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Post by xray on Jan 29, 2023 20:05:04 GMT
Mustang, Norbert, anitya, uncleharley, richardsok, fritzo489, retiredat48, Chahta, ECE Prof, Zacks Ares Capital (ARCC) Outpaces Stock Market Gains: What You Should Know Zacks Equity Research Thu, January 26, 2023, 5:50 PM EST ARCC +0.10% In the latest trading session, Ares Capital (ARCC) closed at $19.62, marking a +1.29% move from the previous day. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.1%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.61%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 6.59%. Heading into today, shares of the private equity firm had gained 5.16% over the past month, lagging the Finance sector's gain of 6.37% and outpacing the S&P 500's gain of 4.58% in that time. Ares Capital will be looking to display strength as it nears its next earnings release, which is expected to be February 7, 2023. On that day, Ares Capital is projected to report earnings of $0.56 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 7.69%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $577.74 million, up 9.21% from the prior-year quarter. Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Ares Capital should also be noted by investors. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook. Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model. Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.47% higher. Ares Capital is holding a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) right now.Digging into valuation, Ares Capital currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 8.51. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 7.96.The Financial - SBIC & Commercial Industry industry is part of the Finance sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 62, which puts it in the top 25% of all 250+ industries. The Zacks Industry Rank includes is listed in order from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1. ----------- Comment: My current analysis data shows ARCC with a 9star rating, last insider trading at 34,000sh @ 19.77, current dividend @ 9.77%, with a increase of +21 (277 vs 256) in the new weekly analysis total for growth.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Feb 3, 2023 20:18:56 GMT
Mustang,Norbert,anitya,uncleharley,richardsok,fritzo489,retiredat48,Chahta,ECE Prof,
Market is going up faster than we should expect it to since the first of the year. Suggest/recommend looking at OUR CURRENT securities that are currently not performing to our expectations. The current CEF world (in general) is performing very well (IMHO)....
Examples:
CEF ......................... 12/31 NAV/MktPrc .......... current 2/3 NAV/MktPrc ........... COMMENTS
AVK .............................. 12.31/10.90 ............................. 13.60/12.88 .......................... EOY extra dividends, insider buying activity 1/26 400sh @ 12.36 HGLB ............................ 12.84/9.42 ............................... 12.64/10.14 .......................... Performs well in down Mkt's KYN .............................. 10.06/8.56 ............................... 10.32/8.97 ............................ Performs as a Penny stock for longer term MFD .............................. 9.16/8.09 ................................ 9.69/8.64 ............................. Tied to infrastructure $$ RSF ............................... 17.08/16.93 ............................. 17.24/16.27 .......................... Buyback 5% @ 17.24, RO 3/1 @ 15.84 completed, , Public offer @ 17.80 RVT ............................... 14.61/13.26 ............................. 16.70/15.31 .......................... Considered undervalued if/when <14, Insider buying @ 13.42 last year USA ............................... 5.90/5.70 ................................ 6.42/6.34 ............................. Form 5 Beneficial ownership announced EDI ............................... 4.98/4.82 ................................. 5.58/6.49 ............................. Insider buying activity 1/23 1000sh @ 6.32. Security buyable now buyable ....................................................................................................................................... with distribution cut effective 12/31. Collapse of distribution last year ........................................................................................................................................(see previous message board posts) was tied to paying distribution based ........................................................................................................................................on 12/31/2001. Should be a good year this year going forward with .........................................................................................................................................the expected cut in their distribution that is now considered in line with .........................................................................................................................................12/31 NAV LGI ............................... 16.01/14.64 .............................. 17.49/16.26 .......................... EOY extra dividends
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Feb 3, 2023 20:55:39 GMT
Hi, x. Thanks for the post.
Back in late 2021, there was a month or two when HGLB zigged when the market zagged, but before and since, it appears in relatively close lockstep with SPY. You'll get no reliable hedging there.
Most (all?) of your funds listed are not fully earning their distributions.
Now that the market has rallied, do you see anything that looks promising at these levels?
Am always looking.
