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Post by FD1000 on Nov 8, 2023 4:29:19 GMT
A trader doesn't care about the definitions, she cares how to take advantage of all markets and make money in most cases. If you are not a trader then you shouldn't care either.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 8, 2023 5:04:56 GMT
It will be interesting to see how the poll numbers changed everyday the poll is open. May be Norbert is able to share that info when he reveals the poll results at the end. Since there is discussion beyond the poll itself, I would like to know posters' opinion about the lackluster follow through for small and mid caps and for Value, while interest rates have not changed that much (except volatility) since the poll began. You should be able to see the current poll results after you vote. Is that not the case?
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Post by Norbert on Nov 8, 2023 5:20:02 GMT
I'm not personally liking any of those answers, Norbert. My personal feeling is that the market thinks we're done with rates and maybe we'll get a cut shortly. I feel like we're probably ok through eoy at least; maybe summer, but rate cuts would be summer at best. I think we have an investable bounce to work with; no prediction beyond that. Not sure what choice that is though; four? I'd say that an "investible bounce" would be (2) or (3), depending on how strong you think the bounce is. We probably should subscribe to chang's newsletter to know what happens after that.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 8, 2023 5:43:55 GMT
A trader doesn't care about the definitions, she cares how to take advantage of all markets and make money in most cases. If you are not a trader then you shouldn't care either. How do you define "trader"? Don't answer that. And why is the trader a "she"? Are women better traders? I'm thinking of transitioning to being a woman, like Lia Thomas in swimming, if it will make me rich.
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Post by keppelbay on Nov 8, 2023 8:04:00 GMT
I'm a bit late to this but the SPY chart looks like maybe topping out near the downtrend line. So while Sylvester may not be dead, he may having a Wiley Coyote moment...
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 8, 2023 10:33:07 GMT
I'm not personally liking any of those answers, Norbert. My personal feeling is that the market thinks we're done with rates and maybe we'll get a cut shortly. I feel like we're probably ok through eoy at least; maybe summer, but rate cuts would be summer at best. I think we have an investable bounce to work with; no prediction beyond that. Not sure what choice that is though; four? I'd say that an "investible bounce" would be (2) or (3), depending on how strong you think the bounce is. We probably should subscribe to chang 's newsletter to know what happens after that. You're probably right about that last... The problem I have with (2) or (3) is that each specifies the FED making a rate change; either up or down, and I'm not persuaded that either is called for over the short haul. A cut if we want it to continue to run throughout next year, perhaps, but we're running on the hope that things are going to get 'better sometime soon'. Pretty nonspecific, that, and certainly open to any number of factors; many beyond anyone's control. All we can do is to adjust as needed (or stay the course; depending one one's philosophy).
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 8, 2023 10:38:37 GMT
I'm a bit late to this but the SPY chart looks like maybe topping out near the downtrend line. So while Sylvester may not be dead, he may having a Wiley Coyote moment... SPY/VOO, yes; QQQ definitely not. It's the Q's which are driving things!
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 9, 2023 3:19:23 GMT
I'll throw in a couple more points:
--A recession is defined as two down quarters in a row of GDP. For this to be confirmed at least several months must pass from the first down quarter. The stock market does not ring a bell to begin. If you wait to that confirmation date to buy, you will be last in the parade.
--Stocks often do quite well on the upside, starting within the actual recession time period.
--AFAIK the two down quarters is measured in nominal dollars of product sales. So if we have 5% inflation in a year, and the GDP grows 3%, the actual sales of "products etc" has declined...recession-like. Downward business activity.
Bottom line: You may be spot-on in predicting a recession, yet spot-off in concluding it will be bad for the stock market.
R48
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Post by Norbert on Nov 10, 2023 6:40:25 GMT
I'll throw in a couple more points: --A recession is defined as two down quarters in a row of GDP. For this to be confirmed at least several months must pass from the first down quarter. The stock market does not ring a bell to begin. If you wait to that confirmation date to buy, you will be last in the parade. --Stocks often do quite well on the upside, starting within the actual recession time period. --AFAIK the two down quarters is measured in nominal dollars of product sales. So if we have 5% inflation in a year, and the GDP grows 3%, the actual sales of "products etc" has declined...recession-like. Downward business activity. Bottom line: You may be spot-on in predicting a recession, yet spot-off in concluding it will be bad for the stock market. R48 Recessions almost always spell trouble for the stock market, though it's true that the market typically rises before the end of a recession. The market is forward looking. due.com/does-a-recession-cause-a-stock-market-drop/At the moment I can't see the drivers for a new bull market. The stock market loves liquidity and easy money, but we're seeing tightening credit standards. High government debt levels mean higher bond issuance, which could keep yields attractive. Stocks aren't especially cheap and now have to compete with risk-free MM and bond returns. I conclude that we could get a technical rally, but that stocks will have trouble overcoming important resistance lines.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 3, 2023 13:18:29 GMT
Hi guys. With the recent run that the stock market has had, since October 27 from the 4117 mark, for me, I am thinking that it is still a bear market rally, an another leg up, until a new all time high is reached. Currently, the all time high is 4796 and as of Friday's December 1 close of 4595 leaves another 201 points of gain before this is reached. After it is reached and exceeds the 4595 mark then the bear market rally gets closed out and it then becomes a new bull market. Just wondering your prospectives on this? Thanks for stopping by. Cordially, Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 3, 2023 15:10:37 GMT
You are more particular about the point at which we attach the label than I. I am more concerned about the point of entry and/or exit than precise labeling. Currently the S&P 500 on the weekly chart, has clearly broken above the lip line of a cup w handle pattern which projects a 1000-point rise over the next 9 to 10 months. That sounds like a bull market. The DJI weekly chart has broken above recent highs and is challenging all-time highs. The recent strength in the blue chips indicates that participation in this rally is becoming broader and perhaps, higher quality. That also sounds like a bull market. The Nasdaq Composite and the Naz 100 are consolidating their recent gains. Those gains have brought the market to where it is and a breather, especially for high tech, is healthy. Commodities are a mixed bag at this time, with Copper and Gold at bullish, breakout points. The USD is continuing its trend down which is usually supportive of higher stock and commodity prices. Consequently, I think we are in a raging bull market for most stocks that will continue thru the election next yr. A rising tide lifts most boats. Only the ones that have been sunk will be left behind.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 4, 2023 12:07:49 GMT
Hi guys. I have pasted a link below to an article that provides credence to the comments that I have made within this thread that this was a bear market rally. Seems another poster, Karen , presented a different perspective that this was indeed no bear market rally; and, I was most confused. She went to lengths to establish herself including some reference links. Now, I am offering the same. finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-view-p-500-111244915.htmlJust seeking to regain and establish my credibility. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 4, 2023 13:06:37 GMT
Hi guys. I have pasted a link below to an article that provides credence to the comments that I have made within this thread that this was a bear market rally. Seems another poster, Karen , presented a different perspective that this was indeed no bear market rally; and, I was most confused. She went to lengths to establish herself including some reference links. Now, I am offering the same. finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-view-p-500-111244915.htmlJust seeking to regain and establish my credibility. Old_Skeet Your posts are always credible. You don't have to regain a thing.
