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Post by fishingrod on Aug 2, 2021 23:10:28 GMT
A question for long term holders of EDV, TLT - Have you ever noticed that its price foretells anything about future equity action? Today equities are sluggish, but still up. EDV is up well over 1%. I'm speculating if that might be any indication of an equity downturn. Or, perhaps, they move independently on their own tracks. helmut , paulr888 , More interesting that the 30 year ^TYX was down but EDV was up. I may be wrong in this case but there is an inverted relationship with yields and price with bonds. When prices go up yields go down, and when prices go down , yields go up. TYX tracks yield, down 4.4bp, or -2.32% roughly today. EDV will reflect that being up roughly 1.18%.
Fishingrod
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 2, 2021 23:14:24 GMT
A question for long term holders of EDV, TLT - Have you ever noticed that its price foretells anything about future equity action? Today equities are sluggish, but still up. EDV is up well over 1%. I'm speculating if that might be any indication of an equity downturn. Or, perhaps, they move independently on their own tracks. helmut , paulr888 , More interesting that the 30 year ^TYX was down but EDV was up. What's so unusual about that? The former is the rate on the 30yr which went down today. When rates go down the price of the 30 yr goes up as reflected in EDV or what I use ZROZ.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 2, 2021 23:40:42 GMT
Thanks for the chart YBB. Would you help me read the chart to see whether it confirms my intent or not. The reason I would add a long bond like EDV is to protect stock market volatility. When the stock market is bottoming like from Feb 1 2020 to March 1 2020 I would want EDV to be rallying, with price at a peak level at that time or shortly thereafter. Can you tell me if that is the case? The theory is to rebalance EDV as it gains in price, selling some gains back down to your target %. I understand the other edge of the sword. The downside is when stock market is trending up, EDV is not rallying, with price trending down. I think that is what you are referring to by the long painful decline. This would create a buying opportunity to get back to target allocation. Does this make sense to you? Thanks for helping me on this. It is a new venture for me this year. The way to interpret ratio chart like for EDV:$SPX (or EDV:SPY) is: Up-trend = EDV outperforming SP500 Flat/sideways = EDV moving in-line with SP500 Down-trend = EDV underperforming SP500 So, it is seen (by changing time to 2 years to see early-2020) that outperformance of EDV comes in very short spurts, and then basically, it underperforms much of the time. This is typical of most hedges in that they work only for short periods and the opportunity cost of having a hedge most of the time is quite high. One almost has to be a nimble trader to exploit hedging characteristics of EDV. Everyone cannot be great hedger by just hanging on to some hedge.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 3, 2021 0:04:13 GMT
More interesting that the 30 year ^TYX was down but EDV was up. I may be wrong in this case but there is an inverted relationship with yields and price with bonds. When prices go up yields go down, and when prices go down , yields go up. TYX tracks yield, down 4.4bp, or -2.32% roughly today. EDV will reflect that being up roughly 1.18%.
Fishingrod
Whoops my bad. I know that but was thinking the opposite for some reason. Quite a dumb thing to post. I track it on Yahoo Finance and must have looked quickly at the green numbers mistaking TLT for TYX. I have the 3 together in a list.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 3, 2021 0:28:29 GMT
While I have your attention, would you also comment on something else I am up to now. After listening to Artemis Capital discussion of their Dragon Portfolio I have decided to add some long volatility hedge. I shaved a little of my BDCs to create room. My target equity is being reduced from 45% to 43%, creating a 2% space in my portfolio for this hedge. I am thinking of adding VIRT. Virtu Financial is one of the largest HFT firms, Their profit is very highly correlated with volatility. They also pay a nice dividend. They did the job during Feb 1 to Mar 1 2020 market decline. As I understand, you want to use Virtu/VIRT as volatility hedge because of your hypotheses that it has (1) high correlation with VIX and (2) inverse correlation with SP500. Virtu/VIRT acts as HFT and market-maker. How about other brokers (SCHW, TD Ameritrade/SCHW, E*Trade/MS), exchanges (ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, CME, COIN), market-makers (VIRT, FLTDF; most are private)? To test these hypotheses, consider the chart of the ratio VIRT:SPY with VIX and SP500 shown in the bottom panels. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VIRT%3ASPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76303992667The hedging characteristics seen in March 2020 are not seen in any consistent manner for other times. But don't let this discourage you. FWIW, I recently started a position in COIN, not as hedge but to have a foot in the crypto space through what is a combo exchange - dealer/market maker - broker. Caution - Its market-cap is 1.9 times that of Nasdaq/NDAQ.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 3, 2021 2:51:52 GMT
