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Post by rhythmmethod on Feb 5, 2021 15:26:50 GMT
Another choice might be the Matthews China Dividend fund MCDFX. Its P/E is certainly attractive when compared to the more growthy choices. Along my thinking as well. Might it be a good idea to exchange some MATFX for MCDFX? I was also wondering about old standby MAPIX, but less enthusiastic about it. Edit to add - just looked at MAPIX and noticed even though it's an 'income' fund it is tilted to growth according to M*.
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Post by chang on Feb 11, 2021 1:50:24 GMT
On SFGIX, its mediocre long-term CAGR is a concern for me, given that the ride has not been very smooth (unlike Foster's old fund MACSX). SFGIX has often gained less or lost more than, say, the Matthews dividend focused funds. Foster writes well, but has so far not delivered. Yes indeed, SFGIX/SIGIX is looking anemic when MATFX/MITEX is growing 1.5-2% every day. Here is a CHART showing some EM value vs. EM growth funds. Grantham and others are pumping EM value, it has yet to take off. I have owned some SIGIX for many years, and added to it a few weeks ago -- probably a mistake, as it's up a whopping 0.78% since my purchase. Fortunately, I own a lot more MITEX (and MIAPX) and APDYX than I do SIGIX. It's always frustrating when a manager appears to be highly intelligent, and articulates very compelling theses, but simply doesn't perform. Edit: I examined the chart over shorter periods of 1-3 months, thinking that SIGIX would look better ... it doesn't. Is it time to cut the cord on this thing?
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Post by rhythmmethod on Mar 4, 2021 15:17:35 GMT
I thought I'd bump this as there seems a bit of "drama". MATFX; add, punt or hold? I think I'm going to trickle a few $ into that and VWILX. Maybe it's early and for sure they've had a great run. Any change in the narrative as to why China is not going to do well, (if not be) the future. What do you say? chang, Norbert, (and anyone who would like to chine in).
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Post by Norbert on Mar 4, 2021 16:45:42 GMT
rhythmmethodMATFX had a fantastic run and I sold most of mine. The problem for me is simply the valuations, not the China story. Plus I fear a chart that has gone "parabolic". I buy the growth -> value rotation theory.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Mar 4, 2021 18:33:13 GMT
rhythmmethod MATFX had a fantastic run and I sold most of mine. The problem for me is simply the valuations, not the China story. Plus I fear a chart that has gone "parabolic". I buy the growth -> value rotation theory. You're a smart dude!
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Post by anitya on Mar 4, 2021 19:42:32 GMT
I am glad this thread is bumped up. The China story is a directional and long term theme and not expected to be in a straight line. What is? (Only the lucky few take the elevator to the top floor - the rest of us take spiral stairs!) With easy money already made and rotations being the order of the day, I was wondering if you guys know of any OEFs / ETFs that rotate well? XLSR did not measure up. As a separate but related thought, do you guys remember way back in 2012/2013 time frame somebody posted on M* discuss about a paid service that tells you when to rotate using ETFs? (My memory is not very good.) Copying yogibearbull.
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Post by anitya on Mar 4, 2021 20:16:14 GMT
Just an FYI - though my China investing is more than half of my dedicated international investing, it does not amount to much. I am still a big chicken about international equity investing - I probably will jump in with both feet well after it is established as a thing.
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Post by javajoe on Mar 10, 2021 0:09:21 GMT
MATFX had a fantastic run and I sold most of mine. The problem for me is simply the valuations, not the China story. Plus I fear a chart that has gone "parabolic". I buy the growth -> value rotation theory. Great call Norbert!
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Post by rhythmmethod on Apr 9, 2021 23:09:59 GMT
Looks like China drama is back. I'm considering adding to MATFX next week or so if it drops. I think it could drop more, maybe a lot more. Does anyone think the growth narrative has changed, longer-term? FWIW, due to my peripheral connections with the Chinese Embassy I get daily briefings. The rhetoric is ratcheting up daily, seemingly a lot, with a defensive narrative. I don't know if it means anything but does make me suspicious. Anyone adding or punting Asia growth? ,
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Post by richardsok on Apr 10, 2021 14:11:55 GMT
For such an intelligent people, I don't understand the thinking of the CCP leadership. A decade ago they could have begun a program of "killing them with kindness" toward integrating Taiwan. First invite representatives of Taiwan into the highest reaches of the CCP as observers; then as participants. Give them a major role to play in decisions involving defense, trade, banking, embassies, etc. Invite Taiwan generals into rotating leadership positions in the Chinese armed forces, a few ship captains, a few generals commanding tank brigades. Invite Taiwan to share their seat on the UN Security Council. Open trade wide -- giving incentives to new Taiwan ventures. Open news programs on both sides of the strait. Subsidize Taiwan "wish lists" -- modernize their fishing fleet & ports, pay for daycare, elder care, youth organizations, university scholarships. Offer free tourist river cruises to Taiwan retirees ... and treat them as honored cousins. IOW, slowly make the Taiwanese people happy & comfortable with a major mainland presence and a meaningful representation in government. The people of Hong Kong greatly feared the mainland when Britain turned it over to the Chicoms, but -- ever pragmatic -- they came to accept the situation comfortably -- until the CCP began its disastrous "clamp down" on free press, free assembly, independent courts --- exactly the wrong method to employ, and one that will never be forgotten by the Taiwanese. I am sure mainland arrogance has worked wonderfully to stiffen Taiwan's resolve. The $60Trillion dollar question: does Taiwan have a cache of nuclear warheads obtained from the IDF or the Pakis? Would India lament terribly if its great Asian rival was suddenly shocked and repulsed with enormous losses at sea? A Taiwanese first strike on a mainland city in event of attack would be suicide --- but one such surprise blast crippling a massive invasion fleet once first shots had been fired would cause Beijing to think very, very hard. Beijing is in a position to obtain everything it desires as a regional, maybe even global hegemon. It needs only to cultivate the image of a gentle, cooperative & benign power -- much as the US was in the 50s and early 60s. One tragedy of our children's lives will be that the CCP chose arrogance instead.
