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Post by chang on Dec 29, 2022 9:43:41 GMT
What's your B&H bond pick for 2023? You can vote for two.
(Unlike Facebook polls, PB polls does not allow members to add categories. But you can comment below.)
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 29, 2022 12:03:18 GMT
None of the above thank-you.
I prefer the following
3 month Treasury Bills at auction with automatic rollover.
7 year Treasury Note at auction.
I would prefer some agencies, but as far as I know, they are not available at auction.
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 29, 2022 13:45:30 GMT
1) I would not invest in any vanilla, very high rated bond + no Vanguard funds. This is the time to look for good funds/managers.
2) HY Munis should be the sweet spot. They have a mixture of high+lower rated bonds + tax advantage. Schwb let you buy Munis in IRA while others(Fidelity) don't
3) CEFs should not be in this list, their risk/SD is similar to stocks. First time in years, I'm OK CEFs but, I would invest in SCHD instead.
So, for
1) Higher rated bonds DODIX is a good choice.
2) My first favorite sector is HY Munis:Think ORNAX+MMHAX.
3) My second favorite sector is Multi. PIMIX is a good choice, but a good chance, I will find a better fund.
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comlb
Lieutenant
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Post by comlb on Dec 29, 2022 19:38:06 GMT
add Munis
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Post by chang on Dec 29, 2022 20:32:52 GMT
I’m only interested in taxable options. |
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Post by Chahta on Dec 29, 2022 22:28:42 GMT
Can I believe what I’m seeing? FD1000 is recommending PIMIX! |
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 30, 2022 1:25:12 GMT
Sold DODIX assets to purchase Stable Value fund in my 401(k) late last year.
Will do the reverse transaction to purchase DOXIX (it replaced DODIX) next year.
DOXIX will be my core bond holding.
After my T-Bills mature, I may consider TIPS depending on prevailing rates at the time.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 30, 2022 1:32:19 GMT
Sold DODIX assets to purchase Stable Value fund in my 401(k) late last year.
Will do the reverse transaction to purchase DOXIX (it replaced DODIX) next year.
DOXIX will be my core bond holding.
After my T-Bills mature, I may consider TIPS depending on prevailing rates at the time. What is DOXIX? |
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 30, 2022 1:37:15 GMT
Sold DODIX assets to purchase Stable Value fund in my 401(k) late last year.
Will do the reverse transaction to purchase DOXIX (it replaced DODIX) next year.
DOXIX will be my core bond holding.
After my T-Bills mature, I may consider TIPS depending on prevailing rates at the time. What is DOXIX?
Dodge & Cox Income Class X shares.
Share class launched 05/02/2022.
Link |
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Post by habsui on Dec 30, 2022 3:11:10 GMT
Can I believe what I’m seeing? FD1000 is recommending PIMIX! I believe these are generic ideas for the average joe. Not for us.. |
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 30, 2022 3:34:46 GMT
Can I believe what I’m seeing? FD1000 is recommending PIMIX! I believe these are generic ideas for the average joe. Not for us.. 👍🤪🙉👌 |
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Post by mozart522 on Dec 30, 2022 15:57:31 GMT
LT treasuries after the pivot.
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 30, 2022 16:53:19 GMT
LT treasuries after the pivot. TLT will make more but SD is huge. The chart below shows 1) TLT SD is 3+ times more: 3% vs 10+% 2) TLT SD is 6+ times more: 0.5% vs 6% TLT is great for mitigating stocks losses...until it's not, see YTD. Attachments:
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Post by mozart522 on Jan 1, 2023 14:19:43 GMT
FD1000, EDV went up 54% in two months in 2008 as rates were dropping. The SD was huge, but it was all Sortino. I made good money last month and then got out. I don't mind upside SD, and I'm willing, as you are, to move in and out quickly. Not going to bet the farm though.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 1, 2023 16:51:46 GMT
LT treasuries after the pivot. LT Treasuries...but before any pivot! R48 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2023 22:26:30 GMT
retiredat48 , mozart522 , Could you both explain your reasoning for purchasing LT treasuries after (Mozart) and before (R48) any Fed pivot (or pause?). What are your assumptions it will be a profitable investment and what is the purpose for your portfolio - short term trade or long term fixed income? Edit - I only made one pick in the poll - TIPs. I have enough risk with equities.