Thanks for the chart YBB. Would you help me read the chart to see whether it confirms my intent or not. The reason I would add a long bond like EDV is to protect stock market volatility. When the stock market is bottoming like from Feb 1 2020 to March 1 2020 I would want EDV to be rallying, with price at a peak level at that time or shortly thereafter. Can you tell me if that is the case? The theory is to rebalance EDV as it gains in price, selling some gains back down to your target %. I understand the other edge of the sword. The downside is when stock market is trending up, EDV is not rallying, with price trending down. I think that is what you are referring to by the long painful decline. This would create a buying opportunity to get back to target allocation. Does this make sense to you? Thanks for helping me on this. It is a new venture for me this year. The way to interpret ratio chart like for EDV:$SPX (or EDV:SPY) is: Up-trend = EDV outperforming SP500 Flat/sideways = EDV moving in-line with SP500 Down-trend = EDV underperforming SP500 So, it is seen (by changing time to 2 years to see early-2020) that outperformance of EDV comes in very short spurts, and then basically, it underperforms much of the time. This is typical of most hedges in that they work only for short periods and the opportunity cost of having a hedge most of the time is quite high. One almost has to be a nimble trader to exploit hedging characteristics of EDV. Everyone cannot be great hedger by just hanging on to some hedge.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 3, 2021 3:09:23 GMT
The way to interpret ratio chart like for EDV:$SPX (or EDV:SPY) is: Up-trend = EDV outperforming SP500 Flat/sideways = EDV moving in-line with SP500 Down-trend = EDV underperforming SP500 So, it is seen (by changing time to 2 years to see early-2020) that outperformance of EDV comes in very short spurts, and then basically, it underperforms much of the time. This is typical of most hedges in that they work only for short periods and the opportunity cost of having a hedge most of the time is quite high. One almost has to be a nimble trader to exploit hedging characteristics of EDV. Everyone cannot be great hedger by just hanging on to some hedge. Thanks YBB for helping me interpret the chart. Based on what you say, I think I need to be a nimble re-balancer. I would be in better position if earlier this year I established my full position of 3% PV in long bond. Then I could just shave off the gain back to 3% PV. But I only bought 1/2 position so re-balance decision a little cloudy as if long bond continues to rally I don't want an even smaller position in place. Interesting EDV 10 yr annualized return is 9.3% and I think Helmut is buy and holder and just enjoys the TR. Also ANBEX and FMSDX have about 10% or so long bond. I don't know how they manage it. I still think a small long bond position is good especially if deflation arrives. EDIT: Upon further review, I think I will rebalance to my initial cost basis. That way I can scrape off some profits and still keep my original cost basis to protect on further downside. Thanks again for watering my brain cells for me YBB.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 3, 2021 3:27:57 GMT
While I have your attention, would you also comment on something else I am up to now. After listening to Artemis Capital discussion of their Dragon Portfolio I have decided to add some long volatility hedge. I shaved a little of my BDCs to create room. My target equity is being reduced from 45% to 43%, creating a 2% space in my portfolio for this hedge. I am thinking of adding VIRT. Virtu Financial is one of the largest HFT firms, Their profit is very highly correlated with volatility. They also pay a nice dividend. They did the job during Feb 1 to Mar 1 2020 market decline. As I understand, you want to use Virtu/VIRT as volatility hedge because of your hypotheses that it has (1) high correlation with VIX and (2) inverse correlation with SP500. Virtu/VIRT acts as HFT and market-maker. How about other brokers (SCHW, TD Ameritrade/SCHW, E*Trade/MS), exchanges (ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, CME, COIN), market-makers (VIRT, FLTDF; most are private)? To test these hypotheses, consider the chart of the ratio VIRT:SPY with VIX and SP500 shown in the bottom panels. