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Post by xray on Jul 8, 2021 16:27:50 GMT
The market is "pausing" to see what direction it will take. Since a lot of us have some fairly good CapGains in process, it is time [IMHO] to take "some" money off of the table and build a little more cash. My current data [COB Friday] indicates a decline in current CEF investing [Report Card grade now "69"] and where some money is being taken off of the table by some investors/traders....
Disclosure: Taking 10% of current portfolio in CapGains over five different securities and buying some undervalued securities....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Jul 8, 2021 16:59:46 GMT
Agree. Currently at 55% cash with 5% bearish hedge. Would be glad to find opportunities created by further market drop -- but I don't see a thing.
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Post by xray on Jul 8, 2021 21:43:39 GMT
The only opportunity I currently show as a BUY is "RSF" [9.21% dividend COB Friday with the MktPrc currently holding]. See "CEF of the month" posting made earlier. The announcement today might help:
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CHICAGO, July 08, 2021--(BUSINESS WIRE)--RiverNorth Specialty Finance Corporation (the "Fund") (NYSE: RSF), a closed-end fund, announced the final results of its repurchase offer for up to 5%, or 227,380 of its outstanding common shares. The repurchase offer expired at 5:00 P.M. Eastern Time on July 7, 2021.
Based on information provided by DST Systems, Inc., the depositary for the repurchase offer, a total of 2,645,722 shares were submitted for redemption and 227,380 shares were repurchased. In accordance with the terms and conditions of the repurchase offer, because the number of shares submitted for redemption exceeds the number of shares offered to purchase, the Fund will purchase shares from tendering shareholders on a pro-rata basis (disregarding fractional shares). The purchase price of repurchased shares is equal to the Fund's net asset value per share calculated as of the close of regular trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 7, 2021, which is equal to $20.11 per share....
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The way I review this particular CEF is that it has a very good dividend [to live with in any surprise "short term" down market (during any panic selling)] and continues to have consistent very good analysis numb3rs wk-to-wk. The NAV is currently basically the same as the current MktPrc and is basically equal to the repurchase price paid by RSF. If/when the market would recover from a dip, RSF would be expected to go back to the original "analysis numb3rs" [if not higher because of the new investor thinking of "value investing"]....
My current portfolio has a current dividend return [ROI] of 9.42% [which I can live with during any down market]. However, always however's, the dividend could go lower by -2% [dividend cuts going forward in a consistent declining market (based on past experience)] and I would have to be happy with the approximately a 7% ROI. I, in general [as a "Income Investor], "VERY SELDOM" sell at a CapLoss and normally ride out my investments [since we consider that we would not have made the investment in the first place if it were not considered a winner in "both" up/down markets]. There are always exceptions, like the 2008/2009 crash where many of us sold out and again started buying back early in 2009 [under plan A & B].
Disclosure: Currently, as of today, some of us continue to hold a full phase #3 position in RSF [6%-8% of portfolio] with a CapGain of $2594.00....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
Eddie
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 9, 2021 15:45:13 GMT
Hi Eddie .... RSF is a tricky read for me as I have not followed its ins and outs. I believe it underwent a change in past but I forget. And I don't understand the share buy back. But I do hold OPP. Would you comment on OPP. I like it because it gives me some access (although not a direct position but a "mirror") into DoubleLine's Opportunistic Income Strategy which Gundlach has 9 digits of his own money invested, and extra digit than he has invested in in DoubleLine's Total Return fund. Mahalo.
Btw, in Sept OPP has a decision point on whether to remain a CEF or opt to convert to an OEF.
