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Post by chang on Mar 11, 2021 10:54:02 GMT
After being a skeptic of MS for a long time, I finally bought some TSIIX in February 9. A month later, it's only gone down.
I'm thinking of concluding this experiment and capping my loss, and sticking with VUSFX, where most of my non-equity money is.
Cut and run, or wait?
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Post by rhythmmethod on Mar 11, 2021 14:24:09 GMT
After being a skeptic of MS for a long time, I finally bought some TSIIX in February 9. A month later, it's only gone down. I'm thinking of concluding this experiment and capping my loss, and sticking with VUSFX, where most of my non-equity money is. Cut and run, or wait? Hey Chang, I hope all is going well with your new business possibilities. Rg. your question, of course no one can really suggest a correct move. I'm not familiar with TSIIX other than you said your research revealed it to be the best of the MS group. I bot some PTIAX around the same time as you did TSIIX. It also has gone down. I've made a decision to let PIMIX and PTIAX serve as my MS holdings, which I've decided as a group are about as good a moderate bet as can be made under these conditions. I also think we are going to return to a time (sooner than later) where FI in general is doing better due to circumstances we don't know yet. So as a result, I've been adding a bit (to PTIAX) to lower my cost basis and turned all dividends to re-invest. If you really believe the FI doldrums are here for a long time, VUSFX is probably your best bet. I bet Norbert has a thought. |
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Post by Norbert on Mar 11, 2021 14:43:09 GMT
I don't recall your reasons for buying TSIIX, so it's difficult to say. Could you remind us? Most categories of bonds have had a tough month, including your VWEAX (which lost more). IG also did poorly. So, TSIIX is no outlier. Perhaps the bigger question is whether to own any bonds at all during this period, aside from short duration cash equivalents. Perhaps we could ask Megan Markle to look at this? OK, the Duchess doesn't know the first thing about bonds, but she could probably tell you if your portfolio exhibits any unconscious racism. steadyeddy has been buying long dated Treasuries, so it's clear that different investors see the situation differently. |
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Post by Chahta on Mar 11, 2021 18:01:25 GMT
After being a skeptic of MS for a long time, I finally bought some TSIIX in February 9. A month later, it's only gone down. I'm thinking of concluding this experiment and capping my loss, and sticking with VUSFX, where most of my non-equity money is. Cut and run, or wait?
Norbert: "Perhaps we could ask Megan Markle to look at this? OK, the Duchess doesn't know the first thing about bonds, but she could probably tell you if your portfolio exhibits any unconscious racism." I love it! |
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 11, 2021 18:10:12 GMT
I don't recall your reasons for buying TSIIX, so it's difficult to say. Could you remind us? Most categories of bonds have had a tough month, including your VWEAX (which lost more). IG also did poorly. So, TSIIX is no outlier. Perhaps the bigger question is whether to own any bonds at all during this period, aside from short duration cash equivalents. Perhaps we could ask Megan Markle to look at this? OK, the Duchess doesn't know the first thing about bonds, but she could probably tell you if your portfolio exhibits any unconscious racism. steadyeddy has been buying long dated Treasuries, so it's clear that different investors see the situation differently. , I am very happy with my long dated Treasuries.. and I am rofl with your unconscious racism comment. |
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Post by Chahta on Mar 11, 2021 19:25:57 GMT
I don't recall your reasons for buying TSIIX, so it's difficult to say. Could you remind us? Most categories of bonds have had a tough month, including your VWEAX (which lost more). IG also did poorly. So, TSIIX is no outlier. Perhaps the bigger question is whether to own any bonds at all during this period, aside from short duration cash equivalents. Perhaps we could ask Megan Markle to look at this? OK, the Duchess doesn't know the first thing about bonds, but she could probably tell you if your portfolio exhibits any unconscious racism. steadyeddy has been buying long dated Treasuries, so it's clear that different investors see the situation differently. , I am very happy with my long dated Treasuries.. and I am rofl with your unconscious racism comment. As I said....the time to buy is when they are (getting) cheap |
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 12, 2021 19:37:47 GMT
After being a skeptic of MS for a long time, I finally bought some TSIIX in February 9. A month later, it's only gone down. I'm thinking of concluding this experiment and capping my loss, and sticking with VUSFX, where most of my non-equity money is. Cut and run, or wait? Rates are on a huge uptrend. You bought near the top in 2021. Most of the funds that worked YTD are invested mostly in specialized securitized. They have a chance to keep working but I don't think you will like them. VUSFX is up 0.11% in 2021. Attachments:
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Post by chang on May 4, 2021 23:09:45 GMT
My TSIIX is now just about back to what I paid for it (dividends reinvested). All in all, pretty anemic. Confirming my feeling that a super cheap ST bond fund is probably the best and easiest way to ballast an AA while focusing on equities for growth. FICDX has been my big winner in 2021.
