|
Post by sheryldell on Jan 7, 2022 6:05:19 GMT
What about using PGX preferred stock etf for income now? Is it subject to price reduction when interest rates rise and therefore not a prudent choice at this time? I just sold my position from early 2020 due to recent price slipping. yogibearbull said BL/FR are subject to volatility of the overall market. Is this due to the credit worthiness of the borrowers of these loans? Does this apply to preferred stock as well? What percentage would be a good stop, 2% or ? FD1000
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jan 7, 2022 13:19:06 GMT
I talked to River Canyon a while back. I was told they set RCTIX up to do well in rising rates. I bought $200,000 RCTIX on 7/6/21. Current value is $202,335, which works out to around 2.3% yield. Hence, I am somewhat underwhelmed. Maybe it’s a good time to add? Underwhelmed? RPHIX has done less. Good time to add I think. If you sold 3 months later (10/6/21) value would have been $20 3,335. Just a little volatility.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jan 7, 2022 13:51:00 GMT
I consider RPHIX to be “cash like” (I hate to use the dreaded S-word), so I compare it to VUSFX, JPST, MINT, etc.
I don’t follow you on the dates and amounts, but note that I did not sell RCTIX. Actually, I added to both RPHIX and RCTIX yesterday.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jan 7, 2022 14:51:02 GMT
I wasn't clear. Your annualized profit for RCTIX would have been twice as much quoted at 3 months instead of 6 months.
To me any bond OEF that makes their yield with no loss of NAV is a winner these days.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Jan 7, 2022 17:00:02 GMT
I consider RPHIX to be “cash like” (I hate to use the dreaded S-word), so I compare it to VUSFX, JPST, MINT, etc. I don’t follow you on the dates and amounts, but note that I did not sell RCTIX. Actually, I added to both RPHIX and RCTIX yesterday. S=Safe?
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 7, 2022 17:20:25 GMT
I don't comment on most bond posts anymore since nobody pay attention anyway No, No FD, you are mistaken to say "nobody", because I highly value your current bond fund selections for the current time periods. Have for years. I trust your selections more-so than any analyst!! Good day... R48
|
|
|
Post by ignatz on Jan 7, 2022 17:28:26 GMT
I consider RPHIX to be “cash like” (I hate to use the dreaded S-word), so I compare it to VUSFX, JPST, MINT, etc. I don’t follow you on the dates and amounts, but note that I did not sell RCTIX. Actually, I added to both RPHIX and RCTIX yesterday. S=Safe? "same"?
|
|
|
Post by Capital on Jan 7, 2022 18:39:32 GMT
I don't comment on most bond posts anymore since nobody pay attention anyway But, why would you hold a fund like DODIX when rates are clearly going up. What do you usually hold when rate rise? BL, FFRHX. Disclaimer: I'm not going to tell you when to sell. FD I have come to realize that although others do not always agree with what I say they do seem to be listening. Keep posting.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jan 7, 2022 23:24:06 GMT
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jan 7, 2022 23:42:37 GMT
I consider RPHIX to be “cash like” (I hate to use the dreaded S-word), so I compare it to VUSFX, JPST, MINT, etc. I don’t follow you on the dates and amounts, but note that I did not sell RCTIX. Actually, I added to both RPHIX and RCTIX yesterday. S=Safe? S = "sub"
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 8, 2022 14:55:33 GMT
I don't comment on most bond posts anymore since nobody pay attention anyway No, No FD, you are mistaken to say "nobody", because I highly value your current bond fund selections for the current time periods. Have for years. I trust your selections more-so than any analyst!! Good day... R48 Thanks, but as the years passed by, I came to realizations it's not worth my time and effort to explain my system and too much aggravation to defend it. It's now discussed offline with like-minded investors. The beauty of the system( link) is the simplicity of the implementation.
