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Post by anitya on Dec 26, 2022 20:14:55 GMT
The article’s goal seems to be to keep us interested in investing at Fidelity brokerage rather than putting our money in an online savings account or bank CDs. The article articulate its goals pretty well. I hardly ever used Fido funds, because I can find better ones. Why would anyone use saving accounts or bank CD? Discount brokers MM+CD+tresuries are better. Banks have hardly anything to offer for smart investors. I never invested at my bank, except once. Several weeks ago, Regions offered me $500 if I deposit $1500 for 6 months, it's a safe 33% return for 6 months. I don't get out of bed for $200-300, especially when banks want me to deposit $10K-15K for 6 months. If your goal is to crowd out everybody else from participating in this forum, you are doing very well. |
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Post by Chahta on Dec 27, 2022 16:21:36 GMT
A snippet from a recent Fido newsletter: "The opportunities provided by higher rates could be short-lived. Getting inflation under control is the focus of Fed policy in the months ahead, but the central bank also wants to make sure it has room to cut rates if the economy goes into recession, potentially in 2023. Rate cuts are the most powerful tools the Fed has to stimulate economic growth and the central bank wants to be able to make impactful cuts when necessary. That could mean that the opportunity to add low-risk, high-yielding bonds to your income strategy may not be there if you wait too long."www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/bond-market-outlook?ccsource=email_weekly_ATSounds like a 'long-term' perspective to me. I do agree that the time to buy bonds is now. The opportunity to buy 4% Treasuries will not be around long, that is unless inflation takes off again. I believe that a year from now those with 4+% locked in will be very happy. |
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Post by mozart522 on Dec 28, 2022 13:33:46 GMT
R48 - I think you are right that the 10 year at 4% was a keeper. Any thoughts on where we go now with the 2 year vice 10 year. Well, hedge guru David Tepper just said he will "short bonds (and stocks), and thinks the 2 yr yield (now about 4.25%) will go up to match the fed 5.1+% terminal rate target. If 2 yr yield goes a little lower, I may sell some and wait. Ditto longer term treasuries I own. One thing that keeps coming back to me, is no-one is talking about the value in ones portfolio! Instead of trying to catch the ultimate lows to buy...or cyclic highs to sell, a useful mantra may be this: "If the bond you are locking in will suit your portfolio well, then buy it." At 1 to 2% yields few could say this. At 4% as I discussed it becomes a good value proposition for many. Easy to say the 10 year should go to above 4% and towards 5%...but how many billions and billions will flow in, buying same, and limiting the yield increase? Next go-around, may be huge demand for 4+% LT yields. I'm just navigating best I can, trying to lock in decent rates in treasuries. Then with recession likely next year, or bankruptcies, corporate bonds, at even higher rates, will selloff and be a good opportunity. I will then switch some monies to them. At least that's my gameplan. R48 I sold my VGLT before Christmas with a nice profit. It has been tanking ever since. I will be a buyer again at the pause. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 1, 2023 16:38:16 GMT
Well, hedge guru David Tepper just said he will "short bonds (and stocks), and thinks the 2 yr yield (now about 4.25%) will go up to match the fed 5.1+% terminal rate target. If 2 yr yield goes a little lower, I may sell some and wait. Ditto longer term treasuries I own. One thing that keeps coming back to me, is no-one is talking about the value in ones portfolio! Instead of trying to catch the ultimate lows to buy...or cyclic highs to sell, a useful mantra may be this: "If the bond you are locking in will suit your portfolio well, then buy it." At 1 to 2% yields few could say this. At 4% as I discussed it becomes a good value proposition for many. Easy to say the 10 year should go to above 4% and towards 5%...but how many billions and billions will flow in, buying same, and limiting the yield increase? Next go-around, may be huge demand for 4+% LT yields. I'm just navigating best I can, trying to lock in decent rates in treasuries. Then with recession likely next year, or bankruptcies, corporate bonds, at even higher rates, will selloff and be a good opportunity. I will then switch some monies to them. At least that's my gameplan. R48 I sold my VGLT before Christmas with a nice profit. It has been tanking ever since. I will be a buyer again at the pause. ...,Nice. From google...How many movements does Mozart Symphony No 40 have? Answer: four. From R48...And what is brown and sits on a piano?? Answer: Mozart's fifth movement! Be careful your fifth trade in 2023. R48 |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 22, 2023 16:04:15 GMT
Short posts because I lack time.