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Post by xray on Jul 9, 2021 19:36:03 GMT
paulr888, 1... Your: I don't understand the share buy back? When one of our investments gets "pricey" or there is news that drives the MktPrc higher, we think and take CapGain by selling 30% to 50% of the security in question and then "buying" back again "IMMEDIATELY" [with the selling action] the same investment at the " higher MktPrc". We now have the same [Qty of shares] "quality" investment in our portfolio. The result of our transaction is that we captured the CapGain [current MktPrc minus the current "average MktBuyPrc we previously paid] and the "previous" dividend will slip a little because of the " NEWer higher average MktBuyPrc" that is now higher.... Using this type of methodology, our CapGain is "always" going higher [in a up market] but our dividend will be "slowly" going lower "EACH TIME WE DO THIS PROCESS". NORMALLY, WHEN IT DROPS BELOW 8.5%, many of us will reduce our shares considerably.... IMPORTANT: Your excel worksheet has to be designed to capture all of the information described above [and then some] to make the system work for you.... You may have noticed that the "INSIDERS" are using this methodology for capturing CapGains [in and out with the "same" cost/shares]. See below: Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction Volume or Value Price Jul 2/21 Jun 30/21 Hearle Michael Jason Direct Ownership Subscription Rights (right to buy) X - in- or at-the-money exercise -2,038 $13.56 Jul 2/21 Jun 30/21 Hearle Michael Jason Direct Ownership Common shares of beneficial interest X - in- or at-the-money exercise 2,038 $13.56 Jul 2/21 Jun 30/21 McNally Kevin Joseph Direct Ownership Subscription Rights (right to buy) X - in- or at-the-money exercise -167 $13.56 Jul 2/21 Jun 30/21 McNally Kevin Joseph Direct Ownership Common shares of beneficial interest X - in- or at-the-money exercise 167 $13.56 Jul 2/21 Jun 30/21 Clough Capital Partners, L.P. Direct Ownership Subscription Rights (right to buy) X - in- or at-the-money exercise -14,199 $13.56 Jul 2/21 Jun 30/21 Clough Capital Partners, L.P. Direct Ownership Common shares of beneficial interest X - in- or at-the-money exercise 14,199 $13.56 May 24/21 May 21/21 Hearle Michael Jason Direct Ownership Common shares of beneficial interest P - Open market or private purchase 100 $15.46 May 24/21 May 21/21 Hearle Michael Jason Direct Ownership Common shares of beneficial interest P - Open market or private purchase 100 $15.31 Something to think about if you have any interest in this type of methodology.... 2... Your: Would you comment on OPP. I like OPP [continues on my "Watch List"] but had to sell it [took the CapGain] in the second Qtr because of "bad numb3rs" with a Report card grade of 50 [marginal fail], Power reading of 64 [too low for recovery in the short term], Sell code of 4 [Sell now watch list], Star Rating of 4 [Sell alert]. Currently, using the reference numb3rs, OPP currently has a Report card grade of 53, power reading of 64, with a sell code of 5 [portfolio "RISK"], and a star rating of "3" [sell now]. Currently trades at a premium with a 12.11% dividend that my data shows [dividend] as non-sustainable [currently 428 and needs >+582].... Hope this helps a little.... Live Long and Prosper.... Eddie....
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Post by xray on Jul 12, 2021 15:13:13 GMT
Market appears to be "FULLY VALUED" [looking at analysis data last week] so some of us have captured "all" [basically] of our remaining CapGains in our portfolio's [COB this past Friday]. We are currently now at 20% "cash" and we will wait the week out to see what the next shoe drop will be. Too many variables [plus/minus] out there [IMHO]....
Portfolio now has a current a 9.28% dividend average [to live with going forward] with a current 13-wk weekly performance rating of 7.70stars, past week rating of 296 [want 300 minimum], with a +1.02 discount, and a +0.201 Rf [portfolio risk factor]. My data indicates a declining NAV in the value type securities with dividends now declining [MktPrc's increasing in a alarming way and driving the lower dividends but helping CapGains] along with declining intrinsic factors....
It has been another exceptional year [similar to last year where our Goals and Objectives were met early] and our current portfolio's should show that our current holdings should hold up well in both up/down changing markets. Looking at our portfolio turnover, we sold out 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 securities in the 2nd Qtr [none so far in the 3rd Qtr] for substantial CapGains....
