|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jan 29, 2021 20:18:05 GMT
Reportedly the Robinhood platform is urging its members to go long on Precious metals, especially silver and gold and their related miners & ETFs. This has caused the run up in prices of the past two days. I am a long term bull on precious metals however this would seem to be a poor time to enter the market. My thought is to wait until the pump has run dry at Robinhood, then let the prices drop until a bottom is apparent. That should be a good entry point.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 29, 2021 20:28:34 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 29, 2021 23:36:58 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 30, 2021 3:12:18 GMT
Oh well, the commodity boom story has been downgraded from cover to feature, and a story on GameStop/GME related craziness is the new cover story. The Barron's issue has now gone to press.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 31, 2021 23:48:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 1, 2021 0:42:58 GMT
I respect uh's point about waiting to see a bottom forming, but I plan to continue DCAing into SGOL with a fixed amount each month, barring any obvious silliness from WSB. Besides being an inflation hedge, I have heard arguments suggesting that other upward drivers for commodities may come into play.
Interestingly I read that if all the gold mined in human history were formed into a solid cube, it would measure 70 feet on a side.
|
|
|
|
Post by Karen on Feb 1, 2021 0:54:42 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by ignatz on Feb 1, 2021 7:34:20 GMT
Interestingly I read that if all the gold mined in human history were formed into a solid cube, it would measure 70 feet on a side. Maybe 10 years ago, I read the tonnage total for all gold mined in history.
Having nothing better to do for a few minutes, I calculated that it would be only about 67 feet tall if placed in a cube on an NBA basketball court. Hard to believe both then and now, but it comports with what you read.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 1, 2021 11:54:11 GMT
Overnight Strong price action in silver, platinum, palladium futures. So-so in gold futures. Oil futures are up but natural-gas futures are flying - that could be due to big snow storms in the Midwest and East. Some PM complex bounce could be due to WSB/Reddit and Barron's inside-cover story on commodities. The derivatives market for PMs is many times bigger than the physical market. But the narrative that traders can squeeze/corner that market like thinly traded small-caps may be wishful thinking. Equity futures action was wild. First down big, then up big. Mini SP500 futures were in the range 3,656.50-3,751.25, +/- 1.28% from the mid-point of the range. www.cmegroup.com/ www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/ |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 1, 2021 16:42:14 GMT
Of interest is the reddit call to add to PHYSICALLY POSSESSED SILVER.
One dealer who specializes in this stated over the weekend he completely sold out of his silver on hand.
I love this, as I did a lot of buying (and possessing to today) of silver coins in the 1970's, in range of $1.35 to $3.35/oz. Storage a hassle, as one needs to do special things to keep from theft, etc...which I have done. Diversified storage places a must. Note the Wall St. Journal gives a daily quote for a thousand dollar bag of "junk silver coins", under CASH PRICES. New quotes will be interesting. Over the years, I did NOT include this in my asset allocation and portfolio calculations. (Just like I did not keep three houses in the portfolio calcs).
R48
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 2, 2021 16:35:49 GMT
The U.S. government said that it is keeping an eye on the silver market as swarms retail investors have been trying to drive prices higher. After forcing short squeezes in stocks Gamestop, AMC and Blackberry, last week retail investors, organized through social media, set their sights on the silver market. The intense focus on the precious metal has driven up silver exchange-traded products, miners and the commodity futures. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said late Monday; it will be watching the silver market closely. “The CFTC is closely monitoring recent activity in the silver markets,” said Acting Chairman Behnam. “The Commission is communicating with fellow regulators, the exchanges, and stakeholders to address any potential threats to the integrity of the derivatives markets for silver, and remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation.” Monday, March silver futures rose to nearly an eight-year high above $30.00 an ounce. However, as some analysts have warned, the market has been unable to maintain the early momentum. In a volatile selloff Tuesday, the silver market has given up nearly all of Monday’s gains. March silver futures last traded at $26.97 an ounce, down more than 8% on the day.
