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Post by anitya on Aug 2, 2023 22:51:14 GMT
Aug-Sept are seasonally low performing months for risk assets. These months may provide opportunities to add risk. I thought we could share potential buys here.
I have INTC and DIS in my wish list. I know, you must be thinking, Be careful what you wish for.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 3, 2023 1:18:01 GMT
I am thinking of short sales, but only thinking.
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Post by anitya on Aug 3, 2023 2:08:21 GMT
I am thinking of short sales, but only thinking. Thanks for cluing me in. As always, look forward to your trades. I have learned that I do not have the stomach for shorting, even indices, and admire those who run long-short strategies. I have to know for sure the back of the dip buyers is broken before even thinking about shorting. Just an FYI - I was half heartedly thinking about buying HOOD (Robinhood) sometime in the future. They released their June 30 Q earnings today. They turned profitable for the first time. Monthly active users fell to a new low (10.8M users) since the co went public in 2021 (20.3M users) ; it was a stair step decline in active users ever since (except a slight up tick in Q1 2023). How badly were these guys mismanaging the company when they had twice as many customers to be losing their shirt. |
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Post by anitya on Aug 3, 2023 19:16:31 GMT
Last year I was thinking I would buy MRNA if it dropped down to $105. They just released their Q2 2023 earnings. Reported by Yahoo - "Moderna MRNA reported a loss of $3.62 per share for the second quarter of 2023, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.84. In the year-ago quarter, the company registered earnings of $5.24 per share. The year-over-year decline in the bottom line was due to lower revenues and higher operating expenses incurred during the quarter. Revenues in the quarter were $344 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $290.7 million. Total revenues declined 93% year over year due to lower COVID-19 vaccine sales during the quarter." www.investors.com/news/technology/pfizer-stock-why-covid-boosters-likely-will-not-be-its-saving-grace/?src=A00220 |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 3, 2023 21:32:29 GMT
I am thinking of short sales, but only thinking. Didn't you just go long on TQQQ? |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 3, 2023 21:57:50 GMT
I am thinking of short sales, but only thinking. Didn't you just go long on TQQQ? Yes, I changed my mind again. |
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Post by anitya on Aug 4, 2023 20:06:29 GMT
Just bumping up.
How about selling tech and buying energy?
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 5, 2023 1:10:19 GMT
I own both. Not selling either.
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mrc
Lieutenant
Posts: 104
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Post by mrc on Aug 5, 2023 4:48:28 GMT
I added a bit to PYPL recently.
Over the last 4 years (2020-23), I started investing in stocks (from 100% fund retirement portfolio previously to 70% funds & 30% stocks now). I went overboard and bought about 50 stocks so far, most of them minuscule % of overall portfolio. As they went down, I kept on adding in 2022.Now planning to eliminate number of them to bring down number of holdings.
I created a stock only portfolio tracker on M*. It is showing that I am up 30% in 2020, 5% in 2021, down 38% in 2022, and up 57% as of today.
Most of this portfolio is technology stocks, LG stocks (META, GOOG, AMZN, etc.) to speculative small growth stocks (PLTR, OPEN, SOFI, etc.).
Because of this concentration, I reduced my LG fund significantly in my 401k a few months ago.
Sold invested amount from NFLX and NVDA (two stocks I was lucky to get almost at the 2022 bottom) and kept the remaining amount.
I am looking forward to selling many of these stocks and increasing allocation to Small Value, EM Value (using Avantis ETFs) - in general value -, also to add to the stocks I own than buying any new.
Top 10 stocks in this portfolio is
1. META
2. MELI
3. MU
4. GOOG
5. AMZN
6. SHOP
7. BABA
8. SOFI
9. TTD
10. TSLA
Sorry, the main thread purpose is not this, but I took the liberty to post it.
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Post by anitya on Aug 5, 2023 8:44:26 GMT
mrc, 57% TR YTD is very good.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 13:11:45 GMT
IF ^GSPC <= 3500:
Move All Chips In
ELSE:
Stand Pat
Sorry, couldn't help myself
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 5, 2023 14:07:43 GMT
A healthy pullback for SP500 would be -5% to -10%. Note that from 7/27/23 high, the 50-dMA is -4.35% below and 200-dMA -11.08% below. So, the pullback may be seen as the tests of 50-dMA, then 200-dMA. Once the selling starts, where does it stop? Hopefully, -10% to -11% (200-dMA). Don't forget that 10/13/22 low was a decent amount BELOW the MAs, -11.42% BELOW 50-dMA, -16.21% BELOW 200-dMA. Keep your fingers crossed that we don't go there as that would be -24.21% below 7/27/23 high. As a practical matter, I may start buying somethings when we are down -5% to -10% and scale in more as needed. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11025466305 |
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Post by catdog on Aug 5, 2023 15:57:47 GMT
Am looking at getting back in the market after selling all equities on Nov 9, 2022. Had already sold all my bond funds before that. For funds I like VIG and IVV. For stocks I am looking at Dominion Energy as a trade? and also PFE. I am also trying to get the courage up to invest in PFF or another preferred stock fund. In the preferred I am hoping for capital appreciation at some point.