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VIRT%3ASPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76303992667The hedging characteristics seen in March 2020 are not seen in any consistent manner for other times. But don't let this discourage you. FWIW, I recently started a position in COIN, not as hedge but to have a foot in the crypto space through what is a combo exchange - dealer/market maker - broker. Caution - Its market-cap is 1.9 times that of Nasdaq/NDAQ. Thanks again YBB. You gave me a homework assignment. I will check out your other mentions above. I definitely am looking to hedge long vol. Someone on the internet caught my eye when he mentioned VIRT. He said unlike with a long VIX ETN/ETF where you will get killed by fees and leverage decay or paying roll costs if dealing with actual VIX futures, with VIRT you actually get paid a yield to hold the position. Their earnings call is Wed. I will be listening in. I listened to replay of prior quarter and it got contentious with one analyst in the Q&A. I was entertained.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 3, 2021 3:59:14 GMT
If you want to get Portfolio Optimization, you can use the PV tool. This is an example( LINK) I used: I entered the following 5 tickers (SPY,VIRT,TLT,PCI,BIZD) and asked for the highest Sharpe. The tool said no need to use BIZD=BDC and gave me the best % to get max Sharpe and a great Max Draw of about 1/3 compared to my random % portfolio Attachments:
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Post by helmut on Aug 3, 2021 18:41:26 GMT
A question for long term holders of EDV, TLT - Have you ever noticed that its price foretells anything about future equity action? Today equities are sluggish, but still up. EDV is up well over 1%. I'm speculating if that might be any indication of an equity downturn. Or, perhaps, they move independently on their own tracks. helmut , paulr888 , You would think since the bond market with a lot less emotion dwarfs the equity market it would be a good short term signal but I've not found that the case in the short-term. Whenever the equity market gets spooked the emotion spills over to long-term treasuries as a flight to safety which may be some sort of signal for short-term traders but it is not one I would bet the farm on. It may be a long-term signal but I've generally found by the time there is clarity in that signal most investors either get backlashed into jumping out of equities to soon or are already so far under in their equity positions they become frozen into riding out the equity correction. helmut
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 3, 2021 19:33:09 GMT
A question for long term holders of EDV, TLT - Have you ever noticed that its price foretells anything about future equity action? Today equities are sluggish, but still up. EDV is up well over 1%. I'm speculating if that might be any indication of an equity downturn. Or, perhaps, they move independently on their own tracks. helmut , paulr888 , You would think since the bond market with a lot less emotion dwarfs the equity market it would be a good short term signal but I've not found that the case in the short-term. Whenever the equity market gets spooked the emotion spills over to long-term treasuries as a flight to safety which may be some sort of signal for short-term traders but it is not one I would bet the farm on. It may be a long-term signal but I've generally found by the time there is clarity in that signal most investors either get backlashed into jumping out of equities to soon or are already so far under in their equity positions they become frozen into riding out the equity correction. helmut +1 When you have clarity, most times it's too late. Markets are getting faster, which adds another complexity. I find the VIX to be one of the best indicators. There are additional others I use to create my special risk/reward sauce.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 9, 2021 15:38:50 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 10, 2021 14:18:04 GMT
I "love" articles like that one "our base case view we expect yields to edge modestly higher back into a range of about 1.5%–2%" "There are risks to our view: Yields could continue dropping." MMMM...so which is it? Short term observation, in the several days the 10 year treasury signals are not encouraging for higher-rated bonds. Price broke above 200 MA and MACD was in a minus and now is positive for several days. As usual, predicting rates is pretty difficult. Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on Aug 10, 2021 14:35:08 GMT
Good. Another buying opportunity coming for EDV down the road?