Had worst week of my life:
--103 year old Mother-in-law died.
--spouse discharged from hospital/rehab to hospice care.
--I got COVID! Took paxlovid antiviral and worked quickly, dropping fever temp to normal. Now having minor bounce-back covid that paxlovid takers can get. I'm on an uptrend.
But hey, must take the bad news with the good...such as:
--Had a PSA (prostate cancer) test and got a ZERO.
--treasury bond yields continued to fall, so those who followed my guidance of six weeks ago to buy 5 yr treasuries (VGIT), and more aggressive investors, use TLT (twenty year treasuries) now have an excellent capital gain. "Hoddlers" and traders may consider taking some TLT off the table now.
R48
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 22, 2023 16:23:47 GMT
retiredat48, very sorry to hear the bad news. Aging is hard.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2023 16:46:25 GMT
retiredat48, I am so sorry. Hang in there and if you need distraction, please give us your continued investing insights.
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 22, 2023 16:57:40 GMT
retiredat48 , very sorry to hear the bad news. Aging is hard. Amen to all of that! The only good thing about aging is that it beats the alternative! |
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Post by Chahta on Jan 22, 2023 17:20:49 GMT
Short posts because I lack time. Had worst week of my life: --103 year old Mother-in-law died. --spouse discharged from hospital/rehab to hospice care. --I got COVID! Took paxlovid antiviral and worked quickly, dropping fever temp to normal. Now having minor bounce-back covid that paxlovid takers can get. I'm on an uptrend. But hey, must take the bad news with the good...such as: --Had a PSA (prostate cancer) test and got a ZERO. --treasury bond yields continued to fall, so those who followed my guidance of six weeks ago to buy 5 yr treasuries (VGIT), and more aggressive investors, use TLT (twenty year treasuries) now have an excellent capital gain. "Hoddlers" and traders may consider taking some TLT off the table now. R48 Sorry for your loss and difficult times. I too took Paxlovid last year when I got Covid. An irritating side effect is the horrible taste 24/7. Some get it some don't. I had the horrible taste. My mom is 93 this year and I'm 71. It is a weird feeling to have someone around your entire life and realize you both are old. Somehow, I expect her to be around a long time yet I know reality. I hope your spouse is able to deal with that aspect. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2023 0:28:40 GMT
Short posts because I lack time. Had worst week of my life: --103 year old Mother-in-law died. --spouse discharged from hospital/rehab to hospice care. --I got COVID! Took paxlovid antiviral and worked quickly, dropping fever temp to normal. Now having minor bounce-back covid that paxlovid takers can get. I'm on an uptrend. But hey, must take the bad news with the good...such as: --Had a PSA (prostate cancer) test and got a ZERO. --treasury bond yields continued to fall, so those who followed my guidance of six weeks ago to buy 5 yr treasuries (VGIT), and more aggressive investors, use TLT (twenty year treasuries) now have an excellent capital gain. "Hoddlers" and traders may consider taking some TLT off the table now. R48 retiredat48, Sorry to hear about your loss, It sucks getting old and I am only 60 !!! |
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 2, 2023 18:45:15 GMT
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Post by rhythmmethod on Feb 2, 2023 20:05:52 GMT
retiredat48, I add to those thinking of you during these tender times. Take good care of yourself, and thank you for your many contributions over the years. - RM
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 15, 2023 16:09:04 GMT
I declare victory. Let the party begin; FD1000 also invited!
Victory as in my expectations that my ownership of VGSH (2 yr treasury bond fund) and VGIT (5 yr bond treasury fund) was to earn BOTH a capital gain, and earned interest. Today I have a capital gain and earning interest, in VGSG. Today, I have a relatively large capital gain in VGIT, and earning interest as we go. Beats FD's holding 100% in money market funds. My brother very happy he followed this guidance and bot VGIT!
