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Post by johnsmith on Aug 24, 2022 14:20:28 GMT
considering:
This is Britain and the rest of Europe is facing similar issues.
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 24, 2022 14:26:17 GMT
No. Look at the GDP growth rate. According to FT two days ago, Britain is having an inflation rate of 18.6%. If the economies do not grow, how can their stock prices grow? Of course, if the companies invest outside the Europe and make money, probably.
I got out of Europe more than a decade ago, and all foreign ETFs 6 years ago. When our own companies earn more 40% from other countries, why do you need them anyway?
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Post by bb2 on Aug 24, 2022 15:36:24 GMT
Almost completely out of DODFX. Only bought it 10 years ago because a buddy is a market maker for Dodge & Cox. Europe = crappy banks. Nothing else. For example, take home improvement retail - Watched Kingfisher for a long time - HD is up 1400% since 2003 and KGFHY is down 10%. (I always check out hardware stores when I travel.) Or UL v PG. Or VGK v SPY. No contest. EU GDP growth seems to spend most of the time short of the US. statisticstimes.com/economy/united-states-vs-eu-economy.php
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Post by johnsmith on Aug 24, 2022 16:12:59 GMT
Thanks for the link, useful information.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Aug 24, 2022 17:14:50 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Aug 24, 2022 17:28:48 GMT
considering:
This is Britain and the rest of Europe is facing similar issues.
Another raving Far-Left screed. If Britons and Euros are to be energy-poor, who exactly was it who demanded a long and steady policy of shutting down nuclear power? If we talk about THE BIG LIE, who (for YEARS!) fed out the incessant drumbeat that we could be prosperous and comfortable on wind and solar alone? The West took a good idea (conservation policies for clean air and water with increased efficiency in IC engines and nat gas) and turned it into this Frankenstein of energy self-destruction. But of course, virtue-signalers are never responsible for anything.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Aug 24, 2022 17:46:47 GMT
Still, I contend there is money to be made in Europe. Maybe IRELAND, in particular. Remember the reports before Brexit was "finalized" kinda sorta? Big banks were re-locating to Dublin to be able to stay in the EU and benefit from its ease of international commerce, together with the continent. The "Northern Ireland Protocol" is a hot mess, I know. The whole border thing, not only between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but the water border with the island of Britain next-door, across the Irish Sea. Lots of protests, bottlenecks. It's nuts. But with companies domiciled within the Republic, things are simpler. I'm thinking of The Kerry Group. Mentioned here at BB before. ...When Ireland's economy tanked in the late '00 period (real estate bust,) the government's austerity plan included the creation of the nationally-based IRISH WATER utility. There were howls from the public when it began. Reading their annual report (.pdf linked) it looks like a 100% public, gov't-run, rate-payer-supported utility--- along with gummint subsidies. But reading the report, it sounds like signals are clearly being sent that IRISH WATER will sooner or later want to take money from investors, whether via a bond-float, or the creation of publicly-traded stocks. ("...acquire the necessary capital at favorable rates..."). That's just something to keep your eye on. www.water.ie/docs/WSSP-Investment.pdfList of Ireland ADRs: topforeignstocks.com/foreign-adrs-list/the-full-list-of-ireland-adrs/******************************** Europe needs to get a handle on immigration from Africa/Middle East, if it's not already too late. D. Murray's book was an eye-opener for me. No one can afford to be blindly anti-immigration. But the task of mainstreaming immigrants in Europe has not been done with any effectiveness at all. And in the name of "toleration" a great deal of awful shit has been allowed to go on. And why do so many from those other places want to get into Europe? Same reason that so many want to get into the USA from down south. Too many of those places are just plain failed states, "shit-hole" countries. Corrupt governments or drug cartels in charge, or street gangs in charge. It's a blot on humanity. How to fix it? There's no easy answers, and no immediate solution. Like asking, "how do we revive the Church in 2022?" Too much junk has transpired and become rooted and spread and even institutionalized. Look at Lebanon. Inconceivable, how far they've fallen. The end of their civil war in 1990 was supposed to be a good, new start. Dreadful over there now. One last thing. The US is in decline, too. Part of that is common knowledge. We are not any longer the only ones standing pretty much intact, post-WW II. And Tricky Dicky killed Bretton Woods. ("Dick Nixon! Before he dicks YOU!") The dollar is still the world's currency. But our debt burden is completely cuckoo nuts. Infrastructure is simply falling apart, day after day. And on and on.
