comlb
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Post by comlb on Jun 29, 2022 13:57:30 GMT
“Today I am starting to behave aggressively,” Howard Marks told the Financial Times in an interview. “Everything we deal in is significantly cheaper than it was six or 12 months ago.”
So...anything looking good to anyone?
P.S. For the old M* guard, I note that the Josh Peters screen (Moat= wide or narrow, Stars= 4 or 5, and Yield = 3% or better) brings back many more pages of candidates than it did last winter.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2022 14:13:39 GMT
Banks.
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comlb
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Post by comlb on Jun 29, 2022 14:36:20 GMT
certainly agree on banks. If you go back to right before 09, when Josh Peters' book came out, banks were viewed as stable income producers:
"If I were to sit down with a blank sheet of paper and a pencil and attempt to create a perfect dividend machine, my sketch would look very much like the average U.S. bank.” - Josh Peters. The Ultimate Dividend Playbook
Yet today, they still trade at lower valuations than the market due to the overhang, even though they have proven to be safe through multiple subsequent crises for last 12 years. The credit quality is as good as it has ever been. Bill Nygren made the same point this week:
I think that two of the big four are fine, but there are 5,000 banks in the US, and the big four get all the attention. There are even better opportunities in the regional and smaller players.
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Post by kathiel on Jun 29, 2022 20:58:22 GMT
Yes, I picked up A Canadian Bank, BNS, paying over 5%.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jun 29, 2022 23:13:17 GMT
comlb,@slooow, steelpony10, kathiel, alvinthechipmunk, On a riskier list of mine: Lloyds. Down in penny-stock range. LYG. I do already own BHB. Bar Harbor Bank. Operations: ME, NH, VT. (So far...) A less profitable prospect, perhaps--- but very popular: Capital City Bank Group. HQ in Tallahassee. CCBG. Canadian banks will serve you very well, too. I keep singing that same song. TD. RY. BNS. BMO CM. UNB Union Bank, VT and NH looks less attractive right now. I say that just based on Barron's rating, which is "HOLD." PRISX (TRP, financials) is a big slug of my money, too. Do I wish I waited to get in? Yes. Sticking with it, though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2022 18:54:34 GMT
comlb ,@slooow , steelpony10 , kathiel , alvinthechipmunk , On a riskier list of mine: Lloyds. Down in penny-stock range. LYG. I do already own BHB. Bar Harbor Bank. Operations: ME, NH, VT. (So far...) A less profitable prospect, perhaps--- but very popular: Capital City Bank Group. HQ in Tallahassee. CCBG. Canadian banks will serve you very well, too. I keep singing that same song. TD. RY. BNS. BMO CM. UNB Union Bank, VT and NH looks less attractive right now. I say that just based on Barron's rating, which is "HOLD." PRISX (TRP, financials) is a big slug of my money, too. Do I wish I waited to get in? Yes. Sticking with it, though. LYG - Interesting after 2008 crash it never recovered. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 1, 2022 20:05:53 GMT
Has anyone researched the fundamentals for FIBK? Technically it is poised for a run up of 20% or so.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 1, 2022 22:56:11 GMT
kathiel,https://seekingalpha.com/news/3852580-canada-tightens-rules-on-mortgage-combined-with-revolving-credit
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Post by chang on Jul 2, 2022 9:23:19 GMT
LYG - Interesting after 2008 crash it never recovered. Yeah, there must be a story there. That’s an AIG-type chart. Bankruptcy, government takeover? |
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 2, 2022 13:55:13 GMT
“Today I am starting to behave aggressively,” Howard Marks told the Financial Times in an interview. “Everything we deal in is significantly cheaper than it was six or 12 months ago.”
So...anything looking good to anyone?
P.S. For the old M* guard, I note that the Josh Peters screen (Moat= wide or narrow, Stars= 4 or 5, and Yield = 3% or better) brings back many more pages of candidates than it did last winter.
Yes, simple choice, SCHD at 3+% yield. |
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Post by richardsok on Jul 2, 2022 16:07:51 GMT
Has anyone researched the fundamentals for FIBK? Technically it is poised for a run up of 20% or so. EPS 1.92 for PE of about 20, but ------ Projected EPS next yr: 3.84. ( ! ) TipRanks gives it an '8'. Mer Lynch doesn't cover it. Recently upgraded by Keefe Bruyette and by Janney. My short term technicals bullish. |
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Post by fishingrod on Jul 2, 2022 16:28:22 GMT
LYG - Interesting after 2008 crash it never recovered. Yeah, there must be a story there. That’s an AIG-type chart. Bankruptcy, government takeover? Bingo!
UK takeover/bailout in 2008. And an acquisition of HBOS in 2008 turned out to be detrimental with 10s of billions of losses.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 2, 2022 17:18:35 GMT
“Today I am starting to behave aggressively,” Howard Marks told the Financial Times in an interview. “Everything we deal in is significantly cheaper than it was six or 12 months ago.”
So...anything looking good to anyone?
P.S. For the old M* guard, I note that the Josh Peters screen (Moat= wide or narrow, Stars= 4 or 5, and Yield = 3% or better) brings back many more pages of candidates than it did last winter.
Yes, simple choice, SCHD at 3+% yield. Oh, is that an "echo."?? R48 |
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Post by richardsok on Jul 2, 2022 18:19:04 GMT
Here's a front page WSJ headline to remember....
