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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 6, 2024 16:56:28 GMT
@django , I am using USFR (fewer holdings) that is similar to TFLO. Both hold Treasury FRNs whose rates reset weekly based on T-Bill auctions.
M-mkt funds are also comparable to T-Bills. They lagged as the fed fund rates went up (so, T-Bills moved faster), and should lag when the rates head down.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2024 17:43:21 GMT
@django , I am using USFR (fewer holdings) that is similar to TFLO. Both hold Treasury FRNs whose rates reset weekly based on T-Bill auctions. M-mkt funds are also comparable to T-Bills. They lagged as the fed fund rates went up (so, T-Bills moved faster), and should lag when the rates head down. Vanguard M-mrt are comparable to T-Bills; Fidelity M-rt, not so much. I've been transitioning to TFLO at Fidelity. |
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Post by chang on Feb 6, 2024 17:53:58 GMT
yogibearbull That's true, FMPXX is yielding 5.31%. If rates just hover, you are right it probably makes more sense to use this MM than to roll over T-bills. VMFXX/VMRXX yielding 5.27/ 5.28%. FMPXX however requires $1m to buy in. Edit: T-bill yields: 3M 5.34%, 6M 5.21%, 9M 4.98%, 1Y 4.83%, 2Y 4.38%, 3Y 4.16%, 5Y 4.04%. Yield curve still badly inverted. Why go long? fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding#tbcurrent-yields|median-yield
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Post by fishingrod on Feb 6, 2024 20:12:57 GMT
chang , VUSXX is state tax free I believe, like the T-bills. Unlike VMFXX, if that makes a difference, I can't remember. Time to go long is passed also, I think. It was a very short run-up, and a fairly quick buy in. Better to stay short and advantageously when the mid-bond market is wildly mis-priced and SEC yields are much higher again, start building the intermediate bond fund allocation%, perhaps. Kinda like pyramid up, but backwards.
I find every once in a while checking the relationship between price and yield, helps me to make assessments.
Sometimes the simplest of tools are best.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 7, 2024 14:49:20 GMT
The nice thing about these funds is the fact you can select the risk/reward and probably the performance. schrts.co/KzJvEINCAll the managed funds have a good history. Then, if you have enough, you may say, well, CBLDX, RSIIX can make me 7-9% in 2024 and equities are expensive, why not invest more in them. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 7, 2024 15:49:28 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 14, 2024 14:59:31 GMT
Bonds? Nothing changed since early 2023. 1) I have been posting about RPHIX=best "sub" cash + CBLDX and RSIIX/RSIVX for months since 2022. These are not a "trade" it's already over a year. You can call a trade for anything shorter than 5 years. 2) TFLO = treasuries floating rate looks pretty good lately. 3) I posted to stay away from treasuries close to 2 years and several times this year. 4) I would not use PIMIX either because RSIIX may make 7-8% very smoothly in 2024 = The bird in the hand...and RSIIX pay higher distributions too. First Chart of PIMIX,VGIT,RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX shows that YTD...RPHIX=0.7...CBLDX=0.95...RSIIX=1.2...VGIT=-1.8...PIMIX=-0.7%. Basically, VGIT holder are already 3% behind RSIIX, and PIMIX is close to 2% behind. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 23, 2024 13:54:07 GMT
Another option lately if you don't want to buy bond OEFs and instead buy and ETF. See 3 months chart of RPHIX,VMFXX,CBLDX,RSIVX,JAAA ( schrts.co/uRsKxBdj) seekingalpha.com/article/4672301-jaaa-remains-a-strong-income-fund-even-as-rate-cuts-loom?mailingid=34432946&messageid=2850&serial=34432946.1961Summary
* JAAA focuses on AAA-rated CLO tranches.
* It offers investors a good 6.2% yield and has outperformed bond peers since inception at very low risk.
* Yields should drop as the Fed cuts rates, but these seem likely to remain competitive.
In my opinion, JAAA's fundamentals remain reasonably strong, although the fund is likely to see lower dividends in the coming years. JAAA's competitive 6.2% yield and safe, stable holdings make the fund a buy.
Credit risk is extremely low, as these investments are senior to other tranches / investors. As per S&P, not a single AAA-rated CLO has ever defaulted, and the product has existed for several.
