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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2021 0:25:37 GMT
So far this year, International (non US) is again dragging down my returns. I was checking why I am underperforming SP500 again and it is all due to International.
International and Value has become forever wait. Though value has performed somewhat better recently.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 22, 2021 12:52:27 GMT
Unexpected rise in dollar from Jan-Mar subtracted from foreign returns. Now dollar is weakening in Apr, so foreign returns should improve. See foreign and US charts in the bottom panels. Keep in mind that foreign markets have more cyclical exposures, and Japan is the most cyclical of all. LINK
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Post by fishingrod on May 10, 2021 17:51:48 GMT
I don't know whether others' have noticed but, Vanguard InTl' Growth fund has sold 33.75% of their position in Tesla. This portfolio info is of March 31st 2021 from M*. Tesla is now VWILX's 5 top holding with 3.40%. I hope they caught a top.
Fishingrod
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 15, 2022 6:30:52 GMT
International: I mentioned this single stock in passing in another thread, just today: a Helsinki-based bank that operates throughout the Nordic countries, primarily Scandinavia. Might be worth a look? Nordea Bank ADR. The dividend yield looks entirely nuts. Could it be real? NRDBY. investor.morningstar.com/quotes/0P0000P7J2
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2022 10:28:06 GMT
My returns are getting dragged down by my international holdings. I am starting to build my individual stocks there and harvest tax losses. Chang - also not a happy holder of FEMKX.
I am toying with the idea of having an international separately managed account at Fidelity. They only do a developed one and their returns are impressive.
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Post by chang on Jul 15, 2022 11:38:06 GMT
My returns are getting dragged down by my international holdings. I am starting to build my individual stocks there and harvest tax losses. Chang - also not a happy holder of FEMKX. I sympathize. I exchanged my FEMKX for FBGRX last week. They actually move together quite frequently, but I am betting on US LCG > EM over the next year.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 15, 2022 21:15:05 GMT
16% foreign here, all in funds, not single stocks. But actually faring better than my US stuff. TRAMX down -5.91% YTD PRWCX (biggest holding) down -14.37%
doggy poopies.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 15, 2022 23:52:08 GMT
For over 10 years. - international is coming back. I'm still waiting. - US stocks % as part of the global stocks will continue shrinking. They actually grew. - You must be diversified. No, you don't. - International valuation is cheaper...mmm...same as above. - in the next a few years with all the global mess, do you want to own international? Not so much. I prefer to own US LC. Remember, 40% of the SP500 revenues come from abroad.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2022 0:47:32 GMT
My returns are getting dragged down by my international holdings. I am starting to build my individual stocks there and harvest tax losses. Chang - also not a happy holder of FEMKX. I sympathize. I exchanged my FEMKX for FBGRX last week. They actually move together quite frequently, but I am betting on US LCG > EM over the next year. Out of both my Fidelity international funds - FEMKX and FIGRX. Feels good. Decent size losses. i can use them to offset, but still a loss. I have to decide whether to turn over to Fidelity in a separately managed international account or take it on. Weekend food for thought. Big lesson learned - be careful holding these type of funds in taxable accounts.
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Post by chang on Jul 16, 2022 7:48:39 GMT
“Big lesson learned - be careful holding these type of funds in taxable accounts.”
The problem with taxable accounts is CGs. As for the loss — you are better off, naturally, in a taxable account where you can harvest it.
I have tried to put actively managed OEFs into IRAs, and keep ETFs and individual stocks in taxable.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2022 0:28:15 GMT
On Wealthtrack this week - IQDG was recommended by the guest. International industrialized country dividend fund. I'm going to watch it. Yield is less than 3.5% though.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 31, 2022 14:45:24 GMT
Strange that we hear about all the problems that Europe is having, but it had POSITIVE GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2.
The US on the other hand had NEGATIVE GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2.
