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Post by Chahta on Aug 2, 2021 15:44:18 GMT
BABA appears to be packing on ~3.5% so far this AM. Sometimes I think going opposite the talking heads and looking for deep value, (of course acknowledging risk) makes sense to me. I'm not sure if there is a chart that would have predicted this or not. I'd be delighted to see it if it does exist. Is this a gap and run? No guarantees for the future of course, just calculated risk. Stay well. While I don't pretend to be a technical chart reader looking at BABA on StockCharts is interesting. It's been on a slide downhill since last year. Also might be interesting to learn about MACD and RSI values. LINK
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Post by anitya on Aug 3, 2021 23:53:17 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2021 0:28:54 GMT
On youtube clip, he mentions the Chinese stock decline as buying opportunity, but he is out of Chinese ADRs (buying or holding directly stocks in HK), underweight China and prefers Korea. Interesting.
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Post by Capital on Aug 4, 2021 1:35:07 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 4, 2021 3:53:39 GMT
FWIW, I'm asking this on assorted boards, trying to see where responses are fastest in coming... I have only a couple of Chinese stocks (ADRs of BABA and BYDDY) in my Roth IRA. I've been following only tangentially the hoo-ha over the possibility of those and other stocks being delisted, but decided to ask our community what they're doing, if anything. Selling? Staying put? Buying? I'm not going to get rid of my mutual funds that have holdings in Chinese firms, but I'm wondering if selling my individual stock holdings might be prudent. Note that I'd rather not...I like the potential of both firms going forward...BUT I have no wish to be left holding the proverbial bag, either. Opinions? Thanks, Dirk I'm not selling because I haven't own Chinese stocks directly over 10 years and my sock funds hardly had any either.
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Post by bb2 on Aug 6, 2021 1:15:01 GMT
Anyone read this interview in Barron's? With Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer of Matthews Asia. www.barrons.com/articles/asia-investor-china-crackdown-overblown-51627959228Seemed to try to limit CCP influence to education companies. China apologist, was what one commenter said. Yes, it did read like that. Interviewer might have asked him about the Uighers to get a better feel for the extent of Robert's stance. (Extent of CCP control over Robert.) Horrocks needs to say much more to convince me to invest in China.
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Post by chang on Aug 6, 2021 1:41:41 GMT
Anyone read this interview in Barron's? With Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer of Matthews Asia. www.barrons.com/articles/asia-investor-china-crackdown-overblown-51627959228Seemed to try to limit CCP influence to education companies. China apologist, was what one commenter said. Yes, it did read like that. Interviewer might have asked him about the Uighers to get a better feel for the extent of Robert's stance. (Extent of CCP control over Robert.) Horrocks needs to say much more to convince me to invest in China. Thanks for that link. I hadn't seen it before. Obviously Horrocks runs a bunch of funds that invest in China, so you have to expect a biased view. However, despite his obviously defensive tone, he makes a number of trenchant comments. I'd wager that he knows what he's talking about. Interesting comment: "China has no problems with big companies. They do have problems with big industrialists or business leaders who are trying to parlay that into political influence. We have seen that in Europe and the U.S. but China doesn't want to go down that road." Personally, I think he's right: in the US (and Europe, to a lesser extent) companies are increasingly using their products, services or power to wield political influence. Nike, Coke, Unilever, Facebook, Twitter ... the list is long. Perhaps we haven't seen major sell-offs in such companies because the current political leadership of the country is aligned with (or the direct beneficiary of) that political influence. If the leadership changes, we might see China-like crackdowns on companies trying to wield political influence. It's human nature that people are OK with companies wielding political influence, as long as it's the political influence that they agree with. In a sense, China is more consistent and fairer than the US. The Chinese government is opposed to giant industrial / commercial businesses and private enterprises wielding political influence of any kind. In the US, its OK when the government and private enterprise are politically aligned; but it's not OK when they are opposed. How stable is that? Staying on topic: 2021's China sell-off has all the earmarks to me of a big dip. Nowhere have I heard valid arguments why these companies' business models are flawed, or why their market share is eroding, or any other reason why their valuations should be reduced. Everything is politics. Hence, I expect short-term volatility, and long-term growth: in other words - dips to buy on. My only China-heavy investments are MIAPX and MITEX; however, various EM funds are also 30%+ Chinese equities (FEMKX, DODEX, APDYX). (VWILX is "diversified international" but China-heavy at 17%.) (SIGIX is lightening up on China; but that's OK: this fund is a nifty "diversifier".)
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Post by anitya on Aug 6, 2021 7:05:10 GMT
The following assertion is from the Barron's interview and there is a Chinese Govt document for the basis of this assertion:
"Beijing has said what they are going to do. They said they were concerned for some time about parts of the education industry, that they wanted to improve access to healthcare, were concerned about the real estate industry and speculation, wanted to increase access to Chinese capital markets, improve governance, focus on returns on investment, and improve efficiency. And they said they are looking at better environmental outcomes. They have been pretty specific and fairly open."
Nobody is a bigger critic of China's mercantile and territorial ambitions than I am. But I think it is naïve to expect China to rollover and cave in to external pressure about its internal affairs and I am sure any US politician that has spent even a day studying China's history knows that and these politicians' saber rattling is a deliberate attempt to distract the US electorate from their ineptitude and their inability to look past their own immediate domestic political consequences. In a way, they are jealous of China.