|
|
|
Post by fred495 on Jan 8, 2022 16:10:02 GMT
No, No FD, you are mistaken to say "nobody", because I highly value your current bond fund selections for the current time periods. Have for years. I trust your selections more-so than any analyst!! Good day... R48 Thanks, but as the years passed by, I came to realizations it's not worth my time and effort to explain my system and too much aggravation to defend it. It's now discussed offline with like-minded investors. The beauty of the system( link) is the simplicity of the implementation. FD, you may have misunderstood R48's post. I think he is talking about how highly he values your bond fund selections, not necessarily, from what I can gather, your system. As he says, in his ultimate compliment to you: "I trust your selections more-so than any analyst!!" You may have explained your system too many times to your own and to other's aggravation. Most of us here have developed our own sytem over the years. Discussing it off-line with like minded investors is an excellent solution. Bottom line, I agree with R48, and wish you would once again share with us your in-depth bond fund analysis, your selections and your highly informative monthly charts. I am sure, your valuable contributions in this area will be greatly appreciated. Fred
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 8, 2022 20:13:10 GMT
Thanks, but as the years passed by, I came to realizations it's not worth my time and effort to explain my system and too much aggravation to defend it. It's now discussed offline with like-minded investors. The beauty of the system( link) is the simplicity of the implementation. FD, you may have misunderstood R48's post. I think he is talking about how highly he values your bond fund selections, not necessarily, from what I can gather, your system. As he says, in his ultimate compliment to you: "I trust your selections more-so than any analyst!!" You may have explained your system too many times to your own and to other's aggravation. Most of us here have developed our own sytem over the years. Discussing it off-line with like minded investors is an excellent solution. Bottom line, I agree with R48, and wish you would once again share with us your in-depth bond fund analysis, your selections and your highly informative monthly charts. I am sure, your valuable contributions in this area will be greatly appreciated. Fred I think I got it. As I posted months ago, I'm usually not going to post my selections, deep analysis and most importantly when to switch, the trolls "won", they start the personal insults first and when I answer, the moderators blame me and/or lock MY threads. The posters who were interested lost, most don't care. Life goes on.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 10, 2022 17:25:57 GMT
Bottom line, I agree with R48, and wish you would once again share with us your in-depth bond fund analysis, your selections and your highly informative monthly charts. I am sure, your valuable contributions in this area will be greatly appreciated. Fred Yes... OTOH if no, FD1000 can have my e-mail address and he can include me in off-forum info sharing! TIA R48
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jan 11, 2022 4:09:30 GMT
DODIX continues its spiral down the gurgler. My mistake last week was selling only half of it. The rest of it goes today, leaving a token amount just to monitor whether it ever goes up again, although I rank the chance of that happening just below the probability of detecting a magnetic monopole.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jan 11, 2022 13:23:12 GMT
DODIX continues its spiral down the gurgler. My mistake last week was selling only half of it. The rest of it goes today, leaving a token amount just to monitor whether it ever goes up again, although I rank the chance of that happening just below the probability of detecting a magnetic monopole. Core/core plus will have their day again once rates stabilize and the yield is higher.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 11, 2022 18:34:09 GMT
DODIX continues its spiral down the gurgler. My mistake last week was selling only half of it. The rest of it goes today, leaving a token amount just to monitor whether it ever goes up again, although I rank the chance of that happening just below the probability of detecting a magnetic monopole. The new Web" telescope just put in space has increased the odds of detecting a magnetic monopole...no? R48
|
|
|
Post by racqueteer on Jan 11, 2022 19:33:25 GMT
DODIX continues its spiral down the gurgler. My mistake last week was selling only half of it. The rest of it goes today, leaving a token amount just to monitor whether it ever goes up again, although I rank the chance of that happening just below the probability of detecting a magnetic monopole. The new Web" telescope just put in space has increased the odds of detecting a magnetic monopole...no? R48 Well, um, no; not that I can imagine. In fairness, though, I think the odds of that are already as close to zero as you can get! As for DODIX, I certainly agree that their approach is unlikely to produce much. Since I'm hearing that DODBX is changing its approach; especially to its 'bonds'; I expect DODIX will announce a new approach as well.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jan 12, 2022 4:32:17 GMT
