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Post by judger on Jun 13, 2023 17:08:09 GMT
I am getting on in age and have decided to quit or at least slow the pursuit of performance and reorient the portfolio for stability and so others might have more success in managing. I am looking primarily at S&P 500 variations and low volatility mutual funds and/or ETF's. I have found FDLO in low volatility but it is pretty thin for trades and sometimes performance. I have excluded SPLV and USMV and am eliminating LGLV due to performance. Is anyone interested in this area and have any suggestions for long term commitments?
Thank you.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jun 13, 2023 19:27:06 GMT
judger , I don’t know if you can have low volatility and realistic performance whatever that means to you. Both VOO and VTI can swing down or up 20%+ but few funds can beat their performance long term. Maybe decide on what average performance you might need with some slop. Then match what down drafts you can stomach. Nothing guarantees those numbers will hold in the future though. We use a combination of VTI, a muni fund and cash to control volatility and overall performance in a taxable account.
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Post by nobhead on Jun 13, 2023 19:34:55 GMT
judger, I am interested in this as well. I currently have over 50% in treasuries, cd's, and money markets but that is not a long term solution. Hindsight says I should have been mostly in S&P 500 many years ago. Seems like we may have to give up performance to get stability. I wish I had suggestions.
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Post by anitya on Jun 13, 2023 22:00:39 GMT
Themes / factors work until they get overcrowded and priced away to be effective long term solutions.
I started investing in USMV prior to 2017 and then started selling it in 2020 June to move to higher beta. I still own 1% of PV in USMV (tax handcuffs). I would be interested in low volatility OEFs or active ETFs you may find that are similar or superior in performance to FDLO.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 13, 2023 22:36:05 GMT
judger , I am interested in this as well. I currently have over 50% in treasuries, cd's, and money markets but that is not a long term solution. Hindsight says I should have been mostly in S&P 500 many years ago. Seems like we may have to give up performance to get stability. I wish I had suggestions. nob -- Since you ask, I suggest you might read my book, which delves deeply into trading/investing low volatility. I'm working on a couple of small but important revisions right now. I can message you the revisions, if you are interested in reading. |
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Post by fred495 on Jun 13, 2023 23:09:50 GMT
I am getting on in age and have decided to quit or at least slow the pursuit of performance and reorient the portfolio for stability and so others might have more success in managing. I am looking primarily at S&P 500 variations and low volatility mutual funds and/or ETF's. I have found FDLO in low volatility but it is pretty thin for trades and sometimes performance. I have excluded SPLV and USMV and am eliminating LGLV due to performance. Is anyone interested in this area and have any suggestions for long term commitments?
Thank you.
I am a retired and a conservative investor who is more interested in preserving capital than seeking return on capital in the current market environment. Or, as another poster stated a while ago, " I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution". Hence, besides having a significant amount of my portfolio invested in MM and CDs at this time, I am also invested in these low volatility OEFs: YTD 3 YR 5 YR Std DevFMSDX 5.9% 8.8% 8.7% 11.4 JHQAX* 11.8 8.8 7.8 8.5 BLNDX/REMIX 5.0 14.4 - 9.7 PVCMX 4.7 6.3 - 4.8 * Available at Fidelity "load waived" and NTF. Good luck. Fred |
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Post by nobhead on Jun 14, 2023 0:44:29 GMT
judger , I am interested in this as well. I currently have over 50% in treasuries, cd's, and money markets but that is not a long term solution. Hindsight says I should have been mostly in S&P 500 many years ago. Seems like we may have to give up performance to get stability. I wish I had suggestions. nob -- Since you ask, I suggest you might read my book, which delves deeply into trading/investing low volatility. I'm working on a couple of small but important revisions right now. I can message you the revisions, if you are interested in reading.
I read your book on Kindle and ordered the paperback. I am old school and needed the paperback. Unfortunately, computer problems at our business have kept me from having the time to read and study it.
TIA
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2023 1:20:19 GMT
richardsok what is the name of your book, is it available on Amazon? Thanks
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Post by richardsok on Jun 14, 2023 10:43:44 GMT
richardsok what is the name of your book, is it available on Amazon? Thanks MEMOS From The STOCKTRADER'S NOTEBOOK. Yes, it's on Amazon. If you do get it, let me know so I can message you the updated revision patches I'm working on. |
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Post by richardsok on Jun 14, 2023 10:46:41 GMT
nob -- Since you ask, I suggest you might read my book, which delves deeply into trading/investing low volatility. I'm working on a couple of small but important revisions right now. I can message you the revisions, if you are interested in reading.
