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Post by bb2 on Jan 17, 2022 17:22:19 GMT
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 18, 2022 0:09:23 GMT
Thanks, bb2...very interesting.
Of course, with his wealth, Miller can afford to lose 50% of his portfolio, and still maintain his mansion and personal polo fields down here in Florida.
Miller's mutual fund was the statistical outlier, as he bettered the S&P500 15 years in a row.
BTW my wife and I go to his place, as he has a standing invite to polo aficionado's to come watch, on his estate, the games. Sometimes these "patrons" include dinner. We are grateful. I always remember to say "good game' after the polo.
There are 42 private polo fields in the Wellington FL area...usually two fields per residence. A polo field is equivalent to nine football fields in area!
R48
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Post by bb2 on Jan 18, 2022 20:40:29 GMT
Yes, 48, I had the same thought about losing 50% for BM. Cool you go to his place for polo. (Not that I have any idea of polo. Even my own golf club makes me uncomfortable sometimes. A shabby muni is more my style.)
I recently went partially through the steps to set up an account at Coinbase but just couldn't get myself to upload an image of my driver's license.
So when the time comes, I'll rely on MSTR, COIN, SQ, maybe a futures etf or two, BITO, BTF. Maybe I'll get over my privacy/security concerns.
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Post by bb2 on Jan 18, 2022 21:15:05 GMT
And here's Scott Galloway's recent bit on Web 3.0. He's skeptical of the notion that crypto/chain/et all is a win for the masses. www.profgalloway.com/web3/"95% BTC owned by 2% of accounts" I've done some work on the whales of BTC and wondered how that effects the market for bitcoin. Highly manipulated seems obvious. Collusion. But I'm trying to put myself in their shoes and come up with a plan for the price of bitcoin. So far, I've not been able to do it. Maybe just let things go and see. As a whale, if there's a low price I have in mind, then I buy I guess. At this point, I might not have a high at which I sell.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 19, 2022 14:08:22 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 23, 2022 14:07:23 GMT
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Post by mnfish on May 10, 2022 12:01:44 GMT
Headlines today - "El Salvador ‘buys the dip’ on Bitcoin and "Bitcoin City in El Salvador ‘coming along beautifully'"
"The latest bitcoin price crash doesn’t seem to have deterred El Salvador’s plans to build Bitcoin City, set to be built in the shadow of a volcano in the Central American country. Announcing the new city last year, President Bukele said residents would pay no income tax and geothermal energy from the volcano will be used to mine bitcoin."
However - (from Wikipedia)- "According to a survey conducted by the Salvadoran Chamber of Commerce, as of March 2022 only 14% of merchants in the country processed at least one Bitcoin transaction."
I think it was CNBC had a reporter go to El Salvador and tried to actually use Bitcoin without much success. COIN is down 75% from Nov. FOMO at its finest.
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Post by chang on May 27, 2022 18:50:01 GMT
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Post by Capital on May 27, 2022 18:54:21 GMT
LOL in my opinion Buffett is bidding too high!! - I would not give one Russian Kopek for it all.
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Post by bb2 on May 27, 2022 19:05:47 GMT
JP Morgan says BTC fair value is 38k. Thought I was reading the Onion there for a second.
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Post by bb2 on May 30, 2022 23:31:39 GMT
Barron's had a little crypto roundtable discussion the other day where the participants, from economists to money managers, talked as though bitcoin was a thing. Just another asset in which to invest. For example: "Dan Morehead: We’ve been doing this for 10 years and have seen six big cycles. The weighted average bear-market loss has been 61%, and we hit 62%. It has been going on for 110 days, which is about average for a bear market. This is the first bear market in Bitcoin history in which it has given back more than 100% of the previous bull market, and the first time we’ve had a new low after a bear market. All of those things make me think we’re closer to the end than the beginning."
Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, is a bitcoin hedge fund guy, so there's that. I wonder what he paid Barron's to be included.
Barron's should do better. Barron's needed to include a skeptic.
