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Post by chang on Jan 8, 2021 12:31:34 GMT
Good reminder about SCHD Norbert. One of my favorite taxable acct holdings. Might be the right place to add (or shift) to.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 8, 2021 13:47:21 GMT
Yes I own SCHD and it's performing well. Value is starting to show up. Most equities are doing well. I feel like I can "set it and forget it" with equities but I am not sure bond OEFs are ever like that.
I can't buy VUSFX at Schwab. But I'm researching other's available. I like ETFs.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 8, 2021 14:02:32 GMT
When I read threads like this I'm frustrated. I put my SIL in MMHAX in mid November for his cash. Attachments:
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 8, 2021 14:17:39 GMT
Yes I own SCHD and it's performing well. Value is starting to show up. Most equities are doing well. I feel like I can "set it and forget it" with equities but I am not sure bond OEFs are ever like that. I can't buy VUSFX at Schwab. But I'm researching other's available. I like ETFs. There are several ultra-ST bond ETFs now, see list below from ETFdb.com. Interestingly, Vanguard has none. I have been using ICSH. Note that GSY is not on the list as it is classified under corporate bond ETFs. I am also OK with parking cash in ST bonds [OEFs, ETFs] and am willing to accept their small volatility. etfdb.com/etfs/bond-duration/ultra-short-term/?search[inverse]=false&search[leveraged]=false
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Post by Chahta on Jan 8, 2021 15:29:09 GMT
Thanks YBB. I will look at ICSH too. GSY also has securitized and cash equivalents.
===================================================================================
FD1000, your SIL has you to guide him. ;-)
I know you don't like forecasting, but how do HYM look for 3 months?
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 8, 2021 17:57:12 GMT
Thanks YBB. I will look at ICSH too. GSY also has securitized and cash equivalents. =================================================================================== FD1000, your SIL has you to guide him. ;-) I know you don't like forecasting, but how do HYM look for 3 months? My monthly thread tells you all, but I'm thinking to stop posting since I don't see any discussions or anybody who cares. I can't find HYM, I found HYMB and it looks very close to HHMAX. SHMB is HY shorter duration, but volatility is close while performance lags so why bother. Looks like HY Munis are doing excellent so far. I prefer GSY over ICSH and RPHIX over both. It's easy to buy and trade GSY. Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on Jan 8, 2021 18:14:46 GMT
Thanks YBB. I will look at ICSH too. GSY also has securitized and cash equivalents. =================================================================================== FD1000, your SIL has you to guide him. ;-) I know you don't like forecasting, but how do HYM look for 3 months? My monthly thread tells you all, but I'm thinking to stop posting since I don't see any discussions or anybody who cares. I can't find HYM, I found HYMB and it looks very close to HHMAX. SHMB is HY shorter duration, but volatility is close while performance lags so why bother. Looks like HY Munis are doing excellent so far. I prefer GSY over ICSH and RPHIX over both. It's easy to buy and trade GSY. See my BSW post.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 8, 2021 20:09:03 GMT
HY Munis had a great run so don't expected it to continue, but 0.5% monthly would be just great. In mid August start paying attention when to get out and come back in November. Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on Jan 8, 2021 22:09:49 GMT
I did the August/October switch in my taxable with core plus munis.
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Post by chang on Jan 9, 2021 0:47:42 GMT
My monthly thread tells you all, but I'm thinking to stop posting since I don't see any discussions or anybody who cares. Look at the main page of this forum at the very bottom, where it says: Forum Age 0 Years, 0 Months, and 20 Days80 members in 20 days ain't bad. Give it time! Unfortunately there are many members, including some great M* posters from the "old days", who made 0-1 posts and seem to have gone dormant. Maybe at the one-month mark I'll do a mass mailing and encourage everyone to contribute to this ad-free forum.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 9, 2021 1:10:11 GMT
Just don’t give up on it. This is a loooong term investment.
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Post by chang on Jan 9, 2021 1:13:24 GMT
Is VBILX doing this to me personally? I swear it's actually pissed off at me for what I said, and dropping 0.25-0.50% every day just to get back at me. (FXNAX also, to a lesser extent.) OK then, VBILX, are you listening? I'm giving you until next Wednesday to shape up or I'm going to kick you out of my portfolio so hard you won't bounce twice before you land in the street.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 9, 2021 12:55:14 GMT
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Post by fred495 on Jan 12, 2021 23:36:56 GMT
At this time, I just don't see any good reason to hold most highly recommended and highly rated intermediate core/core plus bond funds with their low SEC dividend yield, now usually in the 1 - 2% range. An exception are some multisector bond funds like PIMIX, RCTIX and TSIIX, for example, that may eke out total returns greater than their SEC yield.