This will probably dampen the enthusiasm for silver for a while. |
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 2, 2021 19:36:02 GMT
Interesting that $VIX has also fallen along with GME, SILJ. So, have the options market distortions affected VIX, as some have alleged? Following is 1-day chart. Anything like 1-month is overwhelmed by GME action. Chart may default to 1-year after a while. LINK |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 4, 2021 16:05:58 GMT
I am not sure what that spike in the VIX means except that it may be just a passing aberration or it might be a sign of the times that we live in. Another aberration that I hope passes is on www.kitcosilver.com/ This morning. They have two prognostications about the price of silver published this A M. They were published about 1.5 hrs apart and seem to contradict each other on the future price of silver. My conclusion is that we will see some volatility, posssibly unlike any that we have seen before. OBTW, If anyone is wondering where the strength of the USD is coming from, take a look at the Japanese Yen. Remember that the value of any major currencey is as measured against other currencies. The current situation may be indicating that the USD is not necessarily strong in absolute terms, only in comparative terms. |
|
|
|
Post by bb2 on Feb 9, 2021 0:14:24 GMT
The dreaded Barron's cover curse.  |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 9, 2021 14:11:27 GMT
The dreaded Barron's cover curse. LOL. Gold and Silver futures are pointing up this A M. The writers at KITCO are expecting a ralley in the precious metals as well as continued price increases in other commodities.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 9, 2021 14:19:13 GMT
Train has to stop to pickup passengers. If it keeps running all the time, it may just be empty  . Maintaining GDX exposure with initial target in 50s. |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 9, 2021 15:12:24 GMT
Wooo, WOOOOO!! Chugga, Chugga, Chugga! Meet you at the next station.
|
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 9, 2021 20:45:10 GMT
Train has to stop to pickup passengers. If it keeps running all the time, it may just be empty . Maintaining GDX exposure with initial target in 50s. I had my youngest daughter (40ish) buy her first bucket in GDX a couple weeks ago. Will pyramid up. R48 |
|
|
|
Post by javajoe on Feb 10, 2021 2:05:29 GMT
What is the best way to get PM exposure if most of your assets are in tax-advantaged accounts, given the tax implications?
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 10, 2021 2:24:27 GMT
What is the best way to get PM exposure if most of your assets are in tax-advantaged accounts, given the tax implications? Beware that bullion ETFs such as GLD, IAU, SLV are taxed as collectibles in taxable accounts, but are permitted in IRAs [i.e. prohibitions for collectibles don't apply to them]. Meaning, there is an issue in taxable accounts, but not in tax-deferred accounts. No such complications apply to gold-mining ETFs such as GDX, GDXJ. But they are much more volatile. Then, Canadian bullion closed-end funds such as CEF [yes, that is a ticker] have complicated PFIC issues. |
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 10, 2021 3:03:45 GMT
yogibearbull: "Beware that bullion ETFs such as GLD, IAU, SLV are taxed as collectibles in taxable accounts" Can you please expound? Do you mean a CG tax when I sell? These ETFs pay no dividends and have no turnover, so I assume there are no taxes of any kind until I sell.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 10, 2021 3:07:47 GMT
yogibearbull : "Beware that bullion ETFs such as GLD, IAU, SLV are taxed as collectibles in taxable accounts" Can you please expound? Do you mean a CG tax when I sell? These ETFs pay no dividends and have no turnover, so I assume there are no taxes of any kind until I sell. Yes, on CGs when you sell. www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409"The tax rate on most net capital gain is no higher than 15% for most individuals. Some or all net capital gain may be taxed at 0% if your taxable income is less than $80,000. A capital gain rate of 15% applies if your taxable income is $80,000 or more but less than $441,450 for single; $496,600 for married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er); $469,050 for head of household, or $248,300 for married filing separately. However, a net capital gain tax rate of 20% applies to the extent that your taxable income exceeds the thresholds set for the 15% capital gain rate. There are a few other exceptions where capital gains may be taxed at rates greater than 20%: The taxable part of a gain from selling section 1202 qualified small business stock is taxed at a maximum 28% rate. Net capital gains from selling collectibles (such as coins or art) are taxed at a maximum 28% rate. The portion of any unrecaptured section 1250 gain from selling section 1250 real property is taxed at a maximum 25% rate." |
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 10, 2021 3:09:41 GMT
I can see why some people prefer to buy Krugerrands (or the highly liquid, 1oz-gold coins made by the US, UK, Canada, China, and Mexico, if I recall correctly) and just keep them off the record books.