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Post by xray on Feb 5, 2023 19:59:04 GMT
@haven, uncleharley, Norbert, Chahta, richardsok, anitya, FD1000, win1177, richardsok, Your: Back in late 2021, there was a month or two when HGLB zigged when the market zagged, but before and since, it appears in relatively close lockstep with SPY. You'll get no reliable hedging there. Most (all?) of your funds listed are not fully earning their distributions. Now that the market has rallied, do you see anything that looks promising at these levels? Am always looking. ---------- In down markets we always see undervalued securities but when to buy them is always the challenge. With that said.... HGLB is one of those securities (for income oriented investors) that always has a small CapGain play for traders in down markets as we can capture some Captain when HGLB returns to it's normal NAV and MktPrc. Some of us currently have a 9.36 MktBuyCostPrc (10.77% distribution). Their NAV is relatively very stable with the >10% distribution being paid out. Their distribution has been raised twice, once from $0.71/monthly to $0.81/monthly and recently to $0.84/monthly. Looking at some of my current computer analysis data we observe the following: Crash Data .......... Double Dip ............ NAV/MktPrc ..............Year-end 12/31/222/23/22 .............................................. 12.26/9.67 5/22 .......................... 12.98/10.35 6/19 ................................................... 12.13/9.43 8/26 ................................................... 12.85/10.30 12/9 .......................... 11.94/9.30 12/31 .............................................................................................. 12.84/9.42 2/3/23 ................................................ 12.64/10.14 HGLB remains at a very big discount (NAV value to MktPrc investor, currently rated 7star in my world (buy in phases up to 6% max) increasing distributions consistently with the NAV rising with the announced distribution increases (IMHO). We have to remember that the HGLB "CHARTS" (that I look at) do not reflect HGLB's 8.5% consistent payout announcements each year against the " NAV" (>10% with the " DISCOUNT" factor built in).... With consistent volatile markets, this CEF has been a winner IMHO.... Something to look at.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by mnfish on Feb 6, 2023 13:13:37 GMT
@haven, uncleharley , Norbert , Chahta , richardsok , anitya , FD1000 , win1177 , richardsok , Your: Back in late 2021, there was a month or two when HGLB zigged when the market zagged, but before and since, it appears in relatively close lockstep with SPY. You'll get no reliable hedging there. Most (all?) of your funds listed are not fully earning their distributions. Now that the market has rallied, do you see anything that looks promising at these levels? Am always looking. ---------- In down markets we always see undervalued securities but when to buy them is always the challenge. With that said.... HGLB is one of those securities (for income oriented investors) that always has a small CapGain play for traders in down markets as we can capture some Captain when HGLB returns to it's normal NAV and MktPrc. Some of us currently have a 9.36 MktBuyCostPrc (10.77% distribution). Their NAV is relatively very stable with the >10% distribution being paid out. Their distribution has been raised twice, once from $0.71/monthly to $0.81/monthly and recently to $0.84/monthly. Looking at some of my current computer analysis data we observe the following: Crash Data .......... Double Dip ............ NAV/MktPrc ..............Year-end 12/31/222/23/22 .............................................. 12.26/9.67 5/22 .......................... 12.98/10.35 6/19 ................................................... 12.13/9.43 8/26 ................................................... 12.85/10.30 12/9 .......................... 11.94/9.30 12/31 .............................................................................................. 12.84/9.42 2/3/23 ................................................ 12.64/10.14 HGLB remains at a very big discount (NAV value to MktPrc investor, currently rated 7star in my world (buy in phases up to 6% max) increasing distributions consistently with the NAV rising with the announced distribution increases (IMHO). We have to remember that the HGLB "CHARTS" (that I look at) do not reflect HGLB's 8.5% consistent payout announcements each year against the " NAV" (>10% with the " DISCOUNT" factor built in).... With consistent volatile markets, this CEF has been a winner IMHO.... Something to look at.... Live Long and Prosper.... Certain Illiquid Positions Classified as Level 3 As of September 30, 2022, the Fund (HGLB) held an investment in the common shares of TerreStar Corporation (“TerreStar”) valued at $61,209,167, or 23.8% of net assets, and U.S. Senior Loans valued at $19,854,675 or 7.7% of net assets. TerreStar does not currently generate revenue and primarily derives its value from holding licenses of two wireless spectrum assets As of now, if TerreStar is unsuccessful in satisfying such deployment milestones, or if other services cannot be implemented in a manner that does not interfere with WMTS, the value of the TerreStar equity would likely be materially negatively impacted From a MStar article In February 2019, Highland converted Highland Global Allocation from an open-end fund to a CEF. It was forced to take this unusual step because the fund had become too concentrated in illiquid securities like TerreStar to meet purchase and redemption requests in the normal course of operations.[12] Converting to a CEF, Highland argued, would allow it to retain these illiquid names while obviating the need to manage investor cash flows. The tax character of distributions paid during the years ended September 30, 2022 - Income 7,285,771 ROC $ 13,622,562
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Post by richardsok on Feb 9, 2023 21:19:54 GMT
Merr Lynch: Brief summary & Selected Highlights of CEF Report
Top areas: munis, preferreds, mlps Top risks: leverage, liquidity & disty cuts Recommend: dollar cost averaging into high quality funds
Oilfield service & Mlps to do well in 2023 Preferreds look more promising than sr loans Leverage ratios are now quite high historically 2022 saw a record number of disty cuts
Selected “BUYS” Convertible: CHY Glob. Cov Calls: ETW, IGD US Cov Calls: CII, BXMX BDJ Debt: VVR FRA MLP: NML Multi Sector: BTZ Muni: IIM NAD Preferred: FFC HPF RE RQI Tax Advan: AGD GDV
Notes: NCV downgraded to neutral PHK, JPS upgraded to Buy PDI: rated at neutral
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Post by xray on Feb 26, 2023 21:14:37 GMT