As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I have been looking for other low volatility options that may offer more competitive total returns in the current low, but seemingly rising, interest rate environment. I have come across two promising alternative funds: ARBIX (SD = 2.94%) and HMEZX (SD = 3.86), also two allocation funds somewhat similar to the old BERIX fund, i.e., before it changed ownership, that usually have a small equity exposure of around 20%. The two funds are FIKFX (SD = 4.14%) and VASIX (SD= 4.74%).
Good luck,
Fred
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Post by Chahta on Jan 13, 2021 0:33:57 GMT
At this time, I just don't see any good reason to hold most highly recommended and highly rated intermediate core/core plus bond funds with their low SEC dividend yield, now usually in the 1 - 2% range. An exception are some multisector bond funds like PIMIX, RCTIX and TSIIX, for example, that may eke out total returns greater than their SEC yield. As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I have been looking for other low volatility options that may offer more competitive total returns in the current low, but seemingly rising, interest rate environment. I have come across two promising alternative funds: ARBIX (SD = 2.94%) and HMEZX (SD = 3.86), also two allocation funds somewhat similar to the old BERIX fund, i.e., before it changed ownership, that usually have a small equity exposure of around 20%. The two funds are FIKFX (SD = 4.14%) and VASIX (SD= 4.74%). Good luck, Fred Hi Fred. What is your "normal" AA? Thanks.
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Post by chang on Jan 13, 2021 1:17:18 GMT
As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I have been looking for other low volatility options that may offer more competitive total returns in the current low, but seemingly rising, interest rate environment. I have come across two promising alternative funds: ARBIX (SD = 2.94%) and HMEZX (SD = 3.86), I saw "ARBIX" and mistook it for ARBFX/ARBNX, an old and well-known merger-arbitrage fund. I tried ARBNX once, many years ago, and concluded, like essentially all market neutral and related funds, that while the strategy was essentially sound and would produce a long-term positive (but small) return, it was complicated and effort-consuming to execute. Consequently expenses were high, and in the long term I would not be adequately rewarded compared to other, simpler, lower-cost options. I reached the conclusion that the entire class of expensive, complicated-strategy "alternative" funds (merger-arbitrage, market neutral, TEAMX, WAGFX, etc.) were either gimmicks, opaque black boxes, or possibly sound strategies which would, however, consume almost all of their modest returns in expenses. Therefore, after deciding to bypass this whole category I have never looked back. ARBIX does have strong, but short record. It is not a standard merger-arbitrage fund (l ink to fund page). Odd that it has only $275m for a fund that's been around since 2002, although not everybody is looking for a convertible merger-arbitrage fund. The site says- Mohican manages a flexible long/short convertible bond strategy that combines a concentrated portfolio of well-researched small/mid-cap convertible securities with opportunistic hedging of credit, interest rates and volatility ..... Mohican, the sub-adviser to the Fund, expects to take advantage of the relationship between a company's convertible bonds and its common stock seeking positive absolute returns over the long-term with lower volatility than traditional market indices. The Fund is designed to complement either the alternative or fixed income sleeve of a diversified portfolio and may be attractive to investors seeking moderate return with relatively low volatility.
Like all funds in the category, it is not cheap at 1.49%. I plan to stick to my guns and avoid entering any funds like this, but it was interesting to hear about it.
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Post by fred495 on Jan 13, 2021 1:47:40 GMT
At this time, I just don't see any good reason to hold most highly recommended and highly rated intermediate core/core plus bond funds with their low SEC dividend yield, now usually in the 1 - 2% range. An exception are some multisector bond funds like PIMIX, RCTIX and TSIIX, for example, that may eke out total returns greater than their SEC yield. As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I have been looking for other low volatility options that may offer more competitive total returns in the current low, but seemingly rising, interest rate environment. I have come across two promising alternative funds: ARBIX (SD = 2.94%) and HMEZX (SD = 3.86), also two allocation funds somewhat similar to the old BERIX fund, i.e., before it changed ownership, that usually have a small equity exposure of around 20%. The two funds are FIKFX (SD = 4.14%) and VASIX (SD= 4.74%). Good luck, Fred Hi Fred. What is your "normal" AA? Thanks.
