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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 17, 2022 0:33:38 GMT
This video is worth watching, only 14 minutes long. It says total market indexes (like SPY) are good but stay away from Cathie Wood style small cap growth. |
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jan 17, 2022 7:37:07 GMT
Great tip! I made a few links from there. thanks. steadyeddy |
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 17, 2022 11:49:13 GMT
This video is worth watching, only 14 minutes long. It says total market indexes (like SPY) are good but stay away from Cathie Wood style small cap growth. Well being an old school amateur investor I don’t really “play” the markets like I’m at a casino. I still see market timing as a losers proposition. Common sense dictates going against professional anything and computer algorithms specifically as an amateur investor virtually unarmed seems not the right tactic to follow. The right tactic to follow seems to be investing in an index like SPY which even professionals can’t best over time. Around 500 of the strongest companies in the world should be the most able to withstand the uneven course of world events, the made up daily speculation of financial gypsies or actual facts. So it makes sense to me amateurs should fair a lot worse then even the professionals. Gradually becoming more cautious as I age and having a secure monthly cash flow, VTI is our core equity holding currently tipped towards growth with investments in VOT and VUG. Play dates have been over for Grandpa for awhile now. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 17, 2022 14:26:49 GMT
This video is worth watching, only 14 minutes long. It says total market indexes (like SPY) are good but stay away from Cathie Wood style small cap growth. Well being an old school amateur investor I don’t really “play” the markets like I’m at a casino. I still see market timing as a losers proposition. Common sense dictates going against professional anything and computer algorithms specifically as an amateur investor virtually unarmed seems not the right tactic to follow. The right tactic to follow seems to be investing in an index like SPY which even professionals can’t best over time. Around 500 of the strongest companies in the world should be the most able to withstand the uneven course of world events, the made up daily speculation of financial gypsies or actual facts. So it makes sense to me amateurs should fair a lot worse. Gradually becoming more cautious as I age and having a secure monthly cash flow, VTI is our core equity holding currently tipped towards growth with investments in VOT and VUG. Play dates have been over for Grandpa for awhile now. , I am beginning to like your investment style. I too am using broad US total stock market as my core position - no tilt to either growth or value. Just a sprinkle of dev xUS and EM. I am also creating a farm of CEFs for long term hold (like PDI, DBL, DSL, BTZ, etc for broad multisector investing along with muni CEFs also). CEFs are a bit depressed right now due to interest rate uncertainity. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 17, 2022 16:19:37 GMT
Well being an old school amateur investor I don’t really “play” the markets like I’m at a casino. I still see market timing as a losers proposition. Common sense dictates going against professional anything and computer algorithms specifically as an amateur investor virtually unarmed seems not the right tactic to follow. The right tactic to follow seems to be investing in an index like SPY which even professionals can’t best over time. Around 500 of the strongest companies in the world should be the most able to withstand the uneven course of world events, the made up daily speculation of financial gypsies or actual facts. So it makes sense to me amateurs should fair a lot worse. Gradually becoming more cautious as I age and having a secure monthly cash flow, VTI is our core equity holding currently tipped towards growth with investments in VOT and VUG. Play dates have been over for Grandpa for awhile now. , I am beginning to like your investment style. I too am using broad US total stock market as my core position - no tilt to either growth or value. Just a sprinkle of dev xUS and EM. I am also creating a farm of CEFs for long term hold (like PDI, DBL, DSL, BTZ, etc for broad multisector investing along with muni CEFs also). CEFs are a bit depressed right now due to interest rate uncertainity. It was all just a problem to solve for me. I wasn’t looking for a retirement job. I mentioned I handled 2 parents finances from 1982-2017. I paralleled theirs and learned what happened in all those markets. Enough. I realized when stuff happens everything tanks so I could at least get paid from somewhere. The more risk I took the less I had to invest to get that cash flow. I’ve seem plenty of 30% downward market swoons which I still don’t like. Ha. Ha. Interest rates are going up and the S&P companies are best positioned for that but further down the line muni and conventional bond payouts may (should) rise along with CEF distributions. The down the line part gets sticky when you’re retired. That’s why I favor the bird in hand method as each year passes. I feel the importance for future unknown equity growth diminishes so it has become a secondary income source for us at this point. This momentary uncertainty is a small investing opportunity until the smoke clears. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2022 16:47:18 GMT