I read your book on Kindle and ordered the paperback. I am old school and needed the paperback. Unfortunately, computer problems at our business have kept me from having the time to read and study it.
TIA
Now you've motivated me to stop dawdling and finish the revision patches. (There are two of them.) I'll get them done in a couple of days and message them right out to you. |
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Post by richardsok on Jun 14, 2023 16:59:24 GMT
I read your book on Kindle and ordered the paperback. I am old school and needed the paperback. Unfortunately, computer problems at our business have kept me from having the time to read and study it.
TIA
Now you've motivated me to stop dawdling and finish the revision patches. (There are two of them.) I'll get them done in a couple of days and message them right out to you. nob: Just messaged updated revisions to you. Yahoo! appears to be changing their charting technology on some browsers (taking a perfectly good system and making it inferior!) I have had to change my chart set-up instructions. Since the book came out and I focused strongly on the method, my PV has been averaging 1.3% growth / month. Of course, another real test will come when mkt turns firmly bearish again -- or highly volatile. As you see, I've had a long time to tinker and have greatly revised what DVolT funds & stocks to trade. |
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Post by judger on Jun 14, 2023 20:18:05 GMT
judger , I am interested in this as well. I currently have over 50% in treasuries, cd's, and money markets but that is not a long term solution. Hindsight says I should have been mostly in S&P 500 many years ago. Seems like we may have to give up performance to get stability. I wish I had suggestions. nob -- Since you ask, I suggest you might read my book, which delves deeply into trading/investing low volatility. I'm working on a couple of small but important revisions right now. I can message you the revisions, if you are interested in reading. Thank you for the reply mentioning your interest. So far, the best performing ETF classified as Low volatility that I have found in FDLO. But as I mentioned it has a lean trade volume. I could have considerable amounts in this area and would like a larger trading volume with similar performance. I have done considerable comparisons of FDLO against a pure S&P 500 mutual fund which is more volatile and has somewhat better performance. However, I am trying to get candidates that do, say 11-12% annually compounded with less volatility than the S&P 500.
I would like to see a message here on your book and on trading/investing low volatility.
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Post by judger on Jun 14, 2023 20:26:41 GMT
judger , I don’t know if you can have low volatility and realistic performance whatever that means to you. Both VOO and VTI can swing down or up 20%+ but few funds can beat their performance long term. Maybe decide on what average performance you might need with some slop. Then match what down drafts you can stomach. Nothing guarantees those numbers will hold in the future though. We use a combination of VTI, a muni fund and cash to control volatility and overall performance in a taxable account. steelpony, thank you for your suggestions. I am trying to get away from many choices and to limit them to just a few like the S&P 500 and low volatility choices. I am concerned that should I get out of the investment manage loop that the family will be at a loss to handle, reinvest, etc. More or less trying to follow the famous Warren Buffett advice for less sophisticated investors with a twist of low volatility tossed in. |
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Post by judger on Jun 14, 2023 20:32:04 GMT
Themes / factors work until they get overcrowded and priced away to be effective long term solutions. I started investing in USMV prior to 2017 and then started selling it in 2020 June to move to higher beta. I still own 1% of PV in USMV (tax handcuffs). I would be interested in low volatility OEFs or active ETFs you may find that are similar or superior in performance to FDLO. I tried a bit of USMV and others a while back and found them inconsistent. I rely heavily on performance comparisons in the likes of Stock Charts. I had narrowed my preferred investment choices to a S&P 500 mutual fund, FDLO and LGLV. Lately LGLV is falling behind and I am actively taking it out of the portfolios. But I would really like to have a few more good choices like FDLO to diversify the low volatility component. |
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Post by judger on Jun 14, 2023 20:48:00 GMT
I am getting on in age and have decided to quit or at least slow the pursuit of performance and reorient the portfolio for stability and so others might have more success in managing. I am looking primarily at S&P 500 variations and low volatility mutual funds and/or ETF's. I have found FDLO in low volatility but it is pretty thin for trades and sometimes performance. I have excluded SPLV and USMV and am eliminating LGLV due to performance. Is anyone interested in this area and have any suggestions for long term commitments?
