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Post by chang on Jun 5, 2021 3:33:29 GMT
Overdue for a checkup. The results: Asset Allocation:
- Cash: -1%
- U.S. Stock: 32%
- Foreign Stock: 23%
- Bonds: 45%
- Other: 2%
Equity Grid: (Adds up to 92%. Per M*: "Not Classified 7.16%")
Stats:Average MF expense: 0.49% P/E: 21.76 (0.98 x S&P 500) P/B: 3.55 (0.89 x S&P 500) ROA: 5.27 ROE: 17.69 EPS Growth: 14.41 (1.11 x S&P 500) Yield: 1.51% (1.16 x S&P500)Regions:North America: 57.0% Latin America: 1.6% UK: 3.8% Europe Dev.: 10.7% Africa/ME: 0.6% Japan: 5.0% Australasia: 0.7% Asia Dev.: 5.8% Asia Emerging: 14.4%
Take-aways:- 55% stock is at the upper end of the 50-55% range I want. Pare back a bit?
- Too LG heavy. Consider easing back on LCG, and diverting into Value (Lg-Med-Sm).
- Foreign equity = 42% of equity is fine.
- Underweight* Financials, Materials, Energy and RE -- poorly positioned for inflation? (*relative to S&P500)
It might be time to take a little profit on APDYX (Artisan Dev. Wrld.). It's PE/Growth metrics are stratospheric.
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Post by Chahta on Jun 5, 2021 13:35:24 GMT
My results:
Asset Allocation:
Cash: 7% U.S. Stock: 37% Foreign Stock: 8% Bonds: 46% Other: 1%
Equity Grid (not classified 0.27%):
24 35 20 7 8 4 1 0 0
Bond Grid (not classified 33.5%):
18 0 7 8 11 0 13 0 10
Stats:
Average MF expense: 0.37%
P/E: 18.87 (0.85 x S&P 500)
P/B: 3.35 (0.84 x S&P 500)
ROA: 8.37 (0.94 x S&P 500)
ROE: 28.15 (1.04 x S&P 500)
EPS Growth: 11.55 (0.89 x S&P 500)
Yield: 1.98% (1.52 x S&P 500)
My cash should be a little less, but I am holding some for a quick buy. But a good chunk is most likely in mutual funds. I am OK not holding small cap but have plans to buy MC and SC at lower prices to boost equities to 50-55%.
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Post by ignatz on Jun 5, 2021 15:14:28 GMT
Equity/fixed: 63/37
US 54, foreign 8, bonds 32, cash 5, other 1
17 29 28
7 8 4
3 3 2
ER: .49, most of it due to one bond fund
Relative to SP:
PE .94 PB .75 ROA .64 ROE .67
Yield 1.47
Average market cap 85.5 B
North America 87.5 UK/Europe 6.7 Japan 1.8 Asia developed 1.0 Australasia .6 Emerging 2.3
Only 6 holdings, with over half in a balanced fund.
The most significant thing I track is the equity/fixed ratio. The equity style box and tilts are a lesser concern, as is foreign.
The rest of it is incidental. I’m mildly concerned with the “only” 8 foreign and little emerging, but I continue to try to restrain my fiddling impulses. I’m currently satisfied with the major overhaul I did in May 2020 and have not made a single change since. As has been true for my 50 year investing career, my primary concern remains “what do I do in a significant downturn”. I had no comforting answer in 1971 and have none today.
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Post by anovice on Jun 5, 2021 15:30:47 GMT
Overdue for a checkup. The results: Asset Allocation:
- Cash: -1%
- U.S. Stock: 32%
- Foreign Stock: 23%
- Bonds: 45%
- Other: 2%
Equity Grid: (Adds up to 92%. Per M*: "Not Classified 7.16%")
Stats:Average MF expense: 0.49% P/E: 21.76 (0.98 x S&P 500) P/B: 3.55 (0.89 x S&P 500) ROA: 5.27 ROE: 17.69 EPS Growth: 14.41 (1.11 x S&P 500) Yield: 1.51% (1.16 x S&P500)Regions:North America: 57.0% Latin America: 1.6% UK: 3.8% Europe Dev.: 10.7% Africa/ME: 0.6% Japan: 5.0% Australasia: 0.7% Asia Dev.: 5.8% Asia Emerging: 14.4%
Take-aways:- 55% stock is at the upper end of the 50-55% range I want. Pare back a bit?