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 24, 2022 19:31:37 GMT
I find more compelling opportunities outside of US now than before... still trying to figure out if I want to "bite."
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Post by Chahta on Aug 24, 2022 19:52:51 GMT
considering:
This is Britain and the rest of Europe is facing similar issues.
Another raving Far-Left screed. If Britons and Euros are to be energy-poor, who exactly was it who demanded a long and steady policy of shutting down nuclear power? If we talk about THE BIG LIE, who (for YEARS!) fed out the incessant drumbeat that we could be prosperous and comfortable on wind and solar alone? The West took a good idea (conservation policies for clean air and water with increased efficiency in IC engines and nat gas) and turned it into this Frankenstein of energy self-destruction. But of course, virtue-signalers are never responsible for anything. Yep, it's happening here too. Indeed, how fast can a society collapse?'
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 24, 2022 20:32:20 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 25, 2022 13:00:27 GMT
For over 10 years. - international is coming back. I'm still waiting. - US stocks % as part of the global stocks will continue shrinking. They actually grew. - You must be diversified. No, you don't.
- International valuation is cheaper...mmm...same as above. - in the next a few years, with all the global mess, do you want to own international? Not so much. I prefer to own US LC. Remember, 40% of the SP500 revenues come from abroad. - The Dollar is getting strong Remember, the easiest way is to invest in better categories. None of the top high-tech companies in the world by revenue are from Europe (link), reread it please. If you want to own international, I would look at Asia. Europe is dying for years already, capitalism isn't perfect but it's better than Europe. Even Germany, the strongest economy, is struggling. On paper, Germany vehicles seems great, it's true compare to other European companies but they can't compete on price+reliability with Japanese+Koreans. Then, came Tesla and crushed bypass German ingenuity. Many, from a certain party, look at Europe as a much better system, I suggest you move there, but you better have a lot of money. Eventually, you run out of other people money. About 3 years ago, I was arguing on another site that Apple is a great company, the "smartest" posters on that site claimed that Apple is just another blue chip company. In 3 years, Apple made over 170% more than the SP500( link). If you can find great companies in Europe, you can find them in the US. BTW, Buffett refused to buy high-tech for decades but he redeemed himself with Apple (Apple is about 42% of his stock portfolio).
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 25, 2022 14:07:42 GMT
FD "Many, from a certain party, look at Europe as a much better system, I suggest you move there, but you better have a lot of money. Eventually, you run out of other people money. "
LOL. You are on a roll again, but I think that "certain kind of people" not "certain party." I strongly believe that it is bipartisan, both sides.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 17:14:35 GMT
I don't know if anyone read the OP's article? But - IF you believe Umair - who is somewhat reputable - there should be a mass uprising and revolt in the UK by mid January - given how winters go there. I didn't read the article carefully - so apologies if I got it wrong. Seems to me the intent is to over exaggerate to get a reaction.
What it has to do with whether one would invest in the UK or Europe - don't know. I am and will continue to do so - not based on the imminent collapse of the government as it cruelly forsakes its citizens to the UK winters. No right answer here. Depends on allocation plan and investing horizon, long term world economic view, and expected returns in parts thereof.
I have 20% of equities in international - most in developed.
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 25, 2022 17:35:52 GMT
"The old developed world" is under-developed or even worse than that, now. The so-called emerging market is the "new developed world." It is all upside down.
People need to get real. Look at the GDP growth rates of countries, and new ranking of the world economies.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 18:09:40 GMT
I don't believe I know more than the markets.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Aug 25, 2022 18:55:04 GMT
A long term investing plan will hinge upon how accurate one's Big Picture assessments are. Unless you're day-trading, in and out and in and out and in and out and in and out. Remind you of anything?