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Post by flipperxxx on Feb 23, 2024 16:49:48 GMT
Another option lately if you don't want to buy bond OEFs and instead buy and ETF. See 3 months chart of RPHIX,VMFXX,CBLDX,RSIVX,JAAA ( schrts.co/uRsKxBdj) seekingalpha.com/article/4672301-jaaa-remains-a-strong-income-fund-even-as-rate-cuts-loom?mailingid=34432946&messageid=2850&serial=34432946.1961Summary
* JAAA focuses on AAA-rated CLO tranches.
* It offers investors a good 6.2% yield and has outperformed bond peers since inception at very low risk.
* Yields should drop as the Fed cuts rates, but these seem likely to remain competitive.
In my opinion, JAAA's fundamentals remain reasonably strong, although the fund is likely to see lower dividends in the coming years. JAAA's competitive 6.2% yield and safe, stable holdings make the fund a buy.
Credit risk is extremely low, as these investments are senior to other tranches / investors. As per S&P, not a single AAA-rated CLO has ever defaulted, and the product has existed for several.
i've held JAAA, just a bit to get a feel for it, and so far, no complaints. |
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 1, 2024 21:12:04 GMT
Bonds? Nothing changed since early 2023. 1) I have been posting about RPHIX=best "sub" cash + CBLDX and RSIIX/RSIVX for months since 2022. These are not a "trade" it's already over a year. You can call a trade for anything shorter than 5 years. 2) TFLO = treasuries floating rate looks pretty good lately. 3) I posted to stay away from treasuries close to 2 years and several times this year. 4) I would not use PIMIX either because RSIIX may make 7-8% very smoothly in 2024 = The bird in the hand...and RSIIX pay higher distributions too. First Chart of PIMIX,VGIT,RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX shows that YTD...RPHIX=0.7...CBLDX=0.95...RSIIX=1.2...VGIT=-1.8...PIMIX=-0.7%. Basically, VGIT holder are already 3% behind RSIIX, and PIMIX is close to 2% behind. So far so good. YTD...VGIT -1.4...RSIIX +2% = 3.4% difference which is a huge difference in bond land. PIMIX at 0.1%. Attachments:
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Post by chang on Apr 25, 2024 7:34:53 GMT
My second T-bill matured last week at Vanguard. Given my unsuccessful (read "too early") experience with FTBFX/FBNDX, I am just leaving it in the VG core account ("settlement fund") VMFXX, which is yielding 5.27%.
VMRXX is yielding 5.28%, but the 0.01% difference isn't worth transferring it from core to a separate position.
RPHIX yield is probably a bit higher, and I do consider this as a "cash sub", but I want to keep the cash at VG. I also have FMPXX at Fido currently yielding 5.26%.
Anybody think I'm silly to just let cash stew in a money market, speak up ... I won't bite.
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Post by acksurf on Apr 25, 2024 12:34:02 GMT
My second T-bill matured last week at Vanguard. Given my unsuccessful (read "too early") experience with FTBFX/FBNDX, I am just leaving it in the VG core account ("settlement fund") VMFXX, which is yielding 5.27%. VMRXX is yielding 5.28%, but the 0.01% difference isn't worth transferring it from core to a separate position. RPHIX yield is probably a bit higher, and I do consider this as a "cash sub", but I want to keep the cash at VG. I also have FMPXX at Fido currently yielding 5.26%. Anybody think I'm silly to just let cash stew in a money market, speak up ... I won't bite. Do you have to maintain $1MM with Fido fund? I am in FZDXX (5.14%), RPHIX, RSIIX with the CDs and Treasuries that have matured over the last few months. Just one CD left. I trickle some money into core funds such as JQUA with the monthly income. Something to consider? |
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Post by chang on Apr 25, 2024 12:48:48 GMT
My second T-bill matured last week at Vanguard. Given my unsuccessful (read "too early") experience with FTBFX/FBNDX, I am just leaving it in the VG core account ("settlement fund") VMFXX, which is yielding 5.27%. VMRXX is yielding 5.28%, but the 0.01% difference isn't worth transferring it from core to a separate position. RPHIX yield is probably a bit higher, and I do consider this as a "cash sub", but I want to keep the cash at VG. I also have FMPXX at Fido currently yielding 5.26%. Anybody think I'm silly to just let cash stew in a money market, speak up ... I won't bite. Do you have to maintain $1MM with Fido fund? I am in FZDXX (5.14%), RPHIX, RSIIX with the CDs and Treasuries that have matured over the last few months. Just one CD left. I trickle some money into core funds such as JQUA with the monthly income. Something to consider? You have to invest $1m to open a position, but you don't need to maintain a >$1m balance. |
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Post by Birdman96 on Apr 26, 2024 2:47:41 GMT
Anybody think I'm silly to just let cash stew in a money market, speak up ... I won't bite. VG mmkt - easy money, what’s not to like? |
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Post by richardsok on Apr 28, 2024 21:56:03 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Apr 30, 2024 13:25:49 GMT
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Post by anitya on Apr 30, 2024 15:41:02 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Apr 30, 2024 18:11:00 GMT
OK. I excerpted the article for key takeaway points: Only a few things in investing life are certain. One is that investors will always find a way to lose ungodly amounts of money on bond funds.
