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Post by yogibearbull on May 4, 2024 12:47:51 GMT
Investing, ideology & politics don't mix. So, once China, HK & EMs start to move from low points, it would be interesting to see if fencesitters & "those-uninvestible-areas" crowd will jump in late.
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Post by anitya on May 5, 2024 23:06:54 GMT
uncleharley , QQQ did not fill on Friday the gap from Thursday high of 427.81. Friday low was 432.74, and so that is a good 1.25% gap. How often do cap weighted indices gap and run such that we do not need to worry about this gap not filling? I am not worried today but can how quickly the gap fills and what QQQ does after the fill be instructive of the trend? If you are feeling generous, may be also share your read on the 10 yr yield? It (so did 2 yr yield) moved pretty quickly the last couple of days.
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Post by archer on May 6, 2024 5:37:00 GMT
I too wonder about the 10 yr I see it bounced off its trend line Fri.
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Post by uncleharley on May 6, 2024 12:19:23 GMT
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Post by anitya on May 6, 2024 20:25:11 GMT
uncleharley , Any reason you do not currently own Utilities, say XLU or or spicy NLR? I think someone here owns NLR. I was too timid with NLR (and did not add after the initial buy) and should have checked with you when I was initially interested in it.
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Post by uncleharley on May 6, 2024 21:14:19 GMT
uncleharley , Any reason you do not currently own Utilities, say XLU or or spicy NLR? I think someone here owns NLR. I was too timid with NLR (and did not add after the initial buy) and should have checked with you when I was initially interested in it. I see more potential elsewhere, such as the gold miners.
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Post by yogibearbull on May 9, 2024 10:58:11 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +17.0% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 56.09% (positive)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 51.20% (positive)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Major indexes rose above 50-dMA. Poor seasonality May 1 - Oct 30.
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Post by FD1000 on May 10, 2024 12:59:12 GMT
Observations: since 12/2023 I read and heard the following by many in the media. 1) The market expanded to more categories. LC growth still leads. HC is doing well but still behind ( schrts.co/JbbVDEbc) 2) Interest rates will be cut 5-7 times and LT rates will follow. No rates cuts yet and the first cut maybe in May 2024 according to CME. The 10 year rate went down to from Nov/2024 to the end of the 2023, but it is in an uptrend YTD. If Rates would go down = buy treasuries. Reality: treasuries lost YTD. This category supposed to protect you, not to lose money. 3) The mag 5-6-7 or LC growth are too expensive, and overvalue = switch to other categories + equal weighted index. Reality: LC growth made 7+% YTD. 4) The market, AKA the SP500, is overvalued, sell to cash. How many times I heard this in the last several years? imagine if you disregarded it and just invested your stocks in the SP500 since 2010. That's already 14 years. The above is from 2/8/2024, about 3 months ago, and still makes sense to me. The SP500 is less than 1% from its all-time high.
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Post by mnfish on May 10, 2024 13:19:04 GMT
"If Rates would go down = buy treasuries. Reality: treasuries lost YTD. This category supposed to protect you, not to lose money."
You're obviously referring to a bond fund that holds treasuries. Some diversified investors actually buy 10yr bonds at a discount that pay a 4+% coupon.
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Post by yogibearbull on May 10, 2024 13:26:13 GMT
mnfish , how would people without experience with individual T-Bills/Notes know that?
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Post by fred495 on May 10, 2024 13:48:36 GMT
"If Rates would go down = buy treasuries. Reality: treasuries lost YTD. This category supposed to protect you, not to lose money." However, I see that iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (TFLO), for example, has a YTD total return of 2.07%.
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Post by Chahta on May 10, 2024 14:19:33 GMT
"If Rates would go down = buy treasuries. Reality: treasuries lost YTD. This category supposed to protect you, not to lose money." You're obviously referring to a bond fund that holds treasuries. Some diversified investors actually buy 10yr bonds at a discount that pay a 4+% coupon. Yes you are protected. Hold Treasuries (not funds) until maturity and you get all your principal back. Sell before and get market return.
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Post by FD1000 on May 10, 2024 21:14:55 GMT
When I mentioned treasuries, of course, I meant a simple fund/ETF such as VGIT. No floating, not a direct bond, not holding to maturity.
You all knew it. RSIIX made so much more YTD.