Hi, Chahta,
Difficult to answer, but under "normal" market conditions, whatever that means, and considering my age and other personal circumstances, I would probably feel comfortable with a 30/70 equity/bond portfolio. But, currently, for example, I am 30% in cash.
I am with chang when he said a while ago: "I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution."
Fred
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Post by fred495 on Jan 13, 2021 2:27:23 GMT
chang said: "ARBIX does have strong, but short record. It is not a standard merger-arbitrage fund (link to fund page). Odd that it has only $275m for a fund that's been around since 2002, although not everybody is looking for a convertible merger-arbitrage fund."
ARBIX has been around since 2017, not 2002. In my book, the fund has an excellent risk/reward record. Since its inception in August 2017, its largest monthly loss was 0.38%, except during the March crash when it lost 3.10%. Its 3-year total return is 5.9%, and 6.9% since inception.
Additionally, ARBIX has a very low standard deviation of only 2.96%, and a Sharpe and Sortino ratio of 1.40 and 2.29, respectively.
High expense ratio or not, looking at the bottom line, I am very pleased with the fund's performance and its diversification value in my portfolio.
Fred
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 16, 2021 16:53:11 GMT
YTD, there are several funds at 1+% performance while many higher-rated funds at -0.7% loss, but HY Munis which gives you decent protection over the years are mostly up at 0.7-0.9%. So again, it's extremely important to know where to invest. In just 2 weeks being in the "wrong" funds means you can be 1.5% behind. ER never played a roll for me and never will. Even PIMIX has ER>1% and was one of the best risk-adjusted funds...so what?
And just a reminder that Schwab lets you buy Muni funds in your IRAs while Fidelity doesn't.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 16, 2021 18:06:15 GMT
I did. It's a learning process for me. ER does not matter much, it is results that matter. I can see holding my muni core plus longer term in the taxable account and HYM as long as they hold up.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 16, 2021 22:20:07 GMT
The worse is to conclude that ER must always be very low. A better choice is to learn, try and tweak your system, and it gets a lot more important as a retiree when you want/need better risk/reward funds. Making higher % more annually with the same volatility is a good achievement, after all, several of us care more about not losing than higher performance.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 17, 2021 22:42:53 GMT
The worse is to conclude that ER must always be very low. A better choice is to learn, try and tweak your system, and it gets a lot more important as a retiree when you want/need better risk/reward funds. Making higher % more annually with the same volatility is a good achievement, after all, several of us care more about not losing than higher performance. Interesting. I never saw you say that before. Of course none of us want to lose anything, but I am not concerned with short term loses. Only long term loses. But on second thought the older I get, the more short term loses may become long term loses.
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Post by Norbert on Jan 18, 2021 1:20:05 GMT
chang said: "ARBIX does have strong, but short record. It is not a standard merger-arbitrage fund (link to fund page). Odd that it has only $275m for a fund that's been around since 2002, although not everybody is looking for a convertible merger-arbitrage fund." ARBIX has been around since 2017, not 2002. In my book, the fund has an excellent risk/reward record. Since its inception in August 2017, its largest monthly loss was 0.38%, except during the March crash when it lost 3.10%. Its 3-year total return is 5.9%, and 6.9% since inception. Additionally, ARBIX has a very low standard deviation of only 2.96%, and a Sharpe and Sortino ratio of 1.40 and 2.29, respectively. High expense ratio or not, looking at the bottom line, I am very pleased with the fund's performance and its diversification value in my portfolio. Fred ARBIX was converted from a hedge fund in 2017. Its fact sheet cites performance dating to 2002. The fund has slightly underperformed its convertible arbitrage index since 2017. Long term the index has annual returns under 1%. Personally, I don't think that low short term volatility is predictive of future volatility.