Markets had a bad first half 2022. It can get worse.
The first six months were full of surprises, from surging inflation to a crypto implosion.
Get ready for more shocks in the second half.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2022 22:28:37 GMT
Has anyone looked at the P/Es on holdings for SCHD? I'd recommend acquiring MRK. I hold AMGN, PFE, KO and PEP - all in the top holdings - all pricey. Why would one do this in a time of multiple compression?
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Post by richardsok on Jul 3, 2022 1:01:23 GMT
SCHD is way too volatile. It positively fries my indicators, even if I attempt to smooth charts by going out to two- or three-day intervals, averaging out violent drops.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 3, 2022 15:36:45 GMT
Has anyone looked at the P/Es on holdings for SCHD? I'd recommend acquiring MRK. I hold AMGN, PFE, KO and PEP - all in the top holdings - all pricey. Why would one do this in a time of multiple compression? Morningstar has the PE ratio at 13.65....versus 14.48 for the index. If this is "high" to you , perhaps due to the fund owning dividend payers that are actually "growing" some...and will increase dividends with inflation because of pricing power. R48 |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 3, 2022 15:40:13 GMT
SCHD is way too volatile. It positively fries my indicators, even if I attempt to smooth charts by going out to two- or three-day intervals, averaging out violent drops. R...volatile? I don't see any more than typical stock funds. Year price range of $70 to $81/share. It owns companies like Coca Cola, Verizon...Home Depot. Not typical volatility champions. R48 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 16:45:45 GMT
Has anyone looked at the P/Es on holdings for SCHD? I'd recommend acquiring MRK. I hold AMGN, PFE, KO and PEP - all in the top holdings - all pricey. Why would one do this in a time of multiple compression? Morningstar has the PE ratio at 13.65....versus 14.48 for the index. If this is "high" to you , perhaps due to the fund owning dividend payers that are actually "growing" some...and will increase dividends with inflation because of pricing power. R48 Well - here the average is 19. www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/etf/SCHDRegardless - look at the holdings. I hold the top 5. MRK is a good value - to each his own. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 3, 2022 19:37:32 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 19:50:49 GMT
I think thar data from the source is 3 months old. The holdings have changed. I can look at the top 5 holdings and see the P/Es. I would not buy any index, etf like this when multiples are compressing.
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Post by roi2020 on Jul 3, 2022 20:32:21 GMT
SCHD data from M* ETF Report. Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 20:51:38 GMT
My guess is that the lower p/es are forward and not trailing. If so, I definitely wouldn't be gauging by forward. I am not saying it is a poor choice, just not seeing a reason to add to most of the top 5 components - which I hold. I do reinvest dividends. MRK - I'd accumulate now.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 3, 2022 21:04:34 GMT
Besides time differences, M* data is fwd P/E, brokers' may be trailing P/E (Fido is clear on this, Schwab doesn't mention fwd or trailing, but their figures for SCHD are close). WSJ is behind paywall, so I don't know what it does.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 3, 2022 21:20:38 GMT
Morningstar has the PE ratio at 13.65....versus 14.48 for the index. If this is "high" to you , perhaps due to the fund owning dividend payers that are actually "growing" some...and will increase dividends with inflation because of pricing power. R48 Well - here the average is 19. www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/etf/SCHDRegardless - look at the holdings. I hold the top 5. MRK is a good value - to each his own. It's expected. Life can be easy owning just several funds or have a lot more moving parts, headache, time consuming, a lot more trading and...come out short or maybe even...to each his own. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 21:57:27 GMT
I think with the 13 range - likely forward. It is a good etf. So is SPY. But maybe not for new money right now. Right now - for new money - might be better to pick stocks until the dust settles.
YBB - if you google "p/e schd" the link for wsj pops up and can be opened. 19 avg P/E. Interesting - 20% is financials - they have low P/Es - both relative to the market avg and actually as they are depressed. I sure agree with accumulating them
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 22:07:11 GMT
Fidelity has the p/e (trailing) for SCHD as 15.78 with a 52nd percentile market average.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 22:31:22 GMT
Okay - I give. Buy SCHD. It is not a bargain - the topic of this OP. Some of its holdings appear to be so.
By the way - where is the trailing p/e shown on Fidelity. I see it for individual stocks. Not SCHD.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 3, 2022 22:49:04 GMT
Okay - I give. Buy SCHD. It is not a bargain - the topic of this OP. Some of its holdings appear to be so. By the way - where is the trailing p/e shown on Fidelity. I see it for individual stocks. Not SCHD. Sara...I was using Morningstar as "close enough for government work" info. When I go to Schwab site, it has PE at 15.74...on 31 March. Given the market decline, that means PE now lower. I consider SCHD PE an OK buying range; but would not be surprised market goes lower, and SCHD goes lower. R48 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2022 22:55:46 GMT
Okay - I give. Buy SCHD. It is not a bargain - the topic of this OP. Some of its holdings appear to be so. By the way - where is the trailing p/e shown on Fidelity. I see it for individual stocks. Not SCHD. At Fidelity's quote page, scroll to "Key Statistics, then scroll down to link "See all key stats," under "Portfolio Fundamentals," it's the 4th entry down. |
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