I read through 100 of 200 comments and not a single one was pro crypto. Tulips, ponzi, scam, etc.
BTW, my Barron's and WSJ are both ending on June 11. Waste of my time and the delivery at 3:30am wakes me up. Not sure what I'll start my fires with come winter.
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Post by uncleharley on May 31, 2022 1:11:19 GMT
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Post by bb2 on May 31, 2022 19:34:52 GMT
I don't know about charts when it comes to crypto. An asset that's heavy with whale ownership, 95% of BTC is owned by 2% of holders, seems to me to play by different rules somehow. I really don't know what I'm talking about here but there has to be something about it. Not even sure how that 95/2 number is derived. But I have to think the whales create a floor in BTC. I've not studied price/volume for BTC, so I guess I should make some time for it.
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Post by anitya on Jun 3, 2022 23:02:30 GMT
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Post by Capital on Jun 4, 2022 11:07:03 GMT
anitya , I've still got both feet where her right foot is and maybe a few yards back towards the camera. I have no plans to open an account with COIN anytime in the near or distant future. Maybe things might change in that future - I will wait for that change and assess that change when it occurs. Thanks for the picture.
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Post by bb2 on Jun 12, 2022 23:34:02 GMT
Talked to a lawyer the other day on the putting green who'd recently given a talk on insuring bitcoin. Straight out insurance. Wallet hacking, etc for exchanges like Coinbase.
I've been reading a lot more negative stuff on BTC of late and have developed a bad feeling about it; worse than ever but if insurance companies are offering that product, maybe I'm wrong about BTC dying.
Of course, financial folk jump on any chance to ID a patsy.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 13, 2022 0:56:10 GMT
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Post by bb2 on Jun 14, 2022 20:01:37 GMT
www.theglobeandmail.com/business/technology/article-crypto-company-celsius-network-freezes-customer-withdrawals-transfers/What were they thinking? Shows the power of the hype. Even stodgy pension fund managers bought into it to the tune of $400M. Ontario teachers put $420M into FTX, too. Who knows if there's trouble there too. Watched "Bloomberg Crypto" TV show today, where they discuss crypto as if it were a thing. Like a chair or a company. I guess BTC has "fundamentals" after all: comparisons to gold, inflation rate, 10-year. Not sure how these are BTC "fundamentals", though. Just adds to my disdain of financial media, for the most part. (The whole industry, for that matter.) Remember this spring when the crypto.com sponsered CNBC segment guests, (looking very much like regular show content but for the banner at the bottom disclosing "paid for by crypto.com"), were selling BTC as an inflation hedge? (Michael Saylor is actually pretty interesting when he's not hyping BTC.) Why COIN is only down a hair is beyond me. Maybe it's M*'s 5* rating! Remember COIN just disclosed your wallet isn't yours if they go under. Edit: Sorry, con jobs have a way of angering me, even if I'm not a victim. See Jan 6.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2022 21:21:42 GMT
I still hold COIN and will. You could be right. I don't know. Uber is down too. I went through the period of OXY down as much. It is pretty hard to sanely make any evaluations in the midst of the market liquidity sea change.
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Post by bb2 on Jun 15, 2022 2:28:21 GMT
Yes, but oil (oxy) and BTC (COIN), to me are fundamentally different animals. We've run ICE's for over 100 years. BTC? Not so much. Uber - not so much - profitability lies in self driving cars, which will come but when? See UBER chart.
Liquidity drove markets? I guess. To me it was mass insanity. Just because you have two bucks to rub together, doesn't mean you have to light a flame to them.
I coded through the 2000 thing. Saw many dudes go to med school after losing their options. Blue Martini - yup, a company. I've sat at conference tables with guys in shiny silver suits in dark glasses from LA, ticker symbols from defunt porn OTC companies. Lies on message boards. "Product about to ship!" I worked on that product and it wasn't going to ship.
Con men. Politics and finance.
Edit: They smell money, like a shark smells blood. And in markets, that means the money is yours. And they manipulate everything that can influence that market to get your money.
You don't think crypto isn't stinking to hgh heaven? Attracting the sharks?
