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Post by chang on Feb 2, 2023 14:11:21 GMT
ZURVY scores 83 out of 100 on Validea.com. Dividend Yield is listed at 8.76%. Trading at 11.7x cash flow. Scores for Value = 74, Quality = 62, Momentum = 87. TRV has a better overall scores at 99 out of 100. TRV dividend yield is only 1.95% but trades at 10.5x cash flow. Not that much on it out of my corner. TipRanks 7. Merrill L: Neutral. EPS 3.53 My tech signals: neutral News: Facing $250mln Forex Headwind into 4Q richardsok: are you referring to TRV or ZURVY?
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Post by richardsok on Feb 2, 2023 14:50:16 GMT
Not that much on it out of my corner. TipRanks 7. Merrill L: Neutral. EPS 3.53 My tech signals: neutral News: Facing $250mln Forex Headwind into 4Q richardsok : are you referring to TRV or ZURVY? With the crude tools I use, TRV looks like a big steaming bowl of weird. TipRanks score: 2 (poor) Merrill L: Neutral EPS 13.69 Projected EPS 16.68 (seems to contradict TipR & ML) Significant insider selling. Tech signals: too volatile to track reliably
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Post by chang on Feb 10, 2023 10:31:48 GMT
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Post by mnfish on Feb 14, 2023 12:21:18 GMT
From an article in Reuters -
Australia's iron ore giants BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are set to report a steep drop in their earnings, which is set to compress their payouts to shareholders, after China's COVID lockdown drove down iron ore prices.
Earnings at Rio Tinto and BHP Group are seen declining 48% and 28%, respectively, for the six months to December 2022
Average realised prices for iron ore fell sharply in the six months to December, hitting earnings.
Dividend payouts are expected to fall, undermined by the weaker earnings and a push by the major diversified miners to fund growth, be it through building their own projects or through acquisitions, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.
The miners are expected to offer a mixed outlook for 2023, amid uncertainty over the strength of China's recovery following the lifting of its strict COVID-19 curbs.
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Post by chang on Feb 14, 2023 12:32:43 GMT
Thanks mnfish for that bad news RIO is up about 0.4% today in London, so I assume whatever news there is is already baked in.
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Post by graust on Feb 14, 2023 12:53:52 GMT
changChang, Have you thought about buying any of the big 5 Canadian banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange? RY, BNS, TD, BMO, CM are the US tickers; they generally have high 3%-5% yields plus grow the dividend at mid-to-high single digits in recent years. If interested in other Canadian names, there are BCE, TU, and others. Canada stocks offer several “yieldy” investments, and many pay monthly. Not sure if this tweaks your interests at all. I don’t think this was listed in your holdings, but there is French Total Energy that is trying to grow its sustainable/green energy production as well as carbon-based. Also Siemens, Koninklijke Philips, and Sony (the latter has a very low dividend yield). No opinion on their stock prospects necessarily, but just some more ideas to consider.
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Post by chang on Feb 14, 2023 13:22:12 GMT
chang Chang, Have you thought about buying any of the big 5 Canadian banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange? RY, BNS, TD, BMO, CM are the US tickers; they generally have high 3%-5% yields plus grow the dividend at mid-to-high single digits in recent years. If interested in other Canadian names, there are BCE, TU, and others. Canada stocks offer several “yieldy” investments, and many pay monthly. Not sure if this tweaks your interests at all. I don’t think this was listed in your holdings, but there is French Total Energy that is trying to grow its sustainable/green energy production as well as carbon-based. Also Siemens, Koninklijke Philips, and Sony (the latter has a very low dividend yield). No opinion on their stock prospects necessarily, but just some more ideas to consider. Thanks graust for the reminder. I have looked at these before, mainly because I own FICDX in an IRA. I will review these again and see if it might be tempting to add some individual shares of one. By the way, I do own TTE (actually TTE.PA).
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Post by graust on Feb 14, 2023 13:50:54 GMT
changChang, sorry about missing Total….there are also ASML, the Dutch semiconductor company that’s listed on NYSE and Dutch exchange maybe? And TSM (Taiwan Semi) is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, if you are willing to brave the geopolitical risk (I own the NYSE listings of both). Lower income but very high dividend growth in recent years.
