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Post by chang on Jan 23, 2021 7:41:00 GMT
Anybody lightening up on this fund? Wondering if there are any warning signs here (data from 12/31/2020): VWILX MSCI AC World Index ex USA (Benchmark) P/E 37.9 20.6 P/B 5.2 1.8 Earnings Gwrth 15.1% 9.7%
Number #1 holding: TSLA (5.5% of assets)
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Post by Karen on Jan 23, 2021 12:00:39 GMT
We own VWIGX and it is one of our highest conviction funds with the most in it. We had started thinking we should sell or exchange some of it. My husband was thinking it would finally go down a good bit yesterday given the world markets were mostly down, but it only lost 0.02%. So now instead of reducing it we're wondering if we actually shouldn't reduce some of our other foreign funds and buy more VWIGX. We would appreciate any comments on that and if anyone understands how it held up so well yesterday. Thank you for starting a discussion on it.
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Post by chang on Jan 23, 2021 13:09:54 GMT
Karen- it's "high conviction" for me as well, and my highest $ equity fund by far. I am simply contemplating whether a teensy bit of rebalancing makes sense, as part of a multi-pronged attempt at incremental risk reduction / mitigation within my entire portfolio.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jan 23, 2021 13:28:05 GMT
Interesting, thanks. I have yet opened ARTYX. It might be a better companion than I originally thought. chang , where would you rebalance to?
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 23, 2021 13:49:34 GMT
Looks pretty easy choice, keep your winners and sell you losers. The fund ranks in its category in the top 1-3% for 1 to 15 years, and you want to sell it
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Post by chang on Jan 23, 2021 21:36:55 GMT
Interesting, thanks. I have yet opened ARTYX. It might be a better companion than I originally thought. chang , where would you rebalance to? I was just thinking aloud, because my VWILX has grown a lot, and it is obviously an aggressive growth fund. Does anybody remember the "Fidelity Aggressive Growth Fund"? If I took a shaving off—and that's all I'm thinking about—I would keep the cash (or VUSFX). By the way ARTYX / APDYX has done really well, I added throughout May-December 2020. But I'm afraid to buy any more.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jan 23, 2021 22:20:01 GMT
I was just thinking aloud, because my VWILX has grown a lot, and it is obviously an aggressive growth fund. Does anybody remember the "Fidelity Aggressive Growth Fund"? If I took a shaving off—and that's all I'm thinking about—I would keep the cash (or VUSFX). By the way ARTYX / APDYX has done really well, I added throughout Mays-December 2020. But I'm afraid to buy any more. You can’t lose money taking a profit. I’m in the same boat with several funds. Since I have some cash from the Fidelity trust, I’m sitting on my hands with current gains. It’ll be interesting to see what February brings, but I’d never predict anything. BTW, I think ima get some penicillin and reduce my VDIGX.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 23, 2021 22:41:56 GMT
You can’t lose money taking a profit. I’m in the same boat with several funds. Since I have some cash from the Fidelity trust, I’m sitting on my hands with current gains. It’ll be interesting to see what February brings, but I’d never predict anything. BTW, I think ima get some penicillin and reduce my VDIGX. So basically, you are a timer/trader, and you think that prices will be lower in February. You do realize that prices can be up another 5% by the time you want to buy again and...you will not buy because prices are up...or...you buy because you were out and missed the ride just to find out 2 weeks later prices go lower.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jan 23, 2021 22:47:41 GMT
So basically, you are a timer/trader, and you think that prices will be lower in February. You do realize that prices can be up another 5% by the time you want to buy again and...you will not buy because prices are up...or...you buy because you were out and missed the ride just to find out 2 weeks later prices go lower. I'm not doing anything with VWILX, as I said. Chang was talking about trimming some profit, not getting out. Seems reasonable to me. I'm trimming VDIGX because it is underperforming.