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Post by chang on Jan 18, 2021 1:39:46 GMT
Norbert : "I don't think that low short term volatility is predictive of future volatility."My biggest lesson learned from 2020.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 18, 2021 4:18:10 GMT
Norbert : "I don't think that low short term volatility is predictive of future volatility."My biggest lesson learned from 2020. My biggest lessons from 2020: 1) The only low volatility is to sell and why I don't worry about it. If I'm "wrong" and I was, no biggie, I just switch or buy back when the high risk goes down. 2) Only pure treasuries (VSIGX) holds up. BND+VBILX lost 5-6% in the meltdown but since 5/1/2020 VSIGX lost money. I don't want any of my positions to lose money. 3) Stocks+bonds had a V recovery thanks to the FED. Don't expect the next correction to be the same, especially if it will be slower. 4) I don't assume anything about the future and I don't base anything on the past. Markets do change and why I stay flexible all the time. 5) I never invest after the correction based on what happened during the correction, especially not for the next several years. 6) The most/easist money you make is after the correction. Attachments:
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Post by chang on Jan 25, 2021 12:22:16 GMT
Is VBILX doing this to me personally? I swear it's actually pissed off at me for what I said, and dropping 0.25-0.50% every day just to get back at me. (FXNAX also, to a lesser extent.) OK then, VBILX, are you listening? I'm giving you until next Wednesday to shape up or I'm going to kick you out of my portfolio so hard you won't bounce twice before you land in the street. VBILX is having another crappy month. What do you guys think? I'm still well in the green with this fund, given its super 2020 performance, but I see no reason to stay on a sinking ship. It's still hanging on to a 5* rating, but that won't last long. Is it time to get the hell out of I/T US Treasuries which comprise 54% of this fund? Logic: rates may or may not be going up, but they sure ain't going down. How much is this fund paying me to take interest rate risk? Virtually nothing. So what does it offer? Basically Black Swan protection like it delivered in 2020. But is it the best vehicle for that? Probably not. So why own it? I think I'd be better off dumping it all into gold. Edit: Decided. Order placed to dump all remaining shares into VUSFX.
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 25, 2021 13:02:59 GMT
I'm not personally seeing a great positive to owning a lot of traditional bonds in this environment; for the reasons you cited. For protection? Yeah, I can see that. I'm personally barbelling moderate allocation funds with the current flyers and keeping a close watch on them. Quite a bit more SC, some Asia. The combination is working out fairly well, and I don't feel as if my butt is hanging out TOO far! ;-)
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Post by Norbert on Jan 25, 2021 14:27:57 GMT
If some of the Covid-19 variants prove resilient to the vaccines, things could get tricky. T-Bonds would soar if this happens. They zag when stocks zig. And I do think they could zig.
The UK variant is especially transmittable in the air. The UK now has the planet's highest covid-19 death rate. Vaccinations are taking far too long.
Moderna says that the South Africa variant is even more challenging and doubts the longevity of their vaccine's protective ability. They're working on a booster, but given the time required to deliver, I think we have a problem.
Sorry to sound alarmist ...
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Post by Chahta on Jan 25, 2021 14:29:43 GMT
Is VBILX doing this to me personally? I swear it's actually pissed off at me for what I said, and dropping 0.25-0.50% every day just to get back at me. (FXNAX also, to a lesser extent.) OK then, VBILX, are you listening? I'm giving you until next Wednesday to shape up or I'm going to kick you out of my portfolio so hard you won't bounce twice before you land in the street. VBILX is having another crappy month. What do you guys think? I'm still well in the green with this fund, given its super 2020 performance, but I see no reason to stay on a sinking ship. It's still hanging on to a 5* rating, but that won't last long. Is it time to get the hell out of I/T US Treasuries which comprise 54% of this fund? Logic: rates may or may not be going up, but they sure ain't going down. How much is this fund paying me to take interest rate risk? Virtually nothing. So what does it offer? Basically Black Swan protection like it delivered in 2020. But is it the best vehicle for that? Probably not. So why own it? I think I'd be better off dumping it all into gold. Edit: Decided. Order placed to dump all remaining shares into VUSFX. Traditionally IT is held for ballast, as C Benz would suggest with her portfolios, and to use proceeds to rebalance. I too have good returns in IT. Currently I opted to keep a much smaller amount to wait and see. I suppose it is a gamble that rates do not go up as much as the "fortune tellers" re saying. If the 10 year goes on a terror again my story might change. As a mostly B&Her I am confident IT will recover as a backstop.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 25, 2021 14:33:18 GMT
"If some of the Covid-19 variants prove resilient to the vaccines, things could get tricky. T-Bonds would soar if this happens. They zag when stocks zig. And I do think they could zig.
The UK variant is especially transmittable in the air. The UK now has the planet's highest covid-19 death rate. Vaccinations are taking far too long.
Moderna says that the South Africa variant is even more challenging and doubts the longevity of their vaccine's protective ability. They're working on a booster, but given the time required to deliver, I think we have a problem.
Sorry to sound alarmist ..."
I agree. Everything is in subdued turmoil. The other shoe has not dropped yet. I am still looking for my misplaced crystal ball.
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