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Post by chang on Feb 14, 2023 15:28:26 GMT
graust I've looked at ASML before; I think my interest was limited because the dividend is low ( 1.53%) and their revenue is highly dependent on a couple of large customers (if I recall correctly). I see that FICDX's top two holdings are banks. It might be interesting to seek out a different bank, e.g., Bank of Montreal or Bank of Nova Scotia. TOP TEN HOLDINGS Royal Bank of Canada $ 73,559,468 8.3% The Toronto-Dominion Bank $ 71,424,503 8.1% Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. $ 58,770,346 6.7% Alimentation Couche-Tard, Inc. $ 46,088,331 5.2% Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. $ 45,252,718 5.1% Suncor Energy, Inc. $ 39,371,891 4.5% Franco-Nevada Corp. $ 36,655,002 4.2% Constellation Software, Inc. $ 31,693,787 3.6% Nutrien Ltd. $ 30,055,145 3.4% Canadian National Railway Co. $ 27,327,357 3.1%
Top Ten Holdings Total: $460,198,550 52.1%
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Post by chang on Feb 15, 2023 11:15:27 GMT
BMO / BMO.TO is looking really interesting to me. A couple of pages that might interest anyone who is interested: www.suredividend.com/canadian-bank-stocks/dividendearner.com/best-canadian-bank-stocks/BMO seems to have the best P/E-yield combination, as well as other qualitiative attributes. I wish I had a better grip on USD/CAD movements. A few years ago I added FICDX to my IRA because I expected a weakening dollar. I could not have been more wrong. Curiously, the investment (FICDX) actually did not fare too badly, perhaps in spite of a strengthening USD. Every F/X trend that I have predicted has been exactly wrong, so I basically ignore F/X exposures for the moment. The most important one (to me) - USD/EUR - has totally puzzled me, so I maintain bith exposures and don't worry about it. Still, if someone smarter than me has a view on the CAD, I for one would be interested. richardsok uncleharley I have always appreciate your stock/chart-specific feedback, so if you have a view on BMO I'd be pleased to hear it.
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Post by richardsok on Feb 15, 2023 13:16:37 GMT
BMO
TipRanks: 10/10 (highest ranking) Analyst consensus: mixed EPS 14.88 Projected EPS 14.22 Div 4.2% ROE 21% PE 6.8 Technicals: solidly bullish, but nearing previous resistance. =========== Contradictions: Merrill Lyn website calls it a "Buy" but finviz reports Merrill downgraded it to Neutral Dec 2022. Am apt to believe Merrill's own website, but there's no telling how old the rating is. Future earnings projected slightly lower, implying some headwinds but nothing to wail about. How I'd play it: buy it here and juice the 4% dividend by selling the Sept 110 calls for an added 3%. IF called away from you, netting 16% gain in seven months.
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Post by chang on Feb 15, 2023 13:35:10 GMT
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Post by johnsmith on Feb 16, 2023 22:23:40 GMT
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Post by chang on Mar 15, 2023 8:14:35 GMT
Zurich (ZURN.SW on the Swiss exchange) has given up some ground lately … I’m watching it. I’m thinking of a buy at CHF 400. Anybody think that makes sense?
(The US ADR is ZURVY but I would be buying ZURN.SW.)
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Post by johnsmith on Mar 15, 2023 10:57:51 GMT
I have no experience with insurers and bad experience with banks; otherwise I would have taken a gander.
I don't invest in banks because
- the risks are hidden. - even from their Reports, it's hard to say where the risk lies. - a lot is dependent on good management.
My guess is that insurers are probably the same as it all comes down to the risk they are taking and whether they are pricing that risk correctly.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2023 11:53:08 GMT
Zurich (ZURN.SW on the Swiss exchange) has given up some ground lately … I’m watching it. I’m thinking of a buy at CHF 400. Anybody think that makes sense? (The US ADR is ZURVY but I would be buying ZURN.SW.) I'd wait for the dust to settle on Credit Suisse before considering any other Swiss financial company.
