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Post by johntaylor on Jun 28, 2021 15:10:45 GMT
My only specific health sci holding is now up 9 percent YTD
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Post by chang on Jun 28, 2021 22:28:47 GMT
My only specific health sci holding is now up 9 percent YTD Mine shown below. Can't really complain in absolute terms, but remain of the belief that HC needs to revert to outperformance vs the S&P. Keeping everything firmly in place. (Note XBI is very volatile!) Fund YTD 1-YRFSPHX 9.72% 25.66%
FSMEX 14.12% 45.46%
XBI -2.05% 25.12%
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Post by jongaltiii on Jun 28, 2021 23:05:47 GMT
chang - exactly right. “HC needs to revert to outperformance vs the S&P.”… I save a smaller portion of funds each year to explore. I used sector funds to do that. I’ve used real estate, defense, telecommunications and healthcare depending on where I’m most convicted for the coming 2 years. Earlier this year, I remained convinced that HC would outperform but I wasn’t happy with FSPHX performance when compared against FSMEX. I traded all of my FSPHX into FSMEX. Am I happy with the improvement in return? Yes. BUT…. BUT…. As Chang says… If my sector funds aren’t outperforming the S&P…why am I wasting my time?
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Post by jongaltiii on Jun 29, 2021 2:12:21 GMT
I agree with you. That’s why I mentioned 2 years. I like to give it at least two years to best S&P. My sector funds is my play area. I choose 1 or two and hope my analysis is correct. I’ve made some bad moves in and out of the defense sector over the years. Meaning - defense sector as I was guessing which politics would mean what to the sector. I hit on telecommunications and had hits and misses on semiconductors. All good for learning and improving.
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2021 3:37:29 GMT
Anybody check out Pfizer? My mom owns this in her portfolio. On fire since March. See the chart. I'm not looking to buy/add to individual stocks, but wondering if it's time to inject some $$ into FSPHX? |
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 6:01:05 GMT
Anybody check out Pfizer? My mom owns this in her portfolio. On fire since March. See the chart. I'm not looking to buy/add to individual stocks, but wondering if it's time to inject some $$ into FSPHX? I own PFE and calls on it. In the last few months when HC was lagging, I got into PFE because I already own HC funds and I did not want to outsource. I am not sure how much more it can go. M* says 2 star stock and currently 10% above its FV but its current yield is 3.59%. FSPHX is 4 star for 3 and 5 yrs. It may work for you because you already own FBIOX. I am not increasing HC allocation now. |
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2021 6:30:08 GMT
Thanks. I don't own FBIOX, but I do own FSMEX and XBI.
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 7:19:05 GMT
Thanks. I don't own FBIOX, but I do own FSMEX and XBI. Sorry, I mis-remembered your XBI as FBIOX. I am thinking of flipping my FSPHX into FSMEX, which I already own and has a good run up recently. This will reduce HC exposure and reduce 1 fund count. Over the past 5 years, FSPHX did not do much better than SPY (less volatile) and also lagged FSMEX. I thought FSMEX is a good compromise and tilt HC towards high tech. One has to like its low-no div paying constituents with P/E 50% higher though. It will likely lag when tech lags but at least not likely to be in the HC regulatory cross hairs as much. Any thoughts? I am always itching to get HC down to market weight but can never seem to find a good time to do it. A part of me wants to just move FSPHX to PRWAX or other growth fund. |
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2021 7:41:32 GMT
A part of me wants to just move FSPHX to PRWAX or other growth fund. Wish I could provide some valuable thoughts, but none occur to me. I'm doing what usually turns out to be the best course of action for me: nothing. By the way, PRWAX is doing nicely: I bought it in my Roth (actually it's 100% of my Roth) last year, and no regrets. I'd buy more, but that would mean opening up a new position in another account. I have a slightly smaller amount of VWUAX in a T-IRA, which also does the job. It's a more aggresive fund; I think of it as a "leveraged" version of the typical LCG fund. Incidentally, for HC-heavy funds there are always the Primecaps: they have been overweight HC and biotechs for a while. I owned VPMAX in my 401k for some years, but let it go when I did a rollover. But I do own VHCAX and still buy $50k/year, the maximum [in two accounts]. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 16:11:13 GMT