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Post by chang on Jan 24, 2021 1:29:46 GMT
So basically, you are a timer/trader, and you think that prices will be lower in February. You do realize that prices can be up another 5% by the time you want to buy again and...you will not buy because prices are up...or...you buy because you were out and missed the ride just to find out 2 weeks later prices go lower. A few points: 1. Every investor is a timer/trader. If you bought an investment, you expect that it will increase in value. How quickly you expect it to increase in value, and to what degree, and whether and when you (or your heirs) plan to sell, or buy more, are separate questions. Every single day you hold an investment, you have expectations. Your specific statement "you think that prices will be lower in February" is without basis or justification, as far as I can tell. 2. I think everybody realizes that the market goes up and down. "You do realize that prices can be up another 5% by the time you want to buy again and...you will not buy because prices are up...or...you buy because you were out and missed the ride just to find out 2 weeks later prices go lower." Yes, I realize that. I also realize that prices can be down 5% by the time I want to buy again, and I will feel like a genius. 3. There is nothing wrong with aiming to preserve capital. Suppose you have $X million, which is slightly in excess of $Y million—the amount you have determined to be adequate for you to live out the rest of your life in the most comfortable and opulent fashion you can imagine if you sold everything out to cash, even allowing for inflation and charitable giving. Ask yourself this: (1) Why would you ever allow your nest egg to fall below $Y? (2) How should you treat your "excess margin" ($X−$Y): aggressively or conservatively, if you see no real need to grow your capital well in excess of $Y?
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Post by chang on Jan 31, 2021 2:23:25 GMT
Update: last week I sold some US stock funds in a defense play. VWILX remains untouched. ARTYX / APDYX is back on my "buy" list. Basically, my inclination is to sell US, buy foreign. If I reach 50:50 US-foreign equity, I won't mind at all.
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Post by chang on Feb 18, 2021 2:17:28 GMT
Figured I'd check in, nearly a month since the OP, to mention that in the last month VWILX is up +7.25%, which is +1.49% more than its category and +2.55% more than its benchmark. (Incidentally, TSLA has dropped to the #3 holding.) I have no idea how they are doing it. I haven't added since late last year, but I don't plan to sell a penny of this fella. I have been adding to foreign equity since 1/1, but VWILX is my largest holding by far, so I am content to focus on the next tier down. (I have sold US equity this month, though, and reduced overall portfolio equity to around 53%.) I'm sure the day will come when this fund will bite me in the stern. Not soon, I hope.
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Post by mrbilbobaggins on Mar 29, 2021 18:20:58 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Mar 29, 2021 19:32:20 GMT
VWIGX has 2 subadvisors - Baillie Gifford [60% of AUM, 3 PMs] and Schroder [40% of AUM; 2 PMs].
Baillie Gifford team is now led by James Anderson [2003- ; retiring soon] and team includes Thomas Coutts [2016- ], Lawrence Burns [2020- ; designated successor to Anderson].
So, a transition has been in place.
VG likes to be involved in PM transitions and wants the process to be planned and gradual. There have been some VG subadvisors that have made sudden changes and a displeased VG subsequently either cut their AUM, or cut them out entirely.
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 3, 2021 14:34:28 GMT
Own MGGPX +3.62% YTD and have a few others on the watch list. I'm keeping my position in MGGPX (for now) despite the YTD. The 3 other funds I may marry with it to round out my World/International exposure: PRGSX +9.98% VWIGX +5.58% POGRX +15.82% M* 2* rating - wonder why?? The last two have excellent ER and all 3 have impressive long term performance. Interesting reading this thread from earlier in the year along with this one: big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/90/prgsx-replacement
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2021 20:21:23 GMT
POGRX +15.82% M* 2* rating - wonder why?? POGRX was bottom of the pack in 2019 and 2020. It recovered a bit this year. It has been overweight healthcare/biotech, still is. I accumulated it during 2019 -2020.
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mrc
Lieutenant
Posts: 104
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Post by mrc on Aug 3, 2021 20:37:58 GMT
Waffle,
That is always been the case for the funds managed by Primecap, overweight in Tech and Healthcare.