I understand Horrocks is not a completely disinterested party with the kind of AUM (and thus fees) he is sitting on. But do we really believe that once we get past the immediate problem of Covid we do not expect US to be active in anti-trust enforcements and financial market reforms, which could also impact US stock prices. I do not think China's emphasis not to let capital dictate at the expense of labor society's direction is such a bad thing. Of course, I will keep enjoying the importance of capital at the expense of US labor as long as it lasts but I suspect capital's pre-dominance could be up before I know it.
China's desire to not let outsiders get access to their data (under any pretext - audit or otherwise) is not without merit. Data (not just personal data) is digital gold. There is a reason why Big 4 accounting firms' consulting businesses are much bigger than their audit businesses and the audit business can have access to all sorts of clients' business data.
I have said in investment forums before that social media are the new opioids and we need to figured out how to use them judiciously and China chimed in this week.
If we do not like China's ways, we always have a choice not to buy their crap, invest in their companies, and not do business with their companies but the media that feeds us China info is not a disinterested party either. For them, it is easy to sell fear and propaganda than to present complete facts.
I am OK with another 25% or more sell off in China equities. There are not any bargains in the US market anyway.
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Post by bb2 on Aug 6, 2021 14:58:55 GMT
FYI. Today's WSJ: (Not expressing an opinion here, though I am waiting for a calmer, more predictable time to buy anything. Or crazy low valuations.) www.wsj.com/articles/china-corporate-crackdown-tech-markets-investors-11628182971If you don't have a subscription, the first few paragraphs...... "China's corporate crackdown is just getting started." - Article title. "In recent months, China has blown up what would have been the world’s largest initial public offering, launched probes into some of its biggest technology companies, and wiped out more than $1 trillion in market value while investors scramble for cover. There are many signs it isn’t over yet. Investors, analysts and company executives believe the government is just getting started in its push to realign the relationship between private business and the state, with a goal of ensuring companies do more to serve the Communist Party’s economic, social and national-security concerns. The government’s far-reaching ambitions under Xi Jinping promise serious and often unpredictable implications for business, these people say—and keeping foreign investors happy isn’t a priority."
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Post by retiredat48 on Aug 6, 2021 15:49:23 GMT
FWIW, I'm asking this on assorted boards, trying to see where responses are fastest in coming... I have only a couple of Chinese stocks (ADRs of BABA and BYDDY) in my Roth IRA. I've been following only tangentially the hoo-ha over the possibility of those and other stocks being delisted, but decided to ask our community what they're doing, if anything. Selling? Staying put? Buying? I'm not going to get rid of my mutual funds that have holdings in Chinese firms, but I'm wondering if selling my individual stock holdings might be prudent. Note that I'd rather not...I like the potential of both firms going forward...BUT I have no wish to be left holding the proverbial bag, either. Opinions? Thanks, Dirk I'm not selling because I haven't own Chinese stocks directly over 10 years and my sock funds hardly had any either. I'm glad you are not selling something you do not own??!! R48
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 6, 2021 15:58:37 GMT
It is possible to sell something that one doesn't own. That is called shorting .
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Post by bb2 on Aug 7, 2021 15:04:20 GMT
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Post by anitya on Aug 12, 2021 14:59:20 GMT
Another not so good day for China stocks. Is this part of normal EM volatility or an indication that bottom is not in yet for China? We have not heard yet from Norbert.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2021 0:35:35 GMT
And another bad day in China. No, I don't think this is normal volatility for EM, but mainly because of China's size. EM economies are of course developing and volatile. China's doesn't seem to be developing in an investor friendly manner right now. I have exposure in IEMG, AIA and BABA. Not huge holdings, but enough to concern me. I don't know what is really going on and don't think anyone else outside the PRC and our intelligence folks know either. Despite my concern, I recognize China's economy and place in the world are very important. I will probably stay the course.....but that could change! Not buying the dip/drop. No idea what is going on.
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Post by liftlock on Aug 18, 2021 13:57:49 GMT
And another bad day in China. No, I don't think this is normal volatility for EM, but mainly because of China's size. EM economies are of course developing and volatile. China's doesn't seem to be developing in an investor friendly manner right now. I have exposure in IEMG, AIA and BABA. Not huge holdings, but enough to concern me. I don't know what is really going on and don't think anyone else outside the PRC and our intelligence folks know either. Despite my concern, I recognize China's economy and place in the world are very important. I will probably stay the course.....but that could change! Not buying the dip/drop. No idea what is going on. When in doubt, it might be prudent to step aside.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2021 15:36:51 GMT
Thinking about it.
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Post by Norbert on Aug 18, 2021 16:25:12 GMT
Increased government "oversight" in China is spooking investors. Whether this is a buying opportunity or a value trap, that I don't know. But, I don't understand what's happening in China and prefer not to invest in something I don't understand.
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Post by racqueteer on Aug 18, 2021 16:56:00 GMT
Increased government "oversight" in China is spooking investors. Whether this is a buying opportunity or a value trap, that I don't know. But, I don't understand what's happening in China and prefer not to invest in something I don't understand.
I think that has to be the reaction of any reasonable investor. Speculation/betting is one thing, but investing kind of requires that something behave in a logical manner. I don't want to be invested in something that can be influenced by something coming out of a government with no obvious rationale other than because they can.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2021 18:16:43 GMT
Well, I wouldn't call investing in China speculating or betting. It is unpredictable at the moment. How much fear and contagion are playing a part - I don't know. There are issues in Asia - South China Sea - that can rear up at anytime. I still like investing in Taiwan. It's not easy. I have a small, but meaningful exposure. I am inclined, if anything, to sell BABA and stick with IEMG and AIA. Still thinking and need to research a bit more.
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