It’s impossible to say for sure why so many people barged into long-term bond funds last year. Some, says Steve Laipply, global co-head of fixed-income ETFs at BlackRock, may just have been thinking, “Finally, I can get a yield in bonds that I haven’t been able to get in years and years.”
…......a one-time, one-percentage-point rise in interest rates would knock about 15% or 16% off the funds’ value. You’d incur an immediate $1,500 to $1,600 loss on a $10,000 investment—although, over time, the rise in rates would increase the income on the fund’s bonds, enabling you to recoup some of that loss.
Repeat after me: No one—not even the Fed!—can reliably forecast interest rates or the Fed’s actions. ….. You’re kidding yourself if you think you can consistently make money by betting on what interest rates are going to do.
Historically, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more interest income it pays; that higher yield has compensated investors for the risk of locking up their money for longer.
This week, though, three-month Treasury bills yielded just under 5.4%, about 0.7 percentage points more than 30-year Treasurys. And intermediate Treasurys maturing in five and 10 years were yielding about 4.6% ….The upshot is that you can earn more on short-term than on long-term Treasurys.
So if you don’t own a long-term bond fund, don’t buy one.
If you do own one, brace yourself. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF lost 14% in the first 10 months of 2023. Then, in the final two months of last year, it gained 16.9%.
“There’s going to be volatility....”
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Post by gman57 on Apr 30, 2024 18:31:58 GMT
OK. I excerpted the article for key takeaway points:
Repeat after me: No one—not even the Fed!—can reliably forecast interest rates or the Fed’s actions. ….. You’re kidding yourself if you think you can consistently make money by betting on what interest rates are going to do.
Yes, yes and yes.... AND never tell someone what to do re: bonds. My friend/neighbor had a lot of long term bonds several years ago. I thought he was crazy and told him I wouldn't buy them with a ten foot pole.... he got rid of them. Interest rates almost immediately started a long downward slope. He now asks me what I'm doing so he can do the opposite    |
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Post by fishingrod on Apr 30, 2024 21:15:16 GMT
I also agree with gman57. I will not touch long bonds unless I buy individually, like munis, and only if an undeniable deal shows itself. But, Bonds can get stretched in waves but only so far and then the value hunters come out. chang, You had mentioned a while back about a couple metrics to look at for clues to possibly entering the bond market. I can't remember what it was. Can you recall? Something about the curve still being inverted, one crossing another, possibly? I really can't recall, but I am interested. |
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Post by chang on May 1, 2024 6:19:42 GMT
fishingrod - I believe I said several times that I’m staying short while the yield curve is inverted. Up until my recent mistake with FTBFX/FBNDX, I was pretty much staying on the top of the yield curve at 6-9 months. (Also using RPHIX which continues to deliver.) I gambled on I/T expecting rates to drop this year - my bad. I’m still holding FTBFX - luckily not a large % of my FI (but not a drop in the bucket either). Also holding some PIIMIX, which has actually done alright. But my second T-Bill that natured is sitting in VMRXX. And next month the third and largest T-bill matures at Fido, and I’ll either keep it in FMPXX or RPHIX, or consider another rollover. I definitely have no idea or suggestion about when/how to ENTER the bond market. That’s way over my pay grade. I get that wrong EVERY time.