My ARTMX - Artisan Mid cap growth - has gone down the drain too. YTD = -11.61
Not yet decided what to do with it. Keep it and ride it out or sell it. I have the cheaper shares (er = 0.5%) in my retirement account.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 17, 2022 16:47:20 GMT
Well being an old school amateur investor I don’t really “play” the markets like I’m at a casino. I still see market timing as a losers proposition. Common sense dictates going against professional anything and computer algorithms specifically as an amateur investor virtually unarmed seems not the right tactic to follow. The right tactic to follow seems to be investing in an index like SPY which even professionals can’t best over time. Around 500 of the strongest companies in the world should be the most able to withstand the uneven course of world events, the made up daily speculation of financial gypsies or actual facts. So it makes sense to me amateurs should fair a lot worse. Gradually becoming more cautious as I age and having a secure monthly cash flow, VTI is our core equity holding currently tipped towards growth with investments in VOT and VUG. Play dates have been over for Grandpa for awhile now. , I am beginning to like your investment style. I too am using broad US total stock market as my core position - no tilt to either growth or value. Just a sprinkle of dev xUS and EM. I am also creating a farm of CEFs for long term hold (like PDI, DBL, DSL, BTZ, etc for broad multisector investing along with muni CEFs also). CEFs are a bit depressed right now due to interest rate uncertainty. Once you get used to CEF volatility you will be OK.  Me, I have opted for less income and less volatility with a sprinkle of CEFs for now. But the broad equity indexes are right on. I have tilted towards value with SCHD/SCHX. But do maintain some pure growth in a small amount. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 17, 2022 18:30:22 GMT
This video is worth watching, only 14 minutes long. It says total market indexes (like SPY) are good but stay away from Cathie Wood style small cap growth. Well for me steady, this represents a buying opportunity. Buy when others are fearful, and have given up on an asset class. So a year ago I charged one of my 47 yr old daughters to follow two spaces closely...genomics, and metaverse for her potential IRA buy. We concluded too high a price...wait. (We bought a small foothold bucket in ARKG).Now we had the huge drop in prices for Wood's holdings, the majority of actual investors have lost money, and selling out. And the ETF wrapper does not help things for Woods. Great opportunity to plan to buy these companies. Genomics considered an upcoming top growth area. Of course, many companies not profitable so far. And now Cramer et al saying don't buy companies w/no earnings There will be a day these companies/funds charts bottom out, and will start an uptrend. We plan to own some. BTW This same daughter has owned FSPTX Fido Select Technology Fund, since she was 12 years old. Can you imagine how many times over the decades we read that high tech is over...rotate out. Glad we did not. ARKG, here we come to clean up the mess! R48 |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 18, 2022 1:32:49 GMT
This video is worth watching, only 14 minutes long. It says total market indexes (like SPY) are good but stay away from Cathie Wood style small cap growth. Well for me steady, this represents a buying opportunity. Buy when others are fearful, and have given up on an asset class. So a year ago I charged one of my 47 yr old daughters to follow two spaces closely...genomics, and metaverse for her potential IRA buy. We concluded too high a price...wait. (We bought a small foothold bucket in ARKG).Now we had the huge drop in prices for Wood's holdings, the majority of actual investors have lost money, and selling out. And the ETF wrapper does not help things for Woods. Great opportunity to plan to buy these companies. Genomics considered an upcoming top growth area. Of course, many companies not profitable so far. And now Cramer et al saying don't buy companies w/no earnings There will be a day these companies/funds charts bottom out, and will start an uptrend. We plan to own some. BTW This same daughter has owned FSPTX Fido Select Technology Fund, since she was 12 years old. Can you imagine how many times over the decades we read that high tech is over...rotate out. Glad we did not. ARKG, here we come to clean up the mess! R48 , good perspective. Thanks for sharing. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2022 2:18:28 GMT
I did not watch the video, so apologies in advance. But from the comments - SPY - it is largely supported by 5 giant companies. How fast will they continue to grow and at what rate? Will TSLA revenues grow into its multiple? What growth drivers will propel AAPL and MSFT beyond 30+ p/e in a rising rate environment. GOOGL and FB have some room for multiple expansion. AMZN? What's the SPY yield - 1.23%. Inflation - let's be optimistic and say 5%. So SPY needs to return 6.23% this year to break even.
