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Post by richardsok on Jul 14, 2023 17:58:45 GMT
richardsok , uncleharley , yogibearbull , It is likely a slow day toady and I was hoping you would not mind my bothering you. 2022 was a good year for Value equities. Growth equity has had a great 13-14 years, except for 2022. Looking at VTV:SPY over the past 20 years, the weekly chart is consistently below the 200 MA, except for a couple of years. So, I was wondering if there is any benefit to allocating now to Value equity as a long term hold vs just putting money into SPY (blend) if I do not want to allocate more to QQQ (growth per se)? Could you please opine if we are back to the pre-2022 trend in Growth over Value or are you anticipating a regime shift to Value? Value vs growth ahead? Truth is, I don't have a clue, ani -- and if I did, I wouldn't advise anyone to be so foolish as to heed my nothing-based opinions other than, perhaps, as contrary indicators. With QQQ maintaining its steadily bullish technicals and me loading up on beaten-down preferreds, I haven't had much call for trading equities lately (other than what I already hold). We seem to be closer to the end of interest-rate hikes than to the beginning. I also note the dollar is weakening against major currencies. Not too long ago the dollar was flirting with par against the pound. Now it's around 1.30. (Caused by hordes of American tourists this summer?) Deficit spending accelerating. Bank earnings out of the gate look better than expected. I keep reading the Chinese economy is faltering but don't see much to invest in as a result, other than to generally avoid shipping. I can't make much sense out of commodities, and never could. For a mix of equity & income, I might continue to lighten PDI for gains and move more toward PGP as it is behaving frisky. I won't go ENTIRELY out of PDI, though. Other assets that interest me are mentioned in past posts -- won't re-hash here. Lastly, so long as QQQ churns upward, I'll just keep a position in it or similar funds -- always with a bias toward good dividend payers. Until events wrench us out of our present course, and bend my indicators, I'll probably lurk here as much for character study as for investing -- like being surprised to see K pointlessly snarl at one of our most eminent & respected contributors.... after he put up a perfectly thoughtful and intelligent post. SUCH bliss not to be in the cross-hairs, for once.
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Post by Karen on Jul 14, 2023 18:07:04 GMT
richardsok You stated: "---like being surprised to see K pointlessly snarl at one of our most eminent & respected contributors.... after he put up a perfectly thoughtful and intelligent post." Who is "K" and to what thread are you referring?
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Post by richardsok on Jul 14, 2023 18:16:10 GMT
Ani --
In reading over my post, I think it makes me sound more sanguine than I really am. If everyone already knows that interest-rate hikes are near their end, then the value of that knowledge is pretty near nil. What a lot of small investors don't appreciate is how tight money is becoming. I paste in this quote from Barron's:
",,,,Global M2 money supply, which consists of cash in checking and savings accounts as well as money-market-fund assets, is flat year over year after having dropped about 5% in 2022, according to Morgan Stanley. That’s because central banks have raised rates by selling assets, which means they’re sucking cash out of the banking system, reducing the amount of money available to be lent and spent. Ultimately, it means traders and portfolio managers will have less money on hand, so they’ll have to be more prudent in buying stocks."
"Given the historically tight correlation between M2 and the S&P 500, the index should theoretically be somewhere between 3700 and 3800, according to Morgan Stanley, which represents about a 15% drop from here."
My conclusion: continue to heed broad market technicals and, in one bucket, to hold good quality low-volatility preferreds funds.... and load up more if/when market slips. Nothing would please me more than to have (at my age) a broad portfolio yielding a long-term, fully earned 9 or 10%.
Leave that in place for my heirs who know nothing about investing.
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Post by anitya on Jul 14, 2023 19:48:24 GMT
richardsok , Thanks. I use the Ignore button liberally and skip over a lot of threads and so I bypass a lot of acrimony, if exists, in the forum. It is easy enough to display (unblock) posts in the threads of interest.
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Post by anitya on Jul 14, 2023 23:33:31 GMT
5-6 weeks ago I said - I do not have any plans to sell any SCHD I already bought prior to 2022.
I sold half of those this week and bought MOAT and CGDV. Still keeping the money in the Value bucket - not from a style box sense but from a methodology perspective. I have not decided what I will do with the remaining SCHD. Unless it shows some promise, likely will roll it into the same MOAT or CGDV so I have one fewer funds.
