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Post by chang on Oct 19, 2023 19:57:45 GMT
I see the 10Y Treasury yield has touched 4.97%. fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILandingI've said a gazillion times that I see no point buying further out on the yield curve while it's inverted. The peak is 6M (5.48%). I've been buying 3M and 6M T-bills and rolling them over, while I wait for yields to top out. But the curve is flattening, and I am wondering whether 5% might be a psychological level for the 10Y. Hell, it might go right up to 6% (that's where AA+ rated agency bonds are), or 7%, or 8%. I dunno. I have a feeling it will bust through 5%, though. Back to the question, is anyone going to buy the 10Y at 5%? I guess I could nibble, although I would feel pretty stupid watching the value drop as yields keep going up. I think I would rather wait for yields to peak, and then buy after they've tapered off a bit. But I can't help but be curious what others are thinking. PS. The 5Y and 10Y are actually identical at 4.97%. I suppose both could have appeal.
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Post by fishingrod on Oct 19, 2023 21:40:13 GMT
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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 20, 2023 16:10:32 GMT
chang , fishingrod ,... I posted this on Fido forum, with a later reply. Note ten year yield rebounded and crossed 5% for a minute or two, then fell back. Now 4.918%.-------------------------------------------------- OK, time for some accountability. Over a month ago, (27 Sept) I posted the following: "The investor demand for a 5% ten year treasury will likely be very large. Suggest those contemplating buying some for long term portfolio holdings, consider front-running, and buy at 4.9% or above...if it even gets to that yield. Treasury yield/bond prices have cyclic swings, same as stocks. Most likely a bottom in price forming soon, as investors grin from the sidelines in their money market funds. To me, I would define success as those who get locked into longer duration stuff, at very favorable and durable yields. At least that is my goal. Disclosure: Had a son-in-law email me yesterday saying he bought two year and five year treasury bonds, locking in the yield. Atta boy. (He and my daughter, each age 53, are "retiring" in a year and will spend some of this income) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 October post: Wow, so far, spot-on. So 6 days ago, google shows the ten year Treasury peaked at 4.884% yield. (4.9% rounded). And apparently strong buying came in. Current available rate is 4.69%. Still time to lock in a decent rate that will help many portfolios for next decade. Not useful to plan on buying at absolute peaks or bottoms. For those who planned on buying, and were playing golf that peak day last Wednesday, I hope you gave up lunch and went home and bought the ten year bond, or a like fund! Good day... R48
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Post by anitya on Oct 20, 2023 21:57:27 GMT
chang & yogibearbull, There is a new issue 7% coupon FHLB maturing in 2038 (15 yr) but callable starting in three months (and every three months after that). There is also a 6.95% FFCB maturing in 2043 (20 yr) and call protected for a year and then callable continuously. How would you game theory either of these? Fed is bent on getting us back down to 2% inflation (hell or high water). So, let us say, the FF rate settles (pick your timeline) at 2.5%. Add a term premium of 1.5%-2%. Under what likely scenario can these turn out to be a bad deal as part of one's long term hold, intermediate term hold, or short term hold of one's portfolio. I would welcome all constructive (non-dismissive) comments. P.S.: The above available at Fidelity (probably Schwab too). The last time I checked, Vanguard did not participate in new issue agencies but you can easily wire money from Vanguard to Fidelity.
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Post by fishingrod on Oct 23, 2023 9:11:06 GMT
We are above the 5% mark for the 10 year treasury again.
This week may become very volatile.
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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 23, 2023 16:25:46 GMT
Ten year Treasury yield now 4.863%, 11:34 am Monday, CNBC...a few hours later.
Ackman also announced he has covered all is LT Treasury SHORTS.
R48
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Post by django on Oct 23, 2023 17:14:42 GMT
Added a new 6 month this AM. Yield came in at a disappointing 5.37%.