ARKG - I don't know anything about genomics. But I would ask - are any companies in this fund generating revenues? How dependent are their future on government regulation and approvals? I had some biotech stock I bought in the 80s. Was supposed to be a winner - just need the certain forthcoming FDA approval - you know what the outcome was. I still have that worthless paper certificate. Some of those companies might bottom out in ARKG and some will likely disappear.
Could be winners. Don't know enough - can this technology be leapfrogged before it even generates revenues? It's bound to be volatile. I hold FBIOX and it is plenty volatile. Do you have confidence in Cathy Wood?
I'm not a fan of Cramer, but think he is being responsible to tell his audience to look at companies with revenues and avoid those that do not. They are high risk/high reward. I think that is the message with something like ARKG - not that these wonderful things won't come to pass - but when and who? There still isn't a cure for cancer and the issue of battery storage hasn't been solved. I hope to see both in my lifetime, but won't be surprised if it takes a few more generations.
Edit - got the math wrong I think above - needs to return 3.77% + 1.23% to break even with inflation rate of 5%.
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galeno
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KISS & STC
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Post by galeno on Jan 18, 2022 12:16:00 GMT
You sing to the choir. Simplicity is bliss.
We became Bogleheads in 2005 and implemented its strategy starting Jan 2006.
We started with 5 ETFs. We're now down to 2. One for world stocks. One for world bonds.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 18, 2022 20:52:13 GMT
I did not watch the video, so apologies in advance. But from the comments - SPY - it is largely supported by 5 giant companies. How fast will they continue to grow and at what rate? Will TSLA revenues grow into its multiple? What growth drivers will propel AAPL and MSFT beyond 30+ p/e in a rising rate environment. GOOGL and FB have some room for multiple expansion. AMZN? What's the SPY yield - 1.23%. Inflation - let's be optimistic and say 5%. So SPY needs to return 6.23% this year to break even.ARKG - I don't know anything about genomics. But I would ask - are any companies in this fund generating revenues? How dependent are their future on government regulation and approvals? I had some biotech stock I bought in the 80s. Was supposed to be a winner - just need the certain forthcoming FDA approval - you know what the outcome was. I still have that worthless paper certificate. Some of those companies might bottom out in ARKG and some will likely disappear. Could be winners. Don't know enough - can this technology be leapfrogged before it even generates revenues? It's bound to be volatile. I hold FBIOX and it is plenty volatile. Do you have confidence in Cathy Wood? I'm not a fan of Cramer, but think he is being responsible to tell his audience to look at companies with revenues and avoid those that do not. They are high risk/high reward. I think that is the message with something like ARKG - not that these wonderful things won't come to pass - but when and who? There still isn't a cure for cancer and the issue of battery storage hasn't been solved. I hope to see both in my lifetime, but won't be surprised if it takes a few more generations. I don't trust any manager. At a very high % most of them make mistakes, or their style doesn't work, or market changed. Regardless, I sell immediately any lagging fund, since history and my trading record show that a lagging fund can stay that way for weeks-months, sometimes years. I used to try and understand and go deeper, but I realized, it's better to sell/replace first and then decide later. This is what we used in the military, first shoot, ask questions later. Over the years, several posters said "how can it be that great managers for years suddenly swallow a stupid pill". It happens all the time, several Dodge and COX stock funds lagged for years because growth was better than value. Pimco used to be a super star bond company, not anymore. PAUIX (Arnott) looked great in 2009, but terrible the next 10 years. The key is never to be attached to a company/manager/index. Inflation: I don't think most should think in these terms. If inflation is this and that, how much I need to make to break even. Most should concentrate on their goals and set their portfolio accordingly and not take extra risk. Of course, all the posters on all boards are crazy smart and only do the right things at the right time. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 18, 2022 22:10:30 GMT
We became Bogleheads in 2005 and implemented its strategy starting Jan 2006. Hey galeno, you're still a baby-boglehead. Does it matter if one became a boglehead and moved everything to Vanguard in 1974, the year Jack Bogle (RIP) founded it? BTW I am looking on my wall and see a priceless, framed NFT...at least priceless to me. It is handwritten and reads: "_______________, Congratulations on retiring at age 48, using Vanguard philosophies and techniques."