A part of me wants to just move FSPHX to PRWAX or other growth fund. Wish I could provide some valuable thoughts, but none occur to me. I'm doing what usually turns out to be the best course of action for me: nothing. By the way, PRWAX is doing nicely: I bought it in my Roth (actually it's 100% of my Roth) last year, and no regrets. I'd buy more, but that would mean opening up a new position in another account. I have a slightly smaller amount of VWUAX in a T-IRA, which also does the job. It's a more aggresive fund; I think of it as a "leveraged" version of the typical LCG fund. Incidentally, for HC-heavy funds there are always the Primecaps: they have been overweight HC and biotechs for a while. I owned VPMAX in my 401k for some years, but let it go when I did a rollover. But I do own VHCAX and still buy $50k/year, the maximum [in two accounts]. Thanks. Will check VWUAX. If there is no number of accounts limit for VHCAX (VHCOX) but per account limit, can I transfer one share to outside Vanguard and buy? |
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Post by jongaltiii on Jul 29, 2021 16:37:08 GMT
anitya , I swapped FSPHX for FSMEX at the beginning of the year and couldn’t be happier. FSMEX has been outperforming this year and even slightly better than SPY. The more I analyze the fund, the happier I am that I swapped. FWIW re: PRWAX - nice fund. I just have that covered with FDGRX (closed) which I like better but YTD it’s trailing my FXAIX or SPY.
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 18:07:07 GMT
I have been investing in Fidelity funds only for the past 1.5 yrs and my luck with them has not been very good. I still hold on just to give them some business. FSMEX is only a 1% position - I got into it by rolling off of another Fidelity experiment - FMEDX. chang, closed my PFE calls, even though they do not expire until 1/22. |
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2021 21:39:18 GMT
I believe the answer is no. I think VG effectively hard closes funds with an annual cap (VHCOX, VPMCX) outside of Vanguard. If you own them at another brokerage, you will not be able to add.
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2021 22:45:51 GMT
I believe the answer is no. I think VG effectively hard closes funds with an annual cap (VHCOX, VPMCX) outside of Vanguard. If you own them at another brokerage, you will not be able to add. I do not understand the annual cap in the second sentence in light of the first and third sentences. I have VHCOX at Vanguard but nowhere else and I already used the $25k cap in the Vanguard IRA account. I do not want to buy in taxable account for tax reasons. |
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2021 23:01:59 GMT
I believe the answer is no. I think VG effectively hard closes funds with an annual cap (VHCOX, VPMCX) outside of Vanguard. If you own them at another brokerage, you will not be able to add. I do not understand the annual cap in the second sentence in light of the first and third sentences. I have VHCOX at Vanguard but nowhere else and I already used the $25k cap in the Vanguard IRA account. I do not want to buy in taxable account for tax reasons. You can only add if you hold it at Vanguard. The annual limit is "per account" — that's basically all there is to it. |
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Post by anitya on Aug 3, 2021 20:11:39 GMT
I have been investing in Fidelity funds only for the past 1.5 yrs and my luck with them has not been very good. I still hold on just to give them some business. FSMEX is only a 1% position - I got into it by rolling off of another Fidelity experiment - FMEDX. chang , closed my PFE calls, even though they do not expire until 1/22. PFE price action was muted until the Delta variant showed up - I guess investors are betting that Covid is going to be a persistent problem. My selling out the PFE calls was untimely - they have gone up 20% since July 29 since I sold. Current PFE RSI is 90% - kind of stratospheric. I can never figure out when to sell. |
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 3, 2021 22:56:03 GMT
Long ago… I gave up trying to predict future performance on PFE. Throw GE, SLB and DD into the same category. Swore I’d never own them individually again. Oh and I should throw Dell in there too.
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Post by anitya on Aug 10, 2021 18:20:15 GMT
PFE went up another 5% today. That is about 12% since I exited the calls 10 days ago. I still own the stock which is a very small position in a taxable account which prompted me not to sell. The calls were in an IRA. Too much trading! This reminds me Munger chiding Buffett at this year AGM for too much trading.
