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Post by Norbert on Dec 2, 2022 7:28:31 GMT
Richardsok went out on a limb to tell us what he does. I am purchasing the book this weekend. I respect this and think we all do. Norbert challenged the results which is to be expected. If I write a strategy I would expect the same and welcome it. The forum on how it is challenged or commented on needs to be revisited. We should show respect and kindness when we can. Strategies - my heavens! We've heard a number of them, no? I tend to agree with Norbert as to looking for the holy grail. But, no one - and I do mean no one - has cracked that nut despite claims otherwise. You would be a billionaire. And, we are not. Instead we are near-retirees or retirees who know more than average and have some ideas to exchange. Maybe rather than look at something as a wholesale strategy to adopt or in turn be disregarded, some ideas can be gleaned to help our individual situations. I fully believe I will find that in Richardsok's book as I have learned some things from his posts and others. If you are not learning on this site, why are you here? If you know it all, why are you here? So, Richardsok, please know you are respected - so much so I don't understand what you do! This is a season of giving, charity, and good will to all. Good values to embrace. Finally, I would highly suggest - if one feels a need to address someone in a manner they would not normally do so in a group social setting, take it to a private message or Chang. Best to all of my fellow BB Bozos! You rock! I feel awful about Richard being this upset. He must have spent months writing the book, he believes the strategies work, and was likely very hopeful about the success of the book. My wish is that he'd asked us to review it before publication ; not request Amazon reviews after publication. Given his request for public reviews with our names attached, I felt I had no choice other than to perform serious testing first. To be honest, given my high regard for Richard, I'm surprised he didn't do that himself before publication. He must realize that anecdotal success is not enough evidence to conclude that the system is a path to high probability trading and future wealth. I sincerely hope that Richard will see the humor in the situation and forgive me for delivering such bad news. N.
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Post by chang on Dec 2, 2022 7:57:41 GMT
I feel awful about Richard being this upset. He must have spent months writing the book, he believes the strategies work, and was likely very hopeful about the success of the book. My wish is that he'd asked us to review it before publication ; not request Amazon reviews after publication. Given his request for public reviews with our names attached, I felt I had no choice other than to perform serious testing first. To be honest, given my high regard for Richard, I'm surprised he didn't do that himself before publication. He must realize that anecdotal success is not enough evidence to conclude that the system is a path to high probability trading and future wealth. I sincerely hope that Richard will see the humor in the situation and forgive me for delivering such bad news. N. Actually Richard did post a request here sometime in early November asking for pre-publication feedback. I believe Anitya communicated with him. Richard will be back, he assures me.
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Post by Norbert on Dec 2, 2022 8:48:29 GMT
Ah! Then it's my mistake for missing his request. Didn't spot it.
By the way, it's possible that my analysis is faulty. Though that's unlikely, as I'm never wrong. Once I thought I might be wrong, but that was a mistake.
Richard shouldn't give up on this. I've never given up on getting a date with Scarlett. Unfortunately, the restraining order issued by a Los Angeles judge makes it more challenging to get in touch with her now.
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Post by acksurf on Dec 2, 2022 13:27:13 GMT
Ah! Then it's my mistake for missing his request. Didn't spot it. By the way, it's possible that my analysis is faulty. Though that's unlikely, as I'm never wrong. Once I thought I might be wrong, but that was a mistake. Richard shouldn't give up on this. I've never given up on getting a date with Scarlett. Unfortunately, the restraining order issued by a Los Angeles judge makes it more challenging to get in touch with her now. I hope you're also staying in Boris' good graces!
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Post by Chahta on Dec 2, 2022 13:33:19 GMT
It is my impression that Richard has a substantial portfolio, being successful at investing. He has a system that works for him as many do here. Others get reviewed whether they request it or not, simply by posting. Richard chose to not be anonymous. Good for him.
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Post by bizman on Dec 2, 2022 19:27:51 GMT
I have hesitated to jump in here, but I figured I'd give my $.02. I bought the book on Amazon and read it almost immediately. It was an entertaining read. As I know next to nothing about trading successfully, I couldn't really judge anything other than that Richard has high confidence in his system, which seems to makes sense at least on the surface, and it is fairly clear he has been successful with it.