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Post by fishingrod on May 1, 2024 10:37:55 GMT
fishingrod - I believe I said several times that I’m staying short while the yield curve is inverted. Up until my recent mistake with FTBFX/FBNDX, I was pretty much staying on the top of the yield curve at 6-9 months. (Also using RPHIX which continues to deliver.) I gambled on I/T expecting rates to drop this year - my bad. I’m still holding FTBFX - luckily not a large % of my FI (but not a drop in the bucket either). Also holding some PIIMIX, which has actually done alright. But my second T-Bill that natured is sitting in VMRXX. And next month the third and largest T-bill matures at Fido, and I’ll either keep it in FMPXX or RPHIX, or consider another rollover. I definitely have no idea or suggestion about when/how to ENTER the bond market. That’s way over my pay grade. I get that wrong EVERY time.
I know you are staying short. I had just remembered that you had posted a graph of a couple of data points and Norbert had even commented that it was an astute observation. Anyway, no big deal. |
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Post by chang on May 3, 2024 5:26:38 GMT
Last and biggest T-bill matured yesterday at Fido. I see that FMPXX is yielding 5.27% while the 3M is yielding 5.36%. That’s a big enough difference that I think I’ll roll it over.
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Post by chang on May 3, 2024 5:44:21 GMT
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Post by richardsok on May 3, 2024 21:43:36 GMT
A quick note:
Bill Gross is out with a new letter predicting "higher for longer" bond yields ahead. Issuance of Treasurys continues surging, driving one-to-two trillion in new debt annually to keep economy growing. Corporate debt has been growing somewhat more slowly.
"Look for 5%+ 10-year yields over the next 12 months...." (If so, such rates MUST be bearish for stocks, IMO.)
He added, though rates will climb, they are still far below what they were when he made his bond investment chops. There is much less opportunity for bond traders to profit from price movements. "Total Return is dead. Don't let them sell you a bond fund."
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Post by anitya on May 4, 2024 0:50:44 GMT
A quick note: Bill Gross is out with a new letter predicting "higher for longer" bond yields ahead. Issuance of Treasurys continues surging, driving one-to-two trillion in new debt annually to keep economy growing. Corporate debt has been growing somewhat more slowly. "Look for 5%+ 10-year yields over the next 12 months...." (If so, such rates MUST be bearish for stocks, IMO.) He added, though rates will climb, they are still far below what they were when he made his bond investment chops. There is much less opportunity for bond traders to profit from price movements. "Total Return is dead. Don't let them sell you a bond fund." Thanks for the alert and cliffs notes. Do you have a weblink to the article? |
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Post by FD1000 on May 10, 2024 12:38:06 GMT
Welcome to the Santa Claus correction. Yes it is odd, mostly. My AKREX, CBLDX, RSIIX and OSTIX counter the trend often, as they did yesterday. Short duration and HY are doing well still. Interest rates are still the problem. The 10-year cannot settle on a direction and most likely won't until the threat of increases are done or the first cut is made. +1 and The above funds also do not have high correlation to rates. VGIT is down already 0.7% and DODIX over 1% YTD. chart ( schrts.co/pekMicwd) The above is what I said on Jan 17 and in several other places. Rates, and inflation are difficult to predict. Instead of investing based on rate cuts and using VGIT or high-rated bonds that correlate to rates use one of the following funds according to what you want/need/risk/goal...RPHIX as a "sub" cash...CBLDX, RSIIX to make 7-9% in 2024 with very low SD. Why low SD? Because it's more predictable and I don't want my bond funds to go up 1-3% short term. MM is another easy choice, Schwab SNAAX pay 5.31%, VG=VMFXX pays 5.26%. YTD: VMFXX=1.8%...RPHIX=2.1...CBLDX=3.1%...RSIVX/RSIIX=3.3%... VGIT=-1.5%...see ( schrts.co/rdvHNGmh) VGIT is "only" 4.8% behind RSIVX YTD with a down volatility of 3%. Attachments:
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