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Post by xray on Mar 28, 2021 20:46:10 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what income investors should do, this is what I am observing:
This past week: 6.24 [trend continues downward]
Last week: 6.44 [out of buy cycles again]
Week before: 6.84 [out of buy signal cycles]
Week before that: 7.08
Earlier week: 7.24
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL"
3 - sell cycle starting
4-6 neutral [hold]
7 - starts earliest "start" buy cycles
8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities
9 - strong buy signals for "many" securities
10 - "invest" time
Disclosure: Selling shares in one security for CapGain, Re-Buying one security tomorrow for "cash" neutrality and strengthening the portfolio....
Bottom line: Not a time for "current" investing [IMHO] but time for "analysis" portfolio study....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Mar 29, 2021 16:24:37 GMT
I just posted a summary of the latest Merrill Lynch CEF commentary. Interesting to see how their thinking dovetails with yours.
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Post by xray on Apr 4, 2021 18:22:05 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "6" weeks on what "income" oriented investors should do, this is what I am observing:
This past week: 7.23 [trend changed to "BUY"]
Last week: 6.24 [out of buy cycles again]
Week before: 6.44 [out of buy signal cycles]
Week before that: 6.84
Earlier week: 7.08
Historical week #1: 7.24
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL"
3 - sell cycle starting
4-6 neutral [hold]
7 - starts earliest "start" buy cycles
8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities
9 - strong buy signals for "many" securities
10 - "invest" time
Disclosure: BUYING some securities [on 4/5] that are considered "undervalued" tomorrow and reducing current Cash to 31% of total portfolio from 54%....
Bottom line: A time for "current" investing [IMHO] for ["very"] selective buying [after careful analysis]....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Apr 4, 2021 18:30:32 GMT
Anything in particular, x?
For my part, tomorrow morning I plan to unload FTF & SDIV and buy more HEDJ and CET.
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Post by xray on Apr 4, 2021 19:07:09 GMT
richardsok, Can't mention anything of value currently because of some of our buying activities tomorrow [7 securities] where we always try to buy the securities at the lowest MktPrc possible [during the trading day]. After tomorrow, we can loosen up a little.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Apr 5, 2021 20:53:43 GMT
richardsok, Hope you did as well as many of us. Seven for seven went up today.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Apr 12, 2021 17:07:14 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "7" weeks on what "income" oriented investors might be doing, this is what I am observing:
This past week: 8.61 [trend changed to "STRONGER BUY"]
Last week: 7.23 [[trend changed to "BUY"]
Week before: 6.24 [out of buy signal cycles]
Week before that: 6.44
Earlier week: 6.84
Historical week #1, #2: 7.08, 7.24
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL"
3 - sell cycle starting
4-6 neutral [hold]
7 - starts earliest "start" buy cycles
8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities
9 - strong buy signals for "many" securities
10 - "invest" time
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of current portfolio on Saturday, some of us bought six (6) securities this morning [on 4/12] that were considered "undervalued" [8star thru 10star, Report card Grades 76 to 90, with "2" maximum sell codes] and "SOLD" for CapGain several (7) securities that had Report Card grades <60, and kept the current Cash to 31% of total portfolio from 31%....
Bottom line: After the 60 minute CBS program on Sunday Night, it was obvious that the market should not be going lower any time soon. A time for "current" investing [IMHO] for ["very"] selective buying [after careful analysis] and eliminating "those securities" that are currently not performing in a "continuing" UP market....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Apr 13, 2021 13:52:26 GMT
Keep in mind [for income oriented investors] that when you sell a security for a CapGain, that expected dividend is immediately "LOST" for the portfolio and some other investment [in the same div cycle] has to be made to keep one's yearly Goals & Objectives in tact. Any new dollar cost averaging for the same security previously sold [if/when made] could be higher [and thus the portfolio's "ROI" is directly [negatively] affected....
In addition, the timing of the buy/sell should be looked at "when in a dividend cycle". Sometimes our buying of a security is just "before the Div cycle" and thus the income investor gets the advantage of it [bonus] and increases their total dividend that was expected for the year. Traders take advantage of this and look for undervalued securities in the div cycle that investors have just sold....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Apr 18, 2021 21:48:34 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "7" weeks on what "income" oriented investors might be doing, this is what I am observing:
This past week: 8.62 [trend again as "STRONGER BUY"]
Last week: 8.61 [trend changed to "Stronger BUY"]
Week before: 7.23 [trend changed to "BUY"]
Week before that: 6.24 [out of buy range]
Earlier week: 6.44
Historical weeks [latest data showing first]: 6.84,7.08, 7.24
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL"
3 - sell cycle starting
4-6 neutral [hold]
7 - starts earliest "start" buy cycles
8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities
9 - strong buy signals for "many" securities
10 - "invest" time
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of current portfolio on Saturday, some of us are staying "pat" with current portfolio. Cash remains at 31%....