Thank you.
I am a retired and a conservative investor who is more interested in preserving capital than seeking return on capital in the current market environment. Or, as another poster stated a while ago, " I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution". Hence, besides having a significant amount of my portfolio invested in MM and CDs at this time, I am also invested in these low volatility OEFs: YTD 3 YR 5 YR Std DevFMSDX 5.9% 8.8% 8.7% 11.4 JHQAX* 11.8 8.8 7.8 8.5 BLNDX/REMIX 5.0 14.4 - 9.7 PVCMX 4.7 6.3 - 4.8 * Available at Fidelity "load waived" and NTF. Good luck. Fred Fred, I am in pretty much the same boat as you. Unfortunately, I have a bunch of investments that I need to trim in order to get there.
I compared your JHQAX suggestion, a large brokerage S&P 500 choice and FDLO using StockCharts.com and their 1 year returns were 15.4%, 18.9% and 14.7% respectively. May I suggest that you also take a look at FDLO.
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Post by judger on Jun 14, 2023 20:52:58 GMT
richardsok what is the name of your book, is it available on Amazon? Thanks MEMOS From The STOCKTRADER'S NOTEBOOK. Yes, it's on Amazon. If you do get it, let me know so I can message you the updated revision patches I'm working on. Couldn't find that book on Amazon.  |
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Post by steelpony10 on Jun 14, 2023 21:06:45 GMT
judger , I don’t know if you can have low volatility and realistic performance whatever that means to you. Both VOO and VTI can swing down or up 20%+ but few funds can beat their performance long term. Maybe decide on what average performance you might need with some slop. Then match what down drafts you can stomach. Nothing guarantees those numbers will hold in the future though. We use a combination of VTI, a muni fund and cash to control volatility and overall performance in a taxable account. steelpony, thank you for your suggestions. I am trying to get away from many choices and to limit them to just a few like the S&P 500 and low volatility choices. I am concerned that should I get out of the investment manage loop that the family will be at a loss to handle, reinvest, etc. More or less trying to follow the famous Warren Buffett advice for less sophisticated investors with a twist of low volatility tossed in. What you’re looking for is exactly why I went seeking income in excess to needs. I’m basically out of the management business and into just monitoring now. My wife will run to a financial manager to get diversified and allocated to invest the right way, lol. That person will put her on an allowance. I knew two retirees (male and female) like that. That can always be a plan I may consider for myself. I’d just have to ditch the muni fund. The TIRA will stay all income and cash if I’m the survivor though. Well Buffet’s wife will have billions in VOO and less in cash with someone from the company to watch it for her. I was a little short of the necessary resources and tools to do that. |
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Post by richardsok on Jun 14, 2023 21:45:09 GMT
MEMOS From The STOCKTRADER'S NOTEBOOK. Yes, it's on Amazon. If you do get it, let me know so I can message you the updated revision patches I'm working on. Couldn't find that book on Amazon. judger-- Should be right here ----- tinyurl.com/5c95vzw3 |
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Post by richardsok on Jun 14, 2023 21:57:54 GMT
nob -- Since you ask, I suggest you might read my book, which delves deeply into trading/investing low volatility. I'm working on a couple of small but important revisions right now. I can message you the revisions, if you are interested in reading. Thank you for the reply mentioning your interest. So far, the best performing ETF classified as Low volatility that I have found in FDLO. But as I mentioned it has a lean trade volume. I could have considerable amounts in this area and would like a larger trading volume with similar performance. I have done considerable comparisons of FDLO against a pure S&P 500 mutual fund which is more volatile and has somewhat better performance. However, I am trying to get candidates that do, say 11-12% annually compounded with less volatility than the S&P 500.
I would like to see a message here on your book and on trading/investing low volatility.
Judger: I am right with you on goals. I have posted elsewhere I want to see my gains and income greatly exceed my income for the rest of my life. I do not use FDLO or any other "low volatility" style ETF. Reasons are discussed in the book. In the briefest thumbnail form, the best I can do is quote from the Introduction. A great deal more information is on the Amazon page. Finally, we debated the book thoroughly back around February. It wouldn't do to exhume those conversations here -- but you can find the back-and-forth in past threads. MEMOS from the Stock Trader's Notebook A new and original approach to improved stock market performance; a personal journey to enhanced investment results. MEMOS is written for the shrewd investor intent on building wealth while tightly limiting risk. This method will show you how you can change your attitude about investment decisions, how to structure your stock charts more effectively and how to decide to make a trade. In simplest language possible, we specify what to watch, when to act, and why.