You should come to Palo Alto and go to lunch sometime. Take a drive on Sand Hill Rd.
So, just be careful.
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Post by bb2 on Jun 18, 2022 16:56:30 GMT
From Scott Galloway, a long term skeptic..................
"What we found is this whole mantra of a trustless economy, we shouldn’t have trusted many of these new actors.
Even in ’99, there were a lot of use cases of the internet — you could buy CDs and books on Amazon. You could get real-time news on Yahoo. It’s more difficult to find use cases from the blockchain that impact everyday consumers. I think you’re just seeing a massive unwinding or de-levering of the space — and I think we’re kind of in the midst of a crash that will be likely unprecedented in terms of an asset class. If you look at the bubble — if you compare it to previous bubbles, whether it’s tulips, internet stocks of ’99, housing, Japanese stocks — the run-up here was more extraordinary. The run-up here makes the other ones look sheepish or modest, which means that the crash will be equally or more violent.
There’s going to be more lawsuits. There’s going to be more calls for additional regulations. You’re going to see investors say: Where were the regulators? That’s the bad news. The good news is it probably won’t have much of an impact on the real economy. Keep in mind, even if all crypto went to zero right now, that’s still less than half the value of Apple."
There was a guy on TV yesterday, my wife was watching with me, who I thought would have some interesting things to say about crypto but right off he used the phrase, "...at the speed of the internet..." and even my wife cringed.
So many hucksters. They're ALL hucksters now. I think the notion that stuff like COIN and even Block are more stable, conservative crypto proxies, like pipelines were to oil or pickaxes to gold, a notion I once had, is wrong. Just my opinion. COIN has held up pretty well, maybe for that reason but I don't think it'll last. The idea of putting "what you can afford to lose" into something when losing is likely, doesn't make sense. I'll buy a $2 lotto when the prize hits 1B.
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Post by bizman on Jun 18, 2022 20:33:51 GMT
As I have indicated elsewhere, I'm a big skeptic of talk of "financial innovation" or new eras of any variety. That doesn't mean that big breakthroughs don't happen, but people shouldn't lose their skepticism. Especially if such heralded breakthrough is related to finance, assume it's a scam until you have proof, or at least substantial evidence, to the contrary. Almost always it seems, these things amount to clever schemers coming up with at least a half believable narrative of untold riches if you will just suspend your disbelief and hop on board the train. Despite all of the talk of "even if Bitcoin goes to zero, the blockchain is where it's at" I just don't see any there there, except for a speculative pump and dump, and you don't want to be hodling at the end or you will likely be hodling the bag. The narrative idea of Bitcoin and crypto in general appeals to a libertarian bro aesthetic: the powers that be have sucked and been irresponsible, so let's dump the current financial system and start over. Realistically though, it makes more sense to fix the problems with the system we have rather than start from zero. The 70's sucked, but with Volcker we were able to fix things, at least until all the smart guys forgot the lessons of the past. ___________________________________ Anyway, a reliable guide for me is Stephen Diehl, a software engineer from London, who has done yeoman's work bursting the bubble of all of the breathless talk and buzzword bingo of the blockchain, Web3, etc. To me, there just is no there there. I can't do better than he has done. The Case Against CryptoThe Complete Argument Against CryptoThe Simple English Argument Against Crypto
Web3 is BullshitBlockchainism
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2022 23:12:38 GMT
It is not a coincidence that retail Crypto craze coincided with the rise of conspiratorial, anti-establishment mindset in the society. Both were helped by easy access to information (both good and bad) while the average human mind has not caught up to the required discriminating faculties (e.g., critical thinking).
The average investor looks at all the successful investors investing in Crypto and convinces himself that it must be legit and that while he may be getting in at an inflated price, he will be fine because he is in it for the long haul. That is exactly what the successful investor, who is an adept trader, wants from the average investor. Match made in heaven!
I am not aware of any successful investor that buys and buries publicly traded instruments. They are all in it to make money, have a distaste for losses, and are not married to anything in their portfolio.