richardsok, mnfish, Bloomberg A Second-Half Stock-Market Rally Is Still in Play Despite RoutJessica Menton Sun, February 26, 2023, 10:21 AM EST (Bloomberg) -- Stock-market believers are looking past the roughest stretch in months for US equities and clinging to bets on a rally in the back half of the year once the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates. The S&P 500 Index is coming off its worst week since Dec. 9, as hotter-than-forecast inflation data boosted speculation that the Fed will lift borrowing costs several more times, potentially pausing in July. That’s a steeper path of policy tightening than investors were bracing for just a few weeks ago.However, it still largely tracks with the theory that’s prevailed since the end of 2022: That equities would struggle through the first six months of the year before gaining strength in the second half. Stock-market technicals indicate that investors agree with this logic, as the S&P 500’s uptrend that started last fall continues even with the index losing 2.6% this month. “We’re getting closer to the end of the Fed’s rate cycle and markets will begin to start discounting that,” said Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth. Of course, risks to this outlook abound. Swaps traders see a peak rate of roughly 5.4% in July, up from around 5% at the start of February. But a new paper argues that it may need to rise as high as 6.5%, raising the specter of a so-called hard landing in which the economy falls into a recession. In the rosier soft-landing scenario, the Fed tames inflation while the economy continues to grow.“The market can handle a terminal rate at 5.5%, but it wouldn’t be able to handle one that’s 6% or higher,” Bartels said “That would really rock markets.” The alarming inflation figures weren’t the only trigger for the S&P 500’s down week. Dire forecasts from bellwethers like Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. also soured the mood. This week brings more clues on the health of the consumer, with profit updates from Target Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. The stock market slump may be discouraging, but it shouldn’t be a shock based on historical patterns. Over the past 25 years, February has been among the worst months for the S&P 500, averaging a loss of 0.4%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark gauge is down 2.6% this month after leaping 6.2% in January. For Bartels , any pullback in the coming weeks and months will be an opportunity to buy. She favors aerospace and defense stocks, along with semiconductors, which have rebounded after a brutal 2022. She isn’t alone. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, is sticking with his bet that the US economy will skirt an economic downturn. He thinks inflation will ebb further, and if rates stay higher for longer he recommends small-cap companies and large-cap industrials. Fed Prep “The stage is still set for the US economy to accelerate in the second half of the year on a strong consumer,” he said. “That would be a boon for equities.”The Fed’s next rates decision is still nearly a month away, leaving the market plenty of time to absorb a flood of inflation, labor market and wage-growth figures. Traders are preparing for the Fed to possibly return to jumbo hikes: Overnight index swaps are pricing in about 30 basis points of tightening for the March 22 announcement, and two-year Treasury yields touched the highest since 2007 on Friday. That’s a toxic backdrop for growth stocks, whose valuations are more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Those shares saw strong rallies to start this year on speculation that the Fed would soon pause its hikes. With that seeming less likely, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 tumbled 1.7% Friday, eclipsing the decline in the S&P 500. But even so, the bull case for stocks is still in place as long as the Fed remains on the path it set last year, according to Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird. “Inflation is never going to fall in a straight line after peaking,” he said. It would require a full quarter of hotter-than-expected inflation and jobs data to force the Fed to dramatically raise its projections for its terminal rate, he estimated. “The market doesn’t necessarily hate rate hikes,” he said. “ It hates when hikes are bigger than it expects or faster than it expects.” ---------------------------- Comment: Currently my current analysis data on dividend investing shows: 1... 20% of securities are doing very well (approximately same price or are now higher than last years crash data) 2... We must remember that if/when a dividend security is paying a " consistent" dividend or distribution (each month or Qtr), the security " MUST" replace that payout and "more" to meet the " next" distribution cycle that we are expecting (if the book value or NAV is to remain consistently acceptable to us). In effect, we always want the dividend or distribution plus some additional CapGain in the MktPrc going forward. Many chart watchers ignore the dividend payout that is not in the graph and should be. Dividend and distribution payouts "VARY" (normally 7%-12%) and can make a "BIG" difference if they were to be added in. When dividends increase or decrease, they again are not in the "changing" graph 3... Current data for some CEF's (against "CRASH" dates of last year) looks very promising going forward even though they may be volatile. Examples: AVK, HGLB, KYN (PENNY STOCK), LGI, MFD, RSF, RVT, and USA. Some CEF's (EDF, EDI, GLO, GLQ, GLV as examples) have " changed" their monthly payout distributions (which were way out of line with acceptable reality and drove their NAV's out of site negatively in paying their payouts ) and are now something to watch as their payouts are now relatively low against reality (with their current "NEW" distribution policies in place) and now favoring income investors (dividends + growth). Any "additional" NAV growth this year will affect the NAV in a very positive way since the CEF's will not change their lowered distribution policies until 12/31 of this year, and thus we will get the lower MktPrc currently and the revised lowered distribution Bottom Line: Opportunity, going forward, and using the 2% (early bird) factor (of portfolio) initial buy's could be a opportunity not to be passed up (single opinion") if/when the market returns to normality. In some cases the market will probably continue going up with the better securities while the non-performers will languish or go down further. Dollar cost averaging will be very important (up or down) and buying very selectively (in my sole opinion) Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Feb 26, 2023 21:46:42 GMT
richardsok, mnfish, Buy's by insiders: GLO ... 2/8 ... 60,000sh ... 5.05Live Long and Prosper.... GLQ ... 2/8 ... 15,000sh ... 6.25 RSF .... 2/3 ... 43,000sh .. 15.84 AVK had their latest buyer activity on 1/26 ... 400sh ... 12.36 EDI ... 11/30/22 ... 2140sh ... 4.80 (before newly revised distribution} RVT ... 10/5/22 ... 600sh ... 13.42 (used to have a 10% distribution policy in 2008 ... currently 7%) Live Long and Prosper..,..