- Too LG heavy. Consider easing back on LCG, and diverting into Value (Lg-Med-Sm).
- Foreign equity = 42% of equity is fine.
- Underweight* Financials, Materials, Energy and RE -- poorly positioned for inflation? (*relative to S&P500)
It might be time to take a little profit on APDYX (Artisan Dev. Wrld.). It's PE/Growth metrics are stratospheric. I did in April and put the proceeds in SIVLX. I too became a bit concerned with the P/E, was too heavy in China, I wanted more value to offset my growth, and with my other Diversified Emerging Markets funds felt the pairing was better with APDKX which I own. Still in Singapore and Brazil with SIVLX, Hong Kong instead of China and a P/E of 12 instead of 50. So far so good but I am watching closely.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 5, 2021 17:51:58 GMT
Equity/fixed: 63/37 US 54, foreign 8, bonds 32, cash 5, other 1 17 29 28 7 8 4 3 3 2 ER: .49, most of it due to one bond fund Relative to SP: PE .94 PB .75 ROA .64 ROE .67 Yield 1.47 Average market cap 85.5 B North America 87.5 UK/Europe 6.7 Japan 1.8 Asia developed 1.0 Australasia .6 Emerging 2.3 Only 6 holdings, with over half in a balanced fund. The most significant thing I track is the equity/fixed ratio. The equity style box and tilts are a lesser concern, as is foreign. The rest of it is incidental. I’m mildly concerned with the “only” 8 foreign and little emerging, but I continue to try to restrain my fiddling impulses. I’m currently satisfied with the major overhaul I did in May 2020 and have not made a single change since. As has been true for my 50 year investing career, my primary concern remains “what do I do in a significant downturn”. I had no comforting answer in 1971 and have none today.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 5, 2021 18:00:55 GMT
ignatz --
Back in the 2008 crash GLD went from about 90 to roughly 70 and did not fully recover until 2010. I was surprised and remember making a mental note - when the fit hits the shan EVERYTHING gets tattered. Still, from 90 to 70 and back isn't a disaster and if a future bear market has a big inflationary component, GLD might do much better than it did in '08.
Personally I have a notion of fleeing to HDGE, MYY & WIW which may be less volatile than a simple enormous position in SH. May possibly also maintain a precious metals component should Ursa Major re-emerge.
Anyway, a bear market is always on my mind, and those are my notions.
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Post by ignatz on Jun 5, 2021 19:13:22 GMT
Richard: Appreciate the comments. Frankly, I can't see myself EVER fleeing to a short position. Possibly to cash; possibly to just a lesser equity position; possibly to a minor (10%?) gold or GDX position.
Leaving aside the question "when do I un-flee?"
At my age, I can't afford to be seriously wrong for a significant time period. The fact that long-term the market has thus far always been up is of course sobering and puts a severe dent in "timing" strategies of any kind. The cost of the so-called insurance can be too high (whiplashes or being outright wrong). On the other hand, what the market might be doing in 2035 is of little consequence to me. So, I continue to muddle along, worrying to some degree about my reactions to downward market action....but figuring worrying is better than continued fiddling. I'm hardly a trader, but no doubt I'd have been better off if I'd gone with a 60 or 65 percent static allocation 50 years ago and then gone to Rip Van Winkle comatose status. But my emotional makeup (personality) won't permit it....a good plan is never good enough when the perfect plan is out there. I'm sure you've gone through these same machinations in your own mind. The most useless question in the English language is "but what if I'm wrong?".