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 10, 2021 14:47:49 GMT
I "love" articles like that one "our base case view we expect yields to edge modestly higher back into a range of about 1.5%–2%" "There are risks to our view: Yields could continue dropping." MMMM...so which is it? Short term observation, in the several days the 10 year treasury signals are not encouraging for higher-rated bonds. Price broke above 200 MA and MACD was in a minus and now is positive for several days. As usual, predicting rates is pretty difficult. That's my whole point FD. Earlier this year when I was starting to buy tranches of the long bond some people here, not you, asked what is the rush? Rates are obviously going up right? You are losing money as rates go up. I responded I wanted to get the insurance position the long bond offers because I do not know when the next market crash is coming. Nobody calls me and says Paul it's coming tomorrow so buy all your long bonds today. Turns out I didn't need to wait for a market crash for the long bond to rally. It rallied even into the teeth of a market rally. I've since sold some long bond and taken a few thousand in profits and just sitting still for now. Turned out to be a good move for me despite the criticism that rates were obviously going up. We have camps of professional experts: Rates definitely going down: Scott Minerd, Steven Major, David Rosenberg We don't really know: Pimco article. Gundlach thinks left alone rates should go up but Fed wants to cap 30 yr at 2%. Rates definitely going up: Rest of people and a large amount at that. I agree we don't really know. So I subscribe to wisdom and suggestion of the rates going down camp and Sebastien Page and Precedence Wealth in Canada to add some long bonds in one's portfolio. I am not buying at these prices but watching for entry point again so I can get my full position in. My target is 3% to 5% PV and I am only half way now. It's good ballast for a portfolio and good diversification insurance in my quest for an all bases covered portfolio.: Edit: You mentioned once you were unfamiliar with Precedence. Here is one video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv1JHybLnHMHere is second one: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk_nbsh1Jk&list=PUIstqTVJYHwiolPcyrJckQg&index=60
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Post by Chahta on Aug 10, 2021 15:39:31 GMT
Paul please post at the entry level price. I bought at $125 and sold later. I would love to buy again at $125.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 10, 2021 16:11:52 GMT
Paul please post at the entry level price. I bought at $125 and sold later. I would love to buy again at $125. Chahta ... My focus is on the 30 yr rate. For me, when it reaches "around 2.25%" that is good entry price and good ballast for a portfolio. I would be buying a tranche. Then with .10% jumps I would buy more. Whatever price I am buying, I track also. Naturally I want to be buying at cheaper price with each subsequent buy. I don't like TLT. I like more tilt toward the 30 yr via ZROZ or EDV.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 10, 2021 16:36:10 GMT
paulr888 , I'm really glad it works for you. If you ask me where rates, inflation, stocks will be in 2-3-6 months I will say, I have no idea because nobody does but all the "experts" know and why I giggle. I don't why they have to predict ST or LT and look like fools many times. When they asked Bogle he said he doesn't have a clue. I keep reading these articles because investing is my passion but I make decisions based only on market conditions, charts and trends. They are correct...until they are not, and then I switch. Luckily, most times it works for months-years. You asked me about my mistakes, I don't call them mistakes, they are hurdles and part of my system. Sometimes, I buy a new position, and it doesn't work (= a "mistake"), it will be traded/switched pretty quickly within days/weeks. A position is at least 15-20%. My 2 cents Observation: I don't think a conservative retiree (at least 50-60% in bonds) can make anything close to the last 10 years. I'm almost sure that typical 50/50 portfolio can't get 7-8%. This portfolio can also suffer 20% decline. The only good option is to sell a nice % to cash in high risk markets to protect capital. TLT/EDV can't do either and if they can, you got to hold at least 30%.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 10, 2021 16:57:28 GMT
paulr888 , I'm really glad it works for you. If you ask me where rates, inflation, stocks will be in 2-3-6 months I will say, I have no idea because nobody does but all the "experts" know and why I giggle. I don't why they have to predict ST or LT and look like fools many times. When they asked Bogle he said he doesn't have a clue. I keep reading these articles because investing is my passion but I make decisions based only on market conditions, charts and trends. They are correct...until they are not, and then I switch. Luckily, most times it works for months-years. You asked me about my mistakes, I don't call them mistakes, they are hurdles and part of my system. Sometimes, I buy a new position, and it doesn't work (= a "mistake"), it will be traded/switched pretty quickly within days/weeks. A position is at least 15-20%. My 2 cents Observation: I don't think a conservative retiree (at least 50-60% in bonds) can make anything close to the last 10 years. I'm almost sure that typical 50/50 portfolio can't get 7-8%. This portfolio can also suffer 20% decline. The only good option is to sell a nice % to cash in high risk markets to protect capital. TLT/EDV can't do either and if they can, you got to hold at least 30%. I understand most of what you are saying with a but. But if bear market and it goes down 20% of more, the 30 yr bond can help blunt the blow and it does not have to be at least 30% of portfolio. As one of the Precedence videos pointed out, the multiplier effect of a 1% drop in rates and holding a 30yr bond is a large gain to your holding. Sebastien Page of TRPrice says he uses 3% to 5% long bond in their portfolios. It is a relatively small allocation for very nice support when you need it, just like any other insurance premium you pay in life.