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Post by chang on May 31, 2021 13:46:02 GMT
Decided to sell the remaining bonds in my IRA; I want to use this valuable space for all equity. Fortunately I am up around $600 with TSIIX even though I bought somewhat precariously at the top in Feb.
I continue to be of the opinion that bond yields are ridiculously low and bond holders are not being paid for the risk they are carrying. There is moreover so much opportunity in other assets, I frankly think "Yugo racing" is just a waste of time. I will stick to mostly ST/UST for ballast only. I remain wary of MS: I don't believe in free lunches especially where bonds are concerned. I think the smartest thing I can do is stick to cheap ST stuff like VUSFX and focus on where the real money is made.
Will post my final trades on Tuesday.
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Post by Chahta on May 31, 2021 15:41:04 GMT
As long as one can handle the volatility I believe mostly (50-55%) equities is the way to go. But IMHO some cash (be it UST funds, MM or CDs) and bonds are needed for the very volatile times to buy more equities and tide you thru until the better times. Prudent CG harvesting is smart along the way. I have convinced myself if you want to be a bond fund holder they need to be bought cheap. It's hard to do it on yield alone. That means a serious approach to building a holding long term and money plowed back in during bad bond times. Nothing wrong holding MS and muni funds along with UST term too.
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Post by anitya on May 31, 2021 17:47:23 GMT
Too much emphasis on volatility and/ or tax inefficiency (or desiring too much of the opposite) have been two of my biggest money losing endeavors. Check how much of your decision making is influenced by these two.
More specifically, currently, credit spreads are too tight throughout the credit spectrum. E.g., Average CCC are yielding less than their average default rate. VUSFX / VUSB are good choices from a risk / reward POV.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 31, 2021 19:48:05 GMT
Decided to sell the remaining bonds in my IRA; I want to use this valuable space for all equity. Fortunately I am up around $600 with TSIIX even though I bought somewhat precariously at the top in Feb. I continue to be of the opinion that bond yields are ridiculously low and bond holders are not being paid for the risk they are carrying. There is moreover so much opportunity in other assets, I frankly think "Yugo racing" is just a waste of time. I will stick to mostly ST/UST for ballast only. I remain wary of MS: I don't believe in free lunches especially where bonds are concerned. I think the smartest thing I can do is stick to cheap ST stuff like VUSFX and focus on where the real money is made. Will post my final trades on Tuesday. Ahhhhh...why not: +1R48 |
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Post by acksurf on May 31, 2021 21:28:52 GMT
Decided to sell the remaining bonds in my IRA; I want to use this valuable space for all equity. Fortunately I am up around $600 with TSIIX even though I bought somewhat precariously at the top in Feb. I continue to be of the opinion that bond yields are ridiculously low and bond holders are not being paid for the risk they are carrying. There is moreover so much opportunity in other assets, I frankly think "Yugo racing" is just a waste of time. I will stick to mostly ST/UST for ballast only. I remain wary of MS: I don't believe in free lunches especially where bonds are concerned. I think the smartest thing I can do is stick to cheap ST stuff like VUSFX and focus on where the real money is made. Will post my final trades on Tuesday. I am kind of doing the same thing. I am letting several allocation funds handle the heavy lifting on the bond side. In taxable, I am mostly munis and the Vanguard Ultra Short Etf and I have a small amount in a bank loan fund. My equity percentage is also drifting up in my retirement accounts. |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 12, 2021 14:08:58 GMT
Decided to sell the remaining bonds in my IRA; I want to use this valuable space for all equity. Fortunately I am up around $600 with TSIIX even though I bought somewhat precariously at the top in Feb. I continue to be of the opinion that bond yields are ridiculously low and bond holders are not being paid for the risk they are carrying. There is moreover so much opportunity in other assets, I frankly think "Yugo racing" is just a waste of time. I will stick to mostly ST/UST for ballast only. I remain wary of MS: I don't believe in free lunches especially where bonds are concerned. I think the smartest thing I can do is stick to cheap ST stuff like VUSFX and focus on where the real money is made. Will post my final trades on Tuesday. Do you only have a TIRA? No Roth? If so no bonds in Roth either? I prefer growth in Roth since it is free. |
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Post by chang on Aug 12, 2021 14:14:11 GMT
My Roth is 100% PRWAX.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 12, 2021 15:24:50 GMT
I have bonds in my Roth IRA as some of my Roth conversions were bonds. I keep my Roth in my bucket 1 and want it somewhat liquid and tapable at any time. But I have almost nothing in my taxable right now because I spent it during first years of retirement.