Catdog
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 16:59:13 GMT
Am looking at getting back in the market after selling all equities on Nov 9, 2022. Had already sold all my bond funds before that. For funds I like VIG and IVV. For stocks I am looking at Dominion Energy as a trade? and also PFE. I am also trying to get the courage up to invest in PFF or another preferred stock fund. In the preferred I am hoping for capital appreciation at some point. Catdog Isn't that selling low, buying high? |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 5, 2023 18:08:12 GMT
A healthy pullback for SP500 would be -5% to -10%. Note that from 7/27/23 high, the 50-dMA is -4.35% below and 200-dMA -11.08% below. So, the pullback may be seen as the tests of 50-dMA, then 200-dMA. Once the selling starts, where does it stop? Hopefully, -10% to -11% (200-dMA). Don't forget that 10/13/22 low was a decent amount BELOW the MAs, -11.42% BELOW 50-dMA, -16.21% BELOW 200-dMA. Keep your fingers crossed that we don't go there as that would be -24.21% below 7/27/23 high. As a practical matter, I may start buying somethings when we are down -5% to -10% and scale in more as needed. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11025466305FWIW: My daily chart does show a confluence of support indicators at the 4100/4150 level. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p02479222954&a=412512122&listNum=86 |
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Post by catdog on Aug 5, 2023 18:52:40 GMT
Django,
Yes you are right. I hit a point where the markets were beginning to stress me out and I needed a break. This time around I will be getting back in with no more than 40% equities. I am 69 and will be getting more conservitive in my allocations.
Catdog
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mrc
Lieutenant
Posts: 104
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Post by mrc on Aug 5, 2023 19:24:25 GMT
It is just the stock only portfolio.
Overall retirement portfolio returns are more sedate.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 19:26:03 GMT
Django, Yes you are right. I hit a point where the markets were beginning to stress me out and I needed a break. This time around I will be getting back in with no more than 40% equities. I am 69 and will be getting more conservitive in my allocations. Catdog FWIW, I'm also 69 and I'm at 35% stocks and 5% preferreds, pretty close to what you have proposed. |
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Post by catdog on Aug 5, 2023 20:32:59 GMT
Django
5% in preferreds sounds reasonable to me. Would you be willing to share stocks/funds used?
Catdog
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2023 21:51:38 GMT
Django 5% in preferreds sounds reasonable to me. Would you be willing to share stocks/funds used? Catdog I'm using ETFs for my preferreds allocation. PFFV and PFFD. |
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Post by anitya on Aug 6, 2023 1:07:44 GMT
IF ^GSPC <= 3500: Move All Chips In ELSE: Stand Pat Sorry, couldn't help myself Did you move all chips in on Oct 13, 2022? SPY went down to 348.1 (equivalent to 3481 in S&P 500). If you did not, what prevented you.? |
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Post by catdog on Aug 6, 2023 1:40:06 GMT
Django
Thank you. I will do a half allocation of each. Also thanks to Richardstock for getting me thinking about preferreds again.
Catdog
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2023 2:09:46 GMT
IF ^GSPC <= 3500: Move All Chips In ELSE: Stand Pat Sorry, couldn't help myself Did you move all chips in on Oct 13, 2022? SPY went down to 348.1 (equivalent to 3481 in S&P 500). If you did not, what prevented you.? I turned 80 that year and sold a bunch to reallocate to 50% Equi and 50% Cash Equiv (gotta make sure spouse is comfortable). I did go to 60/40 on that dip which is my "all Chips in" now. I've sold some since and am back to 50/50. If we see 3500 I will do the 60/40 again. Sorry if my "All Chips In" represented me as James Bond. At my age I'm a Woody Allen. |
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Post by johntaylor on Aug 6, 2023 14:02:07 GMT
For Moderna etc, the bloom may be off the rose (covid booster uptake)
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Post by catdog on Aug 6, 2023 14:29:05 GMT
When the big race for vaccine approval was on, it was often mentioned that Moderna's breakthrough would be applied to other areas besides Covid. Am I missing something or has that excitement gone away?
Catdog
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2023 17:10:04 GMT
Django Thank you. I will do a half allocation of each. Also thanks to Richardstock for getting me thinking about preferreds again. Catdog That makes me very uncomfortable. Please do your own due diligence on PFFV & PFFD. I am just an amateur investor with an internet connection. IMHO, you should probably consider getting professional guidance, not follow anonymous strangers in a chat room. There is no need to respond. |
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Post by anitya on Aug 6, 2023 21:43:32 GMT
uncleharley, Do you have a read on DIS and BABA? I bought and sold BABA so many times, makes me question my predictive skills but looks like it may break out to the upside.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 6, 2023 21:50:58 GMT
uncleharley , Do you have a read on DIS and BABA? I bought and sold BABA so many times, makes me question my predictive skills but looks like it may break out to the upside. The daily chart for DIS looks dull. BABAs daily chart looks more constructive. I would wait for a 50/200 dema crossover. If the cross looks like a breakout, it could be profitable. |
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Post by anitya on Aug 11, 2023 0:35:53 GMT
I own F and GM. These are very small but annoying positions I hold. Their stock prices have been hit hard recently, particularly today. CNBC speculated this is because of the UAW demands which would cost the automakers some $80+B in additional costs. Tesla stock price did not show any such effect. Are its workers not unionized? Tesla workers already paid well?
Also, are F and GM just a distraction in a portfolio, with limited to no near term upside?
Thanks.
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Post by kathiel on Aug 11, 2023 1:38:51 GMT
anitya, You ere correct, TESLA workers are not unionized.
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