Looking at out charts for the 15 existing securities in portfolio, we show:
Chart #1 Performance:
Report Card Rating Average: 77
Power Rating: 85
Chart #2 [Sell Codes]
No Risk ... 2
Low Risk ... 3
Normal Risk: 3
Neutral: 3
At Risk: 1 [Wash Sale possible if taxable account]
Very Risky: 3 [Oil/RO's]
Beyond Reasonable Risk: 0 [sell immediately]
Chart #3 [Report Card Ratings]:
Perfect Score >89: 4
Very Good 80-89: 5
Average 70-79: 1
Below Average 60-69: 2
Marginal Fail 50-59: 2
Failing <50: 1
Chart #4 [Portfolio Safety]
No Risk - Phase 0 [0-2%]: 1
Low Risk - Phase #1 [2-4%]: 5
Normal Risk - Phase #2 [4-6%]: 4
At Risk - Phase #3 [6-8%]: 2
High Risk Level - Phase #4 [8-10%]: 3
Very High Risk Level: Phase #5: 0
ROA: 0.5637
ROE: 0.0928
EPS: 1.49
Live Long and Prosper....
Eddie....
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 12, 2021 16:56:04 GMT
thanks xray...
R48
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Post by xray on Jul 18, 2021 17:59:30 GMT
Market continues to be "FULLY VALUED" [looking at current analysis data] so some of us have captured "some additional" CapGains in our portfolio's [COB by Monday]. We are currently now at 25% "cash" and we will wait the week out to see where the next shoe will drop. Too many variables [plus/minus] out there [IMHO]....
Portfolio now has a current a 9.32% dividend average [to live with going forward] with a current 13-wk weekly performance rating of 7.89stars, past week rating dropping to 283 [want 300 minimum for current investing], with a better +1.04 discount, and a "increasing" +0.179 Rf [portfolio risk factor]. My data indicates a declining NAV in the value type securities with dividends now increasing with the current declines in MktPrc's....
It has been another exceptional year [similar to last year where our Goals and Objectives were met very early] and our current portfolio's should show that our current holdings should hold up well in both up/down changing markets. Looking at our portfolio turnover, we sold out 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 securities in the 2nd Qtr [none so far in the 3rd Qtr] for substantial CapGains....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jul 19, 2021 16:05:48 GMT
In down markets, there is "OPPORTUNITY" [IMHO]....
Very good day to look at our current portfolio's for "continuing" value and "INCREASING our DIVIDENDS" [going forward]. Added one new security to portfolio [against a insider buy MktPrc] from my watch list [10star] and added additional shares to three others [2 of them continuing 10star] . One of the better tools you may want to use in your analysis is to look at past and current "INSIDER BUYS" this week where the insiders will be adding shares to their undervalued securities [when they occur]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jul 20, 2021 14:41:04 GMT
Was a very good day yesterday for income oriented investors [buying selected undervalued securities]. Appears we are reading the market correctly [at this point in time]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jul 20, 2021 19:25:40 GMT
My previous post:
In down markets, there is "OPPORTUNITY" [IMHO]....
Very good day to look at our current portfolio's for "continuing" value and "INCREASING our DIVIDENDS" [going forward]. Added one new security to portfolio [against a insider buy MktPrc] from my watch list [10star] and added additional shares to three others [2 of them continuing 10star] . One of the better tools you may want to use in your analysis is to look at past and current "INSIDER BUYS" this week where the insiders will be adding shares to their undervalued securities [when they occur]....
-----------
Looking at my current computer analytical stats:
On average, what the MktPrc's are doing "CURRENTLY [in recovery]" from yesterday's "substantial down" day where both the DOW and Russell 2k were down -10%:
Current recovery in "MktPrc":
1... 0.00 to +0.20 excellent - bottom base established for safety of principal
2... 0.00 to -0.25 lower end for normal current loss
3... -0.25 to -0.33 higher end for normal current loss
4... >-0.33 Failing
Looking at my current portfolio stats against the above:
1... 3
2... 9
3... 2
4... 3
One single opinion of the many I am sure
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jul 26, 2021 18:17:54 GMT
Market continues to be "FULLY VALUED" [looking at my current analysis data COB Friday] so some of us have finished capturing the CapGains in our portfolio's [COB Friday]. We are finishing the 2021 year with CapGains of 42% [down from 46.8% last year] with 15% "cash" remaining. Too many variables [plus/minus], going forward, out there with a Market that is continually overpriced and going higher[IMHO]....