I applaud Richard for having the guts to write down and share his methods. At the same time, I appreciate Norbert doing analysis that I would be incapable of doing. The last thing I would think anyone would want would be a bunch of lame brains like me diving into trying to implement Richard's system without his judgment, experience, and nuanced knowledge about the whole thing. Such as how and when to know if/when things had changed and the system might need a tweek or an overhaul or a re-think.
I like and respect both Norbert and Richard. I thank them both for their generosity with their time and effort. Hope we can all get along and keep this community going.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 6, 2022 22:25:49 GMT
FWIW, I'm calmer.
Used my time-out for some serious reflection and conclude N had a point. i WAS too elated to see the book launch and probably was overly enthusiastic about the method. Not to say I agree entirely. Still feel his "don't publish" and "unethical" comments were too far -- but was OK with his viewpoint right up until until you-know -who piled on. I also feel he shortchanged my MANY long and detailed "on the other hand" passages praising index buy-and-hold as an alternative for people who have little interest in trading. Third, I feel he undervalues the benefit of giving beginners a clear roadmap to prevent them from flailing about as so many rookies start out. Fourth I feel he is unfair calling my vehicle selection process subjective. I clearly write I search for likely candidates and count the number of P-SAR reversal signals I find in a six-month period. Something like 99% of the securities I screen don't make the cut.
Anyway, am working hard, revising the book with the comments I've read here on BB in mind. (A) am greatly toning down my confident enthusiasm that DVolT WILL work to "CAN work" (B) am specifying disclaimer boiler plate in at least two places that I am not giving investment advice, but throwing out some personal thoughts and lessons that some readers may (or may not) wish to consider and test. (C) I clearly state I am not a certified professional in any way. -- and so on. As for demands of "more robust rigor", I will disappoint. It won;t be the first time.
, I'm cutting my posting time-out shorter than I intended b/c I assured another poster who was kind enough to message me, that I WOULD post if I felt anything important occurred in the market -- and something has. Am getting some big "sell" technicals popping up. So I took gains on 2/3 my positions in PGP and BRK-B. Sold half of AOM, also for gain, and added again to TLT. (That position is getting very big.) See what rest of week brings.
Those Pimco ponies paid off in silver dollars. With half my PV there, will have a good December, barring a faceplant. My guess: a sharp ex-div drop and then a nice January rally. Am holding, as I can see nothing better than a 10-15% net distribution in the IRA . Of course, I'm not supposed to HAVE opinions, so...
Finally, regrets for my outburst and for any dismay I caused. Am feeling sheepish about it. Was probably posting too often anyway. I read years ago (but forget where) that the consolation of looking ridiculous is that your real friends will smile and forgive generously .
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Post by Chahta on Dec 6, 2022 23:03:03 GMT
Ha! Not much of a timeout. You have done what 99.99999% of us here could not do.
You did see the special dist. for PIMCO CEFs, right?
I feel your sell signals could be correct. I read elsewhere that bad things happen below the 200 DMA (S&P500).
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Post by Capital on Dec 6, 2022 23:20:08 GMT
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Post by archer on Dec 7, 2022 1:00:20 GMT
IMO if a published trading system is successful 50-60% of the time, it is in the ballpark of many TA recipes. I don't see a reason to hold Richard to the standards many posts here have seemed to do, and accusations of lacking ethics are off the mark given the fallibility of TA on the whole. The bar for TA is really not very high, otherwise more people would be richer. Also success must be evaluated within the context of intent. To my knowledge no TA has a consistent track record of BOTH greater returns AND less volatility than the broad market indexes.
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Post by anitya on Dec 12, 2022 5:42:31 GMT
richardsok, Glad to see you back. I was off social media for a week and just caught up BB. While I was off, you guys discussed weddings, old age (LTC), deaths (Covid), and everything in between. While admittedly I have not reviewed the trading aspects of the book, trading profitably low volatility instruments using T/A tools is more widely done than written down or admitted publicly. Even if the trading system suggested in the book becomes less effective over time (or at times), I would keep working towards publishing the book as there are a lot of good things in it than just a trading system. As a proof in the pudding, you post your trades contemporaneously and from my memory, your hit rate is pretty good. So, you making your process available to others is a good service.