Signed...John Bogle------------------------------------ R48 |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2022 22:37:32 GMT
I did not watch the video, so apologies in advance. But from the comments - SPY - it is largely supported by 5 giant companies. How fast will they continue to grow and at what rate? Will TSLA revenues grow into its multiple? What growth drivers will propel AAPL and MSFT beyond 30+ p/e in a rising rate environment. GOOGL and FB have some room for multiple expansion. AMZN? What's the SPY yield - 1.23%. Inflation - let's be optimistic and say 5%. So SPY needs to return 6.23% this year to break even.ARKG - I don't know anything about genomics. But I would ask - are any companies in this fund generating revenues? How dependent are their future on government regulation and approvals? I had some biotech stock I bought in the 80s. Was supposed to be a winner - just need the certain forthcoming FDA approval - you know what the outcome was. I still have that worthless paper certificate. Some of those companies might bottom out in ARKG and some will likely disappear. Could be winners. Don't know enough - can this technology be leapfrogged before it even generates revenues? It's bound to be volatile. I hold FBIOX and it is plenty volatile. Do you have confidence in Cathy Wood? I'm not a fan of Cramer, but think he is being responsible to tell his audience to look at companies with revenues and avoid those that do not. They are high risk/high reward. I think that is the message with something like ARKG - not that these wonderful things won't come to pass - but when and who? There still isn't a cure for cancer and the issue of battery storage hasn't been solved. I hope to see both in my lifetime, but won't be surprised if it takes a few more generations. I don't trust any manager. At a very high % most of them make mistakes, or their style doesn't work, or market changed. Regardless, I sell immediately any lagging fund, since history and my trading record show that a lagging fund can stay that way for weeks-months, sometimes years. I used to try and understand and go deeper, but I realized, it's better to sell/replace first and then decide later. This is what we used in the military, first shoot, ask questions later. Over the years, several posters said "how can it be that great managers for years suddenly swallow a stupid pill". It happens all the time, several Dodge and COX stock funds lagged for years because growth was better than value. Pimco used to be a super star bond company, not anymore. PAUIX (Arnott) looked great in 2009, but terrible the next 10 years. The key is never to be attached to a company/manager/index. Inflation: I don't think most should think in these terms. If inflation is this and that, how much I need to make to break even. Most should concentrate on their goals and set their portfolio accordingly and not take extra risk. Of course, all the posters on all boards are crazy smart and only do the right things at the right time. Let me suggest one of "their goals" is expected inflation-adjusted return. Return projections for a decade out in the US are lower by enough "experts' to get my attention. Set it and forget it for decades in an index may or may not work. I'm not banking my future that it will. If it does - awesome. Inflation - yes - I need a higher return with higher inflation or deal with losing purchasing purchase if I don't increase risk. That's the choice. These are I think - you think conversations. No right - no wrong. And hell no, I don't have confidence in Cathy Wood. I think she is irresponsible. |
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Post by richardsok on Jan 18, 2022 23:03:52 GMT
"Another bunch of money just went to cash out of “fear” not facts because someone with a journalist degree says so. This is another of many buying opportunities."
