be easy follow for somebody like uncle harley but not me. He covered gold at end of presentation and showed some charts and his interpretation was "avoid gold" at this time. Interesting to me as my only gold play, Franco Nevada Corp (FNV) has been doing well. Was he making a long term or short term forecast? |
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 29, 2021 20:07:56 GMT
I just listened to Fidelity webcast this morning with John Kosar from Asbury Research. He went through a lot of charts that I had hard time following. Would be easy follow for somebody like uncle harley but not me. He covered gold at end of presentation and showed some charts and his interpretation was "avoid gold" at this time. Interesting to me as my only gold play, Franco Nevada Corp (FNV) has been doing well. Was he making a long term or short term forecast? Not sure uncleharley. He had my head spinning by that time. My guess he was talking a time from now to about 3 months from now but don't hold me to that. Maybe if you peruse his website you might find answer. Unfortunately Fidelity was not recording the webcast. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 29, 2021 20:49:13 GMT
His website wasn't a lot of help, but I found some his work on Stockcharts. It is dated so that has to be taken into consideration. His article on Stockcharts was about the ten yr tresurey rate and how it was overdue to rise significantly. The benefit of hindsight has shown that projection to be wrong so far. That does not mean he is currently wrong about gold, however anyone can say correctly that over the long term the price of anything will fluctuate and at some point it will be a bad invesment. His style does dazzle one with data, but I could not find anything that would cause me to be a fan of his.
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 29, 2021 22:03:22 GMT
Fair enough. I looked briefly on his website and nothing jumped out at me. I've been at Fidelity 3 years now and 2 presenters always catch my attention as they are the most popular views by Fidelity clients. This guy who presents every six months and Denise Chisolm who presented quarterly yesterday. Both are a wealth of information and I always pick up something I did not know.
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Post by chang on Aug 3, 2021 2:11:01 GMT
Right now the spot price of gold bullion is sitting on its 20 dema, just below the 200 dema, which is just below its 50 dema. All of which are just above a support level. A surge in trading volume today would very likely push gold above those levels and I would again be bullish on the miners. Fwiw, my preference would be the silver miners, but CEF is also an alternative in that space. When one moves, theyall will move. do you recommend either of SLVP or SIL? If anyone's curious, here are the indices which SLVP and SIL track: MSCI ACWI Select Silver Miners IMI Index www.msci.com/documents/10199/e7d157db-51cd-44da-ac3a-b3adf7fcf5b2Solactive Global Silver Miners Total Return Index www.solactive.com/wp-content/uploads/solactiveip/en/Factsheet_DE000A1DKEB9.pdf |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 3, 2021 12:32:22 GMT
My preference is SILJ, but when the breakout is executed they will all move up. Gold has moved above its moving averages but trading volume is lagging. A relevant headline or continued weakness in the USD should tweak some interest in the sector causing the momentum to move up.
Added by Edit; Overnight trading indicates that the value of the USD has continued to slide and precious metals seem to have caught a bid. The pundits say that hedgers are buying precious metals as a hedge against risks in their equity holdings. My interpretation of what the pundits are saying is that the U S stock market and the USD are turning down from their own weight.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 4, 2021 15:23:41 GMT
BTD in precious metals. No rush yet.
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Post by anitya on Aug 4, 2021 18:18:24 GMT
BTD in precious metals. No rush yet. Q for you Uncle: Could you please remind us if precious metals or long bonds act as a better hedge against equity market corrections? Do precious metal miners also have similar (albiet lower) hedging qualities? Thanks. |
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Post by ignatz on Aug 4, 2021 19:19:26 GMT
Here's a few stats to ponder. From 1996 through 2020, the SP had 3 years in which it had a negative return of at least 10 percent. 2001, 2002, and 2008. Here are some returns for those years: 2001: SP down 11.9; Vanguard precious metals up 18.3; GDX gold miners unavailable 2002: SP down 22.1; Vanguard precious metals up 33.4; GDX gold miners unavailable However 2008: SP down 37.0; Vanguard precious metals down 56.0; GDX gold miners down 26.1; XME metals and mining spider down 59.5 Following are CAGR percentages for 2007 through 2020. I think 2007 is the first full year GDX gold miners was available. SP; up 9.6
Vanguard total bond; up 4.4
GDX gold miners; down .1 XME metals and mining spider down .5 Vanguard precious metals; down 2.9 Vanguard precious metals is recently Vanguard global capital cycles and is only partially metals and mining. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 4, 2021 19:30:12 GMT
Vanguard VGPMX changed completely (name, objective; only the ticker remained) in September 2018 and is no longer a precious metals funds. Even before that, it was unusual in including PMs beyond gold and silver, such as platinum, palladium, etc.
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Post by anitya on Aug 4, 2021 19:57:41 GMT
Thanks, ignatz and Yogi.
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