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Post by oldskeet on May 11, 2024 8:49:25 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending May 10th the S&P500 Index closed up 95 points, 1.85% and is now off it's 52 week closing high by less than 1%. The US10YrT closed the week a yield of 4.5%. The same as last week. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 53, fair value with a bullish tilt.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy CEF regained the lead with a track score of 24.48, with IEV took second with a score of 16.19 with MDY taking third with a score of 10.82. For the sectors XLU leads with a score of 33.35 followed by XLP with a score of 13.69 and placing third is XLB with a score of 13.69. XLP was declared the second place winner because of it's better year to date performance.
Observation. The rally has broadened out as it is just not large cap tech as sectors like utilities, materials, consumer staples, and industrials have gained traction over the past couple of weeks. So, perhaps the rally will develop some legs as we move into and through summer. For me I currently favor domestic value, foreign, the smids and the metals along with their miners.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing! Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on May 11, 2024 12:16:46 GMT
I have been wandering around in left field, wondering why the CRB is not exploding to the top. Lo & behold the prices of energy have been sedate when compared to nearly any metal or Ag commodities. N G has begun a move off the bottom that will probably be sustained and the Saudi's want the price of oil to go up. Since gas & oil prices are the largest component in the CRB index, we should see some hotter than expected inflation numbers when the oil prices begin to trend up. JMHO
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Post by yogibearbull on May 11, 2024 12:22:57 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on May 11, 2024 12:31:33 GMT
Thanks, I just updated my weekly chart for WTIC to better reflect the current cycle. It does indicate a support level at the 72.5 range should be reached in mid-June.
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Post by anitya on May 14, 2024 6:15:06 GMT
In terms of VIX's predictive value, it jumped 8.2% today - for what? I have become disinterested in VIX below 16-17, may be to my own peril. I used to watch it every day. These days I see it if my eye catches it when looking at my very long watch list but I have not looked for it in a while.
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Post by oldskeet on May 15, 2024 12:42:41 GMT
An update and terms change in the Barometer's scale. As of market close Tuesday May 14th the Barometer scored the S&P500 Index as bullish with a reading of 60. The scale ranges remain the same as before but the terms changed. Moving from left to right what was oversold is now extremely bearish, what was overvalued is now bearish, and what was fair value up to a reading of 49 is referred to as a bearish tilt. Moving further right in what was the fair value area a reading of 51 to 58 becomes a bullish tilt, overvalued becomes bullish, and overbought becomes extremely bullish.
The reason for the change was because some readers had trouble relating to the intended meaning of the old terms.
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Post by anitya on May 16, 2024 3:13:32 GMT
An update and terms change in the Barometer's scale. As of market close Tuesday May 14th the Barometer scored the S&P500 Index as bullish with a reading of 60. The scale ranges remain the same as before but the terms changed. Moving from left to right what was oversold is now extremely bearish, what was overvalued is now bearish, and what was fair value up to a reading of 49 is referred to as a bearish tilt. Moving further right in what was the fair value area a reading of 51 to 58 becomes a bullish tilt, overvalued becomes bullish, and overbought becomes extremely bullish. The reason for the change was because some readers had trouble relating to the intended meaning of the old terms. OS, My small brain could not tell if that is a sarcastic message or a real message. Is this guy any good - twitter.com/JamieSaettele. beginning of day, he posted about potential trend change for TNX. What do you guys think of his charting and conclusions? Another gap and go for SPY?
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Post by yogibearbull on May 16, 2024 10:57:29 GMT
Sentiments improving since mid-April.
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +17.6% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 65.48% (positive)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 64.40% (positive)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
CPI +3.4%, PPI +2.2% (wholesale). PPI < CPI means that the CPI is coming down. DJIA futures 40,000+.