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Rather, a bunch of money has been going to cash since low-volatility technicals started signaling SELL right at the start of the year. Your big equity positions have already netted a 5% loss since New Years. 1.5% of it lost today, whereas some of us technicians are up nicely.
Is this really a buying oppty, pony? I don't know. Neither do you. We might find support this week or equities might plummet another 10%. (Are we really sure the Fed won't over-play -- or under-play! -- its hand and mishandle tightening? Are we really confident a Ukraine calamity won't occur and crash European equities?) But I CAN be confident that if I limit my big positions to low-volatile assets like SPHD, USMV, FDLO, T ( to name a few) and trade them with discipline on their directional changes, my losses will be minimal and my bullish positions timely.
Whenever I fail it's because I have followed my opinions and not my signals.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 18, 2022 23:09:15 GMT
I'll go out on a limb and ring the bell. Ding Dong!! There, I don't want to hear anyone say that no one rang a bell at the top of this market.
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Post by jongaltiii on Jan 18, 2022 23:31:46 GMT
FD1000 I believe that I have a good handle on your momentum trading. However, when you say “Regardless, I sell immediately any lagging fund, since history and my trading record show that a lagging fund can stay that way for weeks-months, sometimes years.” … How does that work when in your system and other posts, you say that you only make fund changes a few times each year? Wouldn’t you be making a lot more changes … especially in volatile markets?
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galeno
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KISS & STC
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Post by galeno on Jan 19, 2022 0:20:46 GMT
Proud to be a Baby Boglehead. 15 years now. The bear market of 2000-2002 scared the cr*p out of my wife and I. Converted us to Bogleheadism. From 1995-2005 (11 yr) our 80/20 port beat the 100% SP500 by 6% CAGR. Our goal was to beat the market. I thought it was skill. I realized that it was due to my "strong hands" and good luck. We became Bogleheads in 2005 and implemented its strategy starting Jan 2006. Hey galeno, you're still a baby-boglehead. Does it matter if one became a boglehead and moved everything to Vanguard in 1974, the year Jack Bogle (RIP) founded it? BTW I am looking on my wall and see a priceless, framed NFT...at least priceless to me. It is handwritten and reads: "_______________, Congratulations on retiring at age 48, using Vanguard philosophies and techniques."
Signed...John Bogle------------------------------------ R48 |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 19, 2022 13:36:06 GMT
I don't trust any manager. At a very high % most of them make mistakes, or their style doesn't work, or market changed. Regardless, I sell immediately any lagging fund, since history and my trading record show that a lagging fund can stay that way for weeks-months, sometimes years. I used to try and understand and go deeper, but I realized, it's better to sell/replace first and then decide later. This is what we used in the military, first shoot, ask questions later. Over the years, several posters said "how can it be that great managers for years suddenly swallow a stupid pill". It happens all the time, several Dodge and COX stock funds lagged for years because growth was better than value. Pimco used to be a super star bond company, not anymore. PAUIX (Arnott) looked great in 2009, but terrible the next 10 years. The key is never to be attached to a company/manager/index. Inflation: I don't think most should think in these terms. If inflation is this and that, how much I need to make to break even. Most should concentrate on their goals and set their portfolio accordingly and not take extra risk. Of course, all the posters on all boards are crazy smart and only do the right things at the right time. Let me suggest one of "their goals" is expected inflation-adjusted return. Return projections for a decade out in the US are lower by enough "experts' to get my attention. Set it and forget it for decades in an index may or may not work. I'm not banking my future that it will. If it does - awesome. Inflation - yes - I need a higher return with higher inflation or deal with losing purchasing purchase if I don't increase risk. That's the choice. These are I think - you think conversations. No right - no wrong. And hell no, I don't have confidence in Cathy Wood. I think she is irresponsible. I agree that I