DODIX continues its spiral down the gurgler. My mistake last week was selling only half of it. The rest of it goes today, leaving a token amount just to monitor whether it ever goes up again, although I rank the chance of that happening just below the probability of detecting a magnetic monopole. The new Web" telescope just put in space has increased the odds of detecting a magnetic monopole...no? R48 A telescope won't see a magnetic monopole (or evidence of one). Our best chance is to create one in a particle accelerator, since if they exist, they are probably quite massive and therefore require a lot of energy to produce. There are good reasons to believe that magnetic monopoles should exist. First, they would make Maxwell's equations symmetric with respect to electric and magnetic charges and currents. Second, Dirac showed that the existence of a magnetic monopole would prove that electric charge must be quantized (i.e., there must exist a smallest unit of electric charge), which, as we know, is the case. Third, many theories about the Big Bang imply that magnetic monopoles should have been created in the earliest fractions of a second after the Big Bang. Nevertheless, we have never detected one.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 12, 2022 17:11:52 GMT
The new Web" telescope just put in space has increased the odds of detecting a magnetic monopole...no? R48 A telescope won't see a magnetic monopole (or evidence of one). Our best chance is to create one in a particle accelerator, since if they exist, they are probably quite massive and therefore require a lot of energy to produce. There are good reasons to believe that magnetic monopoles should exist. First, they would make Maxwell's equations symmetric with respect to electric and magnetic charges and currents. Second, Dirac showed that the existence of a magnetic monopole would prove that electric charge must be quantized (i.e., there must exist a smallest unit of electric charge), which, as we know, is the case. Third, many theories about the Big Bang imply that magnetic monopoles should have been created in the earliest fractions of a second after the Big Bang. Nevertheless, we have never detected one. Well, I detected two poles. While playing Football, we had the longest pass in the world: starbinski to maciejewski…”pole to pole.”!! R48
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 0:03:12 GMT
What about using PGX preferred stock etf for income now? Is it subject to price reduction when interest rates rise and therefore not a prudent choice at this time? I just sold my position from early 2020 due to recent price slipping. yogibearbull said BL/FR are subject to volatility of the overall market. Is this due to the credit worthiness of the borrowers of these loans? Does this apply to preferred stock as well? What percentage would be a good stop, 2% or ? FD1000 The issue with preferreds can be both duration and credit quality. I hold PFFD in taxable and my performance has been better than most bond funds and part of the distribution is Qualified, so some tax savings over bonds. I also just noticed PFFV, a newish ETF of floating rate preferreds, which have been performing a bit better recently without sacrificing much yield.
|
|
|
Post by javajoe on Jan 13, 2022 18:03:45 GMT
Good thread thank you for starting Chang. I have decent positions in both DODLX and DODIX, but continue to hold as the fundamental reasons I selected them haven't really changed (firm approach, active mgmt, reasonable ER's, multi-cycle orientation etc). Obviously you could do better with more active fund research and regular trading, but I'm not smart enough to optimize that and don't enjoy tinkering on the bond side like I used to. If something serious is going on that would suggest permanent sub-optimal performance over multiple cycles, let me know. I'm far less in-touch than I used to be.
-JavaJoe
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jan 13, 2022 21:17:36 GMT
Good thread thank you for starting Chang. I have decent positions in both DODLX and DODIX, but continue to hold as the fundamental reasons I selected them haven't really changed (firm approach, active mgmt, reasonable ER's, multi-cycle orientation etc). Obviously you could do better with more active fund research and regular trading, but I'm not smart enough to optimize that and don't enjoy tinkering on the bond side like I used to. If something serious is going on that would suggest permanent sub-optimal performance over multiple cycles, let me know. I'm far less in-touch than I used to be. -JavaJoe It’s nothing to do with DODIX per se, it’s just IT IG bonds yielding bupkis, and interest rates rising. When Wellesley starts dropping more than Windsor, there’s a problem. I got out of IT IG bonds last year but decided, for no particularly good reason, to keep DODIX. Now I’ve fixed that. (Well, mostly; I am still keeping a chunk of DODIX.) Good to see you JJ and hope all is well. Been a long time since the old M* days.