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Post by newtecher on Jul 14, 2023 23:46:04 GMT
5-6 weeks ago I said - I do not have any plans to sell any SCHD I already bought prior to 2022. I sold half of those this week and bought MOAT and CGDV. Still keeping the money in the Value bucket - not from a style box sense but from a methodology perspective. I have not decided what I will do with the remaining SCHD. Unless it shows some promise, likely will roll it into the same MOAT or CGDV so I have one fewer funds. If you like value as methodology, then selling after 6 months of underperformance is the wrong thing to do. SCHD is a good value portfolio and, arguably, you just sold to buy something something less discounted.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jul 15, 2023 3:34:30 GMT
Ironically (or interestingly) I just started a position in SCHD. As a measure of diversification added SCHY as well.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 15, 2023 11:50:50 GMT
Thanks for the insight. I've held past the point of selling consideration. If I didn't own it I'd probably buy as Chang suggests. @axe ,...Hi Interesting to me is a fund that is value themed but a touch of growth in the holdings, such as Vanguards Divy Growth Fund, VIG. VIG is slowly moving to new recent-chart highs, and better gains than SCHD. My gut tells me that, since SCHD is primarily a high dividend themed fund, that the competition from Money Market Funds, treasuries of all durations, and short term corp bond funds, each with yields above 4%, causes investors to say: "Why go to SCHD now, when I can get risk-free, the same or slightly better return." A real headwind. Of course, if rates fall (maybe 6 months from now), or whenever, there may be a strong rush to high divy stocks...and SCHD goes up nicely. Disclosure: I own both. R48 Make sense to me. Looking at this chart comparing SCHD, VIG, and IVW (LC Growth) ...
(click to enlarge)
... we see a pattern of these ETFs taking turns in the lead. SCHD held up nicely last year; now it's VIG and IVW which are recovering and showing stronger short-term momentum.
It takes a better momentum trader than I to time any switches profitably.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 15, 2023 16:15:53 GMT
@axe ,...Hi Interesting to me is a fund that is value themed but a touch of growth in the holdings, such as Vanguards Divy Growth Fund, VIG. VIG is slowly moving to new recent-chart highs, and better gains than SCHD. My gut tells me that, since SCHD is primarily a high dividend themed fund, that the competition from Money Market Funds, treasuries of all durations, and short term corp bond funds, each with yields above 4%, causes investors to say: "Why go to SCHD now, when I can get risk-free, the same or slightly better return." A real headwind. Of course, if rates fall (maybe 6 months from now), or whenever, there may be a strong rush to high divy stocks...and SCHD goes up nicely. Disclosure: I own both. R48 Make sense to me. Looking at this chart comparing SCHD, VIG, and IVW (LC Growth) ...
(click to enlarge)
... we see a pattern of these ETFs taking turns in the lead. SCHD held up nicely last year; now it's VIG and IVW which are recovering and showing stronger short-term momentum.
It takes a better momentum trader than I to time any switches profitably.
Yes, perhaps difficult to make "switches". But one can use momentum to their advantage by targeting where they reinvest dividends or otherwise place new savings. Like, one should have been adding to VIG just based on momentum last six months; and with inflation higher, realizing that VIG will better keep up with price rises as the underlying holdings have pricing power, to be growing dividends. BTW I tend not to reinvest dividends unless discount buys exist. I accumulate and periodically add back in, selecting certain funds for reinvestment. Funds have to earn-it--momentum being a major factor. R48
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Post by Broozer on Jul 28, 2023 15:44:45 GMT
I have held it a long time and will continue. Who knows what the next darling is. Bingo. I've had it since I retired two years ago for the divvies, don't pay a lot of attention to the price.
I've never chased what I think will be the next hot sector anyway.
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Post by bigseal on Jul 28, 2023 21:40:00 GMT
Just own VOO. Well diversified and super low ER.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2023 22:18:51 GMT
Thanks for the insight. I've held past the point of selling consideration. If I didn't own it I'd probably buy as Chang suggests. I am glad I held SCHD. Nice 2 month recovery. Thanks to those who suggested I hold.
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