MEMOS starts with some theory and market observations, then proceeds into a street-smart discipline focused on market-beating profits and controlled loss. No options, day-trading or sophisticated trading instruments involved. The method is neither complicated nor difficult for the private investor to execute and is certainly simple to test and trade. I believe it can work for you. It has worked for me. There's little here on general investing or long term saving themes; this is a
tactical book – for the flinty-eyed trader who expects superior results.
As new risks of market turmoil emerge, the great bull market trends that were interrupted from time to time by a couple of fearful panics is fading into history. There will be new risks and more surprises..... and more opportunities to exploit, but maybe not with the dated popular investment theories of the past.... and certainly not if the stern lessons we should have learned in recent years are forgotten. Looking forward, we may not be able to count on the Fed to rescue us from economic calamities or from the follies of political leaders often unfit for their responsibilities.
Today's savvy investor, deluged by constant news headlines, may succeed with a different kind of focused clarity to make timely tactical choices. But it's your choice. Learn the method. Test the tactics. And decide for yourself.
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Post by fred495 on Jun 14, 2023 23:26:57 GMT
I am a retired and a conservative investor who is more interested in preserving capital than seeking return on capital in the current market environment. Or, as another poster stated a while ago, " I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution". Hence, besides having a significant amount of my portfolio invested in MM and CDs at this time, I am also invested in these low volatility OEFs: YTD 3 YR 5 YR Std DevFMSDX 5.9% 8.8% 8.7% 11.4 JHQAX* 11.8 8.8 7.8 8.5 BLNDX/REMIX 5.0 14.4 - 9.7 PVCMX 4.7 6.3 - 4.8 * Available at Fidelity "load waived" and NTF. Good luck. Fred Fred, I am in pretty much the same boat as you. Unfortunately, I have a bunch of investments that I need to trim in order to get there.
I compared your JHQAX suggestion, a large brokerage S&P 500 choice and FDLO using StockCharts.com and their 1 year returns were 15.4%, 18.9% and 14.7% respectively. May I suggest that you also take a look at FDLO.
Sorry, judger, but FDLO is a little too volatile for my comfort level. Comparing FDLO to JHQAX and multi-asset fund BLNDX (start date January 2020), I get the following results for the period January 2020 to May 2023 using Portfolio Visualizer: CAGR* Max Draw Down Std Dev Sharpe SortinoJHQAX 7.7% -14.1% 8.9% 0.74 1.11 FDLO 7.7 -19.9 18.2 0.43 0.65 BLNDX 12.3 -5.3 9.9 1.09 2.22 * CAGR = Compound annualized growth rate. While BLNDX may not fit your selection criteria, but during its 3+ year existence it has exhibited an excellent risk/reward profile, especially during a period of extreme market volatility. For example, in 2022 it actually gained 3.7%, whereas JHQAX lost 8.3% and FDLO 10.4%. For the time being, I will continue holding these fairly low volatility funds. As I said, I like to err on the side of caution and also sleep well at night. Good luck in your search. If you come across any promising low volatility funds, I hope you don't mind sharing them with us. Fred |
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Post by anitya on Jun 15, 2023 2:46:02 GMT
My mention of my ownership of USMV is not to recommend USMV - just the opposite.
During normal, non-event times I am fine using SPY or QQQ and do not need a lower volatility widget if that widget is going to be behaving the same as or worse than SPY or QQQ during stressed time. In that sense, I would favor a widget actively managed by someone who has shown in the past to minimize losses when the market is stressed. Yes, that would require market timing on the part of the manager. Many market timing funds did not do all that well during 2022. But i am open to checking out any recommendations.
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Post by roi2020 on Jun 15, 2023 3:34:35 GMT
Bear in mind that low-vol funds are inherently factor funds.
Factors will cycle into and out of favor at various times. Maximum drawdown/drawdown recovery are better risk measures than standard deviation in my opinion.
Another approach for mitigating downside risk is adhering to an asset allocation which aligns with your risk tolerance.