Bottom line: After the 60 minute CBS program on Sunday Night [last week], it was obvious that the market should not be going lower any time soon. A time for "current" investing [IMHO] for ["very"] selective buying [after careful analysis] and eliminating "those securities" that are currently not performing in a "continuing" UP market....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Apr 25, 2021 23:56:00 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what "income" oriented investors might be doing, this is what I am observing:
Estimated current "Week's" direction for Market:
This past week: 7.48 [trend downgraded again from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Last week: 7.78 [trend downgraded from Stronger Buy to "BUY"]
Week before: 8.17 [trend again increased to "Stronger BUY"]
Week before that: 8.08 [trend increased to "Stronger BUY"]
Earlier week: 8.02 [First cycle to "Stronger BUY" from "BUY"]
Sell Code weekly average for Portfolio's: 4.38
Definitions:
1.00-2.00 - "SELL" security
3.00 - sell cycle starting [reducing shares] of selective securities
4.00-6.00 neutral [hold or make selective changes to portfolio]
7.00 - starts earliest "start" [or initial] buy cycles
8.00 - stronger buy cycles [or initial BUY] signals for "selective" securities
9.00 - "Very" strong buy signals for additional "BUY's" to current "Portfolio" securities
10.00 - "Invest" time is "NOW"
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of current portfolio on Saturday, some of us are making selective changes to our current portfolio's [taking CapGains from 6 securities and buying additional shares on 5 securities]. Cash is slightly higher at 33%....
Bottom line:
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Apr 26, 2021 14:51:35 GMT
Making some portfolio changes this week....
Reduced CEF holdings on ACP/GLO/GLQ/RIV/USA/ZTR FOR BAD NUMB3RS and took additional CapGain on all.....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on May 3, 2021 15:20:17 GMT
Estimated current "Week's" apparent direction for Market:
This past week: 8.03 [trend upgraded from "Selective Buying/Selling" week to Buy (portfolio changes)]
Last week: 7.48 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Week before: 7.78 [trend downgraded from Stronger Buy to "BUY"]
Week before that: 8.17 [First cycle to "Stronger BUY" from "BUY"]
Earlier week: 8.08 [First cycle to "Stronger BUY" from "BUY"]
Sell Code for weekly average for Portfolio Securities: 8.4
Sell Code Definitions: ................................................................................................ Current Portfolio Securities Sell codes
1.00-2.00 - "SELL" security ........................................................................................ 0
3.00 - sell cycle starting [reducing shares] of selective securities ..................................... 0
4.00-6.00 neutral [hold or make selective changes to portfolio] ....................................... 4
7.00 - starts earliest "start" [or initial] BUY cycles .......................................................... 4
8.00 - stronger buy cycles [or initial BUY] signals for "selective" securities ........................ 1
9.00 - "Very" strong buy signals for additional "BUY's" to current "Portfolio" securities ........ 1
10.00 - "Invest" time is "NOW" .................................................................................... 8
Bottom Line: Continuing to harvest CapGains and not fight the market....
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of our current portfolio's on Saturday, some of us made selective changes [for Monday] to our current portfolio's [taking CapGains from all 6 securities and buying additional shares on 6 securities]. Cash is slightly higher of 27%....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on May 9, 2021 20:40:24 GMT
Estimated current "Week's" apparent direction for Market:
This past week: 7.83 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Last week: 8.03 [trend upgraded from "Selective Buying/Selling" week to Buy (portfolio changes)]
Week before: 7.48 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Week before that: 7.78 [trend downgraded from Stronger Buy to "BUY"] [First cycle to "Stronger BUY" from "BUY"]
Earlier week: 8.17 [First cycle to "Stronger BUY" from "BUY"]
Sell Code for weekly average for Portfolio Securities: 7.28
Sell Code Definitions: ................................................................................................ Current Portfolio Securities Status on Sell codes
1.00-2.00 - "SELL" security ........................................................................................ 1 [0.0059% of portfolio]
3.00 - sell cycle starting [reducing shares] of selective securities ..................................... 1 [2.49%]
4.00-6.00 neutral [hold or make selective changes to portfolio] ....................................... 2 0.0075% & 0.0265%]
7.00 - starts earliest "start" [or initial] BUY cycles .......................................................... 4
8.00 - stronger buy cycles [or initial BUY] signals for "selective" securities ........................ 0
9.00 - "Very" strong buy signals for additional "BUY's" to current "Portfolio" securities ........ 2
10.00 - "Invest" time is "NOW" .................................................................................... 6
Bottom Line: Continuing to harvest CapGains and not fight the market....
