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Post by habsui on Mar 25, 2023 22:09:02 GMT
Once upon a time I used to be younger and why I held years. That worked pretty well for me from the start in 1995 to 2008 when I lost 25%. That was a lot of money for me and why I started to trade more, but still held months/years. The older I got with a lot more money things changed. A major key for me is absolute good risk/reward returns. So, if the stock market lost 20%, I'm not happy with "only" 15% loss for my stock portion. If a diversified stock funds made 6% annually for years while the SP500 made 12%, 6% is far from what I want. If bond funds had 4% annually for many years, I want to do a lot more. Basically, I don't believe in relative performance. If you are diversified and hold for years, you will get relative performance. That is good and what I recommend for most, but not for me, especially not in retirement. What you describe is still relative performance.
Hopefully, it's relatively enough for you, just like for all of us.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 26, 2023 14:26:30 GMT
One of the technical indicators I read about says when the 50 dma crosses over higher than 200 dma it ALWAYs signals the end of a bear market. In other words, a cross over lower occurs as a prelude to a bear market and a cross over higher occur as a prelude to indicate the end of the bear.
I examined several symbols such as SPY, QQQ, DIA, VCIT, HYG etc and they all show a 50 dma crossing over 200dma higher already.
So, maybe, the bear is done.
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Post by archer on Mar 26, 2023 21:01:54 GMT
One of the technical indicators I read about says when the 50 dma crosses over higher than 200 dma it ALWAYs signals the end of a bear market. In other words, a cross over lower occurs as a prelude to a bear market and a cross over higher occur as a prelude to indicate the end of the bear. I examined several symbols such as SPY, QQQ, DIA, VCIT, HYG etc and they all show a 50 dma crossing over 200dma higher already. So, maybe, the bear is done. This article goes a bit further in favoring the current golden cross, due the % below a new all time high. I guess this is like the reverse of the "bigger they are the further they fall" Here it's the further they fall the bigger they rise.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 26, 2023 22:57:04 GMT
One of the technical indicators I read about says when the 50 dma crosses over higher than 200 dma it ALWAYs signals the end of a bear market. In other words, a cross over lower occurs as a prelude to a bear market and a cross over higher occur as a prelude to indicate the end of the bear. I examined several symbols such as SPY, QQQ, DIA, VCIT, HYG etc and they all show a 50 dma crossing over 200dma higher already. So, maybe, the bear is done. This article goes a bit further in favoring the current golden cross, due the % below a new all time high. I guess this is like the reverse of the "bigger they are the further they fall" Here it's the further they fall the bigger they rise. archer, thanks for the article.. But I am hesitant to commit more new money to the market.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 26, 2023 23:51:35 GMT
Unless the Fed starts cutting rates soon, more banks would likely fail.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2023 0:20:06 GMT
Interestingly, people have been moving to treasuries and big tech as flight to safety.
treasury was expected but big tech is quite surprising.
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 27, 2023 1:31:51 GMT
Interestingly, people have been moving to treasuries and big tech as flight to safety. treasury was expected but big tech is quite surprising. Big tech can offer returns and stability in uncertain economic times. Many generate their own cash. AAPL and MSFT are loaded. Remember what took off first during COVID? It’s cash rich vs. cash dependent during a rising rate environment. Check a current balance sheet before you invest as part of due diligence and those companies in 2020.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 27, 2023 2:53:39 GMT
Interestingly, people have been moving to treasuries and big tech as flight to safety. treasury was expected but big tech is quite surprising. 7 companies make up 51% of QQQ - and except Tesla none of those 7 have any debt. So, QQQ is a safe haven. Plus I think sufficient damage is already done to QQQ - so it should be less volatile than the rest of the market even if the bear keeps growling for a while longer.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 27, 2023 6:13:28 GMT
The FED and treasury acted very quickly with the banking problem... it is high priority to stabilize the system. Adds to balance sheet, but does not push up inflation. So, expect actions along that line.
Still lending costs have gone up. US Gov't will have trouble financing deficit spending. Maybe they should stop spending so much on solar farms that do not work at night or for half the day (especially in NY and Mass).
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 27, 2023 10:37:58 GMT
Fearchar , Those darn elections get in the way sometimes. Usually the 3rd and maybe 4th year of the first term for an elected President is when the citizens get their goodies in a Democracy.
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Post by mnfish on Mar 27, 2023 11:17:03 GMT
Interestingly, people have been moving to treasuries and big tech as flight to safety. treasury was expected but big tech is quite surprising. 7 companies make up 51% of QQQ - and except Tesla none of those 7 have any debt. So, QQQ is a safe haven. Plus I think sufficient damage is already done to QQQ - so it should be less volatile than the rest of the market even if the bear keeps growling for a while longer. steadyeddy - No debt? Debt/Asset ratio 12/2022 (macrotrends) MSFT .24 AAPL 1.76 GOOGL .06 NVDA .44 META .08 AVGO 1.64 PEP 2.06
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