Short and intermediate-term Treasuries often act as good diversifiers during stock market corrections/bear markets.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2023 3:53:58 GMT
richardsok , I bought a electronic copy from Amazon. yesterday at 8:20pm jovan said: richardsok what is the name of your book, is it available on Amazon? Thanks MEMOS From The STOCKTRADER'S NOTEBOOK. Yes, it's on Amazon. If you do get it, let me know so I can message you the updated revision patches I'm working on.
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Post by saratoga on Jun 15, 2023 4:07:33 GMT
I try to get stable but decent return in my tax deferred account. RMDs from this source plus pension and social security are my retirement budget.
I mix PRWCX and (TIAA Traditional/TIAA Real Estate) in roughly 3:1 proportion there. These products are not available to everyone but they just suit my needs.
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Post by Norbert on Jun 15, 2023 5:33:35 GMT
Now you've motivated me to stop dawdling and finish the revision patches. (There are two of them.) I'll get them done in a couple of days and message them right out to you. nob: Just messaged updated revisions to you. Yahoo! appears to be changing their charting technology on some browsers (taking a perfectly good system and making it inferior!) I have had to change my chart set-up instructions. Since the book came out and I focused strongly on the method, my PV has been averaging 1.3% growth / month. Of course, another real test will come when mkt turns firmly bearish again -- or highly volatile. As you see, I've had a long time to tinker and have greatly revised what DVolT funds & stocks to trade. With all due respect, I continue to think that it's extremely challenging to devise a system that consistently beats the market. You will recall that I purchased your book; and that my computer-assisted backtests of the initial version of your system (using only your recommended ETFs) were not successful.
I entertain no doubts about your personal investing / trading skills or about your anecdotal trading record. Am just skeptical that others can succeed based on what's offered in a book. I suspect that your qualitative skills are not easily transferable to novice traders.
It's also worth noting that NONE of the various publicly available low-vol or quant funds have succeeded over time. But, this is not to say that guys like Nassim Taleb couldn't beat the market. He did. He's a math genius who was able take advantage of opportunities in the derivatives market. He was definitely not relying on technical indicators on Yahoo.
N.
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Post by chang on Jun 15, 2023 6:17:25 GMT
I don’t really know what a “low volatility fund” is, other than having heard the nomenclature.
Is this a fund with the same upside potential as some benchmark, but a reduced downside risk? I assume so. Because if the upside and downside risk were both lower — say 80% of its benchmark — then instead of buying $100 of the fund, you could just buy $80 of the benchmark index, probably at a lower cost, and have $20 left over to invest in a money market.
I’m just naturally suspicious of any free lunch in investing.
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Post by Norbert on Jun 15, 2023 8:30:59 GMT
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Post by racqueteer on Jun 15, 2023 10:43:57 GMT
It's also worth noting that NONE of the various publicly available low-vol or quant funds have succeeded over time. It's only fair to point out that this would only be relevant to a 'buy and hold' strategy; not to one focused on trading. Such funds might very well lend themselves to trading at fortuitous times during a cycle, for example. My suspicion is that many good trading vehicles might very well be poor performers "over time". |
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Post by chang on Jun 15, 2023 11:07:15 GMT
It's also worth noting that NONE of the various publicly available low-vol or quant funds have succeeded over time. It's only fair to point out that this would only be relevant to a 'buy and hold' strategy; not to one focused on trading. Such funds might very well lend themselves to trading at fortuitous times during a cycle, for example. My suspicion is that many good trading vehicles might very well be poor performers "over time". Quite right, *however* the quant funds that I can recall failing spectacularly (WAGFX, TEAMX, etc.) advertised themselves, if I recall correctly, as long-term holds which adapt to market conditions and provide a superior return over full market cycle(s). Hence, IMO most of them *have* failed. |
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Post by Norbert on Jun 15, 2023 11:18:59 GMT
It's also worth noting that NONE of the various publicly available low-vol or quant funds have succeeded over time. It's only fair to point out that this would only be relevant to a 'buy and hold' strategy; not to one focused on trading. Such funds might very well lend themselves to trading at fortuitous times during a cycle, for example. My suspicion is that many good trading vehicles might very well be poor performers "over time". I don't think so. Most of these funds are black boxes. We don't know what the managers will do next. For trading purposes I want easily understood funds. An example is "SH", which is the inverse of the S&P 500; if I think the market will crater, I'll go here. Not to a mostly unpredictable quant or low vol fund. uncleharley had shown us how it's done. |
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