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Post by chang on Jun 5, 2021 22:35:37 GMT
ER: .49, most of it due to one bond fund I'm a particular cheapskate when it comes to bond fund expenses. Mainly because bond NAVs don't grow (apart from short-term fluctuations), they just deliver dividends. And with 20 year T-bonds paying < 2%, any expense ratio over 0.1% looks expensive to me. Just curious which bond fund you like so much.....
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Post by ignatz on Jun 5, 2021 22:56:25 GMT
Chang:
I certainly not enamored of my bond fund or any bond fund. I'll just say it's quite well known and an above average performer over the 4 plus years I've owned it and all periods per Morningstar.
I have zero idea how it will perform in the future. I change bond funds at an even slower rate than equity funds, so I'll likely continue to own it and certainly may be disappointed. It's about 60 percent of my fixed. If it continues to perform in the top half of bond funds, I likely won't sell it. I keep telling myself to react to poor performance after the fact rather than try to anticipate.
All part of my anti-tinkering initiative which I may give up on at any time......depending on future market action.
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
Posts: 221
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Post by galeno on Jun 5, 2021 23:25:09 GMT
My results:
AA: 50% VWRD + 45% AGGG + 5% CASH
Cash: 7% U.S. Stock: 27% Foreign Stock: 21% U.S. Bonds: 20% Foreign Bonds: 25% Other: 0%
Equity Grid:
22 33 28 5 7 3 0 0 0
Bond Grid:
0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0
Stats:
Average MF expense: 0.23%
P/E: 19.18
P/B: 2.59
Yield: 1.11%
KISS & STC.
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Post by paulr888 on Jun 6, 2021 14:44:17 GMT
Hi Chang ... Just catching up with reading and thought I would chime in wrt bond funds. Half my money are in bond funds and a third of that are in bond CEFs. But within bond OEFs I have no favorite. They all have a purpose and a position to play. Instead of all weather, I like to think all bases covered. Doubleline TR and some Core FI for ballast. Doubleline Flex for rising rates. Pimco Income for income and Pimco TR for ballast. Guggenheim TR and American Funds Strategic for long bond coverage when markets stressed. Looks like a solid basketball team with no super star but hopefully they give any competition a run for their money.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 6, 2021 14:56:34 GMT
Okay - I'll play - Cash 4 US Stocks 36 Foreign 14 Bond 42 Other(Pref) 4 Equity 17 – 25 – 28 8 - 12 - 4 3 - 3 - 2 FI 8 – 5 – 5 0 - 8 - 10 0 – 2 - 0 I'm looking to reduce LCG and increase LCV. I'm thinking about doing this with the foreign holdings. I hold AMZN and MSFT which skew everything towards LCG. I'm interested in the SCHY and DODEX chang , unearthed, maybe exchanging MATFX for them. In general looking not to increase number of funds and decrease when possible. Also looking for more manager decision making so I can do more rhythm stuff. Any thoughts welcome!
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Post by ignatz on Jun 6, 2021 15:17:40 GMT
........... Also looking for more manager decision making so I can do more rhythm stuff. Any thoughts welcome!
Assuming I understand what you mean by that...........
It's nothing more than will power, which means it can be very difficult.
Do you find it tough to break habits generally?
What's the longest you've gone in the last 10 years without examining your portfolio? My answer: less than 48 hours, which is pathetic on its face.
It's been at least a decade since I went 24 hours without looking at a PC monitor. Nothing but habit.
I am making some headway. I haven't made a trade in over a year other than auto-reinvestment of distributions. Today's story is that I may make minor adjustments near year end when I take RMDs.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 6, 2021 15:42:24 GMT
........... Also looking for more manager decision making so I can do more rhythm stuff. Any thoughts welcome!
Assuming I understand what you mean by that...........
It's nothing more than will power, which means it can be very difficult.
Do you find it tough to break habits generally?