|
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Feb 10, 2021 3:15:29 GMT
Train has to stop to pickup passengers. If it keeps running all the time, it may just be empty . Maintaining GDX exposure with initial target in 50s. I had my youngest daughter (40ish) buy her first bucket in GDX a couple weeks ago. Will pyramid up. R48 Quite unusual to be buying a downtrend - down about 16% in a downtrend over at least the past six months. I am not able to follow what you guys are doing. |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 10, 2021 12:50:28 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 10, 2021 18:49:33 GMT
I had my youngest daughter (40ish) buy her first bucket in GDX a couple weeks ago. Will pyramid up. R48 Quite unusual to be buying a downtrend - down about 16% in a downtrend over at least the past six months. I am not able to follow what you guys are doing. GDX is trending above its 200 day Moving Average, and sits right above its 50 day MA. Yes, it has had a slow pullback last few months...but not in a downtrend. Good time for first-bucket buys. SLV sits well above both the 200 dayMA and 50 dayMA. Remember Pyramid Up is a buying strategy, once you start buying. OK to buy a fund after a bear market, if and when you consider a "compelling value" is reached, for the first bucket buy. From then on, however, P-Up. If six months or more pass without any further buy actions, start over! R48 |
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Feb 10, 2021 21:29:47 GMT
Quite unusual to be buying a downtrend - down about 16% in a downtrend over at least the past six months. I am not able to follow what you guys are doing. GDX is trending above its 200 day Moving Average, and sits right above its 50 day MA. Yes, it has had a slow pullback last few months...but not in a downtrend. Good time for first-bucket buys. SLV sits well above both the 200 dayMA and 50 dayMA. Remember Pyramid Up is a buying strategy, once you start buying. OK to buy a fund after a bear market, if and when you consider a "compelling value" is reached, for the first bucket buy. From then on, however, P-Up. If six months or more pass without any further buy actions, start over! R48 I used stockcharts. On the daily chart, I even used exponential average without any success to see current price above either 50 or 200 day average. May be you are using weekly charts but your RSI and MACD are so underwhelming. Noted your scheme of buying which does not require an uptrend price for the first buy. |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 11, 2021 0:04:36 GMT
Hi anitya...yes, I was set on weekly in stockcharts. I do see that in "daily" the NAV is a little below 200MA, and right on the 50 MA.
But what I see in the chart is the 50 MA SLOPE has turned upward; the 200MA SLOPE has not turned downward (a confirmation of downtrend), and the low of the past two weeks trading is ABOVE the previous low in late November. Each of these indicates a potential upturn, off of 6 months of slow decline. So I liked the chart, and the story, and bought some. I was also hoping the reddit gang would run miners or gold much higher--did not happen. (But word is, it is happening in MJ!)
Final note: investing in gold or silver is different than investing in a company (stock) or stock fund. For they can never go "bankrupt"...they are commodities. So a downtrend is less feared. They will not go to zero.
Just some observations.
R48
|
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 11, 2021 0:28:31 GMT
Final note: investing in gold or silver is different than investing in a company (stock) or stock fund. For they can never go "bankrupt"...they are commodities. So a downtrend is less feared. They will not go to zero. Well, yes and no. There are existential risks to PMs and commodities, too. With particle accelerators and tokamaks, we may be able one day to synthesize gold and platinum in the laboratory. Or a couple of asteroids might collide and kick this one toward the Earth. Imagine waking up one day and finding an asteroid in your backyard worth $700 quintillion? That's $700 million million million, or $700,000,000,000,000,000,000. Some commodities will fall out of favor and usage for cultural reasons, and lose permanent value (tobacco, sugar...). |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 11, 2021 0:46:46 GMT
Final note: investing in gold or silver is different than investing in a company (stock) or stock fund. For they can never go "bankrupt"...they are commodities. So a downtrend is less feared. They will not go to zero. Well, yes and no. There are existential risks to PMs and commodities, too. With particle accelerators and tokamaks, we may be able one day to synthesize gold and platinum in the laboratory. Or a couple of asteroids might collide and kick this one toward the Earth. Imagine waking up one day and finding an asteroid in your backyard worth $700 quintillion? That's $700 million million million, or $700,000,000,000,000,000,000. Some commodities will fall out of favor and usage for cultural reasons, and lose permanent value (tobacco, sugar...). You are right. GE learned how to make diamonds, but it stayed away from wrecking the intrinsic diamond market. Used them for industrial purposes. Yes, Elon Musk may bring back a ton of gold on one of his space ventures! And if you keep money under a pillow, you have the risk of fire, theft, and like the elderly couple who threw out an old mattress with $200,000 cash in it (they got it back). R48 |
|
. Maintaining GDX exposure with initial target in 50s.