want to do better than inflation, any sensible investor wants this. The bigger question is would I take any risk to achieve that? Would I change my goals and risk tolerance? The usual, if risk/SD doesn't bother you, then the answer is easy. But there are millions that look for a better solution. I like to search for solutions to meet my goals and stay within my risk/SD and that's a lot tougher but doable. In real life, it means that indexes can't fulfill all my goals and a much higher % in risky stuff isn't the solution. Example1: in my goals and comfort level is 50% in the last 10 years, instead of diversifying, I would be mostly in US LC growth. Example 2: Instead of investing in higher-rated bonds in 2021, I used Munis. Example 3: Munis are not doing well in the last several weeks, I replaced them. Bottom line: there are ways to stay withing your goals and AA and meet them. More stocks/CEFs/other risk aren't the only option. BTW, we don't know what inflation will be in 2-3-5 years, are we supposed to increase stocks already? I have seen over many years that most "experts" don't have out of the box solutions and many times "easy" or mean regression ones. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 19, 2022 14:00:39 GMT
FD1000 I believe that I have a good handle on your momentum trading. However, when you say “Regardless, I sell immediately any lagging fund, since history and my trading record show that a lagging fund can stay that way for weeks-months, sometimes years.” … How does that work when in your system and other posts, you say that you only make fund changes a few times each year? Wouldn’t you be making a lot more changes … especially in volatile markets? There are no set rules of how many times. The key is to follow the market and act accordingly. It's also an art. If you use my generic system, it's easy and mechanical. Example: you run the fund screener 3 times annually on a set date/week. You just buy the top 5 risk-adjusted performance funds from the top 1-2 categories. If you use my proprietary system based on actual real time markets, you will make more trades. This is where the art portion and experience play a lot more. You want to be in the right category, that's a given. Suppose you bought a fund in that category and a month later you see another fund within the same category, do you switch? not so fast, your fund has to be in the top 30%. Sometimes it's very easy. A good example is Munis. In the last several weeks they are losing money, I don't need to know anything, sold quickly. Never ever own a losing fund. A good generic typical example: In 2021 I started and maintain a thread called market observation( link) from early February to late November. Based on the above link, looking back and as of late November 2021. See post that summarize the thread ( link) I started with SP500+AIA+IWM On April 1: sold AIA+IWM and bought value (VOOV,VTV,SCHD). If you had growth, you sold it too. On June 25: sold value and bought growth (VOOG,VUG,QQQ). Basically, only traded twice in 2021 (as of 11/2021) while there were enough swings for many investors to make more changes. The key is to make very a few trades and understand what is a real change and what is not These trades don't guarantee the best performance, but they make sure for you to be in the right categories and may reduce volatility. A great example was EM stocks that include even better funds (such Matthews) than EEM. From 1-1-21 to 4-1-2021 EEM made 3.55%. Since April 1st (sold EM), EEM lost 5.33% while VFIAX(SP500) made 18%. This is 23% better + SP500 volatility was lower, too. Since April 1st (sold IWM), the SP500 did much better than IWM 18% vs 4%. Switching from value to growth on June 25 to late November was another great move. VOOG(growth) made 16% while VOOV made only 4.3%. This is almost 4 time more. ========== If I continue the thread, I would buy VALUE in mid-Dec Basically, the thread had 3 trades in 2021. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2022 14:05:59 GMT
If you "listen" to what the market tells you, yes you hear inflation will be higher over the next 5 years than what is has been for the last 10 (1.73% average from 2010 to 2020 is the calculator I used is correct). How much more - no idea. That's what makes what the Fed is doing so important. Both high inflation and stagflation are not out of the realms of possibilities. For planning I would use an educated guess - yes, guess - it will average at least 3% over the next 5 years.
Reduced projected returns going forward are based on historically low interest rates, expected lukewarm gdp growth, and elevated evaluations. Maybe gdp will continue to excel and we will be like China was?