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Post by xray on Mar 5, 2023 22:01:02 GMT
uncleharley, Norbert, Chahta, richardsok, anitya, FD1000, win1177, Bloomberg Stock Market’s Fate Comes Down to the Next 13 Trading Sessions Jessica Menton and Elena Popina Sun, March 5, 2023, 11:00 AM EST In this article: ^GSPC +1.61% (Bloomberg) -- Four major events over the next 13 trading sessions will be the key catalysts in determining whether this year’s stock-market revival gets derailed or starts rolling again after a February slump. It all begins Tuesday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers his two-day biannual monetary policy testimony on Capitol Hill. With the S&P 500 Index coming off its best week in a month, investors will be searching for any hint on the central bank’s interest-rate hiking path. “The market is clinging to every single positive thing Powell says,” Emily Hill, founding partner at Bowersock Capital, said. “The minute the word ‘disinflation’ left his lips in a speech earlier this year, the market soared.” Indeed, the rally at the end of last week was spurred by Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic saying the central bank could pause this summer. After Powell, comes the February jobs report on March 10 and consumer-price index on March 14. Another hot reading on employment growth and inflation could dash any hopes that the Fed will pullback soon. “There are such conflicting signals in the economy,” Hill said. “So you’re going to see overreactions from investors to the upcoming data.”Then, on March 22, the Fed will give its policy decision and quarterly interest-rate projections, and Powell will hold his press conference. After that, investors should have a pretty clear idea of whether the central bank will halt its rate hikes some time in the coming months. Investors are anxious about most of this. Forward implied volatility is back in the low 30s for the consumer-price-index day and nearing 40 for Fed rate-decision day later, meaning traders are betting on some big swings, data compiled by Citigroup show. However, a forward implied volatility reading of 26 on jobs data day indicates the market is underpricing that risk, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup’s head of US equity trading strategy. As for the stock market itself, the prevailing sense has been calm. The S&P 500 posted a daily move of less than 0.5% in either direction for the three-trading days ending March 1, a streak of tranquility last seen in January when investors boosted their bets that the US economy may avert a recession as inflation ebbs. Here’s what traders will be monitoring. Powell TestimonyThe Fed chair’s biannual monetary policy report to the US Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday are likely to offer hints on the US economic outlook, specifically inflation, wage pressures and employment. Traders will also look for clues on additional steps the Fed will take to control elevated prices. Jobs ReportThe labor market was strong in January. That’s an important driver of inflation, because wage growth can keep prices higher. And it’s a risk for stock prices because sticky inflation would prevent the Fed from pausing rate hikes. Economists predict that the February unemployment rate will come in at 3.4%, unchanged from January. Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to drop to 215,000 after a surprising burst of 517,000 jobs a month earlier. But ultimately the data comes down to wages and whether the Fed thinks they’re slowing fast enough to drive inflation lower. Inflation DataThe February consumer price index reading is crucial, after it jumped to start the year. Any sign of persistent inflation could push the Fed to raise rates even higher than already expected. The forecast for February’s CPI is 6%, an improvement from January’s 6.4%. Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components and is seen as a better underlying indicator than the headline measure, is projected to rise 5.4% from February 2022 and 0.4% from a month earlier. The Fed’s inflation target, which takes in more than just the CPI reading, is 2%. Fed DecisionThe market is pricing in a September peak in interest rates at 5.4%, nearly a percentage point above the current effective federal funds rate. Traders are preparing for the possibility of the Fed returning to jumbo rate hikes, with overnight index swaps pricing in about 31 basis points of tightening later this month. Of course, the Fed’s forward expectations and Powell’s comments after the decision will affect market sentiment. But it’s about big misses, like inflation readings coming in much hotter than expected, that would derail the stock market’s recovery attempts, according to Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird. “If the terminal rate goes from 5% to 5.5%, that will be a headwind, but it won’t crater the stock market the way it did last year,” Antonelli said in a phone interview. “Last year, we didn’t know what the worse-case scenarios was going to look like, but this year the window of potential outcomes is much narrower. And investors like that.” ------------------------------------ Comment: Market is relatively stuck at " NEUTRAL" (looking at my current analysis data). There will be some exceptions as undervalued securities become available. We normally will find them in the insiders buying activity. Monitoring the " SELLING" of stock in any security should be considered a " RED FLAG" and we should take notice if holding that security. One of my securities I have always considered undervalued is FSK (look back for previous pro/con comments by all of our investors). FSK pays >10% dividend and has a book value greater than the current MktPrc of 19.94. Current Buying on FSK is below: As of 11:59pm ET March 5th, 2023Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction Volume or Value Price Mar 3/23 Mar 2/23 Pietrzak Daniel Indirect Ownership Common Stock P - Open market or private purchase 5,000 $19.66
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Mar 6, 2023 1:00:45 GMT
Thank you, x.
I'm not seeing much insider buying across the market and what there is seems to be on the low end of historical range. In addition to your FSK, I see the following as potentially interesting (not necessarily in order of interest): WIW, MMT, PHK, GDMN, FPEI, ABR, CNLPL, PAXS, CMRE-B, GUT, TNP-E, MITTpB, NEE, FTF, UNG
Already hold good sized positions in PHK and UNG (of course) but will probably acquire something new this week. My position in BOAT is doing very well, but it has already had a good run and am not apt to buy more.
Be well.
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Post by fritzo489 on Mar 6, 2023 2:34:32 GMT
xray, Thank you for the report.