|
|
|
Post by javajoe on Jan 14, 2022 13:38:46 GMT
Good thread thank you for starting Chang. I have decent positions in both DODLX and DODIX, but continue to hold as the fundamental reasons I selected them haven't really changed (firm approach, active mgmt, reasonable ER's, multi-cycle orientation etc). Obviously you could do better with more active fund research and regular trading, but I'm not smart enough to optimize that and don't enjoy tinkering on the bond side like I used to. If something serious is going on that would suggest permanent sub-optimal performance over multiple cycles, let me know. I'm far less in-touch than I used to be. -JavaJoe It’s nothing to do with DODIX per se, it’s just IT IG bonds yielding bupkis, and interest rates rising. When Wellesley starts dropping more than Windsor, there’s a problem. I got out of IT IG bonds last year but decided, for no particularly good reason, to keep DODIX. Now I’ve fixed that. (Well, mostly; I am still keeping a chunk of DODIX.) Good to see you JJ and hope all is well. Been a long time since the old M* days. That's helpful thanks for the commentary chang. From an AA perspective, where did you deploy that $$ instead? I think cash and LT bonds are bad places to be, but most equity valuations seem really stretched to me.
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 14, 2022 14:31:56 GMT
Good thread thank you for starting Chang. I have decent positions in both DODLX and DODIX, but continue to hold as the fundamental reasons I selected them haven't really changed (firm approach, active mgmt, reasonable ER's, multi-cycle orientation etc). Obviously you could do better with more active fund research and regular trading, but I'm not smart enough to optimize that and don't enjoy tinkering on the bond side like I used to. If something serious is going on that would suggest permanent sub-optimal performance over multiple cycles, let me know. I'm far less in-touch than I used to be. -JavaJoe You got to read markets. The Fed told you they will raise rates in 2022, the question: is it 2-3-4 times? What is typically have done better in rising rates? bank loans. What has done poorly? higher-rates bonds. "Don't fight the Fed" But, if you own lots of risk(AKA stocks) and want a ballast, then higher-rated bonds makes more sense. I still would not want to own a losing category.
|
|
|
Post by roi2020 on Jan 15, 2022 2:32:03 GMT
Good thread thank you for starting Chang. I have decent positions in both DODLX and DODIX, but continue to hold as the fundamental reasons I selected them haven't really changed (firm approach, active mgmt, reasonable ER's, multi-cycle orientation etc). Obviously you could do better with more active fund research and regular trading, but I'm not smart enough to optimize that and don't enjoy tinkering on the bond side like I used to. If something serious is going on that would suggest permanent sub-optimal performance over multiple cycles, let me know. I'm far less in-touch than I used to be. -JavaJoe You got to read markets. The Fed told you they will raise rates in 2022, the question: is it 2-3-4 times? What is typically have done better in rising rates? bank loans. What has done poorly? higher-rates bonds. "Don't fight the Fed" But, if you own lots of risk(AKA stocks) and want a ballast, then higher-rated bonds makes more sense. I still would not want to own a losing category.I don't like investment-grade bonds or "cash" right now. You're guaranteed a negative real return in the short to medium term. But where does an investor with a high equity allocation go for ballast? There are no good solutions that I'm aware of...