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Post by helmut on Aug 10, 2021 20:04:29 GMT
paulr888 , As one of the Precedence videos pointed out, the multiplier effect of a 1% drop in rates and holding a 30yr bond is a large gain to your holding. Sebastien Page of TRPrice says he uses 3% to 5% long bond in their portfolios. It is a relatively small allocation for very nice support when you need it, just like any other insurance premium you pay in life. Paulr, Using just 3% to 5% long-term treasuries may not give you the support you need. Look at PRWCX during 2008. Using high yield low volatility equities with such a small amount of LT treasuries may sacrifice TR for low volatility. Using more volatile equities with a higher allotment of LT treasuries can give you better TR with just a smooth ride along the way. LINK
helmut
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 10, 2021 20:28:09 GMT
paulr888 , As one of the Precedence videos pointed out, the multiplier effect of a 1% drop in rates and holding a 30yr bond is a large gain to your holding. Sebastien Page of TRPrice says he uses 3% to 5% long bond in their portfolios. It is a relatively small allocation for very nice support when you need it, just like any other insurance premium you pay in life. Paulr, Using just 3% to 5% long-term treasuries may not give you the support you need. Look at PRWCX during 2008. Using high yield low volatility equities with such a small amount of LT treasuries may sacrifice TR for low volatility. Using more volatile equities with a higher allotment of LT treasuries can give you better TR with just a smooth ride along the way. LINK
helmut +1 3-5% doesn't have any big influence on Total portfolio and why over 20 years, the min I used to buy is 10% and now usually it's 15-20%. We know that in a sharp market drop, when you needed it most, correlation gets much higher, in most cases only treasuries do better and LT do much better. In the last 10-20-30 years LT treasuries gave you performance + ballast. The next 5 years don't look as good. I will surprise if they get you 3-4% annually. Looking over 20 years, it's very difficult to find a fund with a good performance + good ballast including all the alternative funds. I came to the conclusion that selling to cash is the best choice for me as a very conservative retiree. I don't have good options with ST+LT performance.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 11, 2021 1:33:14 GMT
paulr888 , As one of the Precedence videos pointed out, the multiplier effect of a 1% drop in rates and holding a 30yr bond is a large gain to your holding. Sebastien Page of TRPrice says he uses 3% to 5% long bond in their portfolios. It is a relatively small allocation for very nice support when you need it, just like any other insurance premium you pay in life. Paulr, Using just 3% to 5% long-term treasuries may not give you the support you need. Look at PRWCX during 2008. Using high yield low volatility equities with such a small amount of LT treasuries may sacrifice TR for low volatility. Using more volatile equities with a higher allotment of LT treasuries can give you better TR with just a smooth ride along the way. LINK
helmut Hi helmut ... I agree with you. That is why I would never say you are crazy with 25% long bond. That is the allocation of the traditional Permanent Portfolio created by Harry Browne in the 1980s. And it has done very nicely. My problem is this. Being a bucketeer, I have about 33% PV in bucket 1, liquid generally low volatility bond OEFs. I can shave a few % off for long bonds but not more than 3%. I do get some long bonds in a couple of my bond OEFs too. So I look at it and say a little bit of something is better than a whole lot of nothing for me. And I do envy you at 25% allocation. Thinking further, I do have 14% in bucket 2 bond CEFs but I want those for income. Asset allocation is about choices and compromises, isn't it. Sometimes I wish I had a 200% pie to allocate. lol
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 11, 2021 1:41:21 GMT
paulr888 , As one of the Precedence videos pointed out, the multiplier effect of a 1% drop in rates and holding a 30yr bond is a large gain to your holding. Sebastien Page of TRPrice says he uses 3% to 5% long bond in their portfolios. It is a relatively small allocation for very nice support when you need it, just like any other insurance premium you pay in life. Paulr, Using just 3% to 5% long-term treasuries may not give you the support you need. Look at PRWCX during 2008. Using high yield low volatility equities with such a small amount of LT treasuries may sacrifice TR for low volatility. Using more volatile equities with a higher allotment of LT treasuries can give you better TR with just a smooth ride along the way. LINK
helmut +1 3-5% doesn't have any big influence on Total portfolio and why over 20 years, the min I used to buy is 10% and now usually it's 15-20%. We know that in a sharp market drop, when you needed it most, correlation gets much higher, in most cases only treasuries do better and LT do much better.