These are real GDP growth data. So, I am wondering if different inflation figures and currencies could play a role in this.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 31, 2022 17:37:02 GMT
Strange that we hear about all the problems that Europe is having, but it had POSITIVE GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2. The US on the other hand had NEGATIVE GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2. These are real GDP growth data. So, I am wondering if different inflation figures and currencies could play a role in this. So am I. The Euro has lost almost 20% since early 2021 and fiscal deficits are huge, so these may be factors driving growth.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 1, 2022 23:37:28 GMT
Strange that we hear about all the problems that Europe is having, but it had POSITIVE GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2. The US on the other hand had NEGATIVE GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2. These are real GDP growth data. So, I am wondering if different inflation figures and currencies could play a role in this. Europe GDP is a mishmash of different countries with huge differences( link). Attachments:
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Post by mnfish on Aug 4, 2022 11:55:24 GMT
"Maersk said Wednesday that it expects a slowdown in global shipping container demand in 2022 amid weakening consumer confidence and supply chain congestion." "Maersk now expects demand to be at the lower end of its range, between -1% and 1% in 2022, as rising inflation and energy prices darken the global economic outlook." "Maersk warned that the slowdown was especially pronounced in Europe, where stockpiles have been building up at ports and in warehouses as consumer demand wanes." "In Europe, supply chain congestion remained as retailers and manufacturers kept containers in ports and warehouses due to weak final demand."
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Post by Norbert on Aug 4, 2022 12:43:15 GMT
The BoE just raised rates as expected. However, unlike the Fed, the BoE is offering forward guidance: inflation to peak at 13% this Fall and the UK to experience five quarters of recession.
I can see why the Fed didn't want to offer forward guidance, if it's anything like what the the UK can expect.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 4, 2022 13:00:50 GMT
The BoE just raised rates as expected. However, unlike the Fed, the BoE is offering forward guidance: inflation to peak at 13% this Fall and the UK to experience five quarters of recession.
I can see why the Fed didn't want to offer forward guidance, if it's anything like what the the UK can expect. Yes! Personally I would prefer some forward guidance rather than the random happy talk we are getting.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2022 13:12:45 GMT
Can we analogize the UK situation to the US? I am going to look at this. One thing - how is their CPI measured? We likely did have double digit inflation - it just didn't reflect in the numbers. Are they at the same point in the cycle as us. Any effects from Brexit in this estimate? Lack of tech, heavy on banks - any effect?
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Post by Norbert on Aug 4, 2022 13:43:39 GMT
@slooow
There's some interesting commentary here:
What I heard the BoE Governor Bailey say is that that inflation needs to stopped sooner rather than later, when action will be even more difficult. As for fundamental similarities / differences to the US, I'm not seeing it clearly. Perhaps greater energy import dependence?
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Post by richardsok on Aug 4, 2022 14:21:41 GMT
@slooow
There's some interesting commentary here:
What I heard the BoE Governor Bailey say is that that inflation needs to stopped sooner rather than later, when action will be even more difficult. As for fundamental similarities / differences to the US, I'm not seeing it clearly. Perhaps greater energy import dependence?
Isn't Old Blighty pumping oceans of North Sea oil?
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Post by Norbert on Aug 4, 2022 14:43:06 GMT
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Post by johnsmith on Oct 15, 2022 5:06:53 GMT
my estimates of foreign PEs on Oct 15, 2022 VPL - Vanguard Pacific ETF at $57 is PE of approx. 9.5 VWO - Vanguard Emerging ETF at $35 is PE of approx. 8.5 VTI - Vanguard Total US, PE approx. 17 This of course assumes that margins, profits do not compress. I don't know about international market margins and profits; Hussman points out and so have a few others (after he did) that US profit margins are the fattest in history and if mean reversion gods do exist, margins and profits should go down increasing downward pressure on prices.
Case for Emerging Markets, Podcast interviewing Gavekal:
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2022 5:29:44 GMT
my estimates of foreign PEs on Oct 15, 2022 VPL - Vanguard Pacific ETF at $57 is PE of approx. 9.5 VWO - Vanguard Emerging ETF at $35 is PE of approx. 8.5 VTI - Vanguard Total US, PE approx. 17 This of course assumes that margins, profits do not compress. I don't know about international market margins and profits; Hussman points out and so have a few others (after he did) that US profit margins are the fattest in history and if mean reversion gods do exist, margins and profits should go down increasing downward pressure on prices.
Case for Emerging Markets, Podcast interviewing Gavekal: US is growth oriented while Europe is value stocks. So US should have higher P/E in general.
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