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jan 15, 2022 2:35:59 GMT
It’s nothing to do with DODIX per se, it’s just IT IG bonds yielding bupkis, and interest rates rising. When Wellesley starts dropping more than Windsor, there’s a problem. I got out of IT IG bonds last year but decided, for no particularly good reason, to keep DODIX. Now I’ve fixed that. (Well, mostly; I am still keeping a chunk of DODIX.) Good to see you JJ and hope all is well. Been a long time since the old M* days. That's helpful thanks for the commentary chang . From an AA perspective, where did you deploy that $$ instead? I think cash and LT bonds are bad places to be, but most equity valuations seem really stretched to me. The DODIX sale went into FFRHX. Although, more generally, I have spread FI purchases recently (fromother sales) among RPHIX ("UST/HY"), RCTIX ("MS") and FFRHX ("FR/BL").
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 15, 2022 3:41:20 GMT
You got to read markets. The Fed told you they will raise rates in 2022, the question: is it 2-3-4 times? What is typically have done better in rising rates? bank loans. What has done poorly? higher-rates bonds. "Don't fight the Fed" But, if you own lots of risk(AKA stocks) and want a ballast, then higher-rated bonds makes more sense. I still would not want to own a losing category.I don't like investment-grade bonds or "cash" right now. You're guaranteed a negative real return in the short to medium term. But where does an investor with a high equity allocation go for ballast? There are no good solutions that I'm aware of... You asked: There are no good solutions that I'm aware of: How about single family residential RENTAL PROPERTIES. They still work like old-fashioned investments...starting rents at 8-10% of value; pay taxes/insurance etc and left with about 6-7% return. Raise rents annually. Home prices appreciate in most time periods. If you don't want headaches of managing, hiore a property manager at 10% of rental income...worth it. Beats bonds by a mile. Disclosure: I own same in south Florida. Unbelievable price increase in last two years. Rent up 1 Jan. Cap gains have locked me in for life. R48
|
|
|
Post by racqueteer on Jan 15, 2022 14:03:52 GMT
I don't like investment-grade bonds or "cash" right now. You're guaranteed a negative real return in the short to medium term. But where does an investor with a high equity allocation go for ballast? There are no good solutions that I'm aware of... You asked: There are no good solutions that I'm aware of: How about single family residential RENTAL PROPERTIES. They still work like old-fashioned investments...starting rents at 8-10% of value; pay taxes/insurance etc and left with about 6-7% return. Raise rents annually. Home prices appreciate in most time periods. If you don't want headaches of managing, hiore a property manager at 10% of rental income...worth it. Beats bonds by a mile. Disclosure: I own same in south Florida. Unbelievable price increase in last two years. Rent up 1 Jan. Cap gains have locked me in for life. R48 Picking up on my post in a separate thread, this has the virtues of a good CEF: There are only so many houses and so much land at any given time (fixed supply). You can get mispricing. Many (most in this case?) assets are going to retain their value; while rent generates additional income. Asset is retained after death. Almost certainly an intrinsically longer duration if this is a TRADE, though; so these tend to be investments rather than trades. If you're trading, then you're counting on volatility; which is a double-edged sword - As many discovered not too many years ago! Everything progresses more slowly with housing, however, so the INCOME tends to become the focus. Otoh, you have to interact with the asset; something you don't HAVE to do with a CEF. Same, but different... 8^b
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 15, 2022 15:05:43 GMT
You got to read markets. The Fed told you they will raise rates in 2022, the question: is it 2-3-4 times? What is typically have done better in rising rates? bank loans. What has done poorly? higher-rates bonds. "Don't fight the Fed" But, if you own lots of risk(AKA stocks) and want a ballast, then higher-rated bonds makes more sense. I still would not want to own a losing category.I don't like investment-grade bonds or "cash" right now. You're guaranteed a negative real return in the short to medium term. But where does an investor with a high equity allocation go for ballast? There are no good solutions that I'm aware of... If you are talking about inflation of 7% or even 4%, there are no guarantees. If you are a retiree or someone who want to own bonds, are you going to invest in cash? no, there are bond funds that will make money, you just need to know where to be. We had similar situation in 2021 and there were options I mention last year. I also mentioned options for 2022(do a search in link). None is high quality. Actually, I never used high quality bond funds. And no, stocks and CEFs are not an option for these investors.
|
|