In the last 10-20-30 years LT treasuries gave you performance + ballast. The next 5 years don't look as good. I will surprise if they get you 3-4% annually. Looking over 20 years, it's very difficult to find a fund with a good performance + good ballast including all the alternative funds. I came to the conclusion that selling to cash is the best choice for me as a very conservative retiree. I don't have good options with ST+LT performance. I disagree FD. You are making my point in your convoluted response. You know the math on a 1% drop in the 30 yr Treasury. You want 10% to 20% in your bond OEFs is fine, your decision. You never talk about a long bond however. You simply do not need that much. I think you missed one of the videos. And you certainly don't invest in the long bond for yield. Maybe you missed both videos. But I will say this. If Sebastien Page is using 3% to 5% long bond in TR Price portfolios, that is good enough for me. I would bet he is smarter than the average bear when it comes to this stuff. My new game plan is a couple of back and forths and then I am done on a topic. I am done here.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 11, 2021 12:28:03 GMT
We don't have to agree and don't take every comment personally. As always, I'm talking about a generic investor, not you. This investor doesn't have to compromise or must own 20-30 funds or buckets or high distribution positions. It's a choice. Pretty easy to prove that 3-5% have min influence on a portfolio vs 20%.
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Post by chang on Aug 11, 2021 12:53:13 GMT
"Pretty easy to prove that 3-5% have min influence on a portfolio vs 20%."
I don't see that this means anything. And 50% has more influence than 20%. So?
What matters is the entire package. I have around 30-40 different investments (not all funds) in 7 accounts. I know everything about every one of them — can probably tell you the average P/E, yield and top 5 holdings of every fund. I know exactly what each one does, why I bought it, why I keep it. Some are close to 10% or $1m but most are about 2-3% or less. They are all parts in a machine. The machine works.
I see no value in claiming or asserting "inherent principles" related to numbers / sizes of funds. It all depends on the owner. If the owner knows what he's doing, that's all that matters.
Oh, and by the way, all of my funds are the BEST funds for the job. If I knew of better ones, I would own those.
Apologies for the OT, but this kind of criticism keeps coming up and I think it's a non sequitur. I will not comment again here.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 11, 2021 16:14:52 GMT
"Pretty easy to prove that 3-5% have min influence on a portfolio vs 20%." I don't see that this means anything. And 50% has more influence than 20%. So? What matters is the entire package. I have around 30-40 different investments (not all funds) in 7 accounts. I know everything about every one of them — can probably tell you the average P/E, yield and top 5 holdings of every fund. I know exactly what each one does, why I bought it, why I keep it. Some are close to 10% or $1m but most are about 2-3% or less. They are all parts in a machine. The machine works. I see no value in claiming or asserting "inherent principles" related to numbers / sizes of funds. It all depends on the owner. If the owner knows what he's doing, that's all that matters. Oh, and by the way, all of my funds are the BEST funds for the job. If I knew of better ones, I would own those. Apologies for the OT, but this kind of criticism keeps coming up and I think it's a non sequitur. I will not comment again here. I agree with the above BUT it's a bit out of context. We are talking about TLT,EDV and many investors who use them are looking for ballast for their stocks and maybe higher income which is very small now. Basically, TLT+EDV are used for ballast, especially in market meltdown. They are much better than your typical bonds such as BND,BIV and others. So, 3-5% will do very little for protections. Below is a real case in 2020. While VFINX=SP500 + EEM lost over 30% BND+BIV made only 3% DBLTX lost money, DODIX made about 2%, PCI (CEF) lost over 40 but TLT+EDV made 15-22%. Attachments:
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