What's the longest you've gone in the last 10 years without examining your portfolio? My answer: less than 48 hours, which is pathetic on its face.
It's been at least a decade since I went 24 hours without looking at a PC monitor. Nothing but habit.
I am making some headway. I haven't made a trade in over a year other than auto-reinvestment of distributions. Today's story is that I may make minor adjustments near year end when I take RMDs.
Yes, difficult to break habits, except the good ones. I usually check PF every day, probably not great. I'm inching toward more hands-off. But in reality my core (which I'm making minor adjustments now) account for 50-60% and tweaks are mostly to the explore part. I'm not ready for a stable of balanced exclusively but the wind is gently carrying me in that direction. Good to see you here, ignatz!
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Post by paulr888 on Jun 7, 2021 13:36:31 GMT
We are like two slightly intersecting Venn diagrams and that is probably a good thing for you. I also have 2 Vanguard Calif Munis but both high quality. I don't have any HY bond fund as I generally like to avoid trying to figure out when to add or when to fade bond asset classes. So I avoid HY, floating rate, IG, EM, TIPS funds. I like to let the bond PM make those decisions. Generally my funds have words like, Total Return, Core, Income, Strategic, Flexible or Unconstrained in their names.
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hondo
Commander
Posts: 145
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Post by hondo on Jun 7, 2021 15:34:00 GMT
Okay, I'll play.
Cash 1 U.S. Stocks 31 Foreign 4 Bonds 63 Other 1
Equity Grid:
26 31 22 5 7 3 2 2 1
Bond Grid:
12 23 0 3 38 20 5 0 0
Stats:
ER avg. .09 P/E 20.11 P/B 3.10 ROA 6.77 ROE 21.63 EPS Growth 12.06 Yield 1.93 Avg.Market Cap $mil 102,498
KISS portfolio.
I may be a little lite on foreign stock. Two reasons: 1st-I have never been a fan of foreign stocks. 2nc-The funds I use have very little foreign. I may be adding to the one that does have more foreign than the others. I carry my CDs as short term bonds, however the renewal cd rates are so low that I am redeeming them as they mature and placing the cash elsewhere.
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Post by chang on Jun 9, 2021 4:24:55 GMT
Update: My OP was flawed due to various "Not Classified" entries by M*. I tried again, using more conventional proxies. Also updated to reflect some trades this week. All in all, a slightly better picture.
The only takeaway now is basically that 56% stock is on the high side. I'm not going to sell for no reason, BUT many funds are sitting right on their 50/200dmas, so we're really at a pause-point. If we appear to start legging downward I will be prepared to shed stock quickly.
Asset Allocation:
Cash: 3% U.S. Stock: 32% Foreign Stock: 24% Bonds: 40% Other: 2% NC: 0%
Equity Grid:
18 28 27 5 8 7 2 3 3
Stats:
P/E: 20.67 (0.93 x S&P 500) P/B: 3.33 (0.84 x S&P 500) ROA: 4.99 ROE: 16.60 EPS Growth: 13.90 (1.07 x S&P 500) Yield: 1.47% (1.13 x S&P500)
Regions:
North America: 59.8% Latin America: 1.6% UK: 3.7% Europe Dev.: 10.1% Europe Emg.: 0.6% Africa/ME: 0.7% Japan: 4.7% Australasia: 0.7% Asia Dev.: 5.3% Asia Emg.: 12.9%
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Post by paulr888 on Jun 9, 2021 7:03:18 GMT
When I get time I will put into M* portfolio, but right now I just pulled these figures from Fidelity website:
AA US Stock 33 Foreign Stock 15 Bonds 50 Other 2
Stock Grid 12 16 19 4 14 6 13 14 2
Sectors Financials 21 Real Estate 19 Info Tech 12 Health Care 11 Materials 10
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Post by chang on Jun 9, 2021 7:48:29 GMT
paulr888 That's a serious small-cap allocation!