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Post by xray on Mar 12, 2023 18:31:01 GMT
uncleharley, Norbert, Chahta, richardsok, anitya, FD1000, win1177, Interesting data for this past week (IMHO).... The market basically crashed but not for that many dividend oriented investors. Of course, it always depends on what we are tracking and what is in our portfolio's. We must keep in mind that we are collecting >10% dividends and/or distributions and the current charts will not reflect this phenomenon. Looking at my current data, 65% (on average) of our portfolio's CEF's are doing better than the start of the 4th Qtr of 2022. Some will probably be doing much better and the problem is what shares should probably be reduced or sold out (looking at the current analysis data) ? The CEF " USA" which represents most of what I follow is still positive so current analysis prevails IMHO.... Observing the current NAV's and book values, not much should be reduced at this point buy " CAUTION" should be exercised as none of us can ever predict a " PANIC" type market environment.... Observing this article: ------------------------- Bloomberg Stock Market Faces a Critical Moment on Anniversary of Fed HikesJessica Menton and Elena Popina Sun, March 12, 2023, 10:00 AM EDT (Bloomberg) -- A year after the Federal Reserve kicked off its most aggressive interest-rate hiking cycle in decades, the US stock market is at a pivotal stage, with jittery investors needing soothing more than ever. The S&P 500 Index tumbled more than 4% last week, the most since September, after the collapse of high-profile Silicon Valley lender SVB Financial Group sparked fears of additional risks hiding on other banks’ balance sheets. Meanwhile, questions are swirling around the Fed’s policy path as the central bank enters its quiet period before its March 22 rate decision. With Fed officials silent, all eyes are on Tuesday’s release of the consumer price index, after last week’s jobs data signaled inflation may be cooling. It sets the stage for a make-or-break stretch for stocks leading up to the central bank’s announcement and Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent discussion of the path forward. “There’s heightened sensitivity among investors to the CPI data, especially given what’s happening in the banking sector and concerns that the Fed’s interest-rate cycle is starting to have rippling effects throughout the economy,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management. “This is somewhat of a fragile time for equities.”The CPI report is expected to give further evidence of ebbing inflation pressures, with forecasts calling for an annual growth rate of 6% in February, down from 6.4% in January. Should that be the case, it could strengthen reemerging bets in the swaps market that the Fed will end its tightening campaign around mid-year and cut rates by year-end, laying the foundation for an equities rebound in the second half of 2023.Risky DaysIt’s been a brutal year for stocks since the Fed began its tightening campaign on March 16, 2022. Rising rates dented the allure of technology and growth shares for most of last year, with the Nasdaq 100 Index plunging 33% in its largest drop since 2008. The S&P 500 also posted its biggest annual decline since the global financial crisis, tumbling 19%.Stocks rallied to start 2023, but have since come back down, with the S&P 500 essentially flat for the year. So this week’s economic figures carry plenty of risk. Any sign that inflation is still stubbornly elevated may reignite bets on a more hawkish Fed, putting pressure on expensive corners of the stock market, such as technology. At the end of last week, swaps traders downshifted wagers on the Fed’s peak rate to roughly 5.3% at midyear from as high as 5.7% in September just days earlier. That shift fueled the biggest tumble in two-year Treasury yields since 2008. Traders are also now favoring a quarter-point Fed increase this month instead of a half, from its current range of 4.5%-4.75%.In addition, near-term anxiety is on full display in stocks. A gauge of projected S&P 500 turbulence over the next two weeks — which includes updates on CPI and producer prices, the Fed decision and S&P Global services PMI data — is hovering near 25, some 3.2 points above the expected volatility two months from now. That’s the widest gap since October.“The jobs data together with the inflation print and the Fed’s rate decision will give investors a good sense of how the Fed’s path to price stability is going to look,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. The key issue facing Wall Street is how close the Fed is to ending its rate increases — a juncture that historically has delivered double-digit returns for equities. The past eight hiking cycles saw the Fed continue to lift its benchmark until it was above CPI, according to Carson Investment Research. That means there still could be more room for the Fed to lift rates to tame high prices. “ This is a very nervous market, but the Fed’s medicine is working,” said Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance. It takes one to two years for rate hikes to filter “through the economy so the next few months will probably be bumpy for stock investors.”--------------------------- Comment: We live in interesting times. Current data shows CAPL, GLP, LGI, MFD, RITM, RVT (back at the magic insider buy price of <14), EDF, EDI (EDI being rolled into EDF and the new distribution policies are now in effect and the NAV should grow this year) doing very well against 4th Qtr data of 2022 while paying their dividends and distributions (according to current analysis data). Can never predict the future market though.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 14, 2023 13:20:52 GMT
The premium for PDI in pre-market trading is about 5%. Just an observation.
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Post by chang on Mar 14, 2023 14:08:11 GMT
The premium for PDI in pre-market trading is about 5%. Just an observation. That simply amazes me for an asset trading at a lifetime (11 year) low. When it gets to a 15% discount, send me a message somebody.