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Post by oldskeet on May 18, 2024 0:23:39 GMT
Hi guys. The S&P500 Index reached a new all time closing high on Wednesday of 5308 and closed the week at 5303 for an 80 point, 1.5%, gain for the week. Year to date the Index has gained 533 points, 11.17%. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.42% down 8 basis points. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of a reading of 65, bullish.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy CEF continued to lead with a track score of 34.55, in second place with a score of 22.57 was EEM and in third was EPP with a score of 21.12. For the sectors XLU maintained it's lead with a track score of 33.51, XLF now holds second with a score of 16.25 and in third is XLP with a score of 14.85.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 18, 2024 15:22:56 GMT
Investing, ideology & politics don't mix. So, once China, HK & EMs start to move from low points, it would be interesting to see if fencesitters & "those-uninvestible-areas" crowd will jump in late. OK, I'll reply, as I am one of the Don't Invest in China camp, and sold out my holdings about two years go (at much higher prices than today), and have encouraged same for others: I have added a new test to my investing...Called: "A voice from my adult children asking: What were you thinking, Dad?"Goes like this. If I had deferred taking Social Security at age 62, and waited to age 70, and died at age 70, I would have left about $200,000 dollars on the table with the fed gvt. My kids could rightfully ask: What were you thinking Dad? If I wake up one day and read: China confiscates all US investor holdings/assets, my kids could rightfully ask: What were you thinking Dad, when you knew:
--China is a communist country who abhors capitalism, and rich USA investors...so did you not expect they could take your money? --USA gvt has become greatly hostile with Xi/China... --If China invades/takes Taiwan...further bifurcation. --China has a horrible economy now...they need the money...now --Biden/USA is placing tariffs of up to 100% on China products. Economic trade war. Do we expect China to do nothing? --China has an almost insolvable negative birthrate...declining population issue. They need to take money now. --China is withdrawing their huge holding of US Treasury bonds...repatriating. They do not want to have assets USA could confiscate if/when they take your money. --China has been almost kidnapping CEO/company founders like Jack Ma, as Ze is dissatisfied with all the China billionaires being created, at expense of citizens. "Where is Jack Ma.??" --USA citizens do not own shares outright; they own intermediary right-to-own certificates, that may simply be not honored! --Vanguard is one of a couple firms China AUTHORIZED a few years ago to begin owning China company shares directly, for its USA citizens. Vanguard has now completely halted and pulled out of this arrangement! --If the USA simply returns to the cold war status of the 1960's re Russia/China/Iran, your money will be history. --China once rounded up thousands of their educated citizens (college grads) and sent them for years to work in the rice fields...to learn the value of labor, and reeducate them on communist ways. Do you not think they would hesitate to take your money. ---------------------------------- I hear my kids voices....Dad it is not necessary to invest in China, to have success! R48
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Post by chang on May 19, 2024 8:40:22 GMT
Investing, ideology & politics don't mix. So, once China, HK & EMs start to move from low points, it would be interesting to see if fencesitters & "those-uninvestible-areas" crowd will jump in late. OK, I'll reply, as I am one of the Don't Invest in China camp, and sold out my holdings about two years go (at much higher prices than today), and have encouraged same for others: I have added a new test to my investing...Called: "A voice from my adult children asking: What were you thinking, Dad?"Goes like this. If I had deferred taking Social Security at age 62, and waited to age 70, and died at age 70, I would have left about $200,000 dollars on the table with the fed gvt. My kids could rightfully ask: What were you thinking Dad? If I wake up one day and read: China confiscates all US investor holdings/assets, my kids could rightfully ask: What were you thinking Dad, when you knew:
--China is a communist country who abhors capitalism, and rich USA investors...so did you not expect they could take your money? --USA gvt has become greatly hostile with Xi/China... --If China invades/takes Taiwan...further bifurcation. --China has a horrible economy now...they need the money...now --Biden/USA is placing tariffs of up to 100% on China products. Economic trade war. Do we expect China to do nothing? --China has an almost insolvable negative birthrate...declining population issue. They need to take money now. --China is withdrawing their huge holding of US Treasury bonds...repatriating. They do not want to have assets USA could confiscate if/when they take your money. --China has been almost kidnapping CEO/company founders like Jack Ma, as Ze is dissatisfied with all the China billionaires being created, at expense of citizens. "Where is Jack Ma.??" --USA citizens do not own shares outright; they own intermediary right-to-own certificates, that may simply be not honored! --Vanguard is one of a couple firms China AUTHORIZED a few years ago to begin owning China company shares directly, for its USA citizens. Vanguard has now completely halted and pulled out of this arrangement! --If the USA simply returns to the cold war status of the 1960's re Russia/China/Iran, your money will be history. --China once rounded up thousands of their educated citizens (college grads) and sent them for years to work in the rice fields...to learn the value of labor, and reeducate them on communist ways. Do you not think they would hesitate to take your money. ---------------------------------- I hear my kids voices....Dad it is not necessary to invest in China, to have success! R48 There is another side to the China coin. They are showing real innovation: built the first 4th Generation gas cooled nuclear reactor plant, developed radar eyeglasses for the blind that allows them to navigate their way walking around, a nuclear powered battery that fits in a cellphone and runs it for 50 years… And: not encumbered by woke DEI mentality infiltrating their corporate culture, not encumbered by ESG and decarbonization mentality infiltrating their corporate culture, not encumbered by regulatory bureaucracy that causes years of delay before anything can be done, and not encumbered by many other things … (I’m not saying that all these things are wrong; simply saying that these barriers to potential progress of new goods and services — and profits — do not exist). I’m up around 15% on my first two buys of FSEAX. The manager is Chinese so I assume he understands the risks. He has shown a willingness to maneuver and position the fund away from benchmarks, so it’s definitely “active”. I’m contemplating another buy soon.
