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Post by uncleharley on Feb 11, 2021 13:25:15 GMT
The price of sugar is trending up. Party on!
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 11, 2021 16:31:06 GMT
I reopened a position in SILJ this A M. It should be good for at least a short run-up and possibly more if the Robinhood boyz don't get too greedy.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 12, 2021 15:10:12 GMT
SILJ had a rough open, but recovered quickly. It is above 15.50 now, If it breaks 15.75 we could be in for a nice ride up.
Edit: It is breaking for higher ground.
Edit: Set my stop at 15.50
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Post by anitya on Feb 18, 2021 21:01:13 GMT
Quite unusual to be buying a downtrend - down about 16% in a downtrend over at least the past six months. I am not able to follow what you guys are doing. what downtrends??GDX is trending above its 200 day Moving Average, and sits right above its 50 day MA. Yes, it has had a slow pullback last few months...but not in a downtrend. Good time for first-bucket buys. SLV sits well above both the 200 dayMA and 50 dayMA. Remember Pyramid Up is a buying strategy, once you start buying. OK to buy a fund after a bear market, if and when you consider a "compelling value" is reached, for the first bucket buy. From then on, however, P-Up. If six months or more pass without any further buy actions, start over! R48 R48, In your rules re to the above italicized text, I am trying to get a sense for your sensitivity and preferences - I am not trying to trick you or save this post to negatively ascribe. Consider the following: Index drops to $85 from $100, one thinks it is a compelling value and buys the first bucket. Bad luck and it drops to $77 and I presume one should not buy. Then it goes up to $81, does one buy the second bucket or wait until price goes up above $85? Let us assume instead price zig zags after the first bucket and drops to $50. At what price does one execute the remaining buckets on the way up? Thanks.
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 18, 2021 22:33:25 GMT
what downtrends??GDX is trending above its 200 day Moving Average, and sits right above its 50 day MA. Yes, it has had a slow pullback last few months...but not in a downtrend. Good time for first-bucket buys. SLV sits well above both the 200 dayMA and 50 dayMA. Remember Pyramid Up is a buying strategy, once you start buying. OK to buy a fund after a bear market, if and when you consider a "compelling value" is reached, for the first bucket buy. From then on, however, P-Up. If six months or more pass without any further buy actions, start over! R48 R48, In your rules re to the above italicized text, I am trying to get a sense for your sensitivity and preferences - I am not trying to trick you or save this post to negatively ascribe. Consider the following: Index drops to $85 from $100, one thinks it is a compelling value and buys the first bucket. Bad luck and it drops to $77 and I presume one should not buy. R48 in bold...yes, do not buy more. Then it goes up to $81, does one buy the second bucket or wait until price goes up above $85? I would not buy more...need to assess why the first buy did not work out. However, if the Moving Averages were at lets say 80, and the price is strongly going above to the upside...then maybe a buy. But I generally wait. Also time period is a factor...discussed below.
Let us assume instead price zig zags after the first bucket and drops to $50. At what price does one execute the remaining buckets on the way up? It is highly unlikely I will buy the second bucket. The fund by definition was/is in a downtrend. However, if a long time period occurs, such as six months, one may forget that first bucket and "start over." Like...depends on what the overall market did...was it down 50%, and the fund is thus relatively strong?
Final note...let's consider GDX today. My first bucket did not work out well. In fact, GDX now has nav below 200 day MA and 50 day MA. I WILL BUY EXACTLY--NO MORE! No ifs, ands or buts. I will wait. SLV is trending sideways and I may buy second bucket if it gets going above previous breakout point. Also suggests SLV may be better than GDX in the long run. I will keep accumulating the best performer.
R48 in bold
Thanks.
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Post by anitya on Feb 19, 2021 4:48:08 GMT
Thanks, R48.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 20, 2021 16:22:54 GMT
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 21, 2021 1:57:31 GMT
Thanks for link, uh.
R48
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 4, 2021 15:42:59 GMT
My morning review of my daily charts showed that the Bullish percent of Gold Miners has dropped to the 30% area. This level of bearishness has historically been where one can begin to use that indicator as a contrarian indication. A look at the daily charts for GDX shows that it has dropped to the 50% FIBO retracement level on GDX which coincides with a volume based support level. Apparently we are approaching a level that should mark the end of the current correction in gold miners, while silver is continuing its consolidation. Does anyone else think this is probably a buying opportunity for gold & silver? stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p88285227766&a=413536763&listNum=86
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 8, 2021 17:59:41 GMT
Glad I limited an initial buy of GDX to one bucket. By Pyramid Up rules I should not have bought any more. I didn't.