A lot of us "REMEMBER 1928" [2008 latest fiasco] and the 13 years of recovery that followed [WW2 saved us]....
Portfolio is finished on Friday with a current a 9.36% dividend average to live with going forward (till the end of the year)] with a current 13-wk weekly performance rating of 6.19stars [Neutral market], with this past week rating dropping to 274 [want 300 minimum for current investing], with a +1.01 discount [overpriced verification], and a +0.252 Rf [risk factor]. My data indicates a declining NAV [and book values] in the value type securities with dividends now increasing with the current declines in MktPrc's. We can expect a current "possible" low of +7.36% dividend for any market low point [through the end of the year based on historicals]....
It has been another exceptional year [similar to last year where our Goals and Objectives were met very early] and our current portfolio's should show that our current holdings should hold up very well [for the rest of the year] in both up/down changing markets. Looking at our portfolio turnover, we sold out 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 securities in the 2nd Qtr [none currently in the 3rd Qtr] for substantial CapGains....
Should the market turn back to "value investing" and the numb3rs go back to a 13-wk performance rating of +8.00% for "both" the current portfolio and Watch List, some of us will again return to the market....
See you possibly in the Fall or next year [hopefully]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by anitya on Jul 26, 2021 20:22:10 GMT
"A lot of us "REMEMBER 1928"" caught my eye and I had to read the rest of the post which ended with -
"Should the market turn back to "value investing" and the numb3rs go back to a 13-wk performance rating of +8.00% for "both" the current portfolio and Watch List, some of us will again return to the market....
See you possibly in the Fall or next year [hopefully]...."
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Post by xray on Jul 27, 2021 14:56:08 GMT
Bottom Line anitya:
You can't fight a market that makes it appear that it is always going higher [with more money coming into the market]. We just have to remember 1928 and adjust our investing accordingly [IMHO]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 2, 2021 16:07:26 GMT
Market continues to be "FULLY VALUED" [looking at my current analysis data COB Friday] so some of us are "TRYING" to capture the remaining CapGains in our portfolio's [COB Friday]. We are now finishing the 2021 year with CapGains of 43.7% [down from 46.8% last year] with 9.5% "cash" remaining. Too many variables [plus/minus], going forward, out there with a Market that is continually overpriced and wanting to go much higher[IMHO]....
A lot of us "REMEMBER 1928" [2008 latest fiasco] and the 13 years of recovery that followed [WW2 saved us]....
Portfolio remains completed on with a current 9.15% dividend average to live with going forward (till the end of the year)] with a current 13-wk weekly performance rating of 7.16stars [1st Buy signal], this past week performance rating increasing to 286 [want 300 minimum for current investing], with a -0.98 discount [overpriced verification], and a very positive of +0.308 Rf [risk factor]. My data indicates declining NAV's [and book values] in the value type securities with dividends continuing to increase with the current declines in MktPrc's. We can expect a current "possible" low of +7.15% dividend for any market low point [through the end of the year based on historicals]....
It has been another exceptional year [similar to last year where our Goals and Objectives were met very early] and our current portfolio's should show that our current holdings should hold up very well [for the rest of the year] in both up/down changing markets. Looking at our portfolio turnover, we sold out 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 securities in the 2nd Qtr [none currently in the 3rd Qtr] for substantial CapGains with no CapLosses taken....
Should the market turn back to "value investing" and the numb3rs go back to a 13-wk performance rating of +8.00% for "both" the current portfolio and Watch List, some of us will again return to the market....