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of our current portfolio's on Saturday, some of us will made selective changes [for Monday] to our current portfolio's ["taking additional CapGains" from all 4 securities and buying additional shares on 6 securities]. Cash is higher and now 34%....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on May 16, 2021 17:02:22 GMT
Estimated current "Week's" apparent direction for Market:
This past week: 7.64 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Last week: 7.83 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Week before: 8.03 [trend upgraded from "Selective Buying/Selling" week to Buy (portfolio changes)]
Week before that: 7.48 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Earlier week: 7.78 [trend downgraded from Stronger Buy to "BUY"] [First cycle to "Stronger BUY" from "BUY"]
Sell Code for weekly average for Portfolio Securities: 7.22
Sell Code Definitions: ................................................................................................ Current Portfolio Securities Status on Sell codes
1.00-2.00 - "SELL" security ........................................................................................ 0
3.00 - sell cycle starting [reducing shares] of selective securities ..................................... 0
4.00-6.00 neutral [hold or make selective changes to portfolio] ....................................... 7
7.00 - starts earliest "start" [or initial] BUY cycles .......................................................... 5
8.00 - stronger buy cycles [or initial BUY] signals for "selective" securities ........................ 0
9.00 - "Very" strong buy signals for additional "BUY's" to current "Portfolio" securities ........ 0
10.00 - "Invest" time is "NOW" .................................................................................... 6
Bottom Line: Continuing to harvest CapGains and not fight the market....
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of our current portfolio's on Saturday, some of us will be "BUYING" [on Monday] additional shares for 5 securities in our current portfolio's. Current Cash levels will go lower to 16%....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on May 23, 2021 16:37:25 GMT
Estimated current "Week's" apparent direction for Market:
This past week: 7.53 [trend downgraded to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Last week: 7.64 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Week before: 7.83 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Week before that: 8.03 [trend upgraded from "Selective Buying/Selling" week to Buy (portfolio changes)]
Earlier week: 7.48 [trend downgraded from Buy to "Weaker Selective Buying/Selling" week (portfolio changes)]
Disclosure: After completing a analysis of our current portfolio's on Saturday, some of us will be "BUYING" [on Monday] additional shares for 1 undervalued security in our current portfolio's....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on May 30, 2021 22:46:16 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what income investors should be doing [single opinion], this is what I am observing:
This past week: 6.00 [trend continues downward]
Last week: 6.24 [trend continues downward]
Week before: 6.44 [out of buy cycles again]
Week before that: 6.84
Earlier week: 7.08
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL" non performing securities in current portfolio's
3 - selling "over valued" shares cycle [reducing % of shares being held (Rf issue)]
4-6 neutral - hold - change portfolio to sector favorability [as required]
7 - "start" buy cycles for undervalued securities in analysis from "watch List"
8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities
9 - add additional shares to existing portfolio's [where applicable]
10 - "invest" time
Disclosure: SOLD some shares in FOUR securities for CapGain [plus 1 for minor CapLoss], Re-Buying TWO undervalued securities, adding shares to TWO securities currently in RO's. Also, added some additional "cash" to neutrality [now 30% of portfolio] and strengthening assessment [lowering the previous "RISK" (Rf)] of the current portfolio....
Bottom line: Not a time for any "NEW Additions" to our portfolio holdings [IMHO] but time for "extensive analysis" of our existing portfolio's....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by kzug60 on May 31, 2021 1:27:58 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what income investors should be doing [single opinion], this is what I am observing: This past week: 6.00 [trend continues downward] Last week: 6.24 [trend continues downward] Week before: 6.44 [out of buy cycles again] Week before that: 6.84 Earlier week: 7.08 Definitions: 1,2 - "SELL" non performing securities in current portfolio's 3 - selling "over valued" shares cycle [reducing % of shares being held (Rf issue)] 4-6 neutral - hold - change portfolio to sector favorability [as required] 7 - "start" buy cycles for undervalued securities in analysis from "watch List" 8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities 9 - add additional shares to existing portfolio's [where applicable] 10 - "invest" time Disclosure: SOLD some shares in FOUR securities for CapGain [plus 1 for minor CapLoss], Re-Buying TWO undervalued securities, adding shares to TWO securities currently in RO's. Also, added some additional "cash" to neutrality [now 30% of portfolio] and strengthening assessment [lowering the previous "RISK" (Rf)] of the current portfolio.... Bottom line: Not a time for any "NEW Additions" to our portfolio holdings [IMHO] but time for "extensive analysis" of our existing portfolio's.... Live Long and Prosper.... Thanks. How are these numbers computed?