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Post by bizman on Jun 19, 2022 1:16:11 GMT
It is not a coincidence that retail Crypto craze coincided with the rise of conspiratorial, anti-establishment mindset in the society. Both were helped by easy access to information (both good and bad) while the average human mind has not caught up to the required discriminating faculties (e.g., critical thinking). The average investor looks at all the successful investors investing in Crypto and convinces himself that it must be legit and that while he may be getting in at an inflated price, he will be fine because he is in it for the long haul. That is exactly what the successful investor, who is an adept trader, wants from the average investor. Match made in heaven! I am not aware of any successful investor that buys and buries publicly traded instruments. They are all in it to make money, have a distaste for losses, and are not married to anything in their portfolio. There is an interesting higher level philosophical discussion to be had here. Not that I have all of the answers, but it seems that sensible people need to sail between Scylla and Charybdis, in the sense that Scylla is the visceral appeal of conspiracy theories to explain everything, and Charybdis is the blind appeal to authority. Those who see and believe conspiracy theories everywhere seem to me like a group who choose schizophrenia because the world doesn't make sense to them. Sort of like John Nash in A Beautiful Mind, except he was both brilliant and affected by the real-deal schizophrenia. To me, if everything is a conspiracy, nothing is a conspiracy. On the other hand, relying blindly on the authority of an unquestionable priestly caste also has its problems. In matters of physical science with testable and falsifiable hypotheses, the authorities generally have it right. Which is why I am a fan of and full partaker in the mRNA Covid Vaccines. However, in areas of the social sciences, or where physical scientists venture far from their areas of expertise into economics and such and there are no testable and falsifiable experiments to show truth, blind dependence on experts is a weakness. I see reasons of bad incentives and such that need to be gotten into here, such as the desire to continue to get funding leading to the "correct opinion," and also the desire to avoid being ostracized by one's colleagues for issuing a heterodox opinion. Given that Richard Feynman said that science is the belief in the ignorance of experts, we should not just blindly rely on a consensus that is not based on reproducible and falsifiable experiments, such as the old "4 out of 5 dentists agree." It is just the situation that to be sensible in today's world, one must fade both the know-nothings, and the know-everythings. So much of it seems tribal as well. People talk about following the science, but what they generally really mean is follow their buddies the scientists like they do. One of these is much different than the other. Science means the product of the scientific method, not whatever a group of people with the credentials to be called scientists thinks. I apologize for going somewhat off topic here.
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 5, 2022 15:28:12 GMT
Bitcoin just dropped thru 20,000. Next stop is 12500.
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Post by win1177 on Jul 6, 2022 12:59:39 GMT
Bitcoin just dropped thru 20,000. Next stop is 12500. Why I have avoided Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like the plague! Still don’t see them as “investments” (yet). Maybe never? Win
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Post by roi2020 on Jul 6, 2022 16:50:20 GMT
Bitcoin just dropped thru 20,000. Next stop is 12500. Why I have avoided Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like the plague! Still don’t see them as “investments” (yet). Maybe never? Win I too have avoided the siren call of Bitcoin. It doesn't pay interest / dividends nor does it have any earnings. I don't consider Bitcoin to be an investment - it is speculation ¹. A Bitcoin "investor" relies on the Greater Fool theory to make a profit.
¹ generally speaking, speculation may be ok if you understand the ramifications and limit the size of your bets.
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Post by gman57 on Jul 6, 2022 18:29:29 GMT
Bought ETHE at one time -- only $900 worth -- I made 25-30% in a week or three and thought I was a genius...I then sold it. I waited for it to go down but waiting is sooooo hard. Put $1200 in ETHE and now it's worth $434. Down 66%! Ouch :^) :^)
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Post by chang on Jul 15, 2022 15:21:06 GMT
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Post by roi2020 on Jul 16, 2022 1:20:21 GMT
Mr. Munger needs to stop waffling and state exactly what he thinks of crypto! Anyway, how knowledgable can a nonagenarian be regarding the latest/greatest investment opportunity?
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