---------- Re investing: I keep ASHR on my permanent daily watch list. While it is certainly in a trough, I see no technicals suggesting a buying opportunity now.
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Post by anitya on Apr 10, 2021 16:51:30 GMT
Taiwan and mainland will not integrate or form a union in my lifetime and that is not necessary for the greater China economic theme to play out.
I have not increased or changed my international or China allocation since early - mid January.
I am going to wait for the direction of social activism by corporate America to play out as we may course correct to get back on a long term sustainable economic path. So no current plan to increase international allocation.
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Post by anitya on Apr 10, 2021 18:40:40 GMT
The thinking of CCP is simple. It is a monopolistic institution and behaves like one. Reason why it does not want BABA or any other company not owned by CCP to have a bigger grip on people than itself.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Apr 12, 2021 19:15:43 GMT
While teaching in Beijing last year I had two college students assigned to me as assistants/translators, etc. While walking through the city I noticed very upscale homes like I would see in Georgetown or upper east side. I mentioned to the students that I didn't expect to see such opulence in China. They said there are many rich people here. I wondered how that that reconciled with the concept of communism. They responded that the rich people help the poor people so ultimately it is a good thing. I said some people in my country say the same thing. We then looked at each other and laughed for about 5 minutes. CCP is way more capitalist than many people recognize. BABA is up about 9% today. - FWIW
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Post by Chahta on Apr 13, 2021 1:10:28 GMT
I’m not sure how well China investments are doing, since I own none directly. But yet again international is taking a backseat to US, at least what I own is.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Apr 13, 2021 1:39:15 GMT
I’m not sure how well China investments are doing, since I own none directly. But yet again international is taking a backseat to US, at least what I own is. I think it’s a ping pong match. But you’re right. US is winning it seems...
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Post by Norbert on Apr 13, 2021 15:28:27 GMT
My take on China and Asia-ex-Japan is that stocks got a bit overheated with near 100% gains last year; and are now simply cooling off. This seems particularly evident in the growthier funds like FSEAX and MATFX. (Click to enlarge.) There may be something fundamental going on, but I'm not clever enough to grasp it. So, just technicals, in my opinion.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Apr 13, 2021 16:36:18 GMT
Norbert , you played that really well, IMO. When I look at my realized profit in MATFX, it’s good and well into five figures but I sure didn’t hit it at the top. More like pruning since summer. I’m still ahead. I’m going to give it a little while and start to trickle some back into it. If I ever get near 100% up in 12 month in ANYTHING, I’ll take big gains and see what happens next. Lesson learned. I still think China and clean energy are the future but got overheated. Bravo on your play!
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Post by anitya on Apr 23, 2021 2:30:55 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 23, 2021 2:56:36 GMT
That is not a positive feature on Alibaba/BABA or Chinese techs by SCMP that is owned by Alibaba/BABA [Ma]. Moreover, Chinese Gov wants Ma to divest media assets like SCMP. It seems that clouds over Ma remain. Story seems routine but its appearance in SCMP may have some meaning.
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Post by anitya on Apr 23, 2021 3:33:23 GMT
That is not a positive feature on Alibaba/BABA or Chinese techs by SCMP that is owned by Alibaba/BABA [Ma]. Moreover, Chinese Gov wants Ma to divest media assets like SCMP. It seems that clouds over Ma remain. Story seems routine but its appearance in SCMP may have some meaning. Agree. It felt like SCMP is eager to please CCP. The non-elite, socially conservative citizen (which includes sticking it to big corporations) loves CCP.
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Post by anitya on Apr 23, 2021 18:21:31 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 23, 2021 20:15:49 GMT
anitya , that makes sense because 1) China A-share weighting in EM indexes [FTSE, MSCI] is going up in phases, and 2) institutions need licenses to do business in China and not everyone gets quick approval [Vanguard has been a favorite, but it is messing up lately]. So, there is some truth to BlackRock saying that global investors are underweight in China. But note that EEM is now 37.31% in China, 14.17% in Taiwan; VWO is 40.80% in China, 17.66% in Taiwan. That is plenty for me through an EM fund I have although I use an active fund [only 32.19% in China, 11.06% in Taiwan]. While China and Taiwan have their issues, there is more business cooperation than political cooperation.