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Post by chang on Aug 4, 2021 0:00:32 GMT
I forgot about this OP. I was early, because the fund roared to a peak on February 12, but then it plunged over the next three weeks. It recovered about half the drop by mid April, and has bounced around that level since. So my caution wasn't too far off. I didn't sell anything. Chart still looks OK, though: NAV > 50dma > 200dma. Link I would probably be a buyer rather than a seller now, but I'm holding ... it's my largest all-equity position. New money is going to build up smaller positions (also foreign).
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Post by wannabechef on Aug 4, 2021 13:26:26 GMT
As the fellow who instigated that thread I might chime in with my current assessment on the below picks and my thoughts on the move at that time. As a review, I intended to open a position in PRGSX to round out my international allocation. T Rowe soft closed that fund at the time to outside brokerages so I had to go fishing elsewhere. My intention was to sell out of FMIJX (FMI International Fund) and move into PRGSX, seeing little reason to stick with the FMI fund after it's steep decline at the onset of the pandemic.
Ended up adding to the PRIMECAP Fund (POGRX) along with opening a position in the Vanguard Int Growth (VWIGX) instead as an alternative to PRGSX. YTD VWIGX has been a little underwhelming, granted it had a stellar year in 2020. PRIMECAP has done well this year, but in fairness, it slightly lags the total stock market. Still trying to be patient with this one.
Fast forward to today...turns out you CAN get into T Rowe Global (PRGSX) at TDAmeritrade at least. I attempted to buy PRGSX earlier this year after it soft closed, got a notice that it was rejected (closed). But yesterday, I had a little extra cash sitting around and decided to take a crack at it, and the buy went through. Now I am left to decide what to with VWIGX, keep it, or ditch it for my original plan. I think I'll sit on it for a bit and determine where I want my Domestic to International allocation to be at (Now it's 75/25) and decide this fall what direction I want to go. I don't see much reason to ratchet my International allocation up is my only thought.
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 4, 2021 14:32:48 GMT
Appreciate the follow up wannabechef … I see a huge value in forums that have a lot of ticker history. You can go back and see what folks invested in and why… then see if there reasoning was good etc. this was and is a good thread. I like to have 20-25 International and I’m currently light and need to add. My inclination is to add PRGSX to my MGGPX as I had such a hard time choosing between the two to begin with. Just really like the LT performance of it and reasonable ER. That said, VWIGX has an even better ER and great record as well. I had BGAFX on my watch list at one rime but think these are better choices.
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Post by roi2020 on Aug 5, 2021 3:50:59 GMT
As the fellow who instigated that thread I might chime in with my current assessment on the below picks and my thoughts on the move at that time. As a review, I intended to open a position in PRGSX to round out my international allocation. T Rowe soft closed that fund at the time to outside brokerages so I had to go fishing elsewhere. My intention was to sell out of FMIJX (FMI International Fund) and move into PRGSX, seeing little reason to stick with the FMI fund after it's steep decline at the onset of the pandemic. I owned FMIYX (FMI International Fund - Institutional) in my Fidelity Roth IRA account. The account was transferred to Vanguard in May 2019 and FMIYX was swapped for VWILX. FMIYX dropped 28.20% from January 2020 to March 2020 while VWILX dropped "only" 15.52% during the same period. There was no skillful trading on my part as the timing was pure luck...
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Post by roi2020 on Aug 6, 2021 6:52:54 GMT
The current M* Fund Investor newsletter includes a recent Analyst Report (dated 07/07/21) for Vanguard International Growth. The fund was downgraded from Gold to Silver due to James Anderson's pending retirement.
Adam Sabban wrote:
"A key manager transition at a subadvisor slightly reduces confidence in Vanguard International Growth’s prospects, leading to a downgrade of both share classes’ Morningstar Analyst Rating to Silver from Gold. Subadvisor Baillie Gifford has produced exceptional performance behind a talented team of long-term growth investors, but the April 2022 retirement of influential manager James Anderson will be a loss. Anderson, who has served on the fund since 2003, is the architect of the sleeve’s aggressive growth philosophy, steering the strategy toward some of the best growth stocks of the last bull market. His presence will be missed, but the firm’s research effort is still in capable hands."
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