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Post by xray on Mar 19, 2023 17:38:17 GMT
richardsok, mnfish, fritzo489, uncleharley, chang, Bloomberg Bullish Sign Is Flashing for Some as Stocks Skirt the PrecipiceJessica Menton and Elena Popina Sat, March 18, 2023, 11:27 AM EDT (Bloomberg) -- For all the bank collapses, the plunging bond yields, the hammering in oil and mining stocks and day-in, day-out volatility, Adam Sarhan puts this week in the win column.Why?“The stock market had every chance to crater, but didn’t,” said Sarhan, author of the book Psychological Analysis: How to Make Money, Outsmart the Market, and Join the Smart Money Circle and founder of 50 Park Investments. “That’s bullish.”Whether the resilience persists is largely in the hands of the Federal Reserve, whose attitude toward interest rates is the root cause of all the turbulence - and could be what calms it down. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index soared 5.8% for its best week since November even with a pivotal Fed meeting coming and a ninth straight rate increase expected. But after a year of bemoaning the central bank’s monetary policy tightening, investors now view further rate hikes as a sign of confidence in the economy and financial system. “Some people think the equity market would take it very poorly if the Fed didn’t raise rates,” said Mimi Duff, managing director at GenTrust. “In order to land the plane, there’s going to be some turbulence.”Even if a spiraling crisis of confidence in the US banking system rattled investors, the moves in the Cboe Volatility Index didn’t necessarily show that. The VIX, Wall Street’s leading fear gauge, closed at 25.5 on Friday, below its average level last year. And a look at the so-called skew of the VIX also shows that anxiety is starting to subside.
The cost of protection against gains in the VIX over the next month has been subsiding since March 10, when the crisis in the banking system became apparent. Implied volatility in contracts betting on a drop in the fear gauge over the next month has gone up. Long TechSarhan of 50 Park is long US equities in the near-term, including battered tech and growth shares like chip stocks and some brokerage firms, such as Charles Schwab Corp. Investors have been snapping up classic tech growth companies like Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Apple Inc. that are known for their stability and strong cash flows. The Russell 1000 Growth Index jumped 4.1% this week while its value counterpart sank 1.7%, the biggest gap between the two since 2001.Even with all the turmoil in the banking sector, markets aren’t anticipating the Fed to turn dovish all of a sudden. Traders are expecting a quarter-point hike next week to a range of 4.75% to 5%. They also anticipate the policy rate peaking in May.The catch for growth stocks is inflation remains an obstacle, meaning the Fed will likely be pressured to keep hiking well beyond Wednesday’s meeting, said Brian Frank, portfolio manager of the Frank Value Fund. He suggests buying beaten-down energy stocks — typically viewed as a hedge against inflation — after the group shed 7% this week as US oil prices slumped.A key focus for investors will be the the Fed’s guidance for the months ahead. In particular, they’ll look for any change in the latest quarterly rates projections, known as the dot plot, after some officials suggested it may be appropriate to slow the pace of hikes if wage growth cools, which it’s showing signs of doing. Economists at Barclays Plc led by Marc Giannoni estimate that the median of the dot plot will show a peak in 2023 of 5.1%. That’s in line with what officials projected at their December meeting. “The market rallied at some points this week, acting like SVB and Credit Suisse were a one-off and the banking system can tolerate that, but I don’t agree,” Frank said. “I’ve lost a bit of sleep over this. I’m still not convinced everything is fine. I haven’t bought a bank stock since 2008.” ---------- Comment: 1... Observing current analysis data, the above article is in line with what I am observing currently. Some insider buying is starting to occur on "selective" securities while "many" others still have no insider buying activity currently occurring. Examples of some current announcements: ARCC insiders bought 6,000sh between 17.44 to 17.50, FSK 12,000sh so far in March between 17.45 to 19.69, HESM increased their dividend to $0.5696/Qtr, HQH and HQL re-issued their 12% repurchase program to July/2024 to increase their NAV and reduce their discount.... 2... There are "serious" banking issues that will not disappear overnight. We must keep in mind that in the past 20th century a bank run took week's/months to play out completely but currently (in this century with websites, etc) will take only hours/days/weeks to play out. Some securities will never return to their previous MktPrc's while others will increase over their previous mktPrc's substantially.... 3... Some MktPrc's are increasing well over the October crash numb3rs and thus signaling that there is some investor activity in buying these type securities at current levels. However, always however's, careful analysis of these securities needs to be done with continual monitoring going forward. A word to the "wise investor": Monitor the NAV and Book value and "NEVER" MarketPrc where the traders and hedge fund investors are. Monitor the insiders carefully and Buy (if/when analysis shows opportunity) and sell accordingly.... 4... Many savers at small banks are currently moving their money to the bigger banks (like the banks in the 2008 crash) for safety and this will take a while to play out (as the word gets out).... 5... Everything is not fine for investors but dividend oriented investors could find that the securities in our portfolio's are paying us a "overvalued" dividend (against older dividend announced policies) and making sleeping at night very tolerable.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 19, 2023 19:03:10 GMT
Thanks xray..
R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 19, 2023 19:09:42 GMT
The premium for PDI in pre-market trading is about 5%. Just an observation. That simply amazes me for an asset trading at a lifetime (11 year) low. When it gets to a 15% discount, send me a message somebody. Perhaps you are not putting any "premium or value" on the fact PDI has been paying a special year-end dividend annually. Like, +3% last December. This huge percent extra is not easily accounted for in NAV prices of underlying assets...hence the premium/discount a little misleading. Put another way, many shareholders will "pay-up" for this extra dividend. Second point. Many junk bonds/higher yielding FI funds have a declining price to them over the years. Like (high junk Quality)VWEHX price declines each decade, even in a dropping rate environment. So trading at an eleven year low, should be expected going forward in rising rate environment. One accounts for this in investing choices. The key is what is total return. A retiree should view these leverage CEFs as getting a (PDI) yield of 13%...or 14%...or 15%, and an annual price loss of 1-2%. Reinvesting dividends in graphs shows this constant upward value over the years. R48
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Post by chang on Mar 19, 2023 20:09:20 GMT
What “good” bonds yield 15% without ROC? Most of my investments are taxable. This sounds horribly tax inefficient. Never mind you’re paying them 2%+ ER just to give you your money back?