R48
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2023 20:18:22 GMT
Below is the OP from Mar 23, 2022 at 1:19pm =========== I have a goodly amount of money in cash/short term investments, awaiting deployment. Patience is the code word for this money. A couple days ago, bond fund manager Jeff Gundlach recommended the two year Treasury bond as a good buy. Rate then was about 1.92%...yesterday close was 2.158%, partly in reaction to fed stating may go 50 basis points up in fed funds rate at next meeting. So is this a good buy...and is timing now? Also, what is a good Fund or ETF owning 2 year Treasuries? Gundlach had a graph showing historically, the fed funds rate and the 2 year Treasury followed very closely. Since the fed plans to increase rates 6 more times, and assuming one is 50 basis points, then the fed funds rate gets to 2% this year. Expect a two year treasury to be slightly higher rate. I also expect the ten year Treasury to peak around 2.6%...and note the 2/10 spread is very low; about 0.21% now. Over several decades, when I exited funds, in lieu of parking monies in MM Funds, I mostly bought long term corporate bond funds, taking a higher yield, and accepting that NAV fund price would float. Most of the time, I exited with small price gains, as well as higher interest received. Occasionally not so. But I captured more yield. So going out to two years is not a great risk to me. Like, I'll take the 2.16% interest for a year, and live with a floating fund price. That compares to a money market fund that may be 0.5% yield, and no price change.
Your thoughts? Timing now?...a good Fund/ETF? ===================== Let's check the results: 1) Fed funds in 2022 went to 4.1%...that's double+ than 2%. 2) 10 year treasury went to 4.2%...another huge miss 3) For one year VGSH is even with huge volatility while MM made 2.3% with zero volatility. Do a survey of several thousands investors and ask them what they prefer? Do you want to declare a victory? sure, if that makes you happy.  |
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Post by habsui on Mar 15, 2023 20:52:59 GMT
Where/when is the party? What will be served?
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Post by fishingrod on Mar 15, 2023 21:01:29 GMT
Where/when is the party? What will be served? What should I bring? |
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Post by archer on Mar 15, 2023 21:25:10 GMT
Where/when is the party? What will be served? What should I bring? Maybe some crow, just in case. I haven't yet been able to understand who for though. |
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Post by fishingrod on Mar 15, 2023 22:15:39 GMT
Maybe some crow, just in case. I haven't yet been able to understand who for though. Great!
I will fix a wonderful crow pie. I eat it regularly.
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 15, 2023 23:14:28 GMT
Maybe some crow, just in case. I haven't yet been able to understand who for though. Great!
I will fix a wonderful crow pie. I eat it regularly.
I'm sure the party will be a cold place...because: They said it will be a cold day in hell when anyone beats FD1000, for any length of time. FD is in money market fund now. BTW MMF rates will be falling out of bed quickly. My treasuries (and other posters who bought same) continue with our 4+% yield, and capital gains! And the treasury-direct ladder folks will do well also. OTOH let's party in my backyard in Florida...will be 78 degrees tomorrow, sunshine. Just up some intercoastal waterway from where Richardsok lives. Disclosure...to be fair, I count on FD to provide great under-the-hood analysis of funds...and his timing is usually top-shelf. R48 |
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2023 23:28:17 GMT
Funny post R48.
Where do you get your information I was in MM since 03/2022?
What matters is total portfolio risk-adjusted performance.
What did your portfolio make for one year?
Rates finally went down in the last 1-2 weeks and treasuries are doing great, but what has your portfolio done?
Next time I'm in Florida I will visit you, but it's not any time soon even if I live in GA. Last time I was there in 2021, after more than 15 years absent and because of COVID, so we had to travel locally.
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Post by mnfish on Mar 16, 2023 12:25:46 GMT
According to PortVis if you bought a "goodly amount" of VGSH, say $10k, in Mar 22 and added $5k every month, your annual returns for 2022 would have been -2.77% including $463 in interest. |
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Post by archer on Mar 16, 2023 15:01:38 GMT
It really isn't hard to track the TR of any fund. I don't know of any performance charts that do not assume distribution reinvestment. PV is the only one that I know of that even gives the option not to. This thread isn't the first to argue TR of a holding. How can this be when there isn't any conflicting performance data to support differing assessments?