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Post by xray on May 31, 2021 21:12:10 GMT
kzug60, Your:How are these numbers computed? The numb3rs are computer driven [using strictly math]. A very different methodology compared to the norm. The conclusions are "single opinion" and must be compared to the "norm" methodology. Some of us use the "single" math approach [for some time now].... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 6, 2021 23:30:57 GMT
Looking at my current [math] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what income investors should be doing [single opinion], this is what I am observing:
This past week: 6.00 [Market looking for direction]
Last week: 6.00 [trend continues downward]
Week before: 6.24 [out of buy cycles again]
Week before that: 7.08
Earlier week: 7.08
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL" non performing securities in current portfolio's
3 - selling "over valued" shares cycle [reducing % of shares being held (Rf issue)]
4-6 neutral - hold - change portfolio to sector favorability [as required]
7 - "start" buy cycles for undervalued securities in analysis from "watch List"
8 - stronger buy cycles signals for "selective" securities
9 - add additional shares to existing portfolio's [where applicable]
10 - "invest" time
Disclosure: Re-Buying "FOUR" undervalued securities [book values and/or NAV's increasing but mktPrc's not following (or going lower)]. "Cash" now at 20% of portfolio. We should be aware that MktPrc's [across the board] wk-to-wk have been continually increasing and giving many of us a "false sense of security" [like in 1928 before the 1929 crash]. Many unseasoned investors believe that this phenomenon will continue "forever" and we will never have a market [(15-25%) correction with the severe MktPrc increases bringing possible individual major losses (in the long run)] ....
Bottom line: Not a time for any "NEW Additions" to our portfolio holdings [IMHO] but time for "extensive analysis" of our "existing" [Quality] portfolio's....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 13, 2021 17:38:15 GMT
Looking at my current [math based] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what income oriented investors should be doing [single opinion], this is what I am observing:
This past week: 8.11 [Market high "BUY SIGNAL"]
Last week: 6.00 [Market looking for direction]
Week before: 6.24 [Market looking for direction]
Week before: 6.24 [out of buy cycles again]
Earlier week: 7.08
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL" non performing securities in current portfolio's
3 - "SHARE REDUCTION"- [reducing % of shares currently being held (Rf -RISK ALLOCATION issue)]
4-6 "NEUTRAL" - hold - "CHANGE" portfolio to sector favorability [as required]
7 - "START BUY CYCLES" for undervalued securities in analysis from current "watch List"
8 - "CONTINUE BUY CYCLES" [signals for "selective" securities increasing in either NAV or book values]
9 - "HOT MARKET" - add additional shares to existing portfolio's that are performing and increasing in value [where applicable]
10 - "BEST SIGNAL" for investing and is "invest" time
Disclosure: Stood pat this week [no current Buy/sell activity with 17% cash available. Time to let the market make our CapGains [going forward]
Bottom line: Not a time for any "NEW Additions" to our portfolio holdings from our current non-performing "WATCH LIST" [IMHO] but time for continuing "extensive analysis" of our "existing" [Quality] portfolio's....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 20, 2021 14:59:28 GMT
Looking at my current [math based] numb3rs for the past "5" weeks on what income oriented investors should be doing [single opinion], this is what I am observing:
This past week: 7.58 [Market continues with "BUY SIGNAL"]
Last week: 8.11 [Market high "BUY SIGNAL"]
Week before: 6.00 [Market looking for direction]
Week before: 6.24 [out of buy cycles again]
Earlier week: 6.24 [out of buy cycles again]
Definitions:
1,2 - "SELL" non performing securities in current portfolio's
3 - "SHARE REDUCTION"- [reducing % of shares currently being held (Rf -RISK ALLOCATION issue)]
4-6 "NEUTRAL" - hold - "CHANGE" portfolio to sector favorability [as required]
7 - "START BUY CYCLES" for undervalued securities in analysis from current "watch List"
8 - "CONTINUE BUY CYCLES" [signals for "selective" securities increasing in either NAV or book values]
9 - "HOT MARKET" - add additional shares to existing portfolio's that are performing and increasing in value [where applicable]
10 - "BEST SIGNAL" for investing and is "invest" time
Disclosure: Bought additional shares of TWO and HGLB during the past week [with 12% cash available]. Time to let the market make our CapGains [going forward]. With that said, CapGains [not yet taken] for our portfolio's dropped a little with the market decline last week....
Bottom line: Not a time for any "NEW Additions" to our portfolio holdings from our current non-performing "WATCH LIST" [IMHO] but time for continuing "extensive analysis" of our "existing" [Quality] portfolio's....
Live Long and Prosper....
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