Good luck, but I’m not seeing it. I’ll buy at 15% discounts when the streets are awash in blood and sell when the discount closes. Otherwise, nah.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 19, 2023 20:46:05 GMT
What “good” bonds yield 15% without ROC? Most of my investments are taxable. This sounds horribly tax inefficient. Never mind you’re paying them 2%+ ER just to give you your money back? Good luck, but I’m not seeing it. I’ll buy at 15% discounts when the streets are awash in blood and sell when the discount closes. Otherwise, nah. If the chart below is accurate, since inception PDI price was at about 3% discount only twice. Nothing close to 5-10%. Attachments:
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 20, 2023 0:48:07 GMT
My two (opinions) beliefs:
1. If you’re a spend down investor, trader, scheme investor or market timer etc. undervalued, overvalued determined by an individual with absolutely no mirror on what tomorrow will ever bring you basically are paying your money and taking your chances. Thats investing so why argue a personal locked in method opinion or what happened in the past. Your going to wait this out for who knows how long our cut back your spending for a indeterminant time because you don’t have many options. I hope you are piling money into equities so you can be rewarded? down the line. Cash and 3% bonds aren’t so hot when living in a 5% inflation environment.
2.Income investors just keep piling up more income at any price because too much greed is a trait of #1. I hope this lasts for years. Of course who knows. Many of those premiums and discounts for CEF’s, since that is the subject currently, hardly ever move so choosing an artificial number in which to invest is a dart throw. Make sure to factor in the loss of purchasing power for the last 13 months and see what that adds up to and what the obvious solution might be to stop the hemorrhaging.
Here’s how premiums and discounts affected our monthly and periodic investments initially started in 2009-2010 so far ignoring those metrics. We’re about 10% down on costs since 2009-2010 because of reinvestment above our needs with no loss of purchasing power to inflation. The key benefit of some income investing is cash always flows (adding to SS cash) at least slowing down your long range material loss of principle (your savings) and purchasing power. Cash has a negative return, equities are stuck in the mud, 3% bonds are losing 2% of your purchasing power currently and all may have to be cashed or spent some at value losses. An investment with a 6%+ distribution (again since you’re discussing CEF’s) probably doesn’t have to ever be cashed for it’s principle value depending on your personal inflation rate (72/3?) adding to monthly SS. If excess income to needs exists it can be compounded at 6% rates or elsewhere. Heirs or a LTC facility can have the values. In our case waiting for the perfect moment to invest which is probably unrecognizable doesn’t matter and never will.
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Post by johnsmith on Mar 20, 2023 2:15:25 GMT
What “good” bonds yield 15% without ROC? Most of my investments are taxable. This sounds horribly tax inefficient. Never mind you’re paying them 2%+ ER just to give you your money back? Good luck, but I’m not seeing it. I’ll buy at 15% discounts when the streets are awash in blood and sell when the discount closes. Otherwise, nah. If the chart below is accurate, since inception PDI price was at about 3% discount only twice. Nothing close to 5-10%. Your are correct, PDI doesn't really trade very often at a huge discount.
Though, considering that a lot of the embedded gains from the busted MBS that PDI had during the GFC should have mostly rolled off, there might not be many gains left, I'd have to look closely to figure that out.
Also considering if there is a steep fall in the market generally, it is highly likely that chang might actually see his 10 - 15% discount this time around, even if it is ever so briefly.
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Post by newtecher on Mar 20, 2023 2:55:25 GMT
If the chart below is accurate, since inception PDI price was at about 3% discount only twice. Nothing close to 5-10%. PDI traded at 7 to 8% discount in 2013 and 2015. See the pricing information tab at www.cefconnect.com/fund/PDI
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 20, 2023 15:46:25 GMT
What “good” bonds yield 15% without ROC? Most of my investments are taxable. This sounds horribly tax inefficient. Never mind you’re paying them 2%+ ER just to give you your money back? Good luck, but I’m not seeing it. I’ll buy at 15% discounts when the streets are awash in blood and sell when the discount closes. Otherwise, nah. chang...my bold added above, re 2% ER. Perhaps you are unaware this is not the true ER you are familiar with. The SEC requires funds to add into expenses the interest it pays on borrowed money creating leverage. This is different than mgmt expenses etc. Don't be misled on high CEF ERs, when leveraged. R48
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Post by chang on Mar 20, 2023 16:02:19 GMT
What “good” bonds yield 15% without ROC? Most of my investments are taxable. This sounds horribly tax inefficient. Never mind you’re paying them 2%+ ER just to give you your money back? Good luck, but I’m not seeing it. I’ll buy at 15% discounts when the streets are awash in blood and sell when the discount closes. Otherwise, nah. chang ...my bold added above, re 2% ER. Perhaps you are unaware this is not the true ER you are familiar with. The SEC requires funds to add into expenses the interest it pays on borrowed money creating leverage. This is different than mgmt expenses etc. Don't be misled on high CEF ERs, when leveraged. R48 Yes I am fully aware: Fees & Expenses Management Fee 1.10% Total Expense Ratio (excluding interest expense) 2.00% Total Expense Ratio (including interest expense) 2.64%But why should I pay borrowing fees for leverage, when I am also holding more conservative investments? To me, leverage is when you want/need to invest more money, but don't have it. I have it, but I don't want to invest more. Anyway, these CEFs are not just expensive, they are terribly performing ROC vehicles. I may be wrong, but I don't need them. When discounts drop to 15%, like munis during the Whitney Bottom, I will load up on them. PDI at an all-time low: LINK to chart