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 17, 2023 3:35:16 GMT
According to PortVis if you bought a "goodly amount" of VGSH, say $10k, in Mar 22 and added $5k every month, your annual returns for 2022 would have been -2.77% including $463 in interest. But I did not buy VGSH this way. Also came a time I began buying extended maturities out to 5 yrs via buying VGIT. All VGIT trades profitable. R48 |
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 17, 2023 3:45:46 GMT
Funny post R48. Where do you get your information I was in MM since 03/2022? What matters is total portfolio risk-adjusted performance. What did your portfolio make for one year? Rates finally went down in the last 1-2 weeks and treasuries are doing great, but what has your portfolio done? Next time I'm in Florida I will visit you, but it's not any time soon even if I live in GA. Last time I was there in 2021, after more than 15 years absent and because of COVID, so we had to travel locally. I didn't say you were in MM since 3/22. You posted not too long ago that you had now gone to 100% MM Fund (after muny bond investing) as a good return with no risk. I posted I was going out to 5 yr treasuries to get both the interest and cap gains. I am ahead of you since. I didn't expect to get cap gains this fast; I posted often of needing a few key bankruptcies to get the flight to quality. Did not think it would be a couple banks leading the way...and so soon. Standby for some corporate bankruptcies also. Perhaps next is selective major REITs, especially NY City ones. I hear some REITs/properties privately changed hands for a dollar ($1). Either a good recession, or bankruptcies will result in me moving into corporate bond funds, and getting yields with a good spread over treasuries. And yes, FD, if you come to Florida, I'll buy lunch..at my golf clubhouse, overlooking a river that is 0.9 mile wide at the outside dining area.Good day. R48 |
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Post by Chahta on Mar 17, 2023 13:01:19 GMT
It really isn't hard to track the TR of any fund. I don't know of any performance charts that do not assume distribution reinvestment. PV is the only one that I know of that even gives the option not to. This thread isn't the first to argue TR of a holding. How can this be when there isn't any conflicting performance data to support differing assessments? Yahoo Finance tracks the NAV less distributions. You can also get that from M* chart if you change the data type to NAV. |
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Post by mnfish on Mar 17, 2023 13:19:22 GMT
retiredat48 , Apr 13, 2022 at 3:01pm by retiredat48 on Apr 13, 2022 at 3:01pm Closing price $59.24 $10k = 169sh = $144.00 reinvested.
Recently took a goodly starting position in VGSH May 4, 2022 at 11:43am Closing price $59.01 $10k = 169sh = $144.00 reinvested.Want to post this purchase close to "real time." Decided to buy, as a cash alternative, more 2 yr treasury bonds via VGSH Jun 14, 2022 at 3:47pm Closing price $58.29 $10k = 172sh = $135.00 reinvestedBought Vanguard's VGSH...Government Short Term Treasury Bond Fund(2 year treasuries), as a cash holding. Bought about five minutes before close. Sep 21, 2022 at 11:11pm Closing price $57.97Helping my recently retired brother convert his portfolio from growth to value and higher yield stuff. Today he bought some VGSH (2 yr treasury fund), dividing the buy into three parts. The first third was bought about an hour before fed announcement. With the 75 bps announcing, the 2 yr treasury yield zoomed upward (NAV price falling). Then quickly stopped, stabilized some, and yield resumed a decline. Brother bought remaining 2/3 at that turnaround time. He was "ahead" at the close. Closing price on March 15 was $58.53. Your brother and you may have a very small gain, (1% or so?) $30k invested in VMFXX money market would have produced $674 interest or a 2.2% gain in the same period.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 17, 2023 14:11:45 GMT
retiredat48 , Apr 13, 2022 at 3:01pm by retiredat48 on Apr 13, 2022 at 3:01pm Closing price $59.24 $10k = 169sh = $144.00 reinvested.