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Post by yogibearbull on May 19, 2024 11:57:00 GMT
So long as there are opportunities and access in China, I will keep a small flyer. It doesn't matter to me how others look at it.
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Post by coptomist on May 19, 2024 12:02:50 GMT
I just initiated a small starter position in FSEAX this past Thursday, May 16th. Hoping Chang is right!
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Post by retiredat48 on May 19, 2024 14:52:13 GMT
yogibearbull , anitya , archer , uncleharley , FD1000 , mnfish , fred495 , Chahta , oldskeet , retiredat48 , chang , coptomist , 1) I find at this stage in my life, or for anyone, one can find suitable investments such that China is not needed. Like India for example. Or international funds w/o any China. Or FSGIX an actively managed fund with decent relative returns that was once heavily China, now a small China percentage. 2) the FD1000 often posted aspect that small positions simply do not add to overall performance, is likely applicable here. Sure...own a small amount...but it doesn't move the portfolio performance needle much unless held for decades. I had a ten-bagger in FSEAX for my daughter's IRA, but held for decades...now not held. 3)Norbert, recall the portfolio challenge contest of ours in yr 2010? FXI China was in my (model)portfolio then...around $52/share. Today $29/share. R48
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Post by chang on May 19, 2024 15:07:47 GMT
I just initiated a small starter position in FSEAX this past Thursday, May 16th. Hoping Chang is right! Good lord, I hope nobody thinks that I know what I’m doing. But I will add to FSEAX on a dip this week, against R48’s advice. My existing position is NOT big; in fact, only 1/4 of my FEDDX position. FOSFX is another fund I will add to. One more thing about China, retiredat48. You know what Buffett says about being greedy when others are fearful…
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Post by retiredat48 on May 19, 2024 15:22:09 GMT
I just initiated a small starter position in FSEAX this past Thursday, May 16th. Hoping Chang is right! Good lord, I hope nobody thinks that I know what I’m doing. But I will add to FSEAX on a dip this week, against R48’s advice. My existing position is NOT big; in fact, only 1/4 of my FEDDX position. FOSFX is another fund I will add to. One more thing about China, retiredat48 . You know what Buffett says about being greedy when others are fearful… Actually Buffett says the opposite here. My memory is he will not be investing in China going forward. He is also not keen on much international investing at all. If I had my entire portfolio in USA last two decades, I would be much better off--int'l has not added much. I suspect investors should make sure they own a slice of USA ,Art. Intel companies, for next decade, and you will get all the share price growth you need, without China risk. And Buffett laments he has to take big positions to move the Berkshire performance needle; a dilemma he also lives with. R48
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Post by chang on May 19, 2024 15:42:28 GMT
Good lord, I hope nobody thinks that I know what I’m doing. But I will add to FSEAX on a dip this week, against R48’s advice. My existing position is NOT big; in fact, only 1/4 of my FEDDX position. FOSFX is another fund I will add to. One more thing about China, retiredat48 . You know what Buffett says about being greedy when others are fearful… Actually Buffett says the opposite here. My memory is he will not be investing in China going forward. He is also not keen on much international investing at all. If I had my entire portfolio in USA last two decades, I would be much better off--int'l has not added much. I suspect investors should make sure they own a slice of USA ,Art. Intel companies, for next decade, and you will get all the share price growth you need, without China risk. And Buffett laments he has to take big positions to move the Berkshire performance needle; a dilemma he also lives with. R48 That’s not entirely true. In fact, Buffett has been — and continues to be — buying more Asian shares. He bought BYD in China a couple of years ago, then a big stake in TSMC in 2022 or 2023? Then last year he got very pro-Japan and bought Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo. I agree the last 20 years everybody would have been better off in SPY or QQQ, but the past is the past, and the question is always Quo Vadis?
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