Why bonds for me?
- Defense for portfolio ... over long term negative correlation with equity so a diversifier.
- Can rally in a crisis.
- Cash or CDs or even S/T bonds have lousy returns and even lousier yield.
- There is a wide global bond opportunity set that smart active managers can tap to get return and yield.
- Adding to equities for yield beyond my AA comfort level is too risky for me.
- If I were to give up on bond OEFs, how can I justify my bond CEFs?
- If I gave up on all bonds all my education on historical performance of stocks and bonds to fine tune my mix for my safety and comfort level would be wasted. My sleep well portfolio for me would be trashed. What would I do? I have no idea. Why put myself through that pain and uncertainty.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 13, 2021 3:45:34 GMT
YTD: VUSFX vs TSIIX BTW, most allocation funds don't handle bonds better. It's easier to accept it, but it's not the realityYTD: VFIAX=19.8% 60%=11.88 65%=12.9 70%=13.9 VWELX has 65% stock and made 13.5%. They made only 0.6% extra VWINX has 38% stock and made 7%. 38% of 19.8 is 7.5%. They are already behind. VBINX has 62% stock and made 10.5%. They are already behind. PRWCX has 70% stock and made 13%. They are already behind. Attachments:
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Post by chang on Aug 13, 2021 3:55:36 GMT
FD, that chart is somewhat misleading. The difference is $200 on a $10K investment. I had TSIIX in my IRA for a short time as an experiment from Jan-March this year. I sold it and added the proceeds to FSMEX. The chart below gives some perspective.  Edit: I did, however, recently make a new foray into the MS/NT arena. I might shift some more VUSFX into that investment, if it proves to be a stable and solid performer. |
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 13, 2021 4:05:01 GMT
Sure, but it's still almost 2% for YTD, these are bonds and we have low interest rates. BTW, on one million it's 20K difference. That can last me several months  FSMEX isn't a bond fund. My bond funds made over 8%. See longer term HY Munis as an example. NVHAX is another example of ST HY muni that made over 7%. |
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bf22
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Post by bf22 on Aug 13, 2021 19:10:53 GMT
YTD: VUSFX vs TSIIX BTW, most allocation funds don't handle bonds better. It's easier to accept it, but it's not the realityYTD: VFIAX=19.8% 60%=11.88 65%=12.9 70%=13.9 VWELX has 65% stock and made 13.5%. They made only 0.6% extra VWINX has 38% stock and made 7%. 38% of 19.8 is 7.5%. They are already behind. VBINX has 62% stock and made 10.5%. They are already behind. PRWCX has 70% stock and made 13%. They are already behind. These are not good comparisons. The idea of an allocation fund is that it adjusts bonds/equities within a specified range, and thus will achieve better results over themid/long run (without much work on the investor side) than if one adjust the allocations themselves (unless you are the one great trader..). VWENX has returned over 11% avg over the last 10 years, VWIAX over 8%.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 13, 2021 21:06:47 GMT
YTD: VUSFX vs TSIIX BTW, most allocation funds don't handle bonds better. It's easier to accept it, but it's not the realityYTD: VFIAX=19.8% 60%=11.88 65%=12.9 70%=13.9 VWELX has 65% stock and made 13.5%. They made only 0.6% extra VWINX has 38% stock and made 7%. 38% of 19.8 is 7.5%. They are already behind. VBINX has 62% stock and made 10.5%. They are already behind. PRWCX has 70% stock and made 13%. They are already behind. These are not good (silly) comparisons. The idea of an allocation fund is that it adjusts bonds/equities within a specified range, and thus will achieve better results over themid/long run (without much work on the investor side) than if one adjust the allocations themselves (unless you are the one great trader..). VWENX has returned over 11% avg over the last 10 years, VWIAX over 8%.