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Post by Chahta on Jun 9, 2021 11:21:46 GMT
My ROE (28.15)and ROA (8.37) seem pretty high compared to others. Investigating it, SCHD, SCHX, VIG and AKREX (91%) of my equity AA) are the heavy lifters taking the values higher. My foreign AA (VEU) is dragging it down. I have never really paid attention to that data before. I would think the higher ROE (making money), the better the stocks should perform. Looking at adding SC, which I lack, will drag ROE and ROA down. How do you all view that? Am I giving up growth?
You guys are tempting me with SCHY to replace VEU or partially replace it. But VEU has growth since it's a blend. I've owned SCHD since 2017 so I am onboard with Schwab's method of div/value ETFs.
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Post by paulr888 on Jun 9, 2021 14:39:43 GMT
Hi Chang ... Yes, it is. I didn't intentionally set it up that way. My portfolio is designed to yield around 4%. As such, my equities have a healthy dose of Alternatives (REITs, BDCs, HQL and FNV). These are smaller companies. A long time ago, I used to own specific mid cap and small cap funds but I abandoned them and just go with US LC, LB and LV and let the Alternatives take care of Mid and Small. May seem risky, but my portfolio is diversified and within what I believe are sensible bets to achieve my goals. So far, so good ... after 8 years of retirement.
Aside, I enjoyed Gundlach's webcast yesterday. I now understand how his flagship bond fund, DBLTX, has flexibility on the Gov't guaranteed end of barbell. He defends it as risk adjusted fixed income fund and I use it for safety and portfolio diversifier. Also good to hear he and employees continue to invest along side investors. Also he mentioned he has most money in his Opportunistic Income strategy which I, as a non-accredited small retail investor, can only access through RNDLX/rnsix and OPP. I pumped a few bucks into them this morning.
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Post by ignatz on Jun 9, 2021 15:15:06 GMT
................BUT many funds are sitting right on their 50/200dmas, so we're really at a pause-point. If we appear to start legging downward I will be prepared to shed stock quickly.
Chang:
Out of curiosity.....
Do you plan to sell those pause-point funds when:
1: the nav breaks the 50 2: the nav breaks the 200 3: the 50 falls down through the 200 4: something else
And is that anywhere near an oath? Or merely today's inclination?
I ask because to me exit strategies are the biggest question in personal investing. It has be-deviled me for 50 years and I'm always interested in how others handle it....and how consistently.
Thanks for any insight.
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Post by Chahta on Jun 9, 2021 15:51:07 GMT
................BUT many funds are sitting right on their 50/200dmas, so we're really at a pause-point. If we appear to start legging downward I will be prepared to shed stock quickly.
Chang:
Out of curiosity.....
Do you plan to sell those pause-point funds when:
1: the nav breaks the 50 2: the nav breaks the 200 3: the 50 falls down through the 200 4: something else
And is that anywhere near an oath? Or merely today's inclination?
I ask because to me exit strategies are the biggest question in personal investing. It has be-deviled me for 50 years and I'm always interested in how others handle it....and how consistently.
Thanks for any insight.
What did I miss? Close to 50dma yes, 200dma no. Quit scaring the kids.
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Post by anitya on Jun 9, 2021 20:37:34 GMT
SCHY index info can be had at the link Chang had originally posted plus the actual ETF info is at Schwab website. The stats are pretty good but one should check the info for suitability in one’s port. It suits mine.
The ETF was at 0.31% premium as of yesterday but everything is bid up these days.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 9, 2021 22:27:55 GMT
SCHY has some foreign real estate (about 2%). That may lead to PFIC issues that flow realized losses and unrealized G/L through income/earnings statement and may cause unexpected variations in distributions. It started just in late-April, so there isn't any history. Similar warning is found for foreign real estate VNQI. community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00005W9srYCAR/vnq-and-vnqi-question
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Post by chang on Jun 10, 2021 1:31:58 GMT
................BUT many funds are sitting right on their 50/200dmas, so we're really at a pause-point. If we appear to start legging downward I will be prepared to shed stock quickly. Out of curiosity.....