See you possibly in the Fall or next year [hopefully]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 19, 2021 21:51:11 GMT
Reference my last post
on Aug 2, 2021 at 12:07pm
1... Market continues to be "FULLY VALUED" [looking at my current analysis data COB Friday] so some of us are "TRYING" to capture the remaining CapGains in our portfolio's [COB Friday]. We are now finishing the 2021 year with CapGains of 43.7% [down from 46.8% last year] with 9.5% "cash" remaining. Too many variables [plus/minus], going forward, out there with a Market that is continually overpriced and wanting to go much higher[IMHO]....
2... A lot of us "REMEMBER 1928" [2008 latest fiasco] and the 13 years of recovery that followed [WW2 saved us]....
3... Portfolio remains completed on with a current 9.15% dividend average to live with going forward (till the end of the year)] with a current 13-wk weekly performance rating of 7.16stars [1st Buy signal], this past week performance rating increasing to 286 [want 300 minimum for current investing], with a -0.98 discount [overpriced verification], and a very positive of +0.308 Rf [risk factor]....
4... My data indicates declining NAV's [and book values] in the value type securities with dividends continuing to increase with the current declines in MktPrc's. We can expect a current "possible" low of +7.15% dividend for any market low point [through the end of the year based on historicals]....
5... It has been another exceptional year [similar to last year where our Goals and Objectives were met very early] and our current portfolio's should show that our current holdings should hold up very well [for the rest of the year] in both up/down changing markets. Looking at our portfolio turnover, we sold out 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 securities in the 2nd Qtr [none currently in the 3rd Qtr] for substantial CapGains with no CapLosses taken....
Should the market turn back to "value investing" and the numb3rs go back to a 13-wk performance rating of +8.00% for "both" the current portfolio and Watch List, some of us will again return to the market....
See you possibly in the Fall or next year [hopefully]....
----------
Update:
1... Market remains "OVER Valued" currently and waiting for earnings to catch up [hopefully]. Some of us added another 1% CapGain and increased our cash position from 20% to 25% "CASH" [as the market continues to decline]. We can't fight the market and think that we know better than the market traders and hedge funds. My data shows a continuation of the our previous decline....
2... We must continually remind ourselves of "1928/29" as the latest generations don't even remember what happened [or care]....
3... Portfolio remains completed on with a current 9.61% dividend average to live with going forward (till the end of the year)] with a current 13-wk weekly performance rating of 7.17stars [1st Buy signal] and with this past week performance rating decreasing to 284 [need 300 minimum for current investing], with a -0.96 discount [overpriced verification], with a negative risk factor now of +0.283 Rf [portfolio risk has been increasing wk-to-wk]]....
4... My data indicates declining NAV's [and book values] in the value type securities with dividends [and distributions] continuing to increase with the current declines in MktPrc's [in the short term]. We can expect a current "possible" low of +7.50% dividend for any drastic market low point [through the end of the year (and beyond) based on current historicals]....
5... Some of us experienced our first CapLoss but hope to recapture this on any market turnaround....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Chahta on Sept 19, 2021 22:46:32 GMT
Since this is the CEF forum, how about PFN/PFL? They have come down hard. Might they be a play like PTY?
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Post by richardsok on Sept 19, 2021 23:02:01 GMT
Largely agree with X-ray's thinking.
The bullish argument for the present market is that there is a large amount of cash sitting on the sidelines with would-be opportunistic hopefuls ready to return to equities. In the recent past these traders have kept market dips brief and shallow. Buy-the-dips tactic has worked for a long time now. I read a good deal of complacency in some of the remarks I see posted here and elsewhere.
However, even with its most recent drops, the current market is still largely priced for perfection. It is not improbable that past patterns might reverse -- we might now see "shallow and brief" RALLIES in a generally ugly season going forward.
If so, the nimble trader could have a big advantage over the buy-and-hold investor.