My comment was in regard to many investors who use allocation funds to take care of their bond...as acksurf said "I am letting several allocation funds handle the heavy lifting on the bond side" I have been saying for years that many can do better by using dedicated stocks funds(mostly indexes) + dedicated bond funds (mostly managed). It let you control and find better options in bonds. On the other hand, for many who look for simplicity, allocation can be a great choice for a portion of their portfolio. VWENX is good but my long term recommendation, PRWCX is a lot more impressive. |
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bf22
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Post by bf22 on Aug 14, 2021 5:12:21 GMT
These are not good (silly) comparisons. The idea of an allocation fund is that it adjusts bonds/equities within a specified range, and thus will achieve better results over themid/long run (without much work on the investor side) than if one adjust the allocations themselves (unless you are the one great trader..). VWENX has returned over 11% avg over the last 10 years, VWIAX over 8%.
My comment was in regard to many investors who use allocation funds to take care of their bond...as acksurf said "I am letting several allocation funds handle the heavy lifting on the bond side" I have been saying for years that many can do better by using dedicated stocks funds(mostly indexes) + dedicated bond funds (mostly managed). It let you control and find better options in bonds. On the other hand, for many who look for simplicity, allocation can be a great choice for a portion of their portfolio. VWENX is good but my long term recommendation, PRWCX is a lot more impressive. OK, I'll remove the silly.. |
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Post by racqueteer on Aug 14, 2021 10:06:41 GMT
The idea of an allocation fund is that it adjusts bonds/equities within a specified range, and thus will achieve better results over the mid/long run (without much work on the investor side) than if one adjust the allocations themselves (unless you are the one great trader..). VWENX has returned over 11% avg over the last 10 years, VWIAX over 8%.
My comment was in regard to many investors who use allocation funds to take care of their bond...as acksurf said "I am letting several allocation funds handle the heavy lifting on the bond side" I have been saying for years that many can do better by using dedicated stocks funds(mostly indexes) + dedicated bond funds (mostly managed). It let you control and find better options in bonds. On the other hand, for many who look for simplicity, allocation can be a great choice for a portion of their portfolio. One can almost ALWAYS find something better; it's simply a question of what constitutes 'better', and how much involvement one wishes to have. It is equally true that: Many can do better using STOCKS rather than FUNDS. Or: Many can do better using STOCKS rather than BONDS. Not everyone has the primary goal of maximizing profit. Some want a "hands free" portfolio. Some want a low risk portfolio. Some want to squeeze out every drop of profit. An allocation fund, ideally, is one which keeps you out of trouble, performs reasonably, has a reasonable level of volatility, and is easy/easier to hold in bad times. It also allows the active investor to "scale up" their equity level to take advantage of opportunities. Many roads to Dublin... |
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Post by Norbert on Aug 14, 2021 11:27:41 GMT
These are not good (silly) comparisons. The idea of an allocation fund is that it adjusts bonds/equities within a specified range, and thus will achieve better results over themid/long run (without much work on the investor side) than if one adjust the allocations themselves (unless you are the one great trader..). VWENX has returned over 11% avg over the last 10 years, VWIAX over 8%.
My comment was in regard to many investors who use allocation funds to take care of their bond...as acksurf said "I am letting several allocation funds handle the heavy lifting on the bond side" I have been saying for years that many can do better by using dedicated stocks funds(mostly indexes) + dedicated bond funds (mostly managed). It let you control and find better options in bonds. On the other hand, for many who look for simplicity, allocation can be a great choice for a portion of their portfolio. VWENX is good but my long term recommendation, PRWCX is a lot more impressive.
"I have been saying for years ..." Very true. I can definitely agree with this part of your post.
It's insightful that you think an investor can do better using dedicated stock & bond funds. I guess all we need to do is pick the right funds. Although you mostly rely on hindsight to pick the right funds, you do it very well.
