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Post by anitya on Jan 18, 2024 0:44:02 GMT
Does any one know what Jamie Dimon had to say in Davos about China? I saw a partial headline he had something to say.
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Post by anitya on Jan 19, 2024 6:21:39 GMT
chang, This what Moody's had to say today about China - "We expect China’s economy to expand 5% in 2024. But that’s predicated on extra government support being rolled out, a slowing fall in the property market, and an uptick in the global economy through the second half of the year. Absent that, 2024 could be another year to forget." More than 25% of my international exposure is in China and definitely testing my aversion to losses and patience. China is turning out to be the new widow maker trade!
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Post by chang on Jan 19, 2024 7:52:40 GMT
Thanks anitya . I’m going to take it slow. My two EM funds will be good candidates for a disciplined PyrUp approach. See my post below - these views corroborate what you posted about the challenges in 2024. With sentiment still negative, this looks like a classic contrarian play. Could China's low valuations be a gigantic value trap? My guess is "no", and I've opened my chosen starting positions.
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Post by chang on Jan 19, 2024 8:54:36 GMT
chang , This what Moody's had to say today about China - "We expect China’s economy to expand 5% in 2024. But that’s predicated on extra government support being rolled out, a slowing fall in the property market, and an uptick in the global economy through the second half of the year. Absent that, 2024 could be another year to forget." More than 25% of my international exposure is in China and definitely testing my aversion to losses and patience. China is turning out to be the new widow maker trade! Allianz: "China Equity Outlook 2024 – A Strategic Crossroads"
Key takeaways:
- "China's long-term growth should continue to surpass most Western economies. Target GDP growth for 2024 likely to be around 4.5-5% – can only be achieved with further policy stimulus. A more coherent framework for restructuring property needed as part of recovery story."
- "At the early stages of transitioning to a new growth model based on new technologies."
- "Extrapolating this year’s market and macro weakness may end up being as misguided as the unbridled optimism just three years ago."
www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/outlook-and-commentary/china-equity-outlook-2024
JP Morgan: "Where is the Chinese economy heading in 2024?"
"For investors, the backdrop for China assets will likely still be challenging next year. In the equity market, investors' low expectations on new policy stimulus from the CEWC [Central Economic Work Conference] meant the market responses have been relatively muted.
"Stability" is the key word in 2024, and this could translate into lower margins or ROE for Chinese banks. The outlook for Chinese banks stays clouded given macro pressure, earnings slowdown and contagion risk from property bond defaults against very strong reserve positioning.
Policies encouraging innovation and supporting the digital economy bolster our positive view on large cap China internet stocks, especially after the recent correction. Some of these names are now trading close to last October’s lows, yet earnings visibility into 2024 remains reasonably high.
Given the lack of new measures, we stay cautious on the property sector until we see a meaningful improvement in developers’ liquidity condition and/or primary sales.
While a massive consumption stimulus package appears unlikely, selective sub-sectors such as semiconductors, tourism, new energy vehicles, and automation, will likely receive targeted support measures.
Overall, the CEWC is a non-event for equity investors. Valuations for Chinese equities are now one standard deviation below the near-term average. However, it may continue its bottom-searching process for the rest of the year as investor confidence (and liquidity flows) remain weak. Continued earnings recovery into 2024 (JPM PB MSCI China 2024 EPS growth 9-10%) could provide comfort on the fundamentals side."privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en/insights/markets-and-investing/where-is-the-chinese-economy-heading-in-2024
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Post by Karen on Jan 19, 2024 9:55:12 GMT
www.yahoo.com/finance/news/chinas-mutual-funds-implode-fastest-024308872.htmlExcerpt:A relentless selloff has turned China into the world’s worst-performing major market in the new year, as a deepening housing slump and stubborn deflationary pressures weigh on the economic outlook.
The benchmark CSI 300 Index dropped 0.4% this week capping its ninth weekly drop in ten, despite signs of heavy purchases by state funds dubbed the “national team.” The mainland Chinese stock gauge remains 4.7% down in 2024, following a record three consecutive years of losses.
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Post by anitya on Jan 19, 2024 20:04:59 GMT
Thanks, chang. Good post.
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Post by roi2020 on Jan 21, 2024 20:53:52 GMT
Chinese government policies and their effects on domestic markets are examined. The author recommends avoiding any investments in China.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 21, 2024 21:18:56 GMT
US at all-time high, China near 2009 (GFC) lows, Twitter LINKAccording to Barron's International Trader this week, some of the damage is self-inflicted as Prez Xi is putting Party above businesses/economy.
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Post by Majick on Feb 26, 2024 15:48:03 GMT
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Post by Capital on Feb 26, 2024 16:01:44 GMT
EMXC has been my Emerging Markets slice for some time. It is the x-China version at iShares and I remain committed to this strategy. I do not like the Chinese model of ownership for foreign investors nor do I trust its government. I understand the draw to China and wish luck to those that invest there.
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