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Post by bb2 on Aug 25, 2022 19:02:24 GMT
A bit OT but I thought this was a good, quick cover of the complicated history of the decisions by Germany to partner with Russia over energy, going back to 1970. (Since energy was up front in the OP's link.) www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/germany-dependence-russian-energy-gas-oil-nord-streamEdit: And yea, that OP link by Umair, did seem a bit screedy. Ridiculous, even. I live in US so have no clue but will be in UK next spring for a visit. Should be interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 19:16:42 GMT
UK has ~4% allocation in developed world index. I am guessing Apple has same weight as UK. So if I allocate 4-5% to UK (unhedged) in my portfolio with currency fluctuation and all what difference would it make either way? if UK is less than 5% allocation in ones portfolio it is rather meaningless.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 25, 2022 19:32:09 GMT
A long term investing plan will hinge upon how accurate one's Big Picture assessments are. Unless you're day-trading, in and out and in and out and in and out and in and out. Remind you of anything? Yep, it reminds me that being diversified has been wrong for many years now. The SP500 lost money in 10 years in 2000-2010. Growth beat value for over 10 years, in 2010-2021. US LC beat the rest of the world since 2010. The "experts" have been telling us that EM stocks are great for several years and they still lag. You have all kind of traders, you can be a daily one, but you trade in/out of funds every several months or even years. I based my style on Buffett rules: Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1 and Rule 3: Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I added a fourth rule: momentum. The other option for Buffett is SP500, for Bogle? 2-3 indexes.
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Post by chang on Aug 25, 2022 20:35:25 GMT
I own a number of Europe stocks - Nestle, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, Total, Shell, Equinor, Rio Tinto, ING. I still have some buys on my buy list. Also own SCHY. The “whys” have been extensively discussed in other threads.
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 25, 2022 23:18:38 GMT
FD "Yep, it reminds me that being diversified has been wrong for many years now. The SP500 lost money in 10 years in 2000-2010. Growth beat value for over 10 years, in 2010-2021. US LC beat the rest of the world since 2010. The "experts" have been telling us that EM stocks are great for several years and they still lag." I love these. Thanks.
EM markets are wealthy but controlled by the governments, not by the investors. The governments, in turn, are controlled by big money or political power. However, it is changing slowly now, but it would take many more years for ordinary folks like FD and me can have equal footing in the markets.
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Post by johnsmith on Aug 25, 2022 23:50:41 GMT
considering:
This is Britain and the rest of Europe is facing similar issues. Another raving Far-Left screed. If Britons and Euros are to be energy-poor, who exactly was it who demanded a long and steady policy of shutting down nuclear power? If we talk about THE BIG LIE, who (for YEARS!) fed out the incessant drumbeat that we could be prosperous and comfortable on wind and solar alone? The West took a good idea (conservation policies for clean air and water with increased efficiency in IC engines and nat gas) and turned it into this Frankenstein of energy self-destruction. But of course, virtue-signalers are never responsible for anything.
Far-Left? In UK, it's the conservatives who have been wielding power most of the time. Before that it was Tony Blair - who was more center than left. So I don't know where the "far-left" comes into play?
Big Lie? No body lied, febrile senility may allow some to believe that. The issues around Wind & Solar have been well known for decades. All those decisions were made by the Rightist/Capitalists - who were wielding the levers of power.
Frankenstein of energy self-destruction Nice turn of words. Meaningless though.
Capitalists are only responsible for the profits, the losses they foist on the rest, we saw that during the GFC. Capitalists are always willing to hold their own nation hostage for a buck!