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Post by mozart522 on Jan 3, 2023 19:25:22 GMT
@slooow,
My movement into LT treasuries will be sometime after the pivot starts. The pivot is in 3 stages: 1) the amount of rate hikes ease. This happened in Dec 22. 2) Rate hikes stop. 3) Fed begins to lower rates. The exact timing will be determined by the direction of LT treasuries during these phases. I do not believe I can hit the rock bottom price, but I do believe that falling rates will produce very nice gains in LT treasuries. Timing? Absolutely. Short term? Could be a while, but not long term.
I base a lot of this on history. The recession will likely cause LTT to rise, and the FED rate cut during the back half of the recession will also help. It usually starts before the recession. I really can't see LTT going much lower.
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Post by anitya on Jan 3, 2023 19:37:37 GMT
To all participants,
When discussing bonds, it is useful to specify if one is talking about price or yield, as they move in opposite directions. Just to say if a bond will rise or fall does not convey if they mean price or yield. Please do not assume anything is obvious.
A
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Post by mozart522 on Jan 3, 2023 21:38:40 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 4, 2023 5:05:00 GMT
Another "easier" way is to look at the big picture + the charts to verify it. The big picture tells you when conditions are better. The charts tell you when to trade. If I had to trade TLT, I would use the chart below, based on my T/A. If you pay attention, you can see how getting out in time, after about 4-5% loss saved you another 6% decline. Actually, I used similar trades for my HY munis. Remember, higher SD have a lot more trades. Higher SD isn't a guarantee for better results, but the volatility is a guarantee. For 2023, TLT will definitely make more. Attachments:
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Post by mozart522 on Jan 4, 2023 13:17:17 GMT
FD1000, If I could only get those charts in advance of the market activity instead of after, I'd be in clover. Why didn't you buy at the low in October or sell at the high? How did you know that your Nov buy wasn't going lower? or that your sell wasn't going higher?
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Post by mnfish on Jan 4, 2023 13:43:37 GMT
I didn't see short term US Treasuries which is what I purchased in late 2022 to plan for 2023 so I voted for LT Treasuries which is a pick from Wells Advisors as they believe the Fed, which has already slowed the pace of increases, will stop and possibly cut in 2023 once inflation is waning and a recession begins.
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Post by chang on Jan 4, 2023 14:33:12 GMT
mnfish My oversight; I should have included ST Treasuries / Money Markets as a highly defensive option.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 4, 2023 15:15:38 GMT
2 day bond rally. They are all winners.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 4, 2023 16:59:26 GMT
FD1000 , If I could only get those charts in advance of the market activity instead of after, I'd be in clover. Why didn't you buy at the low in October or sell at the high? How did you know that your Nov buy wasn't going lower? or that your sell wasn't going higher? Remember, I never buy the lowest or sell the highest, there is no way to do it. My T/A indicators signal a beginning of uptrend and a downtrend where I trade. The trick is to know what indicators to look at and when to execute. It's easier with slow movers. If I made a mistake, buying too early or selling too late, I don't lose much. |
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Post by chang on Jan 12, 2023 23:39:58 GMT
I am considering putting 1/3 of my FI into PIMIX. Anyone agree, or want to change my mind?
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Post by Chahta on Jan 13, 2023 2:16:42 GMT
I prefer RSIIX. That will be my next purchase. 6.5% yield and 8% SEC yield.
I held PIMIX 2018 to 2021. Don't really want to again.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 13, 2023 11:25:04 GMT
Ha. Ha. Thanks anonymous lurkers. Made my day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2023 12:30:01 GMT
I am considering putting 1/3 of my FI into PIMIX. Anyone agree, or want to change my mind? It's been a long term holding for me. I no longer reinvest distributions, so it generates cash for CEFs and ETFs purchases. |
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Post by gman57 on Jan 13, 2023 13:15:33 GMT
I am considering putting 1/3 of my FI into PIMIX. Anyone agree, or want to change my mind? Agree, 50% of my FI holdings. It's had better years but it's a steady performer. I hold CEF's and HY Corp in the rest of my FI. |
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