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Post by Karen on Dec 4, 2023 13:27:34 GMT
Hi guys. I have pasted a link below to an article that provides credence to the comments that I have made within this thread that this was a bear market rally. Seems another poster, Karen , presented a different perspective that this was indeed no bear market rally; and, I was most confused. She went to lengths to establish herself including some reference links. Now, I am offering the same. finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-view-p-500-111244915.htmlJust seeking to regain and establish my credibility. Old_Skeet The question is open to discussion and interpretation, at least to some people. To my husband, referenced below, who has always applied investment definitions literally, it is not. That said, here's a look at the basics (per Fido) and the opposing views (per linked articles). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/bear-vs-bull-market#:~:text=A%20bear%20market%20is%20a,affect%20investor%20confidence%20and%20behavior. Excerpt: Key takeaways
A bear market is a 20% downturn in stock market indexes from recent highs.
A bull market occurs when stock market indexes are rising, eventually hitting new highs.
Historically, bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets.
Bear and bull markets can affect investor confidence and behavior.www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/bear-marketwww.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/bull-market------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Some contend the market must hit new highs to be a new bull market:www.reuters.com/markets/us/bull-market-view-after-sp-500-hits-fresh-year-high-2023-12-04/#:~:text=A%20close%20above%204%2C796.56%20on,from%20its%20October%202022%20low. Excerpt:The S&P 500's feverish late-year rally has brought the index to its highest level of 2023, leaving it just 4.2% away from the all-time peak reached in January 2022.
A close above 4,796.56 on the S&P 500 would confirm that the index has been in a bull market since bottoming out on Oct. 12, 2022, by one commonly used definition. The benchmark index is up 19.7% for the year and has risen 28.5% from its October 2022 low.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Others, including my husband who worked in the business for over three decades, don't:www.cbsnews.com/news/bear-market-ends-s-p-500-enters-bull-market/Excerpt:Americans' investments are out of the grip of one of the longest bear markets in recent history. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% on Thursday, pushing the market 20% higher than the trough stocks hit in October, closing at 4,294. That means Wall Street was finally released from the claws of a bear market — when stocks falls 20% or more from a recent high for a sustained period of time — that began in June 2022.Excerpt:apnews.com/article/bull-stock-market-wall-street-cde5d042da6aa887e7d5ba64b62815ffBY ASSOCIATED PRESS Published 2:32 PM MST, June 8, 2023 The S&P 500 is now in what Wall Street refers to as a bull market, meaning the index has risen 20% or more from its most recent low.
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Post by johntaylor on Dec 4, 2023 14:36:15 GMT
Definitions probably vary, but what they had us to memorize in school was bull 20 percent up in an index or security
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Post by Norbert on Dec 4, 2023 15:20:34 GMT
Am not interested in debating definitions. Why? Because they can lead us astray.
For me, a "bear market rally" is simply a strong move up, which is then followed by a big move down, possibly to lower lows. It can be 10% or a 30% rally; I don't care.
Example: during 2001, the S&P 500 popped from around 950 to 1175 heading towards the year end. It looked like a new bull market, but it wasn't. The S&P 500 crashed hard in 2002, eventually touching 775.
So, I suggest we focus in the big picture. Does this rally lead to sustainable new highs (not necessarily in a straight line)? Or, is it more like the 2001 rally, after which a lower low was tested in 2002 before the true bull market began? 😳
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 4, 2023 16:19:33 GMT
Todays activities notwithstanding, higher highs seem to be the most likely alternative. jmho
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Post by mnfish on Dec 6, 2023 11:54:14 GMT
Good quote from John Chambers (former CSCO CEO) on a recession - " I think we've been six months away from a recession for three-and-a-half years. I think this is the new norm."
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 13, 2023 2:39:02 GMT
The VIX & VXN have reached extreme lows. This is probably not be a time to sell equities, but it is a time to pay close attention to what is going on and any changes that are taking place.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 15, 2023 15:47:16 GMT
This mornings trading indicates that triple witching is bringing VIX & VXN off their lows. Or maybe it was that burst of trading volume on the nasdaq 100 at the open this morning.
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