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Post by Norbert on Aug 26, 2022 5:43:06 GMT
johnsmithThe article you posted is authored by a fanatical, left-wing conspiracy theorist. richardsok is correct. The article doesn't belong on this forum. I happen to be spending two weeks in the UK right now, but that's not important. What's important is that the author hates BREXIT and is blaming it for all of the UK's challenges. That's nonsense. In reality, ALL European countries are facing energy, trade, inflation, and budgetary challenges. That's because of the ban on Russian fuel imports, lingering supply chain issues, the extended Chinese Covid lockdown, and questionable monetary/ fiscal discipline. It's not about BREXIT. For example, here's a FT piece "Germany warns of ‘historic challenge’ as trade slides into deficit" about Germany's situation: www.ft.com/content/6f325773-bf8a-4e28-9fc1-6bc986ee90faThe Euro has lost about 40% relative to the USD thanks because of various EU issues: declining competitiveness, southern Europe financial irresponsibility, energy dependence, etc. The UK was prescient to get out, despite the EU's vindictive efforts to cause problems. The author furthermore claims that the Tories are trying to shut down the NHS. That's false. The NHS is in trouble because of high costs and large wait times caused by delayed healthcare related to the draconian lockdown ordered by the government during 2020-21. The NHS needs to be reformed; like the Canadian HC system, it's too socialized and inefficient. No one plans to take away the Brits' healthcare, but it does need to be restructured. I suggest focusing your posts on investing and leaving anti-capitalist ideology at the door. By the way (for better or for worse), the UK has led in terms of providing Ukraine with military hardware, while the EU hesitated. But, that's another subject.
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Post by johnsmith on Aug 27, 2022 11:12:11 GMT
johnsmith The article you posted is authored by a fanatical, left-wing conspiracy theorist. richardsok is correct. The article doesn't belong on this forum. I happen to be spending two weeks in the UK right now, but that's not important. What's important is that the author hates BREXIT and is blaming it for all of the UK's challenges. That's nonsense. In reality, ALL European countries are facing energy, trade, inflation, and budgetary challenges. That's because of the ban on Russian fuel imports, lingering supply chain issues, the extended Chinese Covid lockdown, and questionable monetary/ fiscal discipline. It's not about BREXIT. For example, here's a FT piece "Germany warns of ‘historic challenge’ as trade slides into deficit" about Germany's situation: www.ft.com/content/6f325773-bf8a-4e28-9fc1-6bc986ee90faThe Euro has lost about 40% relative to the USD thanks because of various EU issues: declining competitiveness, southern Europe financial irresponsibility, energy dependence, etc. The UK was prescient to get out, despite the EU's vindictive efforts to cause problems. The author furthermore claims that the Tories are trying to shut down the NHS. That's false. The NHS is in trouble because of high costs and large wait times caused by delayed healthcare related to the draconian lockdown ordered by the government during 2020-21. The NHS needs to be reformed; like the Canadian HC system, it's too socialized and inefficient. No one plans to take away the Brits' healthcare, but it does need to be restructured. I suggest focusing your posts on investing and leaving anti-capitalist ideology at the door. By the way (for better or for worse), the UK has led in terms of providing Ukraine with military hardware, while the EU hesitated. But, that's another subject.
Maybe the author is Fanatical Far Left.
At the same time blaming the Far left for all the problems is incorrect. Why?
Because it's the Right and Center who have been in power in the west for the last 50 -70 years. The Right & Center wield the reins of power. If anyone is to blame for the current problems, it's them.
The "far left" can't be scapegoated just because we don't like the current state of affairs.
added later:
PS: I reread the article and all of the statistics quoted, I have read elsewhere. The BBC talked about why the sewage is flowing untreated. So even if the author is who you say, the article itself doesn't seem to be substantially wrong in anyway.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 27, 2022 12:14:10 GMT
There is an interview of Thornburg TIBAX/TIBIX (related CEF TBLD) comanager in Barron's Part 2.
"FUNDS. Comanager Matt BURDETT of income-builder/global-allocation TIBAX/TIBIX (also, newer term-structure CEF TBLD) sees big income opportunities in Europe (when most are very negative). Fund has 80% in dividend-stocks (mostly foreign, some US) and 13% in BBB & below rated bonds. Europe isn’t homogeneous. Many European companies have large global footprints (RHHBY, etc); Total/TTE and Shell/SHEL offer better values (EV/EBITDA, etc) in energy than Exxon Mobil/XOM; other examples are also mentioned. Europe will be in recession but the question is how deep would it be? Fund has overweight in financials, underweight in IT. Burdett is also comanager for 2 other Thornburg funds."
