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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 11, 2023 16:01:49 GMT
fishingrod, thanks. AGG should become positive soon too, if this rebound thesis hold.
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 11, 2023 20:44:02 GMT
Treasuries have the highest correlation to rates, which means you got to predict rates well, and we know that predicting rates is difficult. If I had to own something for months up to now, Bank Loans had a great risk/reward. In that category FAFRX excels. Another choice in another category is RSIIX. The chart below of FAFRX,RSIIX,TLT,BND(US tot bonds) show why FAFRX,RSIIX are so much better, they come with much lower volatility, much better performance, and higher yield. I don't need to wait for these funds to do well, they are doing it for months. FD1000, what do you mean by "I don't need to wait for these funds to do well, they are doing it for months"? Thank you. As a bond OEF trader, I own bond funds based on low volatility and good performance at any current markets. These funds can be specialized. Most investors use core/core+ bond funds categories, so far this year they made very little. There are several funds who met my criteria did pretty well. In my world, a bond fund with 6+% in the first 8 months of the year is a good performance. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Sept 12, 2023 15:41:41 GMT
It is noted in the social-media that with 2023 YTD data, it is the 3rd negative year for Treasuries (IEF, TLT), something that have never happened before. So, the speculation is that 2023 will be a turnaround year for Treasuries. This is supported by the fact that corporates (VCIT), total bond (AGG), muni (MUB) have already turned around (positive YTD and 1-yr/ except AGG, Edit), and FR/BL are doing well (BKLN; recession seems off the table now). All bonds (being spread products) will benefit more when the Treasuries also turnaround. ". .. speculation is that 2023 will be a turnaround year for Treasuries." Did you mean 2024, or end of 2023 or both? TIA...R48 |
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 12, 2023 15:50:51 GMT
retiredat48, I meant 2023 as several spread products have turned up already. Of course, there are other views too - Jamie Dimon of JPM says some credit event is ahead and rates may spike then.
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Post by yakers on Sept 14, 2023 15:25:01 GMT
Do you do long bonds when, well, one does not have long? (maybe for posterity?) (Just to keep an AA?)
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Post by anitya on Sept 29, 2023 21:21:42 GMT
Vanguard does not offer new issue Agencies. Fidelity inventory does not have all the new issue Agencies. Schwab has the most new issue Agencies.
I know Fidelity does not charge any fees for new issues. Check Schwab for their fees schedule.
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 29, 2023 23:18:18 GMT
The chart below shows how much LT treasuries and Munis TLT,EDV,NHMAX lost since the start of this thread. schrts.co/AfwYFwyY |
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Post by fishingrod on Oct 9, 2023 20:46:54 GMT
I believe that this new war will be an inflection point in the bond market. I think that we have seen the highs on mid/long term bonds. I thought earlier last week that we had seen a turn in the bond market, but I feel even more confident now.
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