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Post by chang on Jun 5, 2021 2:18:41 GMT
Look at a chart like this (for Artisan Dev. Wrld.): LINKTechnically speaking, the NAV has crossed upward over the 200dma and the 50dma -- bullish. But a few days ago, it crossed below -- bearish. In fact, it was well above these averages for many months, and has recently started to wobble. The 50dma bounced off the 200mda back in May 2020, and that might be happening again now ..... but on the other hand, the current wobble looks like it could also be the beginning of a downturn. In other words, it might go up, but on the other hand, it might go down. (No need to thank me for that profound insight.) Wondering what chartists make of a situation like this. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2021 5:06:46 GMT
Interestingly FSEAX has the same pattern. I think it is China doing this.
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Post by chang on Jun 5, 2021 7:34:44 GMT
Interestingly FSEAX has the same pattern. I think it is China doing this. VWUAX the same: LINKI think it's growth funds, which have been volatile recently. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 5, 2021 11:48:06 GMT
The chart indicates that the subject has had a bullish run and is now consolidating those gains. Without any indication of trading volume or momentum it is difficult to project if the next move is up, down, or sideways. However the subjects recent history is bullish.
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Post by xray on Jun 6, 2021 23:12:38 GMT
Traders taking CapGains and buying back some of their better holdings....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 7, 2021 16:24:50 GMT
The Artison chart is quite typical.
Generally a consolidating selloff that is just getting ready for a major move.
Most likely to the upside. Because the TREND is set by the SLOPE of the Moving Average Lines. In this case note the slope is UPWARD for both the 50 and 200 day MAs.
If not owned, one can clearly start to buy a first bucket, and Pyramid Up from there.
But patience otherwise in order, as you wait to see the price trend. If it drops below 200 MAs, do not buy--wait until it gets back above.
And pay particular attention to MA slopes. And flat slopes do occur; the future trend depending on which way the slope eventually breaks. Slopes take more time to fully differentiate.
Just some thoughts for all.
R48
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Post by Chahta on Jun 30, 2021 11:54:27 GMT
Depending how good you are, RSI (below 30) and MACD (starting upturn) at mid May or so would be some good info.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 30, 2021 13:11:45 GMT
RSI is useful for short-term trading. It is based on 14-days and uses the direction and amount of daily movement. Simply, if 14/14 up days, RSI would be 100 and if 14/14 down days, RSI would be 0 - both extreme and unusual.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 30, 2021 14:40:25 GMT
From a poster, tom_b, Fido forum:
David Rosenberg pointed out a couple days ago that the market indexes were at all time highs - something everyone that listens to the news knows. But fewer know that less than 50% of stocks are even over there 50MA's. This is uncomfortably very narrow leadership. He went back and did more looking and discovered this: "Over the past century, the anomaly of hitting a record with no apparent improvement in the share of the S&P 500 members moving above their trendlines only happened in 1929, 1959, 1963, 1972, 1998/99." When you realize what happened around these dates you don't feel so assured or smug about the bears arguments.
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Also remember, first dozen days of July are a strong historical time for the market.
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R48
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