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 27, 2022 21:03:01 GMT
There is an interview of Thornburg TIBAX/TIBIX (related CEF TBLD) comanager in Barron's Part 2. "FUNDS. Comanager Matt BURDETT of income-builder/global-allocation TIBAX/TIBIX (also, newer term-structure CEF TBLD) sees big income opportunities in Europe (when most are very negative). Fund has 80% in dividend-stocks (mostly foreign, some US) and 13% in BBB & below rated bonds. Europe isn’t homogeneous. Many European companies have large global footprints (RHHBY, etc); Total/TTE and Shell/SHEL offer better values (EV/EBITDA, etc) in energy than Exxon Mobil/XOM; other examples are also mentioned. Europe will be in recession but the question is how deep would it be? Fund has overweight in financials, underweight in IT. Burdett is also comanager for 2 other Thornburg funds." yogibearbull, just looked up TBLD on cefconnect - and I have a question: it pays monthly at 8.3% annual distribution rate and has no leverage; no ROC is being paid out... do you have insights on how it does that?
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 27, 2022 22:01:29 GMT
There is an interview of Thornburg TIBAX/TIBIX (related CEF TBLD) comanager in Barron's Part 2. "FUNDS. Comanager Matt BURDETT of income-builder/global-allocation TIBAX/TIBIX (also, newer term-structure CEF TBLD) sees big income opportunities in Europe (when most are very negative). Fund has 80% in dividend-stocks (mostly foreign, some US) and 13% in BBB & below rated bonds. Europe isn’t homogeneous. Many European companies have large global footprints (RHHBY, etc); Total/TTE and Shell/SHEL offer better values (EV/EBITDA, etc) in energy than Exxon Mobil/XOM; other examples are also mentioned. Europe will be in recession but the question is how deep would it be? Fund has overweight in financials, underweight in IT. Burdett is also comanager for 2 other Thornburg funds." yogibearbull , just looked up TBLD on cefconnect - and I have a question: it pays monthly at 8.3% annual distribution rate and has no leverage; no ROC is being paid out... do you have insights on how it does that? Good question. I had to look up for answer as the discount alone cannot provide that much boost for distributions. It does use call-writing and other option strategies to generate that extra distribution. So, basic portfolio yield is 5.04%, NAV-based distribution is 7.54% (boost from options), price-based distribution is 8.37% (boost from options & discount) (CEFConnect data). As a newer term-structure CEF, it has a firm termination date of 8/2/33 plus 18 months when the discount should disappear. www.thornburg.com/index.php?action=restrict&file=2022/04/TH4840_C-semi-annual-TBLD.pdf
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Post by steadyeddy on Aug 27, 2022 22:32:06 GMT
yogibearbull , just looked up TBLD on cefconnect - and I have a question: it pays monthly at 8.3% annual distribution rate and has no leverage; no ROC is being paid out... do you have insights on how it does that? Good question. I had to look up for answer as the discount alone cannot provide that much boost for distributions. It does use call-writing and other option strategies to generate that extra distribution. So, basic portfolio yield is 5.04%, NAV-based distribution is 7.54% (boost from options), price-based distribution is 8.37% (boost from options & discount) (CEFConnect data). As a newer term-structure CEF, it has a firm termination date of 8/2/33 plus 18 months when the discount should disappear. www.thornburg.com/index.php?action=restrict&file=2022/04/TH4840_C-semi-annual-TBLD.pdf yogibearbull, thank YOU.
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Post by richardsok on Sept 6, 2022 11:17:02 GMT
ArcelorMittal closes a large Bremen blast furnace and their wire-rod facilities in Hamburg, adding to the earlier shutdown of a blast furnace in Spain. They cite (what else?) energy costs as the reason. MEMO: Goldman Sachs looks to $125 barrel oil ahead. www.nationalreview.com/corner/russia-crosses-the-nord-stream/
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Post by steadyeddy on Sept 6, 2022 11:56:19 GMT
ArcelorMittal closes a large Bremen blast furnace and their wire-rod facilities in Hamburg, adding to the earlier shutdown of a blast furnace in Spain. They cite (what else?) energy costs as the reason. MEMO: Goldman Sachs looks to $125 barrel oil ahead. www.nationalreview.com/corner/russia-crosses-the-nord-stream/Russia wants the sanctions to be lifted (as we all know)...... Who knows the WEST might just do that as winter approaches? From an economic standpoint (not political/ethical/moral), those sanctions should be lifted sooner than later before the world slides into a deep recession.
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