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Post by xray on Sept 20, 2021 14:15:49 GMT
richardsok, Your: 1... The bullish argument for the present market is that there is a large amount of cash sitting on the sidelines with would-be opportunistic hopefuls ready to return to equities. In the recent past these traders have kept market dips brief and shallow. 2... Buy-the-dips tactic has worked for a long time now. 3... I read a good deal of complacency in some of the remarks I see posted here and elsewhere. However, even with its most recent drops, the current market is still largely priced for perfection. 4... It is not improbable that past patterns might reverse -- we might now see "shallow and brief" RALLIES in a generally ugly season going forward. 5... If so, the nimble trader could have a big advantage over the buy-and-hold investor. ---------- " Sole Opinion" 1... There is a lot of cash on the sidelines [and building]. The smart money has been building cash with their continual investments [and with traders selling for CapGains as the market continually declines]. The smart money is watching what the "normal" small type investor is doing [waiting for further signals].... 2... The market is expected to dip for a few additional days and give us some buy possibilities. Not all dips are investable but [small] selective buying from our portfolio winners is very probable. Some " PANIC SELLING" is expected today and will drive some us to observe some very good bargains. Some of us will probably wait until 11/12 o'clock to check for the excessive bargains as some afternoon buying should be taking place.... 3... Complacency is normally dependent on a investors knowledge of historical patterns and the amount of " RISK" one wants to take. In my case, being a "Dividend income oriented investor" [High Yield/CapGain], my excel worksheets are tied to risk type investing. There is a possibility that some of us could go to 50% cash and even 100% like some of us did in 2008. We weren't out long but came back in during the first Qtr of 2009. Currently, my data shows 25% cash needed for current risk takers.... 4... Most analysts this morning are saying that they recommend selling the rallies [and getting out of the market] for the short term [September]. September is normally a down market for the market [historically].... 5... The nimble trader will probably get slaughtered in the "CAPGAIN" category as they will continually sell with growing CapLosses and losing their previous CapGains that were attained for the current year. Most of us have "locked in" our CapGains for the year and have no intention of selling out for losses [unless reaching 2008 levels [which is not in the cards currently IMHO].... " ALL" investors must realize that the market is " DOWN" today and our individual portfolio's are " EXPECTED TO BE DOWN". What we should be doing is analyzing how the market reacted to our individual portfolio holdings so we can be "proactive" [not reactive] in adding shares to our performing securities [not down as much as expected]. If we react too early to "EARLY Panic", we will be the losers in selling a probable winner to a smart trader. Not something some of us want to do.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 20, 2021 18:12:52 GMT
No bargains found for today. Looks like a current 5% pullback correction and the first for the year. Many of us have been expecting this [and more in the short term]. 15%-20% "maximum" pullback is expected [IMHO] ....
If we are not prepared to invest our "CASH" money [going forward] during the pullback, then the statement "buying low" will not be valid ....
We have a "LOT" of new investors with 20-30 year time horizons so the market will be going up "again"....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 20, 2021 19:16:49 GMT
Short players are currently coming in to cover their short positions driving the market lower. We have had seven corrections this year so a 5% pullback should not be of immediate concern [IMHO]. The current problem, as I see it, is that investors have had it too good and don't want to know that we can lose money as well as making it. Real shocker for some....
Live Long and Prosper.......
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 20, 2021 20:10:03 GMT
That was a strong close for the S&P. I assume you meant short covering drives the market higher, not lower.
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Post by richardsok on Sept 20, 2021 20:29:04 GMT
Short players are currently coming in to cover their short positions driving the market lower. We have had seven corrections this year so a 5% pullback should not be of immediate concern [IMHO]. The current problem, as I see it, is that investors have had it too good and don't want to know that we can lose money as well as making it. Real shocker for some....
Live Long and Prosper....... 5%, X? I see SPY only about 2.3% down at its worst. (VOOG nadir -2.9%). In the end, big yawn. Agree; never got low enough to scoop up anything except, for me, a return to some KNOP at about 3:30 and added a bit to CAPL midday. Mere nibbles. Could be interesting week if slide resumes tomorrow or Wednesday morning, setting up a classic "two sharp cracks precede deep plunge" pattern. Holding my hedges . |
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 20, 2021 20:44:31 GMT
From Sep 2, indexes are down between 4% to 5%. Evergrande issue isn't resolved. All indexes are now BELOW 50-dMA; R2000 and DJ Transports are even BELOW 200-dMA. LINK |
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Post by richardsok on Sept 20, 2021 21:08:15 GMT
I was talking about TODAY'S action, yogi.