Going back to indexes - what growth/expected real returns are folks depending on for the next 5 and 10 years?
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Post by jongaltiii on Jan 19, 2022 23:01:38 GMT
I've got some SC funds. They have been miserable to hold. YTD the returns are miserable. MW Story today: "Death cross for the smalls The small-capitalization focused Russell 2000 index’s 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day moving average. A “death cross” appears when the 50-day moving average crosses (DMA) below the 200-DMA, which many chart watchers say marks the spot a short-term pullback graduates to a longer-term downtrend. Small-caps, as measured by the Russell 2000 index RUT, -1.60%, have fared almost as badly as technology shares, down 8.1% in the year to date." According to the folks at Dow Jones Market Data: Since inception, the Russell 2000 has entered into a death cross twenty-six times, including Wednesday’s entrance The average amount of trading days the 50-day moving average stays under the 200-day moving average is 104 trading days In 2020, the index spent 103 trading days with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average So according to this data... looks like the inference is that it will trade under the 200 for the next 104 trading days. www.marketwatch.com/story/at-least-6-signs-show-the-stock-market-is-starting-to-break-down-11642632041I'm having a hard time justifying a complete move out of small percentage of SC and thereby "realizing the loss". On the other hand, the alternative is to just hold and add some more as we progress through the year. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2022 23:12:24 GMT
I've held VBR for exactly a year today. Its return is 15%. I guess the growthier small caps are the issue indeed.
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Post by jongaltiii on Jan 19, 2022 23:19:45 GMT
True @slooow, RWJ is only down 1.06% YTD. Small growth is the current prob. Russell 2000? Where does SC (growth/value/blend) go in 2022?
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 20, 2022 0:18:20 GMT
2022 I think will be a recalibration year for equities... exuberance will be tamped down... and realism will set in. Ponzi sectors will take a huge hit [read crypto, meme, story stocks]. Gold and PM will find new luster. People sitting at home (after quitting low-pay jobs) gambling with government money will also stop - more labor participation.
Which is a great thing in my opinion.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 20, 2022 4:00:32 GMT
jongaltiii...thanks for the small cap death cross observation.
Yes, maybe one need not sell...but surely do not buy!...patience.
R48
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 20, 2022 4:29:29 GMT
2022 I think will be a recalibration year for equities... exuberance will be tamped down... and realism will set in. Ponzi sectors will take a huge hit [read crypto, meme, story stocks]. Gold and PM will find new luster. People sitting at home (after quitting low-pay jobs) gambling with government money will also stop - more labor participation. Which is a great thing in my opinion. That sounds good because 1) The SP500 made about 100% in 3 years. Good chance it's not going to have another 20+% 2) Markets are down several weeks, Nasdaq is in correction 3) The Fed told us they will raise rates, 3 or 4 times. 4) After 2 bad years of covid, more labor participation is a given. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 20, 2022 5:10:58 GMT
If you "listen" to what the market tells you, yes you hear inflation will be higher over the next 5 years than what is has been for the last 10 (1.73% average from 2010 to 2020 is the calculator I used is correct). How much more - no idea. That's what makes what the Fed is doing so important. Both high inflation and stagflation are not out of the realms of possibilities. For planning I would use an educated guess - yes, guess - it will average at least 3% over the next 5 years. Reduced projected returns going forward are based on historically low interest rates, expected lukewarm gdp growth, and elevated evaluations. Maybe gdp will continue to excel and we will be like China was? Going back to indexes - what growth/expected real returns are folks depending on for the next 5 and 10 years? This is so obvious. The SP500 made 100% in the last 3 years (2019-20-21). 15+% average annually in the last 10 years, and 16% in the last 13 years. I can say with pretty confidence, there is a very good chance it will do much less, regardless of anything else. What will be real returns? just wait and see. The only thing that keeps at night, not really, is how to make money. I only pay attention to categories/funds with good uptrend, while disregarding EVERYTHING that doesn't tell me how to make money at any moment. Examples: inflation have been going up 2-3-4-5-6-7%. I didn't spend a second on inflation. When inflation hit 4% did anybody ring the bell and stock sold? No. Did it happen in 5% No. All I do is think how to invest. If I had stocks, I would do exactly what I posted in my 2021 thread market observation. In the same thread and others, I posted that HY Munis have been doing great, I started and finished 2021 with Munis, I sold for a couple of months when Munis were down. The other portion was in Multi. 2020 started, munis were down, they were gone so quick... So, did inflation has a high correlation to what stocks have done at any moment in time? Of course not.