And if you're wrong about the fund (e.g. IOFIX), just say that you're a trader. No problem. It's all good.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 14, 2021 12:46:57 GMT
My comment was in regard to many investors who use allocation funds to take care of their bond...as acksurf said "I am letting several allocation funds handle the heavy lifting on the bond side" I have been saying for years that many can do better by using dedicated stocks funds(mostly indexes) + dedicated bond funds (mostly managed). It let you control and find better options in bonds. On the other hand, for many who look for simplicity, allocation can be a great choice for a portion of their portfolio. One can almost ALWAYS find something better; it's simply a question of what constitutes 'better', and how much involvement one wishes to have. It is equally true that: Many can do better using STOCKS rather than FUNDS. Or: Many can do better using STOCKS rather than BONDS. Not everyone has the primary goal of maximizing profit. Some want a "hands free" portfolio. Some want a low risk portfolio. Some want to squeeze out every drop of profit. An allocation fund, ideally, is one which keeps you out of trouble, performs reasonably, has a reasonable level of volatility, and is easy/easier to hold in bad times. It also allows the active investor to "scale up" their equity level to take advantage of opportunities. Many roads to Dublin... Absolutely. Bogle 3 indexes worked well too. Other advantages for selecting separate bond and stock funds: 1) I can invest at exactly the % I want. 2) There are a lot more options using managed bond funds. Suppose I want to own 40% in Munis, it's a lot easier. There are not many allocation funds in both and I don't think many offer HY Muni 3) As a retiree: if I need to sell something for expenses, I have more control. In good times I sell some stocks and in bad times I sell bonds. That also keeps my AA. 4) There are times that opportunities are much easier to see. Examples: 1) the market was down 20-30% = easy rebalance 2) YTD: using HY Munis instead of high-rated bonds. BTW, accumulators have it easier since they have a high % in stocks. It gets more complicated in retirement. ========== As expected, Norbie is in the house. Our "great" trader, see( link) |
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bf22
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Post by bf22 on Aug 14, 2021 20:20:04 GMT
One can almost ALWAYS find something better; it's simply a question of what constitutes 'better', and how much involvement one wishes to have. It is equally true that: Many can do better using STOCKS rather than FUNDS. Or: Many can do better using STOCKS rather than BONDS. Not everyone has the primary goal of maximizing profit. Some want a "hands free" portfolio. Some want a low risk portfolio. Some want to squeeze out every drop of profit. An allocation fund, ideally, is one which keeps you out of trouble, performs reasonably, has a reasonable level of volatility, and is easy/easier to hold in bad times. It also allows the active investor to "scale up" their equity level to take advantage of opportunities. Many roads to Dublin... Absolutely. Bogle 3 indexes worked well too. Other advantages for selecting separate bond and stock funds: 1) I can invest at exactly the % I want. 2) There are a lot more options using managed bond funds. Suppose I want to own 40% in Munis, it's a lot easier. There are not many allocation funds in both and I don't think many offer HY Muni 3) As a retiree: if I need to sell something for expenses, I have more control. In good times I sell some stocks and in bad times I sell bonds. That also keeps my AA. 4) There are times that opportunities are much easier to see. Examples: 1) the market was down 20-30% = easy rebalance 2) YTD: using HY Munis instead of high-rated bonds. BTW, accumulators have it easier since they have a high % in stocks. It gets more complicated in retirement. ========== As expected, Norbie is in the house. Our "great" trader, see( link) If I get this right, if you pick the right funds at the correct time, you'll improve your performance.
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Post by Norbert on Aug 15, 2021 9:35:58 GMT
FD1000 , "As expected, Norbie is in the house. Our "great" trader, see(link)" THANK YOU. Yes, my recent trades (coming out of the 2020 Covid crash and then my early 2021 profit taking) were well timed. They paid for my entire Crete house renovation plus a new car. I think I must be a trading genius.
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Post by paulr888 on Aug 15, 2021 11:25:53 GMT
FD1000 , "As expected, Norbie is in the house. Our "great" trader, see(link)" THANK YOU. Yes, my recent trades (coming out of the 2020 Covid crash and then my early 2021 profit taking) were well timed. They paid for my entire Crete house renovation plus a new car. I think I must be a trading genius. Norbert ... I didn't realize FD's feelings for you. From my google of Urban Dictionary, I found: norbie Something that's extra extra extra cute and has knowledge of everything. A SUPERGENIUS, basically. norbie sexiest man alive, well hung, has a great body, and unbelievable eyes. |
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