|
Post by liftlock on Jun 11, 2021 1:54:10 GMT
.............I did vow not to allow my PV to fall below a certain level. So as I approach that level, I will start shedding assets. Exactly what will trigger me to start I don't know, but I have some specific thresholds in mind. I'm not going to watch my PV in freefall again. I recently came across Mojena.com....looks plausible as a timing mechanism, but a bit of examination shows that there are periods as long as 3 or 4 years when it has been dead wrong. No timing system will be perfect. One should expect whips saws when using a timing system. False signals are price one pays for downside protection. Timing systems can be used dynamically adjust one's allocation to equities. e.g. based on Mojena's scores. Most timing systems will not improve long term returns. Their value lies in reducing large long term drawdowns and improving risk adjusted returns. Here are several other ideas: The ETF bully uses a 30 week moving average. Free Newsletter with buy, sell signals, and relative strength scores for ETFs. theetfbully.com/. Dual Momentum. aka GEM. Provides a simple method to be in or out of equities and to dynamically allocate a portfolio between domestic and international equities. A summary of this strategy is here: einvestingforbeginners.com/global-equities-momentum-ansh/The historical record is listed the authors website: www.optimalmomentum.com/global-equities-momentum/A spreadsheet for following the strategy: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jc8d46E_p84xbqjOgwuvBVKRc8YMvM2_Po8IW4nKGsA/edit#gid=0Anyone interested in Dual Momentum should read the authors book. It walks the reader through the historical evidence supporting the strategy and provides the reader with the necessary confidence to follow it. Having the confidence and mindset to execute a timing strategy is everything as they can be psychologically difficult to do. One is selling after the market has already declined one is buying when there is still blood on the streets. Decision Moose: Timing signals are more frequent than the above. Excellent weekly newsletter at a low cost. DecisionMoose.com. When all three timing systems are out of the market, one can conclude the market conditions for stocks are not good. Paid Timing Services - I that interest me. I don't subscribe: Fibtimer: This service is reasonably priced and has been around for a long time. Timing signals for several market segments including gold. Discounted promotions. I used to subscribe. www.fundbuster.com/index.html This service uses ideas that grew out of the old FastTrack user group. It ranks funds ETFs based onRelative Strength, Risk adjusted performance, and uses timing signals to enter and exit positions. Fast track is known for haveing high quality dividend adjusted price data for funds. Asbury Research: John Kosar has given several webinars for Fidelity and one for AAII. Impressive technician who makes things simple for the average person to understand. His service is around $1500 per year. Recent Webinar he gave for AAII: youtu.be/vSoNlt5DL5w www.taastrategies.com/about - Service with a focus on preserving capital. Interesting statistical data on withdrawal rates supported by each strategy. allocatesmartly.com/ for other ideas. One other addition: NICHOLAS ATKESON of Delta Investment management has a simple timer that uses the Leading Economic Indicators and the Yield Curve as a way to look out for recessions: He has a free weekly newsletter: deltaim.comUtube video discussess his philosophy: www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-kRfm6_NdsBook: www.amazon.com/dp/B00EHIEF5C/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Jun 11, 2021 6:29:49 GMT
SCHY index info can be had at the link Chang had originally posted plus the actual ETF info is at Schwab website. The stats are pretty good but one should check the info for suitability in one’s port. It suits mine. The ETF was at 0.31% premium as of yesterday but everything is bid up these days. Not trying to make this a SCHY thread but note that Schwab site says 30 day SEC yield as of June 9 is 3.54%. The index website says dividend yield is approx 4.4%. I am not able to decide whether to hold this in taxable or tax deferred - so, I started it in both. Of course, the dividend from constituents would be subject to withholding tax at source, except for a few countries like the UK. I have not looked into whether ETFs and OEFs generally qualify for withholding tax rates based on income tax treaties or are subject to the generally higher statutory rates. I have historically held a low foreign allocation and always through OEFs that my tax deferred accounts were the default for international equity fund investment. Now, I have a small holding in VIGI which does not pay anywhere close to 4.5% dividend and because I like to hold ETFs in taxable accounts, it is in a taxable account. With SCHY, I am undecided. Where are you guys holding SCHY?
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 11, 2021 7:00:46 GMT
Where are you guys holding SCHY? .....Taxable. Reason #1: I don't mind the dividends in my taxable account, but what I don't like are big CGs. So .... ETFs always go in taxable, and I try to keep actively-managed OEFs in the IRAs. Reason #2: Foreign taxes [tax credit in taxable account].
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 11, 2021 8:28:42 GMT
You guys are tempting me with SCHY to replace VEU or partially replace it. But VEU has growth since it's a blend. I've owned SCHD since 2017 so I am onboard with Schwab's method of div/value ETFs. Not trying to tempt you to do anything .... it just happened to cross my radar. Background: about two years ago I was looking for a good FLV fund for my taxable account. As a fan of SCHD, I thought there might be a good foreign counterpart. My search picked up VIGI, VYMI, IGRO and PID, and nothing else. None of these grabbed me, for one reason or another. I ended up using VGWAX, and built it up to my biggest holding. Fast forward to last week .... I was perusing the CS site and happened to see that DJ launched a foreign version of their US Dividend 100 index (which SCHD tracks) and CS simultaneously launched SCHY. So without a whole lot of thought I bought a piece (actually rhythmmethod beat me to it). I'm sending some cash to my Fido acct today, and next week I plan to buy some more. It's yielding around 4%. It may or may not prove to be as successful as SCHD (note of caution: VIGI/VYMI don't look as good as VIG/VYM!) but I'm taking a flyer on it. And now you know . . . . the rest of the story. Good day!
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jun 11, 2021 12:57:57 GMT
I was not aware of the new ETF either. I am all in with Schwab and they usually send emails on new launches. I am no big fan of foreign funds and my 8% in VEU is all I have other than tidbits held by SCHX, VIG and SCHD. SCHY could get me more interested in foreign. The 4% yield is great for growing the share quantity and funding RMDs (whenever they start). I hate selling shares.
|
|
|
Post by paulr888 on Jun 11, 2021 15:21:17 GMT
Although I hold SCHD as along with DSEEX for my LV US exposure, for Foreign exposure I've always preferred actively managed OEFs. I just like a fish by fish catch instead of using a wide net.
|
|