Giving serious consideration to not using any gold or miners for future contrarian investing. Bitcoin fell, and gold/and gold miners did not rise. Market fell, gold fell. I suspect impact of bitcoin too great for now, promoters having convinced many people it is a better inflation hedge than gold.
R48
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Post by chang on Mar 27, 2021 7:44:51 GMT
Is gold putting in a bottom?
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 27, 2021 13:55:55 GMT
Is gold putting in a bottom? stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p18558515173&a=427277745&listNum=86 I see no technical reason to think a bottom is being established at this time, however I do see a strong probability that a handle is being formed on the cup pattern which has been developed over the past 7 yrs or so. A reasonable target for the bottom of that handle is near $1500.00 per ounce, maybe 1520. This is a projection, not a prediction.
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Post by chang on Mar 28, 2021 2:38:22 GMT
Thanks uncleharley, I suppose that means you would be quick to sell on a downturn from here.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 28, 2021 13:29:11 GMT
I am out of precious metals at this time. In part because of seasonal & technical factors and in part because I had a use for some additional dividend income. A technical factor that has not been talked about very much is the apparent bottoming of the USD. Its value has bounced nicely off a 3 yr old support line and has formed a double bottom. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p99471201921&a=412594802&listNum=86 Without a tailwind that a declining dollar would provide and with negative seasonal factors it is my thought that precious metals and most other commodities will have a tough time advancing over the intermediate term. A stable CRB index confirms this idea. My current portfolio is focused on pipelines & energy thru a large position in KMI, Utilities & Infrastructure thru UTG & smaller positions in BDC's. I am waiting for more GDP data, but my thinking is leaning toward a period of stable growth for most of U S industry.
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Post by anitya on Mar 28, 2021 18:46:01 GMT
Hi uncleharley, I agree that as Bitcoin becomes more widely available to purchase (e.g., ETFs), it will put pressure on metals that are traditionally used as defensive (risk off) assets / inflation hedges. Until the shine comes off crypto, the opportunity cost for staying on the sidelines of precious metals is minimal. How do you generally access BDCs? Through funds or individual stocks or BDC bonds? Do you mind sharing your current favorites? Re UTG, do you mind sharing your thesis? Thanks. A
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Post by chang on Mar 29, 2021 3:18:41 GMT
I am out of precious metals at this time. In part because of seasonal & technical factors and in part because I had a use for some additional dividend income. A technical factor that has not been talked about very much is the apparent bottoming of the USD. Its value has bounced nicely off a 3 yr old support line and has formed a double bottom. I think this bears watching. I see plenty of drivers that will weaken the USD relative to other important currencies, and few drivers that will do the opposite. That is why I have a healthy foreign stock allocation, and am also ready to buy gold. We should re-visit this perhaps once a quarter.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 29, 2021 16:38:29 GMT
"Re UTG, do you mind sharing your thesis?" I really don't have a thesis on UTG. I like it because, as a CEF, it can use leverage to increase its returns. A long term chart of an Utility index indicates that they are are stable enough to lend themselves well to long term leverage. UTG currently pays a 6.5% dividend which I feel in great in the current investment enviroement. It has not missed a dividend in more than 10 yrs. Consequently it makes a nice fit for my portfolio.
RE: The value of the USD. I can do a post on the value of the USD when the qtr ends.
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Post by uncleharley on May 6, 2021 23:43:16 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on May 11, 2021 14:52:36 GMT
I see a buying opportunity developing in the precious metals. Late afternoon maybe.
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Post by uncleharley on May 17, 2021 16:14:04 GMT
If anyone is interested, todays high volume break suggests silver is going to $50.00 per ounce this yr.
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Post by uncleharley on May 25, 2021 20:30:00 GMT
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Post by chang on May 25, 2021 22:40:47 GMT
I don't quite get it. The article says (several times) that what drives gold prices up is printing money, not inflation. But aren't those two closely correlated?
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Post by richardsok on May 26, 2021 0:25:19 GMT
I don't quite get it. The article says (several times) that what drives gold prices up is printing money, not inflation. But aren't those two closely correlated? Of COURSE they're correlated. Intimately. KITCO's putting out gobbledygook.
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Post by yogibearbull on May 26, 2021 20:56:43 GMT
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Post by chang on May 26, 2021 23:50:21 GMT
I'm surprised there wasn't better security, especially with Singapore Airlines. If they had tried snatching gold bars in Singapore they wouldn't be able to sit down for a month.
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