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Post by chang on Mar 15, 2023 13:08:42 GMT
Zurich (ZURN.SW on the Swiss exchange) has given up some ground lately … I’m watching it. I’m thinking of a buy at CHF 400. Anybody think that makes sense? (The US ADR is ZURVY but I would be buying ZURN.SW.) I'd wait for the dust to settle on Credit Suisse before considering any other Swiss financial company. Very reasonable suggestion. Incidentally I also own UBS, and a sitting on a small profit. I’m not sure whether UBS would be hurt or helped by a CS meltdown. Any thoughts? EDIT: Well, Zurich just dropped through CHF 400, and UBS is getting hammered.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 15, 2023 13:15:17 GMT
I am using the Cockroach theory to guide my current decisions. JMHO!
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Post by anitya on Jun 9, 2023 20:35:14 GMT
Any thoughts on the following as to large cap developed foreign vs US. (I chose large cap so they have access to the same markets irrespective of domicile.)
I noticed that within the same sub-industry, developed foreign tends to have a better dividend to P ratios (D/P). Is the difference mostly explained by difference in buy-backs which tend to be higher in the US vs developed foreign companies? OR Is there something more fundamental to resist mean reversion (to eliminate the difference between developed foreign vs US)?
(Many foreign companies explored having (or changing) their primary stock market listing on the US stock exchange to get better stock price multiples.)
I am asking the above to see if I should increase my foreign equity allocation which is extremely low at 2% (including 1% in China).
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 10, 2023 11:31:44 GMT
Europe/Old World has higher preference for dividends and income than the gung-ho equity culture of the US/New World. Even among the investors, equity allocations are much higher in the US than elsewhere.
If you are thinking of Arm/SFTBY, it went for the US listing due to higher liquidity of the US markets, and recent poor IPO experiences in the UK (i.e. worse than the US where IPOs are also in the dumps). The UK pushed for a UK listing, and offered Masa Son lots of inducements, but those weren't enough. A secondary listing in the UK may still happen.
Multiple listing are expensive and headaches due different accounting rules and other regulations. There are many big companies in Europe and Asia that never listed in the US, and exist only as ADRs in the US or on the US Pink Sheets/OTC. Of course, China has been unique in that hundreds of Chinese companies have only the US listings (but no Mainland or HK listing) through a twisted financial mechanism. We know how that is going.
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Post by anitya on Jun 10, 2023 20:08:53 GMT
yogibearbull, Thanks, Yogi. I did not know Arm went public - shame on me. I know about foreign companies’ desire to make their primary listing in the US because I worked on that activity 25 yrs ago as a consultant. Yes, US and non-US multiple listing is a royal pain and is not very popular with the C suite. From your first paragraph, I am assuming you do not expect P / Shareholder yield to converge between foreign and the US. Paying more Div rather than using cash to buy back forces management to be more disciplined. In that sense, I like foreign Co investment but if there is not a higher probability of cap gains from foreign Co investment, may be I wait until I get out of CA to increase foreign allocation. Thanks.
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Post by anitya on Jun 12, 2023 19:29:21 GMT
yogibearbull , Thanks, Yogi. I did not know Arm went public - shame on me. I know about foreign companies’ desire to make their primary listing in the US because I worked on that activity 25 yrs ago as a consultant. Yes, US and non-US multiple listing is a royal pain and is not very popular with the C suite. From your first paragraph, I am assuming you do not expect P / Shareholder yield to converge between foreign and the US. Paying more Div rather than using cash to buy back forces management to be more disciplined. In that sense, I like foreign Co investment but if there is not a higher probability of cap gains from foreign Co investment, may be I wait until I get out of CA to increase foreign allocation. Thanks. What I meant was I did not know Arm went public in the US. I checked and it is still not listed in the US. I misunderstood Yogi’s post. Of course, I did not know that Arm wanted to go public in the US instead, which makes sense. I knew it went public when the NVidia deal fell thru and Masa San and Arm wanted liquidity for its stock.