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Post by Norbert on Dec 12, 2022 19:32:44 GMT
richardsokGood post. As said offline, I've got no doubts about your trading skills and never questioned your personal trading success. It's very cool that you're willing to post trades in real time. However, developing a rule-based trading system that others can reliably execute is extremely challenging, if not impossible, IMHO. Thousands have tried, including Yours Truly. I've also gotten excited about some ideas that backtested quite nicely against certain ETFs, but for some reason didn't produce good results going forward. I'm not in the camp that argues market timing isn't doable. I firmly believe there are moments when going overweight risky assets is smart; and other times when the opposite is true. The 2020 Covid crash followed by anouncements regarding monetary and fiscal stimulus was clearly a moment to go "all in"; early 2022, with high valuations, toppy charts, and anouncements about monetary tightening was clearly a time to take profits or "rebalance". Right now? Who knows? Valuations are better and pressures for monetary tightening may be diminishing. Yet we could get an economic slowdown and lower corporate profits; Time to take a neutral stance? I digress. My point is that certain tools can work beautifully in the hands of the master, but won't work so well in the hands of the apprentice. 😁 🇦🇺
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Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 16, 2022 22:58:20 GMT
Anyone who puts their work out in public is already a winner due to the strength of their convictions. I have YET to read richardsok book, but I look forward to it. Take care and happy holidaze, - RM.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 17, 2022 0:39:26 GMT
Thank you, rm.
It probably won't satisfy him, but I haven't yet explained to Norbert how far I have moved over to his line of thinking. The beauty of Kindle is that it allows you to make substantial revisions almost pain-free. Once the revisions are done, one just has to re-format the book, and that is what I am doing now.
After much thought of remarks made here on BB and elsewhere, I have greatly toned down my expressions of confident enthusiasm and suggest my method be used with only a small part of one's portfolio, at least at first. I claim my method HAS worked for me and CAN work, not that it WILL work. (2) I look into the alternative of applying a far-longer technical time frame to make the method much closer to buy-and hold, applying a two-year chart and slower signals onto DVolT securities. (But there are pros & cons to consider.) (3) I outline the historic success of buy-and-hold and introduce the arguments of those who have done back-testing that supports the theory it is superior to my method, HOWEVER..... (4) I claim that if the market continues upward indefinitely with no major bear mkt ahead, back testing, as it has been shown to me, seems to claim Buy-and-Hold will outpace DVolT by a relatively small amount – but if there is indeed a major bear market ahead, I suggest DVolT method should prove a great benefit for wealth preservation. (IOW, I'm theorizing the DVolT investor MAY have somewhat smaller gains if I am wrong, but much better wealth preservation if I am right.) (5) I have outlined counter-arguments. Of course, this assumes the B&H investor will stick to his guns no matter what hellacious terrors are afoot in the market – but we all know many investors are vulnerable to fear, frequently at the worst possible moments. (6) I put in a clear disclaimer that I am not a certified investment advisor and that my theory might be regarded as an informal conversation to consider, but in no way should it be understood as financial or investing advice. (7) I have improved the white space, especially in the early pages so the meaning flows more clearly.
The revised kindle version should be out next week. (The formatter is dragging his heels. Sigh.) I think it's a better book for having gone through the wringer. I will happily EM an attachment with the new version to anyone who has mentioned buying the first version before this post has gone up. Just message me your EM address and I will get the revised raw manuscript out to you when it's ready. No charge, of course.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 17, 2022 19:15:26 GMT
richardsok, Thanks! I'll wait for the new version and pay for it myself. As someone that works in creative property, I like to support my colleagues. Happy Holidays, - RM
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gina
Ensign
Posts: 1
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Post by gina on Mar 4, 2023 10:18:05 GMT
I would love to read the book, but what's the name of it?
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Post by chang on Mar 4, 2023 12:38:07 GMT
gina MEMOS from the Stock Trader's Notebook: Ruling the Markets From Mayhem to Mastery a.co/d/ei58bFR
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