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Post by anitya on Apr 23, 2021 20:54:52 GMT
yogibearbull, That makes sense from a benchmark stand point to at least have as much as indices have. However, I thought the video was saying folks are strategically speaking under-allocated, which I took to mean their take is to over-allocate beyond the levels of the indices. Thanks though for sharing your concerted personal allocation of only 33% in an EM fund. It has been about 3-4 months since I invested in FHKCX by liquidating an international (not just EM) fund and thought I should review / reassess. I know there is an absolute and relative $$$ loss. A
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Post by rhythmmethod on May 28, 2021 14:02:57 GMT
There never is an end to "China Drama" it seems. In the past it has proven a reason to BTD. I'm kind of leaning to reallocate now, however. The reason has more to do my my desire to simplify rather than squeeze the best TR. Thus, I'm considering slowly dissolving my MATFX (I've made a pile of $ with it) and reallocating to VWILX (and others) where a good manager can decide howe much China to hold. This is along my thinking with HC specific funds as well. What do others think about China going forward? The basic long term narrative is a net positive for China, IMO. I'm re-thinking how much drama is within my current tolerance. chang , what are your thoughts?
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Post by Chahta on May 28, 2021 15:47:41 GMT
At times I regret I own any non-US equity fund. But I do, so let them decide the country du jour to invest in.
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Post by anitya on May 28, 2021 17:13:04 GMT
My China allocation was a reallocation from International. It turned out to be a bust in the 5 months since I made the move. I knew China is going to be more volatile and so no complaints there. The old moved up while the new lost money, making the bust even more stark. I am trying to find reasons to continue in China. Is the China market uncorrelated to the US more than the developed international is?
At a big picture, I agree with Chahta’s comment.
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Post by rhythmmethod on May 28, 2021 17:31:58 GMT
At times I regret I own any non-US equity fund. But I do, so let them decide the country du jour to invest in. What fund(s) are you using, Chahta?
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Post by Chahta on May 28, 2021 18:05:19 GMT
VEU that's all. World less US. I don't care for US/World combo funds. It's an index fund with less leeway to choose countries.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2021 19:57:29 GMT
I have American Funds New World (NEWFX), ARTYX, FISMX and FSEAX. FISMX and FSEAX are small holdings that I am accumulating right now.
NEWFX is the largest INTL holding of mine. This fund will never hit a home run. Always solidly middle of the pack.
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Post by chang on May 29, 2021 1:25:24 GMT
There never is an end to "China Drama" it seems. In the past it has proven a reason to BTD. I'm kind of leaning to reallocate now, however. The reason has more to do my my desire to simplify rather than squeeze the best TR. Thus, I'm considering slowly dissolving my MATFX (I've made a pile of $ with it) and reallocating to VWILX (and others) where a good manager can decide howe much China to hold. This is along my thinking with HC specific funds as well. What do others think about China going forward? The basic long term narrative is a net positive for China, IMO. I'm re-thinking how much drama is within my current tolerance. chang , what are your thoughts? Good time to revive this topic. Yeah, the drama never seems to slow up lately. I still believe that at some point in the future China basically owns the world, and that a China overweight in my investments makes sense. Whether or not Chinese stocks are the place to be in 2021 or 2022, of course, is a different question. China does face a few headwinds. The various political dramas may or may not directly affect the profitability of Chinese companies, but perception matters. Nobody ever said the stock market was logical. If investors sell and flee, then prices will drop, regardless of whether or not it's logical. It is possible that the US may ramp up its delisting efforts regarding Chinese shares that trade on US exchanges. China may mishandle the rise of cryptocurrencies. There's a variety of potential obstacles in the road ahead for China. I've got funds like MIAPX and MITEX in [unfortunately] taxable accounts, sitting on ~50% CGs, and I think it would be foolish for me to sell them. However, as most Foreign and especially EM funds have big China concentrations, I am not as warm to individual China funds as I was a while back. My newest buy in this arena was FHKCX (in an IRA) with shares purchased between 12/2020 and 02/2021 (ten purchases): the first five purchases are in the green, and then last five are in the red (I can hear R48 saying "You were on the right track... then what happened to you?!"). The entire position is currently sitting at +0.71%. A distinct failure, I have to say. In contrast, I bought FISMX five times between 12/2020 and 05/2021 (every purchase in the green; R48: "Attaboy!") and it's up 15.4%. I may be better off ending the FHKCX experiment for now. It's a fairly sizable position, but I'm still well over-weighted with other foreign and EM funds. I own FEMKX in the same IRA (31% China), which might be a better place for that money right now. I will give this some thought next week. I wonder what Ray Dalio is doing with his China investments now.
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