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Post by chang on Jul 20, 2023 17:01:51 GMT
I still own all the stocks mentioned in the OP, plus one more — British American Tobacco — and on the whole they’ve done well. Especially the oil companies. ING was a good buy. Novartis has perked up a bit, especially since I added a little while back. Rio is volatile, as expected, but that dividend…
The only real stinker has been Nestle. Anyone know why it’s been a rotten stock? Maybe competition from generic brands that every supermarket seems to have now. But I know it’s a safe, mega blue chip, easy to hold forever, even when it smells like a rotten egg.
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Post by anitya on Jul 25, 2023 19:46:52 GMT
chang, Fearchar, (and anybody else that owns BTI) I know both of you own BTI and it has rallied over the past one month. After the rally, both BTI and MO yield about the same. It seems BTI is still trading at a discount to MO. My question is why does BTI, for a European company, yield the same as MO? In other words, do you mind sharing why you prefer BTI over MO? Thanks.
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Post by Fearchar on Jul 26, 2023 0:51:39 GMT
anitya , BTI bought Reynolds a few years ago, so it does have a share of the American market for what that's worth. Forward P/E for BTI is 6.4 vs 7.9 for MO according to Morningstar. Seeking Alpha says forward P/E for BTI is 7.98 vs 9.17 for MO. However, the market appears to be pricing these at just about the same forward dividend of just over 8%. I think that makes sense considering how similar these companies are. My reason for buying BTI was that most analyst were favoring it at the time (~ 1 year ago). That is still true: BTI MO Seeking Alpha Buy (4.26) Buy (3.76) Wall Street Strong Buy (4.76) Hold (3.38) Quant Hold (3.18) Hold (3.19)
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Post by anitya on Jul 26, 2023 3:49:08 GMT
Thanks, Fearchar , I looked at the valuation metrics and BTI indeed looked undervalued relative to MO but what stumped me is BTI dividend yield is the same as MO. I expect American companies to be overvalued relative to European companies not directly listed on a US exchange and thus to have a lower dividend yield. But may be the total debt ($43B for BTI vs $25B for MO) servicing is driving BTI's inability to pay more dividends. BTI 1 yr chart looks like a falling knife but MO 1 yr chart stuck in a channel is not inspiring as well but appears to promise more hope. richardsok , If you have to pick BTI or MO, which one would you pick? If you do not have to pick either, would you walk?
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Post by chang on Jul 26, 2023 17:05:10 GMT
chang , Fearchar , (and anybody else that owns BTI) I know both of you own BTI and it has rallied over the past one month. After the rally, both BTI and MO yield about the same. It seems BTI is still trading at a discount to MO. My question is why does BTI, for a European company, yield the same as MO? In other words, do you mind sharing why you prefer BTI over MO? Thanks. Sorry I'm not much help. I was only screening for foreign stocks that I could hold in a European account. In terms of tobacco, only BATS and Imperial Brands crossed my radar. A lot of "value" funds have love for Imperial Brands, but I went with BAT based on stability, branding, safety of dividend, etc. I use the Fidelity analysis tool a lot, I would compare BTI to MO there.
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Post by anitya on Jul 26, 2023 20:30:34 GMT
I took a starter trading position in MO. I am always leery about super high dividend payers. For example, I bought Kohl's (KSS) at $22 when I thought it was cheap and yielding 9%. It went on to make new lows at $17. Thankfully, the management did not cut the dividends. It was more of a real estate rather than a retail play for me. Very high dividend payers are very risky not just from the underlying business point of view but also from a market sentiment point of view and the type of investors they attract.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 26, 2023 20:43:24 GMT
I took a starter trading position in MO. I am always leery about super high dividend payers. For example, I bought Kohl's (KSS) at $22 when I thought it was cheap and yielding 9%. It went on to make new lows at $17. Thankfully, the management did not cut the dividends. It was more of a real estate rather than a retail play for me. Very high dividend payers are very risky not just from the underlying business point of view but also from a market sentiment point of view and the type of investors they attract. KSS closed near $28 today. You're up about 25%. Not bad.
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Post by chang on Jul 26, 2023 21:01:35 GMT
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