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Post by tomarin on Oct 24, 2023 14:13:51 GMT
Purchased yesterday a new 6 month T-Bill, yield at 5.56%.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 24, 2023 14:30:47 GMT
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Post by django on Oct 24, 2023 15:12:28 GMT
tomarin and YBB. Thanks for the good news.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 27, 2023 11:43:43 GMT
autoroll helps in 401K brokerage account where it won't count the incoming maturing bond in a few days if you place an auction order yourself. Without autoroll, your money will wait for a week to get into the same auction. Schwab autoroll is not the same as fido. The order will be automatic but only after the current bond matures. It still wait for a week. Fidelity auto-roll for 52-wk T-Bill had to be cancelled by phone yesterday, 10/26/23; it wasn't possible to do online. It was Thursday of the week before 52-wk maturity and the next 52-wk Auction (Announcement date). But no auto-orders were generated for that upcoming 52-wk Auction (Auto-roll instruction had said that it could be cancelled by cancelling the auto-order). It may be that auto-roll kicks in AFTER the maturity, but then the next 52-wk Auction would be almost a month away. So, Fido auto-roll may be similar to Schwab auto-roll in that they kick in AFTER maturity. This is to be further verified (and if so, it would reduce the utility of auto-roll).
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Post by chang on Oct 27, 2023 16:29:19 GMT
I've got some cash to put to work. The 6M is still the highest yielding T-bill at 5.54%. RPHIX per Fido is 5.42% (30d SEC).
Any better idea than putting it into the 6M that closes on Monday?
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Post by sortatino2 on Oct 28, 2023 21:14:05 GMT
If you are in a higher tax bracket, Muni Money Market (Vanguard currently at 4.0%)may provide a better return. Otherwise Vanguard Money Markey paying 5.3% and you retain flexibility which I prefer over making 0.2%+ more.
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Post by chang on Oct 28, 2023 21:52:13 GMT
I've got some cash to put to work. The 6M is still the highest yielding T-bill at 5.54%. RPHIX per Fido is 5.42% (30d SEC). Any better idea than putting it into the 6M that closes on Monday? Currently looking at 5.512%. I put an order in for Monday's auction.
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Post by Birdman96 on Oct 29, 2023 14:11:30 GMT
We’ve been slowly moving most of our short-term bond funds to t-bills. Our orders are in for Monday’s 6-month t-bill auction in taxable and IRA accounts.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 29, 2023 14:27:46 GMT
3m T-Bill yields have been flatlined for weeks. However, 5y, 10y, 30y yields continue to rise due to the activities of bond vigilantes. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24IRX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75815768413Similar for 6m, stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST6M&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70310329310This means that m-mkt funds and ultra-ST funds have all caught up with T-Bills. So, starting this week I am discontinuing T-Bill rolls and parking money into m-mkt funds, ultra-ST funds ( USFR, ICSH), or extend maturities in some other ways (e.g multisector or HY). It may be a bit early, but my T-Bills will continue to roll off into 2024, and not all would happen right away.
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Post by chang on Oct 29, 2023 16:08:23 GMT
3m T-Bill yields have been flatlined for weeks. However, 5y, 10y, 30y yields continue to rise due to the activities of bond vigilantes. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24IRX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75815768413Similar for 6m, stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST6M&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70310329310This means that m-mkt funds and ultra-ST funds have all caught up with T-Bills. So, starting this week I am discontinuing T-Bill rolls and parking money into m-mkt funds, ultra-ST funds ( USFR, ICSH), or extend maturities in some other ways (e.g multisector or HY). It may be a bit early, but my T-Bills will continue to roll off into 2024, and not all would happen right away. Indeed I have noted several times in recent months that the yield curve is de-inverting. 6M is still the peak Treasury yield ( link), and at >5.5% it beats MMs. Hence, I am still buying the 6M. Waiting for the 10y to hit 6% and then I'll buy.
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Post by anitya on Oct 30, 2023 1:06:27 GMT
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Post by anitya on Oct 31, 2023 21:43:29 GMT
I know some of you guys participated in the auction yesterday (and today). How well were the auctions received (i.e., what rates did you get)?
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Post by nobhead on Oct 31, 2023 23:44:17 GMT
I know some of you guys participated in the auction yesterday (and today). How well were the auctions received (i.e., what rates did you get)? I got 5.53% (per year) on 6 month.