Recently took a goodly starting position in VGSH May 4, 2022 at 11:43am Closing price $59.01 $10k = 169sh = $144.00 reinvested.Want to post this purchase close to "real time." Decided to buy, as a cash alternative, more 2 yr treasury bonds via VGSH Jun 14, 2022 at 3:47pm Closing price $58.29 $10k = 172sh = $135.00 reinvestedBought Vanguard's VGSH...Government Short Term Treasury Bond Fund(2 year treasuries), as a cash holding. Bought about five minutes before close. Sep 21, 2022 at 11:11pm Closing price $57.97Helping my recently retired brother convert his portfolio from growth to value and higher yield stuff. Today he bought some VGSH (2 yr treasury fund), dividing the buy into three parts. The first third was bought about an hour before fed announcement. With the 75 bps announcing, the 2 yr treasury yield zoomed upward (NAV price falling). Then quickly stopped, stabilized some, and yield resumed a decline. Brother bought remaining 2/3 at that turnaround time. He was "ahead" at the close. Closing price on March 15 was $58.53. Your brother and you may have a very small gain, (1% or so?) $30k invested in VMFXX money market would have produced $674 interest or a 2.2% gain in the same period. +1 R48, 1) My HY Munis produced at least 12-13% since 03/2022 with almost no down days. Think how volatile was 2022. :-) 2) My YTD trades: bot early Jan, sold early Feb. Bot again at 99+% in bonds since mid of last week in the millions. All you got to do is follow my indicators. It has been one of the easiest period to make money because volatility is so high and why lows and highs are are so extreme. 3) You are correct that VGSH,VGIT made more than MM in 1.5 week but, my total portfolio made over 1%. Your total portfolio lost money because SPY lost over 2%, SCHD over 5% and PDI over 4%. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 17, 2023 14:52:01 GMT
FD1000,...why are you bringing SCHD and PDI into the measurements when this thread is titled: Is now the time for 2 yr treasury bond funds,FOR (one's)CASH. R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 17, 2023 15:09:38 GMT
retiredat48 , Apr 13, 2022 at 3:01pm by retiredat48 on Apr 13, 2022 at 3:01pm Closing price $59.24 $10k = 169sh = $144.00 reinvested.
Recently took a goodly starting position in VGSH May 4, 2022 at 11:43am Closing price $59.01 $10k = 169sh = $144.00 reinvested.Want to post this purchase close to "real time." Decided to buy, as a cash alternative, more 2 yr treasury bonds via VGSH Jun 14, 2022 at 3:47pm Closing price $58.29 $10k = 172sh = $135.00 reinvestedBought Vanguard's VGSH...Government Short Term Treasury Bond Fund(2 year treasuries), as a cash holding. Bought about five minutes before close. Sep 21, 2022 at 11:11pm Closing price $57.97Helping my recently retired brother convert his portfolio from growth to value and higher yield stuff. Today he bought some VGSH (2 yr treasury fund), dividing the buy into three parts. The first third was bought about an hour before fed announcement. With the 75 bps announcing, the 2 yr treasury yield zoomed upward (NAV price falling). Then quickly stopped, stabilized some, and yield resumed a decline. Brother bought remaining 2/3 at that turnaround time. He was "ahead" at the close. Closing price on March 15 was $58.53. Your brother and you may have a very small gain, (1% or so?) $30k invested in VMFXX money market would have produced $674 interest or a 2.2% gain in the same period. OK mnfish , let's examine this. I have some personal family challenges that is limiting my time, so I can't go back researching all my trades...HOWEVER: You have not included the VGIT (5 year treasury fund) purchases, which are up a lot in price. Further, I also moved some of the VGSH money into VGIT...
I previously posted that TO ME, TO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FED SITUATION OF HAVING TO RAISE RATES TO COMBAT INFLATION, SUCCESS IS DEFINED AS GETTING INTO LONGER TERM TREASURIES, LOCKING IN THE YIELDS. I also set a 4% yield threshold for purchasing same. (I will do similar with corp bond funds also...but later). I posted some purchases of VGIT real time on the B/S/W thread...but not all due time constraints. IOW I made it known when I was buying VGIT...and why. Yes, sitting in money market funds will get you temporarily a higher yield. But as we will see this can be fleeting, as the yields will likely fall next week and on. But I have "hop scotched" past 2 yr and getting into 5 yr, with the goal of 10 to 20 year treasury ownership...locking in rates. Ditto my brother. He's using a twenty year outlook for retirement planning, and if we can get him 4+ percent yield on 20 year treasury (think TLT), it is very tempting. And if you ask, what about inflation? Good question, That is being addressed by other holdings in his balanced allocation portfolio. R48 |
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 17, 2023 16:45:36 GMT
FD1000 ,...why are you bringing SCHD and PDI into the measurements when this thread is titled: Is now the time for 2 yr treasury bond funds,FOR (one's)CASH. R48 Because investors look at their whole portfolio. So yes, treasuries have done well in the last 1-2 weeks, they still trailed other bond funds since the market turned on 11/2022. BTW, just for info, what % of your total portfolio do you have in treasuries? 2-5%? |
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