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Post by xray on Sept 20, 2021 22:01:46 GMT
Looking at "Numb3rs" [which are everything IMHO] for today's down market:
We are closer to the end of the market decline than the beginning. Why am I and others saying this??
Looking at the index declines:
Russell -8%
NasDaq -5%
S&P -5%
Looking at the average stock declines from their high's:
Russell -29%
NasDaq -15%
S&P -13%
Bottom Line [IMHO]:
Buy the dip "carefully" with extensive analysis of what we are buying.
The lights will be burning late tonight with our computers....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 20, 2021 22:03:47 GMT
Some investors might want to look at the 200 day moving average and not the 50day moving average [more dependable on what is really going on]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by chang on Sept 20, 2021 22:10:48 GMT
That was a strong close for the S&P. I assume you meant short covering drives the market higher, not lower. On the strength of the close, I didn't continue my selling today. But if there's no bounce, I will continue selling tomorrow. Greetings from Long Island, NY. |
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Post by richardsok on Sept 21, 2021 1:27:24 GMT
Some investors might want to look at the 200 day moving average and not the 50day moving average [more dependable on what is really going on].... Live Long and Prosper.... 200DMA more dependable? Debatable, X. (IMO) The word "dependable" in technical analysis is of little use unless your chosen indicator is a reliable and TIMELY buy/sell trigger. And how does one go about applying the 200DMA? Sell when the SPY price crosses under it? Currently, that won't be unless SPY falls to 409, another 25 points down , or 45 points from the top -- accepting a full 10% portfolio loss. If such a drop were to happen to a portfolio of my size, I could live with it, but I wouldn't be pleased , and I certainly won't plan to use it .... the 10% loss might very well be a "sell at the bottom" trap and pop right back up the week after you sell. Stock prices zig-zag. Moving averages less so. That's why we apply them. "Trade when a zig-zagging price crosses your moving average" leads one to trade too often if you won't readily accept 10% value losses. Far superior, IMO are the Parabolic SAR, or the MACD historigram or, for fewest trades, a 5-day moving average crossover of the 20-day MA applied on a six-month chart -- assuming, always you're using a low-volatility trading asset.EX: suppose you invested in VOOG following the 5 x 20 cross as your trigger. You'd have BOUGHT mid-March at about 230. (first bullish cross-over) You'd SELL early May for about 248. (18 pt gain) You'd have BOUGHT again around May 25 at about 248 after the dip recovered. You'd SELL about Sept 15 at 281 (another 31 pt gain) -- and you'd have AVOIDED the recent plunge. Note; the two MAs came close to touching on about Aug 20, but did not cross. Worst case scenario, if you mistakenly sold at that point you'd have exited at about 274 -- only a 24 point gain since your previous buy --- and if you faithfully followed your signals, you'd be right back in the market the next day for still more gains until Sept 15. This is not a fluke. The results are not always so dramatic, of course . Flattish patterns do exist, we know. But one can trace stories like this all day long, if we confine ourselves to low volatility assets. You are, in effect, eliminating emotional/opinion/bias choices in trying to apply "sell losers and let winners run" rule. |
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 21, 2021 11:30:50 GMT
That was a strong close for the S&P. I assume you meant short covering drives the market higher, not lower. On the strength of the close, I didn't continue my selling today. But if there's no bounce, I will continue selling tomorrow. Greetings from Long Island, NY. Early morning futures and overnight trading indicates we will probably get a bounce this morning but, some Asian markets are still on a holiday. Evergrandes next debt payment is due on thursday. Reportedly Evergrande holds $300 billion of U S debt. Mostly MBS. "If" sold, they could make their debt payment. QE+ on the way?  I'll wait and see. EDIT: It should also be noted that Evergrande missed at least one payment on Monday. |
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I'll wait and see.