Over 21 years, the SP500 lost money in 2000-10, it was at the top since 2021. Two distinguish periods. In 21 years we had plenty of different markets. I only paid attention how to make money by....finding top risk-adjusted performance categories/funds. I never owned any fund that didn't meet this requirement too long, never too diversified, and never waited for an imaginary category to do well. Several years prior to retirement, I add several easy sell rules. Examples: my generic system for retirees say, any bond fund that loses 3% from any last top will be sold, and any stock fund will be sold at 6%. No questions, no hesitation, you sell to protect your portfolio and you wait for the next decent safer uptrend to buy. Why 3% and 6%? Because it was the right numbers for me. Not too fast or slow. You start losing 8-10% and now it's too late. If I have 50/50 bonds/stock, it means my portfolio is down 4.5%. Since I have enough, I don't care to wait several weeks out. It's far more important to miss the worse days than the good ones( link). What's working? from memory, VCMDX. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2022 13:13:44 GMT
Saying there is a very good chance "it" will do much less is progress! Yes! Real returns - personally, I would not wait in projecting my portfolio allocations. I am figuring 5% to 7% this year. I haven't looked at inflation rates as a part of an allocation plan until 18 months ago. Now I am and will until we get through the rate rise cycle. Do I have an adequate cushion for my circumstances - yes.
Broad indexes vs small cap - My VBR fund has done nicely - have held it a year - 15% - so for those who want small cap exposure, it's a thought.
Broad indexes - I think you just have to expect the market return over the long run. Does anyone know if the BH are making any changes - increasing equity over bond funds, holding pat?
FD - I think your trading skills are admirable. Not sure if the generic retiree wants to be a trader. Capital gains can be a real issue among other things. I don't agree that there is less risk in putting so much on the line at one time. It would be great to post consistently in real time to make your point. Backward looking is just that.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 20, 2022 13:24:57 GMT
Saying there is a very good chance "it" will do much less is progress! Yes! Real returns - personally, I would not wait in projecting my portfolio allocations. I am figuring 5% to 7% this year. I haven't looked at inflation rates as a part of an allocation plan until 18 months ago. Now I am and will until we get through the rate rise cycle. Do I have an adequate cushion for my circumstances - yes. Broad indexes vs small cap - My VBR fund has done nicely - have held it a year - 15% - so for those who want small cap exposure, it's a thought. Broad indexes - I think you just have to expect the market return over the long run. Does anyone know if the BH are making any changes - increasing equity over bond funds, holding pat? FD - I think your trading skills are admirable. Not sure if the generic retiree wants to be a trader. Capital gains can be a real issue among other things. I don't agree that there is less risk in putting so much on the line at one time. It would be great to post consistently in real time to make your point. Backward looking is just that. No need to be a trader, I have a solution for that too. 2-3 times annually(mechanically) run your screener and change part of your portfolio. You can decide on 20% or 50% or another number. My main point is to show that if you are an average Joe, hardly do nothing. If you like to tweak, concentrate on categories/funds that do better than others without making decisions/predictions based on inflation, overvaluation, PE and other indicators. It's easier and it works, after all, what markets do is the only thing that matters. Do you know what makes me happy? When someone sends me a message telling me, I start watching the trend and I sold, bought this fund/category, and sometimes it's before I did it...it's not that difficult. |
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