Do you plan to sell those pause-point funds when:
1: the nav breaks the 50 2: the nav breaks the 200 3: the 50 falls down through the 200 4: something else
And is that anywhere near an oath? Or merely today's inclination?
I ask because to me exit strategies are the biggest question in personal investing. It has be-deviled me for 50 years and I'm always interested in how others handle it....and how consistently.
Thanks for any insight. No, I don't sell based on charts. I consider charts as being mildly interesting, but I don't use them in any hard-and-fast way. But all of the three indications you mention are bearish. When those things are all happening, it isn't a fun time to be in the market. I was too slow to sell in March 2020, and learned a lesson from that. Fortunately, like most people, my PV soared in 2020 and reached new highs. Not sure about oaths, but I did vow not to allow my PV to fall below a certain level. So as I approach that level, I will start shedding assets. Exactly what will trigger me to start I don't know, but I have some specific thresholds in mind. I'm not going to watch my PV in freefall again.
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Post by chang on Jun 10, 2021 1:36:27 GMT
What did I miss? Close to50dma yes, 200dma no. Quit scaring the kids. A lot of growth funds have their NAV, 50dma and 200mda all pinched close together now. Example: ARTYX
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Post by ignatz on Jun 10, 2021 2:06:42 GMT
Out of curiosity.....
Do you plan to sell those pause-point funds when:
1: the nav breaks the 50 2: the nav breaks the 200 3: the 50 falls down through the 200 4: something else
And is that anywhere near an oath? Or merely today's inclination?
I ask because to me exit strategies are the biggest question in personal investing. It has be-deviled me for 50 years and I'm always interested in how others handle it....and how consistently.
Thanks for any insight. .............I did vow not to allow my PV to fall below a certain level. So as I approach that level, I will start shedding assets. Exactly what will trigger me to start I don't know, but I have some specific thresholds in mind. I'm not going to watch my PV in freefall again.
That's about where I am.
My funds are all a bit above both the 50 and 200, but a 10 percent decline in the broad market is likely to change that. Maybe even a lesser amount. Pretty good chance that will happen within a year for at least some holdings.
I have to decide if I'm going to reduce based on X percent decline in each fund, X percent decline in an index, X decline in portfolio value, or specific things seen on a chart.....most likely crossovers of some type.
The rub is that like you, I don't know exactly what will trigger me....other than negative emotion, which is likely a bad reason.
I recently came across Mojena.com....looks plausible as a timing mechanism, but a bit of examination shows that there are periods as long as 3 or 4 years when it has been dead wrong.
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Post by chang on Jun 10, 2021 2:28:37 GMT
I have to decide if I'm going to reduce based on X percent decline in each fund, X percent decline in an index, X decline in portfolio value, or specific things seen on a chart.....most likely crossovers of some type. I won't necessarily sell a fund just because it declines by a certain amount. So, if one holding drops precipitously, while my overall PV remains in good shape, I probably won't sell the lagging holding if I still judge it to be a good investment .... I might even consider adding to it. But if everything starts dropping, then I will start selling in a certain order, starting with my lowest-conviction holdings, in taxable accounts.
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Post by jongaltiii on Jun 10, 2021 23:16:33 GMT
ignatz, I don’t have hard and fast rules like that. The moment you sell, is the very moment that you lock in your losses. I tend to follow chang, advice above. I find a helpful exercise is to reverse your decision. If you have 10K in MACGX, for example… and you’re really unhappy with the performance YTD - Imagine you have 10K sitting on your kitchen table. Would you spend the 10k on MACGX based on how you think it will perform in the future? If not, perhaps it’s time to sell. If so, perhaps you could or should add to it. This is very simplistic, I know. But it gets me to arrive at what Chang said… my positions that I’m least convicted about… Those go first.
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