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Post by chang on Aug 4, 2021 11:48:35 GMT
Thanks, I never saw that before. I checked VWALX and VWLUX and both are allegedly weak in Aug-Sep. Hence, shifting between them shouldn't matter. It might be theoretically advisable to simply sell VWLUX in August and use the proceeds to buy VWALX in October. Except that if I did that, it would guarantee the best Aug-Sep for munis in 25 years.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 4, 2021 11:52:50 GMT
VWALX is like core-plus (not a formal category) with 42% in "BBB & below+NR". That & a regular muni HY should be OK. Any near-term cash needs can be in inv-gr muni.
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Post by racqueteer on Aug 4, 2021 12:26:46 GMT
Thanks, I never saw that before. I checked VWALX and VWLUX and both are allegedly weak in Aug-Sep. Hence, shifting between them shouldn't matter. It might be theoretically advisable to simply sell VWLUX in August and use the proceeds to buy VWALX in October. Except that if I did that, it would guarantee the best Aug-Sep for munis in 25 years. Otoh, it might be good for your karma to perform a solid for others? 8^b
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 4, 2021 13:30:29 GMT
Hopefully, March 2020 never happens. But a look at how some of these funds did in March 2020 gives an idea of where and what the risks may be. It also tells us that VWALX is "core-plus muni", and not like other muni HY.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 4, 2021 14:57:03 GMT
Hopefully, March 2020 never happens. But a look at how some of these funds did in March 2020 gives an idea of where and what the risks may be. It also tells us that VWALX is "core-plus muni", and not like other muni HY. View AttachmentPer PV Backtest NHMAX max. DD recovered Mar 2021 VWALX max. DD recovered Nov 2020 PHMIX max DD recovered Dec 2020 VWLUX max. DD recovered Jul 2020
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Post by win1177 on Aug 5, 2021 16:55:18 GMT
I posted something about this on M* around a year ago, but now that I am moving more money into muni bonds, I'd like to hear fresh thoughts. To set the scene, I own PHMIX, VWALX, VWLUX in about a 7:8:4 ratio. Here is a chart showing these 3 plus VWIUX, and also the category. (I included the much more-popular VWIUX to show why I bought VWLUX instead.) I haven't bought/sold PHMIX in a long time. First, it's much more expensive than the VG funds. (I know that it has earned its cost and more, but obviously it is a higher risk fund. Also, the latest M* report says "Instability in the analyst ranks supporting this strategy are worthy of monitoring." I wish I could read the entire report, but I am not a premium member. Can anybody share it?) The question is really: should I move all money in VWLUX into VWALX? The truth is that both funds are pretty similar. Similar durations (6.2 / 6.0 years); VWALX has a TTM yield of 3.15% vs. VWLUX's 2.84%. Identical ERs and asset sizes. SEC yields are a bit different: 1.92% vs. 1.33%. VWALX has 17.6% AMT while VWLUX has none .... but I don't think that will affect me. My thinking is pretty simple: the new Administration will be favorable to assisting the states, and bankruptcies should be almost non-existent. Should I dump all VWLUX into VWALX, or is there any benefit in keeping it? My two cents are this (and worth maybe two cents): I am keeping about 1/3 of our bonds (in taxable accounts) in VWALX. The remaining 2/3 is in VWIUX, which is shorter in duration than VWLUX. With rates SO LOW, I worry about the increased interest rate risk with VWLUX over VWIUX. When rates start rising, I may change some VWIUX to VWLUX. I take my “risk” with equities. Win
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 6, 2021 20:55:03 GMT
I posted something about this on M* around a year ago, but now that I am moving more money into muni bonds, I'd like to hear fresh thoughts. To set the scene, I own PHMIX, VWALX, VWLUX in about a 7:8:4 ratio. Here is a chart showing these 3 plus VWIUX, and also the category. (I included the much more-popular VWIUX to show why I bought VWLUX instead.) I haven't bought/sold PHMIX in a long time. First, it's much more expensive than the VG funds. (I know that it has earned its cost and more, but obviously it is a higher risk fund. Also, the latest M* report says "Instability in the analyst ranks supporting this strategy are worthy of monitoring." I wish I could read the entire report, but I am not a premium member. Can anybody share it?) The question is really: should I move all money in VWLUX into VWALX? The truth is that both funds are pretty similar. Similar durations (6.2 / 6.0 years); VWALX has a TTM yield of 3.15% vs. VWLUX's 2.84%. Identical ERs and asset sizes. SEC yields are a bit different: 1.92% vs. 1.33%. VWALX has 17.6% AMT while VWLUX has none .... but I don't think that will affect me. My thinking is pretty simple: the new Administration will be favorable to assisting the states, and bankruptcies should be almost non-existent. Should I dump all VWLUX into VWALX, or is there any benefit in keeping it? My two cents are this (and worth maybe two cents): I am keeping about 1/3 of our bonds (in taxable accounts) in VWALX. The remaining 2/3 is in VWIUX, which is shorter in duration than VWLUX. With rates SO LOW, I worry about the increased interest rate risk with VWLUX over VWIUX. When rates start rising, I may change some VWIUX to VWLUX. I take my “risk” with equities. Win Except in a black swan event it's not worth holding VWIUX over VWALX. In my bond OEFs world, VWALX did better than VWIUX, PHMIX did nicely better than VWALX and MDYHX/MAYHX a lot better. In just one year, MAYHX made 11.5% more than VWIUX. But wait, you can see that in the last 2 weeks of 02/2011, rates were up quickly nicely, the max loss for VWALX,PHMIX,MAYHX is only 0.1% difference but MAYHX is so much better after that. This is my "FREE LUNCH" when SD is close but performance is so much better. I know, you make your performance in stocks. The above is for someone who looks to make more in bonds. Attachments:
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Post by chang on Aug 7, 2021 1:15:45 GMT
My two cents are this (and worth maybe two cents): I am keeping about 1/3 of our bonds (in taxable accounts) in VWALX. The remaining 2/3 is in VWIUX, which is shorter in duration than VWLUX. With rates SO LOW, I worry about the increased interest rate risk with VWLUX over VWIUX. When rates start rising, I may change some VWIUX to VWLUX. I take my “risk” with equities. Win I also make my money with equity, but I am roughly 50/50 for basic capital-preservation reasons. Hence, I have to do something with the 50% non-equity. I have cited my bond holdings before; won't repeat it. But as far as munis go, the charts simply don't lie: S/T and I/T munis have not been worth holding except for extremely limited time periods. Just graph VWSUX, VWIUX, VWLUX and VWALX on a rolling-return chart over 10-20 years, and you will see that VWALX knocks the others on their butts. The periods during which HY-L/T underperform are short, and the lag is always quickly reversed.
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