Post by uncleharley on Dec 25, 2020 18:06:16 GMT
One of the clearest ways to confirm the trends of stocks or commodities is to observe, on an intermediate term basis, how the current movement correlates to the ups and downs of the USD. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 shows that when the value of the USD was positively correlated to the S&P 500 in the 1st qtr of the yr, the march sell-off was soon to follow. When the correlation began to turn negative, the rally in stocks began and those trends continue today. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p99035663394&listNum=86&a=524485138 The tool at the bottom of the display plots the correlation.
The weekly chart for the CRB index shows a very similar trend. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p55054425896&a=412434246&listNum=86 The precise timing of the changes will vary between the two charts, but trends remain the same.
So what's the point??? The point is that based on the intermediate term charts of domestic Stock & Commodities there is an established trend in prices that should continue well into next yr. Those trends are confirmed by the inverse trend of the USD.
The current, intermediate term downward trend for the USD also has implications for future inflation and The Feds support of interest rates, but that seems to require other tracking tools or skills.
The weekly chart for the CRB index shows a very similar trend. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p55054425896&a=412434246&listNum=86 The precise timing of the changes will vary between the two charts, but trends remain the same.
So what's the point??? The point is that based on the intermediate term charts of domestic Stock & Commodities there is an established trend in prices that should continue well into next yr. Those trends are confirmed by the inverse trend of the USD.
The current, intermediate term downward trend for the USD also has implications for future inflation and The Feds support of interest rates, but that seems to require other tracking tools or skills.