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Post by chang on Sept 2, 2021 1:39:14 GMT
Is HTEC a competition for IHI? HTEC tracked FSMEX from inception until about a year ago and then it took off. Anybody off hand knows what changed HTEC vs FSMEX about a year ago? Can't comment about HTEC ..... but FSMEX is really outperforming FSPHX over the last six months. Alas, I have more $$ in the latter than the former, since FSMEX is a much narrower sector fund (and included within FSPHX). But there is no denying that FSMEX is killing FSPHX. |
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Post by jongaltiii on Sept 2, 2021 1:45:09 GMT
Is HTEC a competition for IHI? HTEC tracked FSMEX from inception until about a year ago and then it took off. Anybody off hand knows what changed HTEC vs FSMEX about a year ago? Can't comment about HTEC ..... but FSMEX is really outperforming FSPHX over the last six months. Alas, I have more $$ in the latter than the former, since FSMEX is a much narrower sector fund (and included within FSPHX). But there is no denying that FSMEX is killing FSPHX. Was looking at that today. Swapped FSPHX for FSMEX a while back… after comparing the two… I was basking in my brilliance for a brief moment. |
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Post by jongaltiii on Sept 24, 2021 21:27:57 GMT
FSMEX sure has been a winner this year. 28 percent vs 11 percent in FSPHX. I moved all HC from FSPHX to FSMEX and have been very happy. FSMEX sure looks like a long term keeper to me.
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Post by chang on Sept 24, 2021 22:17:56 GMT
Still holding FSPHX, FSMEX and XBI. Anything I do will be the wrong thing, so I am just going to hold, and hold … and hold. (I also own PFE among my very few stocks.)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2021 2:09:22 GMT
I also has FSMEX and PFE and I have POGRX (primecap odyssey growth) which is 31% into HC. Holding onto them.
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 25, 2021 11:34:15 GMT
Still holding FSPHX, FSMEX and XBI. Anything I do will be the wrong thing, so I am just going to hold, and hold … and hold. (I also own PFE among my very few stocks.) What's your feeling about FBIOX in relation to what you have? |
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 25, 2021 12:49:10 GMT
Barron's cover this week is on healthcare sector.
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Post by chang on Sept 25, 2021 19:03:55 GMT
Still holding FSPHX, FSMEX and XBI. Anything I do will be the wrong thing, so I am just going to hold, and hold … and hold. (I also own PFE among my very few stocks.) What's your feeling about FBIOX in relation to what you have? I suspect FBIOX is more or less the same as XBI, insofar as all sector funds are the same with minor structural variations. Why I chose XBI over FBIOX, but FSMEX over IHI, is a very good question. One day, if I remember, I will let you know. |
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 26, 2021 12:48:57 GMT
What's your feeling about FBIOX in relation to what you have? I suspect FBIOX is more or less the same as XBI, insofar as all sector funds are the same with minor structural variations. Why I chose XBI over FBIOX, but FSMEX over IHI, is a very good question. One day, if I remember, I will let you know. Quite different in Feb versus July on:
FSMEX and IHI are closer, but the former is more volatile:
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 26, 2021 12:58:22 GMT
Biotech XBI is equal-weighted. FBIOX is an active biotech sector fund.
FSMEX and IHI are medical-devices funds.
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Post by chang on Sept 26, 2021 13:08:49 GMT
Biotech XBI is equal-weighted. FBIOX is an active biotech sector fund. FSMEX and IHI are medical-devices funds. Correct - perhaps unclear, but I did not intend to equate FBIOX/XBI with FSMEX/IHI. The latter is medical equipment and technology, as you said. The issue I think Raq was getting at was active vs ETF for sector funds, and my point was to try to add some additional confusion to the discussion. I use both sector funds to overweight sectors already represented in FSHPX. So far (since I’ve owned them) that has had a positive result. |
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 26, 2021 13:51:46 GMT
Biotech XBI is equal-weighted. FBIOX is an active biotech sector fund. FSMEX and IHI are medical-devices funds. Thanks, yogi, as always. Certainly clarifies the variations in the first two. XBI hitting it out of the park in early February, clearly, but fading thereafter; with FBIOX less volatile (and ahead now). Vaccine-related?
The latter two basically the same, but with FSMEX apparently choosing more effectively at times. I'd be interested in the source of the observed difference, but am, frankly, too lazy to look!
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