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 1, 2023 0:00:35 GMT
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 5, 2023 14:33:26 GMT
chang , fishingrod , retiredat48 , anitya , django , tomarin , yogibearbull , sortatino2 , Birdman96 , nobhead , OK, time for more accountability, another month later. A previous post update.-------------------------------------------------- Original Post: OK, time for some accountability. Over a month ago, (27 Sept) I posted the following: "The investor demand for a 5% ten year treasury will likely be very large. Suggest those contemplating buying some for long term portfolio holdings, consider front-running, and buy at 4.9% or above...if it even gets to that yield. Treasury yield/bond prices have cyclic swings, same as stocks. Most likely a bottom in price forming soon, as investors grin from the sidelines in their money market funds. To me, I would define success as those who get locked into longer duration stuff, at very favorable and durable yields. At least that is my goal. Disclosure: Had a son-in-law email me yesterday saying he bought two year and five year treasury bonds, locking in the yield. Atta boy. (He and my daughter, each age 53, are "retiring" in a year and will spend some of this income) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 October post: Wow, so far, spot-on. So 6 days ago, google shows the ten year Treasury peaked at 4.884% yield. (4.9% rounded). And apparently strong buying came in. Current available rate is 4.69%. Still time to lock in a decent rate that will help many portfolios for next decade. Not useful to plan on buying at absolute peaks or bottoms. For those who planned on buying, and were playing golf that peak day last Wednesday, I hope you gave up lunch and went home and bought the ten year bond, or a like fund! ---------------------------------------------------------- UPDATE: Friday, 11/04/23...Ten yr treasury bond rate rose again, touching just above 5% for perhaps an hour, then fell quickly as surmised. Never closed above 5%. Today the rate is 4.57%. For investors wanting to add the "safe" 5 to 10 yr treasury bonds to portfolio allocation, and you front-ran the 5% level, you are now invested and achieved the goal. For traders, likewise you bought in at let's say 4.95% yield, and now have a 40 basis point fall in yields (gain in bond fund prices). So you could take gains if you like.Case closed! Objective achieved. Good day... R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 6, 2023 19:10:58 GMT
OK, TIME FOR FINAL ACCOUNTABILITY.
...So we had two assaults on the 5% yield. The first about third week of Oct and ten yr yield got above 5% for about ten minutes; the second, about last week of October, got above 5% for a couple hours. Yield never closed above 5%. Then yield fell quickly, and today sits around 4.14%.
To those who realized the value of a 4.9-5% ten year yield on their asset allocated portfolio, and who front ran the 5% as suggested (especially for retiree portfolios), congratulations. For you have now locked in an excellent rate, and need not worry if 5% will ever return.
To those traders who similarly front-ran 5% and bought at 4.90-4.99%, congratulations also for you now have an approx 80 basis point drop in yields and a goodly capital gain. Take it if you like.
Glad to have helped, if so.
R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 6, 2023 19:14:48 GMT
For both the long term investors, and traders on this continuous thread, you may find of interest the following final accountability post I made on the Fidelity Forum: --------------------------
OK, TIME FOR FINAL ACCOUNTABILITY.
About two months ago, (27 Sept) I posted the following:
"The investor demand for a 5% ten year treasury will likely be very large.
Suggest those contemplating buying some for long term portfolio holdings, consider front-running, and buy at 4.9% or above...if it even gets to that yield.
Treasury yield/bond prices have cyclic swings, same as stocks. Most likely a bottom in price forming soon, as investors grin from the sidelines in their money market funds.
To me, I would define success as those who get locked into longer duration stuff, at very favorable and durable yields. At least that is my goal.
Disclosure: Had a son-in-law email me yesterday saying he bought two year and five year treasury bonds, locking in the yield. Atta boy. (He and my daughter, each age 53, are "retiring" in a year and will spend some of this income)"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interim 10 Oct followup post: Wow, so far, spot-on. So 6 days ago, google shows the ten year Treasury peaked at 4.884% yield. (4.9% rounded). And apparently strong buying came in. Current available rate is 4.69%. Still time to lock in a decent rate that will help many portfolios for next decade. Not useful to plan on buying at absolute peaks or bottoms. For those who planned on buying, and were playing golf that peak day last Wednesday, I hope you gave up lunch and went home and bought the ten year bond, or a like fund!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FINAL ACCOUNTABILITY...So we had two assaults on the 5% yield. The first about third week of Oct and ten yr yield got above 5% for about ten minutes; the second, about last week of October, got above 5% for a couple hours. Yield never closed above 5%. Then yield fell quickly, and today sits around 4.28 4.14%.
To those who realized the value of a 4.9-5% ten year yield on their asset allocated portfolio, and who front ran the 5% as suggested (especially for retiree portfolios), congratulations. For you have now locked in an excellent rate, and need not worry if 5% will ever return.
To those traders who similarly front-ran 5% and bought at 4.90-4.99%, congratulations also for you now have an approx 80 basis point drop in yields and a goodly capital gain. Take it if you like.
Glad to have helped, if so.
R48
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 6, 2023 20:21:16 GMT
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