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 21, 2023 4:30:36 GMT
chang ,...who posted: "Anyway, these CEFs are not just expensive, they are terribly performing ROC vehicles. I may be wrong, but I don't need them." -------------------------------------------------------------- I'm not sure I recall any PDI dividends being any ROC. No ROC...but I have not viewed full PDI history since inception. R48
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Post by Chahta on Mar 21, 2023 12:42:59 GMT
Certain investment products aren’t appealing to certain personalities. Everyone has their limits. My example is many amateurs invest in cash, CD’s and standard bonds for safety disregarding the loss of purchasing power for an unknown time period like now. We hold a large position in VWAHX which being a municipal bond fund currently yields 3%+ tax free in a 5%+ inflationary period, duh. That’s LTC money for us though, so we don’t need it yet or ever. My parents held 12% CD’s in the 70’s and were still losing money at times to inflation which averaged 7%+. Of course our VTI is stuck in the mud probably smilier to other equity types. The facts are anything yielding less then 5% now whether using CD’s, conventional bonds or hoping to trade for 5%+ gains consistently enough to make a difference for an unknown time period seems awfully tough and taxing. I guess being simple minded all I have to know is 6 is higher then 5 and every investment we ever held was flawed. But everyone has their own personal inflation rate. I’m not driving as much as I used to. No mortgage. I don’t eat as much as I once did. I’m not talking about skinflint mode. As long as that 4% is buying more shares each month then income is increasing too. That 4% is an increase from 2% last year so it gets inflation adjusted as well. There comes a time when a person with little or no savings that is on SS gets swamped. Not so much those with adequate savings.
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Post by Capital on Mar 21, 2023 13:10:57 GMT
Certain investment products aren’t appealing to certain personalities. Everyone has their limits. My example is many amateurs invest in cash, CD’s and standard bonds for safety disregarding the loss of purchasing power for an unknown time period like now. We hold a large position in VWAHX which being a municipal bond fund currently yields 3%+ tax free in a 5%+ inflationary period, duh. That’s LTC money for us though, so we don’t need it yet or ever. My parents held 12% CD’s in the 70’s and were still losing money at times to inflation which averaged 7%+. Of course our VTI is stuck in the mud probably smilier to other equity types. The facts are anything yielding less then 5% now whether using CD’s, conventional bonds or hoping to trade for 5%+ gains consistently enough to make a difference for an unknown time period seems awfully tough and taxing. I guess being simple minded all I have to know is 6 is higher then 5 and every investment we ever held was flawed. But everyone has their own personal inflation rate. I’m not driving as much as I used to. No mortgage. I don’t eat as much as I once did. I’m not talking about skinflint mode. As long as that 4% is buying more shares each month then income is increasing too. That 4% is an increase from 2% last year so it gets inflation adjusted as well. There comes a time when a person with little or no savings that is on SS gets swamped. Not so much those with adequate savings. Chahta, I will be joining you in about 6 months on the "no mortgage" band wagon. What I have noticed is that by having a fixed payment mortgage there is no significant inflation increase on housing cost. That goes a long way toward making inflation more palatable for a homeowner.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 21, 2023 13:22:03 GMT
But everyone has their own personal inflation rate. I’m not driving as much as I used to. No mortgage. I don’t eat as much as I once did. I’m not talking about skinflint mode. As long as that 4% is buying more shares each month then income is increasing too. That 4% is an increase from 2% last year so it gets inflation adjusted as well. There comes a time when a person with little or no savings that is on SS gets swamped. Not so much those with adequate savings. Chahta, I will be joining you in about 6 months on the "no mortgage" band wagon. What I have noticed is that by having a fixed payment mortgage there is no significant inflation increase on housing cost. That goes a long way toward making inflation more palatable for a homeowner. Maybe the insurance and tax components are up due to inflation. We get reassessed every 4 years. 2021 was year 4 so the assessed value was up. But the rate was adjusted so the increase was about 13% over 4 years. Now the adjustable rate loans…ouch!
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 21, 2023 13:49:26 GMT
Chahta , That’s right. If one is ok now great. I deleted that post as maybe to snarky. My gut, past experience and others’ thoughts point to a recession in a year or year and a half. Layoffs are picking up, banks are restricting loans and FED raises will kick in about uthen. The average recovery is 2.5 years. With no further blows to the economy that’s maybe 4 years of blah. I prepared for the worse and it worked so far. We spend the same or a little more. We’re in the slow go years but not ready to throw in the towel.
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 21, 2023 13:59:53 GMT
Chahta , Capital , I immediately took our paid off mortgage money and purchased a lot with a plan to build another house, made the same payment for about 8 years and paid everything off when that house was finished, moved and retired. My point was not to be tempted to increase my lifestyle until we both retired and got the feel of the new lifestyle. Pertaining to the OP there is and never will be a “perfect” time for any financial move. It’s sorta the universal excuse not to make a decision. The more tools you have to use the easier it is to adapt to imperfection. *Skinflint mode is the first choice of ones with few tools. Lol.
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